Be kewl ...... Enjoy your flight to Gold Coast

Very strategic manouvre by TF. I think he will exit QPR soon. The

TF private plcement show that he is confident that AA share to go up within this year. Since AA hold staje in AAX , means any share price increase in AAX would increase TF net wealth value and dividend paid out by AAX would benifit TF.

AA private placement , tuneair inject fund. 744 million. To increase presence in India. Needed 20 planes before they can do international flights. Indirectly good for AAX.

3.75

If AA is provatised. Then AAX will shake up (up not out)

If they shake out, buy.

and oil price in 2016 is still lower than 2015.

thanks tonywong8, inclusive of the oil saving, expected PBT around 280 mill.

Of course if exchange rate remains constant, the movement of cost would be significantly affected by oil price. Considering AAX has hedged 52% of its oil consumption in 2016, only 48% will be affected. Again, the price of the remaining 48% does not goes up much compared to Q42015.

I did multiple linear regression using oil price and exchange rate as independent variables. Conclusion - statistically : exchange rate is more significant than oil price.

A few factors caused it - (1) oil price is hedged by AAX, so its movement is skewed. , (2) Effect of exchange rate are two - (a) Debt - $ 1.4 billion , (b) other expenses - around 700 milliom whereas effect of oil price is in the consumption of oil itself - around 300 million. Ratio of affected cost is 300 : 2100 or 1 : 7. that is any movement of exchange rate will only be equivalent by 7 times of movement of oil price.

So , sell lor .. for syndicate members nekoson and madcat to buy.... But , I advise keep because you are less emotional to chase afterward.

Forex gain (from debt) alone would be around RM 152 million. Higher PBT envisioned. Cost reduction due to better average forex around RM 80 million. Easy easy already RM 238 million. Saving due to lower price of oil (in USD) ? Anyone can compute ?

From 4.29 to 3.92 ==> 37 cents for forex gain , and reduction of other costs.

Chicken feeds eaters - nekoson , madcat and etc etc. who were desperately trying to influence the investors sell at 0.29 low price and buy at high RM 1.27 AAX price had stopped. We are the last day of 1Q2016. What is the RM/USD forex today ?

DK122 : My profit from AAX is as high as 50% and as low as loss 7% . Do i want to sell now ? No. Looking for minimum 300% profit margin.

Icon : To write blog , I went to this url

http://klse.i3investor.com/jsp/blog/blmain.jsp

I can not see the insert image button at that link.

Can you share your url ? Thank you very much.

CIMB Research wants the investors to sell at cheap AAX price and buy at expensive AAX price. It is a rent seeker eating chicken feed. We are not chicken feed taker. We stay united and fight against them. AAX TP RM 2.00.

A great game here. Buy before too late.

Hello Icon, how you insert jpeg file in your blog ? I will share an article if i know the method.

NekosAn , nekosOn and Madcat are connected with one keyword - "Cat" . "Neko" means cat in Japanese language.

Madcat : Well, I advise you - do not take all strong Tengku Razaleigh good contacts in any discussion or your identity will be exposed or you make yourself a fool. You can be either TR admirer or hater. I am a sharp shooter, sometimes my brain works better than the analytics software that I use. Now, in an attempt to save your name, you are trying to apply smoke screen tactics - cover up by saying you have bought at very low price even though you have condemned AAX since you first came in this forum one month ago. Since you have tagged my name and JJChan name since you starts to appear in this forum one month ago - my question is why you condemned AAX since one month ago if you are a shareholder of AAX !!? This baffles me . I dont shit on my eating spot.

MrPauper : Hahaha. A good advice.

Madcat is running away. His identity is exposed.

Tan Sri Khoo and Tan Sri Ananda Krisnan are strongly related to Tengku Razaleigh Hamzah. So Madcat - since those names occupy your mind, are you somehow from that team ? And I wonder if so, why that team wanted to undermine AAX.

MrPauper : 2016 would be the year of AAX. Mark my word. Mark my word.

Madcat :

AAX currently has 29 planes with a debt of RM 1.3 billion. Assuming plane cost is RM 300 million, debt can only buy 4 planes. So, the balance 25 planes must be financed by IPO. The net interest paid is RM 72 million in year 2015 (after minusing interest gained). Your information is very outdated Madcat.

By the way, Madcat - dont be bitter. You can not buy AAX at RM 0.15 per share anymore. And if you have made losses when MUI Bhd. share price reduce from RM 25 to 20 sen, you can still make profit by buying AAX at RM 0.29 with TP RM1.00. So, MUI, Astro, Maxis relates strongly to one politician in Malaysia. You are a part of that politician team ?

and let me assume the purpose of relist again for AK is that , somehow after giving high premium to Khazanah and minority shareholders, he found that he is short of money for expansion. Therefore, he needs to tap into the public coffers to finance his business, and increase his net wealth gain.

Let me know if TF behaviour is like the chokia penny counting businessman or a gentleman like AK or Robert Kuok.

Frankly speaking Madcat : privatising AAX at RM 3.00 per share is a good branding and marketing strategy.

Let me assume - maxis is delisted so that on their major shareholder Khazanah and minority shareholders could realize their investment at a profit and Ananda Krisnan is very rich such that paying a premium to other shareholders are peanut. Maxis IPO was RM5.20 and privatisation price is RM 15 per share.

I believe, if TF want to be famous , he has to privatise at RM 3.00 per share to satisfy the shareholders like what AK has done. Or else, everyone will choose Malindo to fly.

Any business can do that if they dont mind paying the cost to privatise and relist it again. And again my point - TF cant be compared to AK (even though his flights numbering do start with AK), he will be infamous if he privatise his jets at a price lower than IPO price whereas AK privatization pays a premium to Khazanah and shareholders. It is akin taking your money from your right pocket to give to the public pocket while thinking of a way to settle down nicely , handing over your business to your new generation, hoping the public will be kind to you.

Noted, will remove my comment.

Astro and maxis is something that I pondered before. The only things that stops me from researching it more is because they business expansion opportunity (at present time) is limited while competitors are creeping deeply into they industry which may take away some of their market share. So, price increase depends very much on IB or syndicates or analyst recommendation, which is not my strength. So, I prefer not to go into something that I have no control at all.

Whereas AA or AAX, their business model indicates that they could expand. AAX in 6 different countries - Malaysia, Indonesia, Australia, Thailand, Phillipines, India is equivalent to 6 times MAS or 6 times Malindo ability to expand their business. That what makes AAX interesting.

relative does not necessary means his daughter :).

Madcat : Oh ya , I forgot to say. Of all chinese businessman that I have read, Robert Kuok occupies my mind because somehow, and his relative got married to my relative though they are divorced now. But of course, he got some affection to the Malay.

Madcat : Your idea of privatization suits an entrepreneur that thinks he could not expand his business anymore and thus does not require public fund to expand his business. So what he does is to acquire all his shares and just sit down there to become a homey domesticated businessman, satisfied by what he already have.

Madcat : I welcome your comments. It helps me to start thinking about certain things which I may have overlooked. Don't lay low.

MrPauper: You are right over there.

martinbastesque : I am not pressuring myself. I am working hard to deny syndicates which use psychological tactics to gain advantage over all ikan bilis in the stock market like myself .

Madcat : If you seek some rent, look for someone else.

Madcat : If they want to challenge me, sell in the market :) I dont pay a rent seeker to make money out of thin air.

tonywong8 :

(1) TF could privatise AAX but as MrPauper has said, it will make him infamous.

(2) If AA is privatised (as the news came out today) and AAX is also privatised, then TF will lose the third pecking order of getting finance for business expansion.

(3) If AA is going to be privatised by TuneAir, TF will be short of money to privatise AAX because he will need to fork out RM 5 billion to privatise AA and additional money to privatise AAX. Since TF is having a big amount of loan, it is better for him to pay the loan before thinking to privatise AAX.

(4) If AAX is going to be privatised, its share price will move up like what AA share price has become because many people will buy big.

(5) TF net wealth will decrease if he privatise AAX. If AAX is traded in the Stock Exchange , AAX price could shoot up to RM 2.00 in a year time, and TF can start to sell at that price to pay back his huge amount of loan.

(6) Most entrepreneur will not privatise its company after listing it. Look at Jon Oringer - his net wealth is USD 1 billion, and he got that net wealth only after listing his shares on NYSE.

(7) Same as Robert Kuok - did he privatised his vehicles that made him multibillionaire. The answer is no. Because he does not want to control everything. He gives some part for other people to play a role to increase his personal net wealth.

Because of that five factors above, TF will not privatise AAX.

Madcat : I won't do that. Ask them to enter the market and I will enter the market. I don' want any additional cost to trade. And even that will not silent them. And everyday, I will remind them - due to great macro-economics , it is better for them to buy now , rather than hoping to buy at lower price and asking other people or use other people money to drop the share price. You cant manipulate others as you wish , right.

Madcat : If you take into account 8 quarterly data since March 2014, I am satisfied with 125m AAX forex gain for Q12016. But if you use 1 data , that is Dec 2015, - forex gain could be as high as around 177m.

What else ? Profit and loss statement is not only about forex gain.

I runned some other simulation using my crystal ball, R Studio programming software and Data Analysis functions of microsoft excel on AAX cost and revenue. Well , what I could expect from my analysis - The predicted and simulated trend is as such - lease cost and fuel cost could reduce per km flight. Revenue trend is increasing - These additional factors will add to that increasing trend : Delhi started in January 2016, Yangoon - Penang starts in Q1 2006, Bangkok - Lu Prabang starts in Q12016. Recent pre-paid revenue will increase due to marketing effort.

So PAT - it is highly expected that Profit After Tax would be excess of RM 200 million. I hope this is a fact in 45 days time. I am looking forward to increase my portfolio weightage on AAX.

And the hypothesis is that , there is a relationship between AAX forex gain with secondary exchange rate data. And the relationship was proven by high regression coefficient with 95% confdence level. If you want to use exact data , you will lag others who could use predictive methiod. Waiting for financial statement to come out is a lagging process.

Statistically around RM125 mil. Since we use general data, that calculation includes everything such as ticket sales in USD and etc.

Current rate around 3.99

Sorry , my mistkes. Around 30 sen. December rate was 4.29

Not necessary - today is the trend of big data and data analytics. Google it.