CIMB IB trying to push out weak holder. Now - 2 months before next financial statement. A nice time to accumulate by them. If we believe in our analysis, hold to it. If everyone can do it and be preseverence, nobody will have a chance to play with our hard earn money. We start a war against CIMB.

enough time for my loan to get approve and buy at lower price somemore

CIMB oh CIMB ....they have not got enough now they want to pull down ?

Ehh how to write that blog ya ? I may post my analysis there :)) . It would better than what Icon8888 had predicted.

Jet fuel is kerosene , one of the products of crude oil. Crude is unrefined oil while kerosene is refined crude oil. Need to add up the refining cost, such that kerosene price is around 20 USD above crude price.

In long term perspective - still worth AAX-WA. Short term view - risk is high though. Mother movement is important at this point of time. I trust AAX and AAX-WA will move. Maybe before Q12016 or after. For Q12016 Profit is almost certainty taking into account macro-economics factors. I have to repeat it - certainty. Fuel price have gone up but still much less than 2015 average. Crude futures could be any value between 30-60 USD within this year. At 60USD, shale gas will be back and any price above 60 would be short-lived. I had hoped AAX had hedged around 80% of its fuel when crude futures around USD 30 because below USD 30 was panic selling price.

Looking forward to add more AAX if price goes down.

And Tenaga is still moving. Happy ! Happy !

Added another 100k AAX at 30.5

or maybe earlier.

once Q12016 out.

Dont worry...it will soon be picking up.

around 50% actually. And thank you to TF for this.

I have been keeping AAX for around 3 months - more than 30%. Not fast enough ?

Yes, no India AAX. Flight between India and Malaysia contributes to Malaysia AAX profit.

AAX mother needs to go up to improve risk appetite on AAX-WA

POS-CU is risky because expiry is in 2 months.

Next quarter result is in around 2 months time. Would be a good result for AAX.

MC88 : I still have trust in my analysis. RM 0.30 is too cheap for AAX. It should be around RM 1.00 in a year time or even within this year if the quarterly result shows improvement compared to previous quarter or YOY.

Since AAX is travelling to USA, writing an article about AAX turnaround progress in US magazine such as Forbes, WSJ or anything alike would help AAX to find FF that would invest.

Old timer like me often state 1 lot = 1000 unit , just like the good old days.

Actually the director bought - 137,000 x 0.30 = RM 41,110.

I am still holding my AAX and AAX-WA. Sold off AirAsia and just waiting. AAX is a long term game.

AAX is a slow play. Once it explodes up, you cant catch-up.

If there is not enough seller for AAX, the price will no move up. Seller - you can sell at 0.30 sen.

Dont get me wrong there - my AAX-WA holding value is bigger than AAX.

It takes RM 7 m to move AAX by 1 cent and it takes RM 8 mill to move AAX-WA by 1 sen. Fund utilization rate better at AAX.

I think for AAX-WA to move further, AAX needs to move first.

great kappajey.... The block exists because someone is accumulating.

The genuine believer of AAX share will advise buy and keep at the moment. Because we know there is a value in it.

AAX at 0.30 is still very cheap. Where in the world you can buy 1000 shares of airline company at RM 300 ( USD 75) where the projected earning per 1000 share is RM 240 (USD 60).

Get ready your seat belt . Buyer is coming.

AAX 0.30 seller vanished was fast. Impressed ?

R'Moi : if you dont want to invest in AAX , it is ok. Let other share the profit. You wait for 2016 financial year statement, it will be too late. That is the time I will sell all my AAX share. Asta la Vista baby , I'll be back. Got better things to do tonight.

Aiyoo R'Moi : I am lazy to argue with you . This will be the last one. Anyone can download the financial statement of AAX from here

http://www.bursamalaysia.com/market/listed-companies/company-announcements/5013545

And this is the mother of all the place of all public listed company information resides.

Obviously, if you download the P&L statement, you will get that revenue in 2015 higher than revenue in 2014. So no question about total revenue gone down. It has gone up ! up ! up !.... Download and see for yourself.

And dont confuse others by using include fuel surcharge because fuel surcharge as revenue is meaningless as it is a 100% contra with fuel cost.... aiyooo why make yourself complicated. Every single cents of fuel surcharge go to the petroleum company.... that is not revenue where you can assign other cost to it....

Every single investor of AAX is happy with charter flight revenue but now we have some jokers who are not happy with charter flight revenue.... Amoi, ms, aunty, nona , nyonya - charter flight revenue is a new revenue stream and they captured market share from MAS and Garuda... you should be happy with it... Clap your hand la for this wonderful performance.

So, the revenue from the stream where cost can be charged to had been increasing whereas revenue of fuel surcharge which has no meaning because all of it is given to petroleum company is decreasing. So we have quality revenue increasing and meaningless revenue decreasing... Again clap hands for AAX management... Show your hands up dear ladies.

GP% ??? Why make yourself difficult. Calculate la operating profit margin = 114/853 = 13.36% ..Not difficult - make it easy.... you will just gain if you invest in AAX and AAX-WA. Then open table and belanja me for this excellent tips.

R'moi : Let me start with - it takes RM 180 million to push up AA and it takes RM 30 million to push up AAX for the same percentage of capital gain. So it is more effective invested in AAX and would not be so effective if institutional fund invest in AA.

Why ?

AA EPS is 17.9 cents annually. AAX (taking into account turn around Q42015 6 sen per quarter extrapolate to one year would be 24 cents annually.

AA share price RM 1.75 EPS 17.9 censts
AAX share price RM 0.30 EPS (24 cents - taking into extrapolation simulation).

Second - AAX is turnaround company of start-up. Similar with AA during early stage. So we dont look at annual basis but look at quarter basis to pick up the point where turnaround started. And indeeeddddddd turnaround started last Q4 2015.

Ok - the reference of AAX turnaround are here:-

http://www.theedgemarkets.com/en/article/aax-most-active-turnaround-prospects

http://www.thestar.com.my/business/business-news/2015/11/26/aax-sees-significant-turnaround-in-ops/

http://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/PublicInvest/92157.jsp

http://www.bfm.my/mw-mohshin-aziz-maybank-investment-bank-cheap-oil-aa-aax-investors.html

http://www.theborneopost.com/2016/01/21/aax-to-perform-better-in-2016-ceo/

http://www.thestar.com.my/business/business-news/2016/03/05/eye-on-stock-airasia-x/


Third - I dont know where you get your data reference. I got my reference from the mother of all share information - Bursa Malaysia. Ok fine, I compared YOY quarter 4 and revenue 2015 increased compared with revenue 2014.

So buy AAX stock before it fly. You still have time contra kaki are vanished , now genuine shareholder please stand up and make your presence felt.

AAX better fund utilization rate.

Madcat : My sincere advice to you. Don't attack name. Based your argument on fact and attack the recommendation or else people in this world will think that you are childish.

Madcat : It is the hedging position that AirAsia took in 2014 to protect them from having to pay higher oil price. I think they do not anticipate that oil price will move down in later part of 2014 such that it was more profitable for them to buy from spot market and accept losses in hedge. Rest assured, 2016 is straight forward. Oil has dropped 60% of its peak price. I predicted it would find its bottom this year. I think an airline like AAX hedges to prevent loss due to high oil price. Since oil has been climbing upwards, their hedge position is correct.

Suprisingly the volume last Friday was low for AAX, AAX will climb first next week. Easier for fund to push AAX than AAX-WA in the current situation.

R Moi : In term of revenue ; in 2015 - leasing is 8.9% of total revenue. flight ticket 65% of total revenue, chartered flight is around 6.4% of total revenue.

Between 2014-2015 ; leasing revenue has increased by 130% , flight ticket revenue increased by 10%, and chartered flight increased by 2650%,

Obviously AAX has found a new revenue income segment in year 2015 - Chartered flight. (1) Non-muslim may not realised that a big portion of chartered flight comes from religious organization from Malaysia and Indonesia sending muslim to Makkah to perform Hajj. This revenue is therefore, recurring revenue. , (2) Corporate segment could give chartered flight revenue to AAX by company sponsored flight for board of directors and employees to exotic destination and etc. Since this new segment is growing, it means that AAX had been snatching market share from other operators such as MAS and Garuda, through giving less cost and higher value.

In 2014, flight ticket was actually 61% of total revenue, So, in fact , flight ticket share of revenue has actually gone up by 4% in 2015. Which which revenue segment had gone down in 2015 ? Let me see - (1) fuel surcharge has gone down by RM 90 mill, ancilliary revenue has gone down by RM 20 mill and cargo has gone down by RM 7 million.

Due to this, I think AAX revenue stream is very healthy.

Effective fund utilization for AAX-WA and AAX now the same. Mother has to move in advance before son start to move.

Just to help you a bit madcat. It is clear that share price drop from Jan 2014 to Jan 2015 is caused by extra ordinary cost of fuel. Additional share price drop from Jan 2015 to Sept 2015 is caused by unfavourable exchange rate. Sept 2015 - March 2016, exchange rate has improved and fuel price has halved those in 2014. But AAX share price is still lagging this improvement. The stock market is inefficient. Those who grab the share now for medium to long term investment would benefit when the price starts to align itself to economic changes.

Once they hantam kuat-kuat , EPF will chip in to buy and push back the price up. The mother of all fund is EPF.

Additional data - exchange rate 2014 average 3.20.

Madcat :

Some data for you to do regression. Maybe you can get some insights from it. I could do it for you for some charge :)

AAX Share price :

Jan 2014 : RM 1.00 , Jan 2015 RM 0.65, Sept 2015 RM 0.20 , March 2016 RM 0.295

Exchange rate Jan 2015 - 3.50, end Sept 2015 - 4.39 ; end Dec 2015 - 4.29. Exchange rate 11th March 2016 4.07. Exchange rate end of March ?

Fuel price 2014 - average USD 120/barrel. 2015 average USD 85/barrel. 2016 average USD 60 per barrel.

Asean countries passenger load factor - Jan 2015 : 76.7% , Jan 2016 78.5%. AAX ?

I am bullish. No doubt about it.

By the way, as human, we cant avoid to argue or being confrontational. Goldenshares - I have argued about forex spot rate and averaage forex. Yongch and nekosan, they ask to sell when I own the share at 0.24 and 0.07 and 1.40, that give a hell out of me. But I stayed firm and the price got better out of it. For newbie, my advice - In your analysis you trust, and in God you put your faith in. No one can ask you to sell or buy. It is your decision - your money - your profit and your loss. I hope everyone happy making money :))

Blackeagle89 : You have the right to say anything. And Yen Leng has the right to ask anything. I am reluctant to help if I need to calculate a lot of numbers. Mental exercise could be tiring. But for asking what course to take , I ask her to find sincere person to teach. She asked my opinion, I gave the safe way to place an investment. She gave her email. I replied it here, so that someone like you could criticize or be critical about it and say it out loud. And you have to remember one thing. She make her own decision and she is responsible for her own decision. And that shows maturity. Not many people take up responsibility , and many people blame others for their own failure. If I have failed you, I apologize. Frankly, I dont know who you are. So good night and happy investing.

croc : As you can read from the announcement, when AA goes up, it was pushed by EPF. When contra players came in , EPF sold their stock. What that mean ? And EPF is the mother of all big fund.

and we know who ever is buying can make stock vanished within seconds and if they wish not to buy can make contra players cry like small kids.

with all due respect , should we all take "race" factor out of the forum. Long term AAX is very good , in between - got turbulence... so contra kaki and margin kaki - be-careful, you are being warned.