with regression coefficient = 0.88 , above (0.8 industry standard);

Using the data, with 7 degree of freedom,

Forex gain = 2.23 - 405.478 (Exchange Rate Difference) ; independent variable p-value <0.05

RM appreaciates 20 cents.

Have a look at the data given. It does not use the exact rate by AAX , it used secondary data. Have a think about it . What do you think about the trend . If you dont want to think about the data given, just say so.

if EPS = 17.6 , according to your x10 PE ; AAX price RM 1.76 ?

Icon 8888 : EPS 4.4 (quarterly expectation because based on quarter result), So if you take annual calculation would be EPS 17.6

My answer to you Madcat - I dont and it is not necessary if you are trained in statistical and analytics.

Let me repeat the data in different orientation, and just say you can see it or not.

Mar-16 Dec-15 Sep-15 Jun-15 Mar-15 Dec-14 Sep-14 Jun-14 Mar-14
Forex Gain ?? 57 -241 -28 -87 -157 -48 20 10
USD/RM 3.99 4.29 4.39 3.76 3.71 3.49 3.28 3.21 3.27
Forex Diff -0.3 -0.1 0.63 0.05 0.22 0.21 0.07 -0.06 -0.007


March 2014 - Forex Gain RM 10 million , forex difference (fd) -0.007. (negatives indicates RM appreciation)

June 2014 - Forex Gain RM 20 million , fd : -0.06

Sept 2014 - Forex Loss RM 48 million , fd : 0.07 ( positive indicates RM depreciates)

Dec 2014 - Forex loss RM 157 million , fd : 0.21

Mar 2015 - Forex loss RM 87 million , fd : 0.22

Jun 2015 - Forex loss RM 28 million , fd : 0.05

Sep 2015 - Forex loss RM 241 million , fd : 0.63

Dec 2015 - Forex gain RM 57 million , fd : - 0.1 (we start to see RM appreciates now (-tive sign)

Mac 2016 - ???? , fd : -0.3 (3x bigger appreciation compared to Dec 2015)
(as at today exchange rate)

So : expected forex gain would be around 57 x 3 = RM 171 million.

I can give linear regression equation for predictive purpose. But Madcat : what is your guess about forex gain in March 2016 for AAX ?

Looking at the trend between quarter forex difference and forex gain/loss , highly likely Aax does not apply 10% on rates

I used secondary data . Cao exchange rate given by USD/MYR forex chart. The trend is consistent and conclusive.

The data is consistent for every single quarter from March 2014 to December 2015.

We can get linear relationship between forex gain and exchange rate difference, of which the equation is Forex Gain = X*(Exchange Rate Difference) + Y. No need non-linear transformation.

I have compiled these data of AAX, originally in tabular form but somehow the paste here does not work.

Mar-16 Dec-15 Sep-15 Jun-15 Mar-15 Dec-14 Sep-14 Jun-14 Mar-14
Forex Gain ?? 57 -241 -28 -87 -157 -48 20 10
USD/RM 3.99 4.29 4.39 3.76 3.71 3.49 3.28 3.21 3.27
Forex Diff -0.3 -0.1 0.63 0.05 0.22 0.21 0.07 -0.06 -0.007


In the data table I give " ?? " for someone to guess the forex gain for AAX in 1Q 2016.

If you could guess it correctly :)), I will post an equation linking Forex Gain for AAX and the USD/MYR exchange rate.

You will be able to use it at ease to predict future profit contributed to AAX by forex gain in 2016.

Happy guessing !!

Assuming takeover price is 0.70, warrant should value around 0.24

So Khazana is behind all this slow share price increase ? They want to recoup losses made in MAS ? At 0.41 , too cheap. 50% discount.

Expensive to privatise Airasia. Much cheaper to privatise AAX.

CIMB has some vested interest. Even when AAX turn from 100 million loss to 200 million profit, it reduces TP for AAX. Shooohhh go away people with vested interest.

Tony need to take care shareholders. No point limit up then UMA then Tony also die. But if turnaround occurs, PBT goes pass 200 mill, EPS 20 sen annually , share price 29 sen, most counter move limit up.

If syndicates want to push down AAX, they need about RM 100 million for 5 price level. If they do it alone, their risk is big. So syndicates churned out rumours mill so that investors sell their stocks. That is how they spread their risks to overyone in the stock market. If none of use follow the syndicate wishes, they will have to gamble 100% using their own money. When the wave of good PAT started to push price up, the opprtunity loss is 100 million.

For cummulative 5 levels, buyer exceeds sellers by 70 million at several levels. If you want to sell , go ahead martinbartesque. I will add 1.5 million buy if price drop to 28 sen.

AAX had stabilised for the moment, at some levels , buyers exceed sellers by 70million. Yet, people try to give out bad rumours to make ordinary investors to sell. I wish i knew them and willing to bet with them for every share they sold, i will march eith a single share buy, limit to RM 500k. I dont do any margin. So expect my staying power is strong.

Martinbartesque : You are right. Forex gain would be a major contributing factor. If not because of forex loss, AAX price would be around 0.6- 0.7 and not 0.29.

But frankly when Tan Sri Asmat Kamaluddin sold WA and bought mother, he gave some clue. Directors are not selling AAX mother. Think about politics - Rafidah, Asmat were from MITI. TF got his license from DRB, Asmat was from UMW. Whose side would AAX be ? And CIMB - Nazir looks opposite. Frankly, those were the forces. At the end of the day, the force does not matter. When good result is out - we get genuine buyer.

There is greed everywhere. Some people willing to create "panic" to induce people to sell. Behind the scene they bought it for themselves.

CIMB IB has its own master. Obviously TF is not CIMB IB master.

No plan for de-listing. TF has said that he would surprise analysts with the result this year. If he want to push down the price, he will never give hope of good result in the first place.

tonywong8 : Forex alone will give RM 177 million PBT. Not include others.

up to 300K

If AAX goes down to 0.265, I will be 100K.

Predictive AAX profit 1Q2016 : RM 190 million - RM 300 million. Confidence level 95%. P-value < 0.05

I dont know why this Mus5801 keep on posting his website equityprofit. Go off somewhere else.

Not worry about WA because logically it is risky, but attacking mother share AAX is an insult to human intelligence.

They losses money. I pity them.

You dont have to promote your website here mus5801. We all know how to analyse and we think , it is better for us to analyse on our own rather than believing someone else idea.

AugustinaFederica : I dont look at blog that give sweeping statement. Sweeping statement is a trap. They want people buy at high price where they have bought lower price and starting to dump the share. Frankly, my love is fundamental analysis.

AAX-WA - I knew the premium is high. Mother has to catch-up first before WA movement become meaningful.

Mean value prediction - RM 230 mill. With 95 % confidence level, p-value < 0.05.

Well Mr. Pauper, PBT of AAX 1Q2016 would be at least RM 190 million. At most RM 300 million. Surely, you will be long enough to be in this forum to see this.

Bet limit RM 500K.

We match ringgit by ringgit.

I prefer to bet with the personal money of CIMB IB analysts that post that TP . Anyone from CIMB . Come forward .

Anyone willing to bet with me ? The bet is simple. You short sell AAX and I match buy purchase at equal amount from now to 15th of April.

I just run-down my predictive regression simulation on AAX PBT ending 31st March 2016. The figure looks very good. Should I post now or let the price move down further so that I accumulate more AAX ?

That is the point where the war starts.

anyway, if the price move down - good to me too because I can buy more at lower price. But , what piss me off is IB acting like operator of share market. They dont give any breakdown detail of their analysis. Just a blanket sweeping statement - saying TP 0.15 and a reason by Malindo to cow other shareholders. Big bully.

I am a contrarian for AAX. No sharks or IB can play this counter as they wish because the number of shares is big, they dont have total control . Of course those sharks who have friend at CIMB IB may use their friend to help them - "Cash is King" maa.

Unless the directorz want to dump the share. When you see news director selling, then you have to be careful. But do we see directors selling in last few days ? I only see director buying.

Good for you goldenshares

Not from CIMB IB. But I am against CIMB IB - TP.

We is required from all of us - dont sell our share even though it looks intimidating. I will try to find some free time to blog my analysis, why it should move up and not move down tonight.

We will share our profit around RM 0.70 to RM 1.00.

Lets put our act together. Be strong and united. We will fight.

Not believing their target price is an act of war.

CIMB IB may be just realised that AAX give good value. So, they want to enter but many ikan bilis has entered at lower price between 0.15 to 0.24. So, it is quite risky for CIMB IB To reduce the risk, CIMB IB give a much lower target call so that they can buy lower. But if we dont give them the space, then they will flounder. Either they will go away or they will buy at high price.