ramsyll

ramsyll | Joined since 2011-05-25

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Stock

2021-02-02 16:57 | Report Abuse

This must be shortsellers at work. Dialog is fundamentally a solid stock and will show a strong rebound when they announce 2nd quater results in Feb.
Will be buying in soon as I get some funds.

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2020-12-21 22:16 | Report Abuse

Interesting to note that despite the good outlook that Dialog has of its biz, the share price currently hovering at RM3.40 is below its 250 days SMA of RM3.53.

Noted that Dialog is currently in a weak recent price performance or entering historically poor seasonal period during this X'mas/NewYear holiday period. I see some window-dressing activites happening which will see Dialog price back above it's 250 days SMA @ 3.53.

I'm just working on Dialog's profit, RM630mil FYE2020, with most analyst expecting YOY +10%-15%, lets take its minimum +10% easily achieveable with it's increased tanking capacity coming into operations & other core activities, so we're looking RM693mil which works out an EPS of RM0.123sen, PE30X, gives Dialog an intrinsic value of RM3.70; PE 35X = RM4.30.

Now the hidden gem in Dialog is their SUKUK issuance upto RM3billion, interest rate of 4.15%, 1st tranche issued in November 2020 amounting to RM500mil. Dialog has a nett borrowings at present of RM880mil which can easily be covered with it's positive cashflow of RM150mil per Q.

My guess is that the SUKUK proceeds will be utilised to acquire assets that will provide consistent sustainable profits inline with existing Dialog's biz, hence let's just prudently take a very modest 3% profit from the investment... works out to be RM90mil profit per annum; add that to RM693mil, we will be looking at RM763mil Dialog profit in the near future. That is an EPS of RM0.135sen and @ PE30X, intrinsic value of RM4.05. PE35X = RM4.72.

Stay invested in Dialog now looking forward to their asset aquisition news...

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2020-12-15 19:09 | Report Abuse

Bought another 10k @ RM3.35.
Been in and out of Dialog since 2010.

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2020-12-15 11:53 | Report Abuse

From my limited knowledge of TA, I thought the low would not go below June 12 RM3.45 but it did ! Those who are well versed in TA are very selfish with their knowledge unwilling to share. Dialog fundamental is INTACT and this is probably a huge profit taking by holders who bought Dialog pre-RM3.00 prices. Well.. Im going to realign some cash for next buy.

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2020-12-14 19:07 | Report Abuse

I maxed out my account with Dialog 60k shares. And now I wait for it to climb up and up and up to pass RM4.00.
I'm quite confident of Dialog's fundamental and future prospects despite it's drop in profit for Q1. With Q1 EPS @ RM0.026, annualised RM0.104 with a PE 35X will price Dialog at RM3.64, so buying any price below this is a bonus.
My guesstimate on Dialog earnings going forward, Covid19 vaccine yields positive result worldwide, with oil price positively climbing to US$50/barrel, Dialog will probably earn RM0.115sen EPS and at PE35X will price Dialog at RM4.025.
Actual results for Dialog 30.06.2020 proved RM0.1118sen EPS, so guesstimate of RM0.115 is very prudent for FYI 30.06.2021.
Dialog is generating positive cashflow, easily RM150mil cash per quarter from operations, and with 1st tranche Sukuk of RM500mil in their bank account, Dialog will have many options with their nett cash position, retire high interest loans which result into interest savings (currently interest cost RM11.7mil per Q vs interest income RM10.2mil per Q). Very likely to acquire or participate in a very high quality upstream asset with reputable owner, or invest further in their cash generating tanking farm. Nothing but good news for Dialog performance awaiting.
Let's ride it's wave...
Cheers !

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2020-12-08 15:47 | Report Abuse

@investmalysia @xiaojie It's a sarcasm intended for investor !

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2020-12-05 15:52 | Report Abuse

Investor... I have a very good friend who owns about 30mil shares. He is willing to let you have 1 million shares @ RM2.50. I can guarantee that.. If you are keen please private message me.

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2020-03-05 17:22 | Report Abuse

With Amcorp Group buying a controlling stake in Tee Land Singapore, it would seem that AmProp will be taken private in a matter of time. If I'm flushed with cash why not .. anytime !! And why not ? Coz the price is just very tempting and doable.. currrent maket price hovering RM0.40 to RM0.45 whilst NTA is RM1.45. Amcorp Group holds approximately 75% in Amprop so the balance 25% on a GO say at RM0.50 will only cost RM75 million with an untapped value of approx RM140 million of its NTA... and thats only on the 25% stake GO !!
Amprop then can realise a better value for its overseas project being pumped into Tee Land and probably easier to gain access to capital market..
So.. it's another TA Global where MI's will get less for their share value but Bursa, SC and gang will still ok the deal coz its still better than the present market value although its miles away from its net asset value. No corporate raider is going to fight Amcorp Group for this coz of the freefloat of 25% only available in the market...
Well... there you go.. another CORPORATE GREED in play taking advantage of the Mi's in an imperfect market situation...
MSWG - another case study for you to examine..

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2019-08-19 02:37 | Report Abuse

One re-rating catalyst disclosed - acquisition of an additional 25% stake in Bayan EOR, hence making it a sub @ 75%.
My guestimates: +profit to sh ~ RM50-60mil p.a. / +sop ~ RM0.08sen
(TP:RM3.96 i.e. EPS RM0.11 x PE36~FYE2020 ).
Let's see what the analyst works out.. and how the market opens @ 9.00am.... RM3.60 easy.

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2019-07-18 11:44 | Report Abuse

Dialog have been in the limelight recently with it’s share price rising from RM3.20 to RM3.50. Seems that Dialog’s 20-day SMA line is likely to turn higher enhancing it’s bullish sentiment. The share price will most likely test it’s resistance level of RM3.66 soon to a new high (RM3.76) and thereafter RM3.88 level. Support is currently established @ RM3.30.

1. Dialog’s construction of the first Pengerang Phase 3 upon locking in long term agreement with BP Singapore offering 430,000 m3 clean petroleum storage tanks services by mid-CY21.
2. The Edge based on fund managers’ and analysts’ top picks as the second half of the year unfolds reported Dialog in their top 10 stocks. Among the 15 research houses that cover Dialog, 13 have it on “buy”, with a median TP of RM3.80.
3. Black Rock Inc, the world's largest asset manager, recently took a block of shares depicts confidence of Dialog’s biz model and future.
4. Dialog secured a 5-year groupwide master service agreement for integrated turnaround main mechanical and maintenance mechanical static services from Petronas, which has an option for extension. These type of service agreements will generate approx. 30% profit.

I’m expecting the re-rating catalysts to continue with Dialog as they unravel:
• more Phase 3 customers in the coming months or near future.
• upstream sector - actively develop new reserves from existing contracts & acquiring new production assets.
• tanking expansions - ongoing operations of Pengerang Deepwater Terminals ("PDT") Phase 1 is currently being expanded by 430,000 m3 & Dialog Terminals Langsat (3) Sdn. Bhd. into a 300,000 m3 storage facility.
• balance of approximately 500 acres available in PDT for future phases.

We can expect Dialog’s Q4 results to continue rising with stronger than expected core businesses as well as full consolidation of Langsat 1 & 2, and stronger JV & associate contribution (full 12 month contribution from PLNG2 & contribution from PT2SB).

Come mid-August, Q4 results would likely see an increase in revenue to approx. RM650K, PBT of RM180K (Net Profit of RM155K) and Net Profit to ShareHolders of approx. RM150K, hence YTD of RM545K giving an EPS of RM0.097. At it’s current value of RM3.50, PE is 36X which is acceptable due to Dialog’s proven profitable biz model. Dialog might just surprise us with an unexpected record results of approx. RM0.10sen EPS and a Q4 dividend of RM0.02 sen.

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2018-12-18 15:01 | Report Abuse

its a pity at times need to school ignorant loud share "players"...
substantial shareholders i.e. 5% shareholding or more are in the investment for long term, and it would have been bought way back couple of years ago probably RM1.80 thereabouts. With holdings of 200-300 million shares, and average volume of Dialog's daily trading of 10 million shares, they have to take a longer period of time buying & selling taking profits whenever they realign their portfolio holdings.
pe 36 is cheap for Dialog based on 2 factors. i. past 5 years average history pe was 46x. ii. the biz model of Dialog in the O&G sector involved in 3 segments, upstream, midstream & downstream which balances their proven profitability over the years in volatile oil prices movements. Oil price drop, upstream lower profit but midstream profit up due to tanking and visa-versa.
Sometimes, when contracts are involved, it has a "period", hence completion of contracts will result in contract staff termination which is normal in the biz. Dialog just launched a new ESOS for staff and it reflects a "growth" to look forward to which staff are being rewarded for their contribution.
You have to look at Dialog future, and workout its future intrinsic value. If you think there is a good mid-long term prospects, then invest in it and trade along the way.
Have anyone thought of the potential take-over potential of Dialog by PETRONAS ?
Cheers.

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2018-12-17 13:13 | Report Abuse

Window dressing buying will see Dialog priced up to RM3.30. Fundamentals still intact, patiently await catalyst re-rating news.

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2018-10-29 13:08 | Report Abuse

@paktua.. good accumulation there paktua... managed to grab some at 3.18 but i heavy on c37 @ 0.08.

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2018-10-18 17:55 | Report Abuse

@OG_Investor .. definitely not a spin machine for Dialog nor employee.. i wish i was though ! I won't be too unduly worried about Dialog, PDT will be their cash-cow and no reason to doubt Phase 3 will ultimately secure customers. If not ground work is ever ready for tanking. The hidden gem of Dialog biz is their fantastic working relationship with Petronas and Johor government. Dont forget that Dialog has a supply base in Jubail, Saudi Arabia which is also very profitable. Benelac... first of all their landbank is on the east-coast away from PDT and slated for light industrial area.. With Aramco partnering Petronas in RAPID, Dialog will benefit the most with additional demands for tanking and jetty access (plans are there for Jetty 3 & 4).

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2018-10-18 17:08 | Report Abuse

@newbie8080 .. should have made 600% return but unfortunately not so... profit some lose some but yes overall a hefty profit realised.. trading profit reinvested into core-holdings.. and staying invested as i believe Dialog still got more to offer..

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2018-10-15 20:39 | Report Abuse

Dialog Annual Report was just released today. The future prospects and fundamentals of Dialog are still intact and promising until FY2021 with its biz model. And yes... with RAPID completion of its initial plan in 2019/20.

FY2018 saw revenue of RM3.1billion, PAT of RM510mil, EPS of RM0.09sen;
My guesstimation for FY2019, and hopefully Q1 results will back it up, revenue of RM3.5bil, PAT of RM580mil, EPS of RM0.11sen and for FY2020 revenue of RM4.0bil, PAT of RM630mil, EPS of RM0.12sen. Yes... im a bit bullish and thats becoz i have taken into account bonus factor of oil prices average of US$80-90 will prevail and Dialog will reap profits from its tanking and upstream activities due to this factor.
And perhaps... further upstream activity project award.

This is one stock that has a bright future planned since 2010 and still good for a further 3 years at least pending new developments. Far better sustainable profits with proven biz fundamentals and not speculative compared to some other O&G counters.That is why Dialog an ENERGY (O&G) proxy counter included in the KLCI.

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2018-10-13 00:04 | Report Abuse

File a complaint with MCMC... TM must automatically reduce the rates for all users to what they are offering new customers.. NOT asking users to go to the nearest TM Point to request for price reduction !!
If everyone makes a formal complaint to MCMC, then only the providers will be forced to reduce the charges on old users..

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2018-10-11 23:07 | Report Abuse

not to worry paktua73 and the rest who were "caught" in this round blood bath price drop. our beloved Dialog is not spared either but the good news is that chart wise, it seems that Dialog has established a strong support level of RM3.10 - RM3.20. From previous downtrend, second support level is RM3.05 SMA200. Dialog price closed today RM3.31 slightly below the initial cut-loss SMA100 price of RM3.34. Tomorrow Friday would be a day to closely monitor overall market position, both local Asia and Euro & US...
Fundamentally, Dialog has substance and sustainable cash profitable biz - Q3 report will be out in Nov2018 and look forward for positive news such as upstream activity project awards or tanking biz. However, in times like this, you must have holding power and bonus would be to prepared to ready disposable cash to buy further on weakness rebound. I said disposable cash (meaning you can afford to lose) hence you should NOT be using rent or loan or food or children money to buy !! Dialog has potential to rise up to RM4.00 over the next 6 months but have to be patient and have faith in its fundamentals. It is afterall a KLCI counter being an O&G proxy.
Have faith in Dialog.

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2018-08-17 10:44 | Report Abuse

Public Invest also raised their TP of Dialog to RM3.73 on solid fundamentals.

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2018-08-17 10:37 | Report Abuse

RHB raised their TP of Dialog to RM4.13...nice.

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2018-08-17 01:11 | Report Abuse

Dialog produced a commendable RM510mil profit after tax to shareholders for the fye 30.06.2018; EPS RM0.0906 which means taking a modest discount of it's 5 years average PE @40X, dialog is looking a potential price of approx. RM3.60. The high premium on its PE 40X is justified due to Dialog's proven biz model in its tanking biz, epcc, upstream activities and consistently producing positive results withstanding volatile oil prices and securing expansions. Positive cash flow from operations of approx RM450mil which will only grow better and better as the development phases completes and more and more biz is secured eg. PDT Phase 2 LNG terminal. FYE 30,06.2019 will be roughly RM550mil to RM600mil profit.

However, the analyst are going to mow them down on valuations stating that Dialog's result was below consensus and pending catalyst announcement, they downgrade TP price... I would take it as an opportunity to BUY IN... make no mistake of it.. price drop i buy.... i wont be too worried about Dialog's price movements too much as it gives an opportunity to trade and use the profit to build up my core investment once again in Dialog.

Why the bullish confidence you might ask..? 10 year ESOS plan by Dialog just announced. Dialog is in the KLCI component index. Dialog has a clear future growth plan especially in PDT, Phase 3 & the buffer zone (500 acres). Its generating positive cash flow and consistent biz. Very good working relationship with Petronas and state government. No hanky-panky nonsense like Sharil's Sapura..

What kind of TP price am i looking at ? RM5.00 in 2-3 years time. Ambank & Kenanga have priced Dialog's SOP TP @ RM3.90 & RM3.80 respectively and that is also after taking into account the buffer zone land at a modest RM30psf to RM80psf... however, if its used for tanking expansion, then there is a price upwards potential.

This is my personal view of Dialog.

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2018-06-04 12:54 | Report Abuse

over priced by 10c...

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2018-04-05 19:30 | Report Abuse

*If I'm not mistaken...

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2018-04-05 19:13 | Report Abuse

Finally. .. Dialog announce Phase 3 PDT inked fir RM2.5billion 300 acres reclamation for additional tanking....

If I'm mistaken, that should bring Dialog price to RM3.30 easily.... tomorrow fly !

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2018-03-29 16:04 | Report Abuse

Maybe promotion into KLCI ....

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2018-03-29 15:54 | Report Abuse

2.95/2.96 .... somethings brewing...

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2018-03-27 12:49 | Report Abuse

wow.. thank you chartist out there for your valuable info.. its deafening!!
ok.. from my limited surface knowledge on TA, i am of the opinion that Dialog may rise higher after taking a breather... today i guess it will form a green candle (RSI still below 70) and if tomorrow this upward trend is enhanced further with another green candle, accompanied with volume, thereby displaying a bullish sentiment, we'd likely see it breaching its present high of RM2.90 to a new high resistance @ RM3.00 and thereafter RM3.20.
Still awaiting positive news on Phase 3 customer & upstream production assets acquisition...

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2018-03-21 15:56 | Report Abuse

Will the TA charts concur with the uprising price to the TP presently? Any chartist willing to part with their valuable knowledge here?

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2018-03-21 13:04 | Report Abuse

paktua73... what price you looking at to let go?

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2018-03-21 12:56 | Report Abuse

PDT Phase 1 & 2 is progressing well and churning in nice profits. The catalyst is Phase 3 which is on-going in the reclamation works and in progress of securing customers.
But lets not neglect the prospects in the upstream sector... Dialog is actively developing new reserves from the existing contracts in it''s 50%-owned Bayan enhanced oil recovery project & 20% in RocOil's production fields of D35, D21 and J4.
The catalyst here is Dialog is on the lookout for viable production assets, which may become available for possible acquisition.... there is a very good possibility that this could be in the pipeline but Dialog will definitely partner Carigali, Haliburton or ROC as they did previously..

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2018-02-26 15:08 | Report Abuse

PBB C15 current price of RM0.455. Since PBB @ RM22.92, with exercise price RM20.30, ratio 5:1, C15 should be RM0.525... got RM0.07c differential upside in price...or settlement.

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2018-02-23 15:24 | Report Abuse

PBB C15 current price of RM0.435. If PBB @ RM22.64, C15 should be RM0.465.. got RM0.03c differential upside.

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2018-02-23 15:20 | Report Abuse

Latest price targets on PBBank:

TA Securities - RM27.30 (23.2.2018)
Affin Hwang - RM24.50 (23.2..2018)
MIDF Research - RM25.70 (23.2.2018)
Kenanga Research - RM22.35 (23.2.2018)
UOB Kay Hin - RM22.50 (Oct 2017)

Average TP = RM24.47

At current price of RM22.56, still got RM1.91 upside potential (8.5%)

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2018-01-30 16:31 | Report Abuse

you might not realise it but the drop despite overall market weaker, it is also specific to Dialog C17 settlement to pay a lower amount especially when Dialog price close lower..

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2018-01-30 16:27 | Report Abuse

don't be afraid people... buy.. look at its volume only 7.2mil... way below its average of 12.8mil... Dialog fundamental is still intact with an intrinsic value of RM3.00..

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2018-01-30 15:57 | Report Abuse

Time to nibble... nibble... results will still be good, not as good as Q1, due to disposal profit of RM65mil in Q1but it will still show improvements due to EPCC works & tanking...

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2018-01-05 21:48 | Report Abuse

RM2.73 highest.. that's faster than expected... short term target RM2.60 met.. now looking forward to mid term target price RM2.80 (expecting Dialog to trade range bound until Feb2018 for HY2018 results)...

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2018-01-04 10:51 | Report Abuse

RM2.56 high... will go even higher given time..;-D

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2018-01-03 20:23 | Report Abuse

I have said before, without Phase 3 taken into account, the present operations of Dialog will produce results that would propel its price to RM3.00 (mid to end 2018) over time upon completion & commissioning of PDT Phase 1 & 2 and also Langsat expansion. Dialog 1st Half year results will be announced by March 2018 and investors can see for themselves the fundamental value of Dialog being close to its intrinsic value.
I do believe the management of Dialog will carry on reclamation works getting ready for phase 3 and others with internal funds although I'm hoping for them to reward shareholders by giving free warrants with subscription rights for Dialog shares at a reasonable price which would enable Dialog to raise sufficient funds for major upcoming projects.
Stop loss RM2.40; Support RM2.47; Immediate upside RM2.60; Mid-term upside RM2.80; Long term upside RM3.00.
I'm staying invested core and trading both Dialog & C23... maybe C24.

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2017-12-27 15:41 | Report Abuse

Merry X'mas from down under...and Happy New Year 2018.. May GOD bless our Dialog for a profitable year..

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2017-12-12 10:09 | Report Abuse

Dialog will rise to close around RM2.50-RM2.60 by 28/12 or 29/12 EPF window dressing...

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2017-12-05 19:02 | Report Abuse

Slowly... but surely... RM2.60

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2017-11-24 23:39 | Report Abuse

I'm going to say that Dialog will trade around the "supported" support price of RM2.40 before slowly but surely embarking upwards towards RM2.60 by Dec2017 and RM2.80 by June2018 matching its FYE2018 profit to shareholders of approx. RM550mil x PE 29X when buyers fully absorb research analyst TP's.

This targets are definitely NOT taking into account any NEW announcement of PDT Phase 3 tanking biz or acquisition of upstream viable production assets which would be the catalyst re-rating of Dialog share price. This put an upside of anywhere between RM0.20 to RM1.00 + to Dialog price.

I'm staying invested core with side trade's both mother, C17 & C23.

cheers.

General
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2017-11-21 23:26 | Report Abuse

As mentioned earlier, Q1 results was very good, in fact record profit of RM160mil !! And I'm expecting the subsequent 3Q's to churn out roughly about the same numbers as Q1 since there are on-going EPCC works especially in PDT Phase 1 & 2 which can only further improve should Phase 3 PDT works comes on-stream along the way.

Now, it look's like the estimation of Dialog SOP (w/o Phase 3) of RM2.61 FYE 2018 is now backed by fundamental results. Annualising Dialog quarterly profit of RM160mil, we arrive at FYE 2018 profit to shareholders of RM640mil. With roughly 5.638bil shares,EPS is approximately RM0.1135 and using discounted 5 years historical PE of 25X (note: 5 years historical PE is approx 33X), the intrinsic value of Dialog works out to be RM2.84.

So... currently at RM2.30, we'd see Dialog rising towards RM2.45 soon and gradually to :
FYE 2018 = RM2.61 + RM0.23 = RM2.84 TP.
FYE 2019 = RM3.06 + RM0.23 = RM3.29 TP.

Lets see what the analyst have in their TP's...

cheers !

News & Blogs

2017-11-19 15:08 | Report Abuse

Fundamental rule in investing is:
1. Don't invest using money that you CANNOT afford to lose.
2. Don't borrow money to invest.

I'm pretty sure retiree's can't afford to lose their money so as I said before, if you are NOT financial savvy, engage a fund manager to manage your fund. Yes, i can agree that some of these fund managers fee's are higher than those offered by egoistic free-lance unlicensed fund managers who offer such services BUT bear in mind, these fund managers hire professionals to do the work, professionals who are industry knowledgeable in analysing company performances viz-a-viz general market or special industry segment.

I'm a Certified Public Accountant, Chartered Accountant and I can say that I'm fairly good in fundamental investing by myself BUT I still engage a fund manager to manage the bulk of my fund based on my risk appetite. Trust me, fundamental investing takes a lot of time to research, and even then what you have the materials, they are public knowledge, and market price would have accounted for it, hence the gem is to do a little forecasting viz-a-viz company future, industry, segment etc.. there are thousands of companies listed on the Bursa.. good luck !!

Therefore, if you are a retiree, it's time to enjoy your retirement, enjoy your time with your loved ones, meet up with your old friends, go and play golf, travel while you still can and let the fund managers manage your hard-earned cannot afford to lose retirement fund !

Cheers !

News & Blogs

2017-11-18 22:38 | Report Abuse

To all the retiree's out there... Mr.C, Paul and others... who are NOT financial savvy, my humble advice is for you to engage a proper fund manager to manage your funds in getting a return that is suitable to your risk preference.

Please go through the List of Capital Markets Services Licence holders for Fund Management issued by Securities Commission to ensure that your are given proper financial advice as to your requirements.

Personally, i use Phillip Capital to manage my retirement fund. Why you might ask? Becoz of Mr. Ang Kok Heng who is the Chief Investment Officer.. you can google him for his credentials.

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2017-11-16 11:21 | Report Abuse

TA chartist experts... what's the support level for Dialog ??

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2017-11-15 23:24 | Report Abuse

Question for I3 admin...
Please update your STOCK TARGET PRICE webpage with the latest price targets by CIMB, AMMB, Maybank... thank you.