Are malaysia property sector still doing fine ?
Any idea ?

Maybe the correct question is
How flymojo get their funding

Is it Middle East brotherhood's donation ?

Moi

Business man don't talk financial muscle with u
They talk ROI and risk

TATA have financial muscle but why they need to take the risk and pump in so much money in short time ?

Do u realize that TATA are actually JV with SIA for another LCC operate at India while they negotiate with Airasia for Airasia India ?

Business man think how to diversify risk
Not put egg in same bucket

Btw ,airasia and airasia x may choose one of the Philippine international airport as regional hub
If MAHB still reject to give cooperation , just divert the North asia <-> Australia transit from KLIA2 to philipine international airport.

Australia to middle Asia traffic may divert to Bali's hub as well
Let the airport operator feel the stress and pain only they will start listening

Tawau semporna might be the next grow of Sabah toursim

Let fight with philippino's Cebu , boracay ,Palawan and Puerto princess

Airasia fetch 3.6m passenger to KKIA2 yearly
Try imagine how much airport will get from airport tax if it increase twice when transfer passenger from KKIA2 to KKIA

After complete the calculation and u understand AA not a coward on this matter

Airasia just mentioned that they want to expand Kota Kinabalu international flight
And they are seeking to build Terminal 3 by themself .

This is what I mentioned previously
They are not lose confidence but bargaining with MAHB with their current load
This is typical business man mindset

http://www.orientaldaily.com.my/nation/gn201443068

Vaganond

Maybe the explanation of "AirAsia is diverting from the fact that they are losing competitiveness and require more special treatment?" didn't really correct.

When you able to bring big amount of passenger to certain airport
you have your bargain chip to negotiate with airport operator.
This explains why India Bangalore airport promise to give Airasia India 50% rebate of airport fee if AA commit to use Bangalore airport as their hub.

Malindo , firefly and other LCC doesn't have enough load for them to bargain with Airport Operator.

This is similar that when you didn't repay bank for 100k loan , bank will sue you
but when you didn't repay bank 100m , bank will begging you.

Truly business man always think how to change environment to suit their business.
AA is working on this and forcing airport operator to give them certain privilege.

by stay at KKIA2 , passenger of AA will pay lesser airport tax and indirectly increase competitive of MAA to other LCC who operate at KKIA.

Moi

Malindo also rent aircraft from Lion Mentari if not mistaken.
Why they do so ?

Who has so much of cash for aggressive regional expansion especially for airline business which is capital intensive.

Lets see how your FlyMojo get funding for aircraft.

Thailand largest carrier Thai Airway making losses.
however Thai AA making high jump of profit.

http://www.bangkokpost.com/business/tourism-and-transport/655068/taa-soars-over-thai-in-quarterly-reports

hi Dave

thanks for sharing
I'm agree with your opinion

Vaganond ,

I assume AA's so call financial getting worst is the high net gearing ?
It is to ensure their expansion and market share especially ASEAN to North East Asia.

Malaysia's market alone is niche as we have only around 30m citizen.
It is important that our local cooperate invest oversea before regional competitor raise or else our local cooperate will lose the chances and initiative.

We didn't have a large domestic market to sustain our cooperate a continuous funding for oversea expansion like what China , Korea and Japan cooperate able to do.
If our cooperate don't lever their fund for regional expansion now , they wouldn't have any chances after Thailand , Vietnam & Indonesia raised.

As for India market
Load factor is highest among all affiliate (83%)

However India's authority and local legislative are not friendly to foreign company.
Maybe this is one of the reason why India spent so much of time and still couldn't compete with China at most of the industry.

Vaganond

i'm agree with you but partially.

AA not only do well at Malaysia but doing very well at Thailand.
they dominant Malaysia LCC market and Majority player at Thailand LCC.

For Indonesia & Philippine ,
AA might have incorrect strategy issue as they underestimate local competitor Lion Air & Cebu Pacific at domestic market.

AA enter Indonesia & Philippine much later than Local LCC and this might cause them to compete with Lion & Cebu Pacific with weaker retail tunnel and lower brand awareness.
Retail tunnel & brand awareness are thing that accumulate by time being.

That is the reason why they start relocate their focus of Indonesia & Philippine from domestic flight to international flight which they having stronger retail tunnel & brand awareness at international market.

My mathematics is bad .
Need your advice in this

Asia

Can kindly share with us how u calculate PE and get 40?

Aluminium price is 1550 now
Any idea whether it can hold 1500?

Btw , when Airasia wanna start selling Aircraft to bring down net gearing ?

countdown 7 day for 2Q15 announcement.
Market sees cooldown today.

Need few day's cooling period for investor to get ready for new quarter report.

Pls join FlyMojo or Lion Air and bring them down
Do all Airasia's investor a favour

We beg you

Moi ,

read my statement again
IAA capacity reduced 12% and passenger reduced 18%, load factor decrease.
IAA negative factor can be ignore since strong growth at TAA able to offset it.
Can be ignore doesn't means that there is no problem at IAA.

you can actually read right ?
or you can analyze & process information with your current brain?

when i see the aircraft shifting from PAA & IAA to TAA ,
i saw the aircraft utilization rate is going higher.

It means your same asset are actually generating more money to your company now.
the only additional cost are just operation cost like pilot & cabin crew , jet fuel & etc.

All this production generated by lower cost since it is operating same aircraft with more frequent flight per day.

Airasia is not the sick horse.
The real sick horse is our country. A trust toward our country is weakening.

In case you have no idea where to looking for the 2Q15 preliminary stat
here you go

http://www.airasia.com/docs/common-docs/investor-relations/preliminary_operating_statistics_2q15.pdf

MAA increased their capacity 7% with no additional aircraft.
all the additional capacity following with 7% increase of passenger.

Philippine AA reduced 4 aircraft and but increased 1% capacity following with 6% passenger increment.

AA India posted 83% load factor , highest among all within AA group.

Indonesia AA is the only affiliate which posted weaker result.
Reduced 12% in capacity and 18% in passenger.
but IAA's size is only half of TAA and quarter of MAA.

TAA is the most amazing affiliate.
6 aircraft increased with 23% capacity gain following by 26% passenger increase.
Load factor increased 2%.

anyway ,

long term investor can hope Foreign fund sell more AA share and bring down the price
Deeper it drop , stronger it bounce.

AAX may not post a good result until 4Q15.
MAS only start implement rationalize since Sept 15.

China Yuan's dilute only 2%
Our ringgit's dilution is the fastest in whole asia.
Their buying power is getting stronger against malaysia ringgit & ASEAN country.
Don't forget that Yuan already raising for continuous few year.

and weaker ringgit & GST will make our local traveller downgrade their vacation destination from North Asia -> ASEAN country. or else traveller will downgrade their flight experience from full service airline to budget airline.
Malaysian is still spending , just the consumer behaviour changed.
From luxury to budget style.
From MAS to Airasia.

What AA need now is stronger and stronger promotion in order to catch back public's eye ball.
I'm wondering why they not sponsor those travel blogger to visit ASEAN country.
Many ppl especially youngster seek for blogger's experience while they planning their trip.

Asia ,

Please la. Malaysia Airport & Airasia's stat already announced.
2Q15 having a better than expected strong bounce.
Actually what are you trying to argue here ?

Load Factor increase to 80% is a fact
Thai AA's passenger increase 26% is a fact.
Indonesia AA's passenger decrease (together with flight cancellation) is a fact.
PAA's load factor increased is a fact.
AA India's load factor increased is a fact.

Only MAA & TAA's profit are more than enough to offset IAA's losses.

Personally i don't think IAA's issue may solve in short time.
But strong improvement at TAA will offset their losses.(Please bear in mind that TAA is much larger than IAA in size & passenger amount).

If PAA manage to turnover this year, AAB is ready to restart Japan AA again next year.

AA 2nd quarter result announce on 20 August
statistic of airport shows 12% increment of traveller at KLIA2
and 80% of traveller at KLIA2 is AA/AAX

news of 2nd quarter going post at newspaper
let's see what will happened

Malaysia export many Bauxite to China
Ringgit depreciate making them more competitive

China let their RMB depreciate will make China alumminium factory export more product to market
And Pmetal 2nd quarter report maybe not ideal as factory accident and caused production halted 1month

AAX load factor dropped to 6x% and Passenger only 82m
It is unsustainable

the statement of increasing foreigner traveller throught AAX
It has no base to support this statement at all .

Ringgit depreciate may attract more traveller to malaysia
Because it make their buying power stronger
If they have stronger buying power , why not they choose full-service airline and make themself more comfortable?
That why I doubt how AAX going to enjoy ringgit depreciate as what AA enjoying now

For short distance LCC
Traveller can still patiently sit down at the narrow seat.
medium distance LCC is starting test patient of passenger.
Long distance LCC , traveller start complaint when they heading to custom after landed.

Of course , not everyone can afford Full Service Airline
And not everyone couldn't handle the long distance flight in narrow seat
but it narrow down AAX's customer base since traveller flow to full service airline at long distance flight route due to flight experience.
This can be proof by AAX's cancellation of Europe flight.

Besides , long distance flight is facing competition from international airline especially Gulf operator.
AA group is success at niche market. But those long distance route from regional major city to another regional major city are full with strong competitor.
And all this competitor are cash rich and talent rich.

AAX is still a small fish in this big pond.

SinGor ,

IFCA's revenue , profit is increase steadily continuous few quarter.
Does AAX having profit ?
Maybe we shouldn't compare an apple to an orange.

MAS is in aviation industry as well. It also trading around 20 to 30 sen before it delisted.
It is also facing same issue that AAX facing currently, continuous losses.

Maybe we can claim TF is genius , professional in managing aviation company ... blah blah blah
But now majority is wondering whether the model of Long Distance LCC will work.

We need a proof , not assumption.

KLIA see 10% traveller increase on July
quoto "while klia2 grew 17.6% to 2.26 million over the same month last year"

http://www.theedgemarkets.com/en/article/july-passenger-traffic-127

Please check Cebu Pacific's Revenue and Profit Margin
their growth is much stronger than Airasia.

AA model is good , but it only working fine at Malaysia & Thailand.
Airasia failed to capture enough market share and load at Indonesia and Philippine domestic market in order to sustain their fleet.
That why they failed in this 2 market. When you load factor is low , you blame company losses to cost structure ?

TF once claim that AA is the regional lowest cost budget air proudly.
Now you claim that IAA having cost structure issue
You must be the Malaysia next Aviation Industry Tycoon who going to overtake TF.

I suggest you join FlyMojo
With your talent , you can demand CEO with salary you like.

Please la Moi ,

u compare MAS' management with Cebu Pacific's management team ?

for business , it is important you enter the market earlier than your competitor.
Why China's Volkswagen have much larger market share compare to Japanese automaker ?

For aviation , it is very important airline enter the market prior competitor
Because there is something call Freedom of the Air.

Please wikipedia and check what is that before you make comment here.
You donno business and donno aviation but keep making comment.

Moi

TAA & IAA is applying same methodology
TAA work because TAA enter thailand LCC market earlier than most of the competitor.
and competitor within Thai is much weaker.

Please check Lion & Cebu Pacific's market share within their home market and compare to Nok & Thai Smile.

Do you have any idea how many aircraft Lion air owned and operated at indonesia ?
and do you have any idea about Cebu Pacific ?

does anyone able to capture Airasia & Airasia X aircraft utilization statistic ?
Besides load factor , RASK & CASK , i think aircraft utilization rate data is very important as well.

Moi ,

MAA only own less than half of IAA share
Profit making by IAA will only share to MAA according to share percentage.
but if IAA rent aircraft with MAA ,
MAA capture all rental as revenue but not sharing this revenue with their indonesia partner.
So if you are business man , why you should share your meat with other if it is already in your mouth ?

2nd , Rupiah's fluctuate is large for pass few year (larger than ringgit before 1MDB Scandal).
IAA buy it own aircraft might caused IAA facing same issue of what AA facing now. Paper loss in Forex.

3rd , does IAA having sufficient cash flow to capture loan for aircraft ?
A company which making losses so many quarter , why bank should trust them ?
Ask AA to guarantor ? they only owned half of IAA share , why they should take the whole risk which suppose to sharing with their Indonesia Partner ?

IAA may still need time .
AA highlight will be thailand's robust toursim and malaysia stable increment

What IAA , PAA and AA Indian can do is reduce their losses to reduce burden of AA group

AA need another affiliate to start making profit before Japan business restart and contribute initial losses

Anyway

Still the same old rule
Greedy while everyone afraid
Afraid while everyone greedy

I think jacky is bringing out concern of the mass economy
China's stock collapse doesn't affect many ppl

80% who making losses this round within China region are retail investor
Even their property market also affected by butterfly effect

btw , i'm still not positive on indonesia AA in short term.
Lion Air have bad flight record but they successful penetrated indonesia domestic market.

AA may avoid the direct competition with Lion Air by shifting aircraft productivity from domestic to international market
but in the end they still need certain level of appearance in domestic market.
It is to maintain public awareness of AA brand within Indonesia region.
And it is also for future fly-thru service readiness.

SinGor ,

We doesn't need to handle AAX's Forex loss
The management need to handle AAX's Forex loss.

I don't understand your statement of "If you think you cannot handle AAX's forex loss, it is better you unload now."

how are retail investor going to handle the Forex loss ?
Hedge Forex ourselves ?

if AA price may hold at RM1.3x solid
a beautiful report which able to catch Wellington eye ball might shoot AA share price to sky high.

after 3rd quarter , Forex maybe not an issue again (lets hope it won't break RM4.00 to another clift)
and fuel price doesn't look will raise in mid term if Iran flood the market with their 3m barrel/day production.

2016 should be a good year.
2015 most likely moderate only.

We may see now AA is doing Fixed Deposit.
Their Forex losses are paper loss since aircraft loan repayment is 14 years.
Within this 14 years , if ringgit appreciate against USD , AA will receive huge Forex gain.

It will be wise if TF start sell and lease back aircraft at low ringgit in order to unlock their cash.
After Ringgit appreciate , all this money can be use to buy new aircraft since airbus gave AA lot of buying option.

for short term , AA may have good 2nd quarter report
but 3rd quarter report might issue again since USD appreciate dramatically again.

SinGor ,

We knew how the Forex work.
Explanation doesn't resolve AAX Forex loss issue.

MAS cutting capacity and result will only shown at 4th quarter report which is next year.
before they enjoy MAS rationalize , they will suffer massive Forex again during 3rd quarter. It is on the way to RM4/USD.

Does Benalec have enough cash to start reclamation work at Tg Piai alone ?
Current cash balance seems too low to conduct such amount of work.