don't catch a falling knife
this counter look like a trap to catch small fish at high price.

They just sound like Green Packet

GMT's report mostly back by international short seller.
the airasia report editor's profile shown in GMT web page is "help generate ideas for hedge funds at Goldman Sachs"

It is not tough to guess what GMT working on and who is their partner.

wall street journal news regarding aluminium.
Pmetal's phase 3 maybe make thing worst.

http://www.wsj.com/articles/chinas-aluminum-producers-stare-down-price-plunge-1438686345

asia ,
some company get pressed few year only start moving.
It will also rebounce if 2Q15 report is good.

At least the statistic show 2Q is good.

Hi Ferisc ,

you are right.
let's wait for 2Q15 to identify this.
If this is correct, 2Q15 should facing Forex loss around 61m.
Means every drop of 1% in ringgit agaist USD will contribute AA 61m loss.

Anyway , passenger carried by Cebu Pacific is just around 1m lesser compare to MAA
PAA still have lot work to do capture market share

Hi ferisc

I believe AA 2Q15 report should better than 1Q15 especially Contribution from TAA
I went bangkok few month ago and tourist at bangkok is flooding bangkok town.

Back from Medan few week ago ,
AA load factor is good (maybe due to Raya Holiday).
Just need to enhance market share at indonesia market as most of the flight depart from Medan airport are non-AA flight

STC1136 ,

Maybe TF's statement not tally with AA 1Q15 quarter report presentation .
Pls double check quarter report at Airasia web page .

rMoi

I dont really understand your question about does AA take delivery of physical jet fuel or not.
Actually what you trying to deliver?

for other who don't understand Ringgit & Petroleum price relation ,
you may read CNBC's news posted few month ago

http://www.cnbc.com/2015/02/26/lower-oil-both-blessing-and-curse-for-airasia.html

Lower oil prices usually boost airlines' earnings, but for AirAsia, the decline pushed the carrier into the red as crude's plunge took Malaysia's ringgit with it.

AirAsia swung to a net loss of 428.5 million ringgit for the fourth quarter, its first loss in two years, after its foreign-exchange losses surged to 647.6 million ringgit from 34.9 million in the year-earlier quarter.

The ringgit has plunged nearly 13 percent against the U.S. dollar since mid-2014, trading around levels last seen in 2009, during the Global Financial Crisis. Despite recovering somewhat this month, Brent crude prices have nearly halved since the middle of last year. Petroleum products and liquefied natural gas account for 14 percent of Malaysia's exports.

The blow to the ringgit pushed up the cost of AirAsia's foreign-currency debt and operating costs.

Ferisc ,

AA forward Forex hedge is 56%
the rest of of 44% follow market rate.
That is why i'm worry as ringgit to USD will drop rapidly.
Personally i will not surprise RM4 to 1 USD once FED confirm raise interest rate.
But luckily TF have an option to sell aircraft in USD in order to counter Forex issue.

As for Jet fuel hedge ,
AA hedge it at Singapore Jet Kerosene market.
Current price is around USD 66 if not mistaken but 50% of AA fuel consumption was hedge at USD 88.
This is another issue facing by AA currently.

If AA able to resolve this 2 hedge issue , their net profit surely can fly.

Malaysia AirAsia. Passengers carried increased by 6.8% YoY with similar increase in seats offering, resulting in a maintained load factor of 80%. Aircraft utilisation has increased to 5.6 flights/aircraft/day from 5.3 flights/aircraft/day in 2Q14, suggesting fewer aircraft are being grounded. MER views MAA's operating statistics as encouraging when compared to the 3.1% pax increase and 75% load factor seen in 1Q15. 2Q is typically the weakest quarter for Malaysia AirAsia.


Thai AirAsia. Pax carried increased 26% YoY with a load factor of 80% (vs 78% in 2Q14). 1H15 passengers carried is tracking ahead of our expectation (52% of our FY15E).


Indonesia Airasia. Pax declined 18% YoY on the back of 12% reduction in seats offered. Load factors declined 500bps in 2Q15 compared to the 621bps decline seen in 1Q15. Since 1Q15, Indonesia AirAsia has reported a longer average stage length of >1,200km while fleet size has remained the same. We believe this is on the back of their route rationalisation, which focuses more on international flights.


Philippines AirAsia. Pax carried increased 5.7% in 2Q15. 1H15 passengers carried is in line with MER’s expectations (55% of our FY15E), considering seasonality.


MAA , TAA and PAA are improving
only IAA is still in deep shit.

as i mentioned many time since few month ago prior GMT research house blow the issue
They have fuel hedge & Forex hedge issue

They making loses while their competitor making advantage for low fuel price.
Iran is going to ramp up their petroleum export from 1m barrel to above 3m barrel in short time.

It might bring down petroleum price even lower in future

Hi Dragonofdark

You are right.
Airasia hedge 50% of their Jet Kerosene at USD 88 / bbl
but current Kerosene are around USD 66 only

means their fuel hedge is making a huge loses and caused their price slump after petroleum price drop.

Most of the forumer here don't understand it or they choosed to ignore it blindly.

China stock market crack may bring down property as well.
Domino effect. When you losing too much in stock market , you need to sell your property in order to cover your loses.

How much China market contribute to IFCA's revenue ?

rubber use to manufacturing tire price slip
Aluminium use to manufacturing rim will survive ?

http://www.theedgemarkets.com/my/article/rubber-set-bear-market-china-slowdown-worsens-oversupply

For Indonesia AA ,
AA Group already rationalize domestic flight to avoid competition with Lion and increasing frequent on international flight as AA is leading in Indonesia International Market.
It is necessary strategical move since Indonesia AA crashed last year and company need time to gain domestic consumer's trust.

For Philippine AA ,
Load Factor is increasing continuous.
It will be good if Phillippine AA may operate more international flight connect to north asia country since Philippine's island attraction are overlap with Malaysia and it might limit tourist visit from Malaysia since we have alternative choice domestic.

For India AA ,
India AA having issue on India Government policy and it might limit expansion of India AA.
However It is still very small portion in AA group but load factor is high.
As long as it is making money with high load factor , slow expansion will not an issue.
Slow and Steady will be good strategy since India's Authority & Policy are not efficient enough.

asia

If you have proof for example photo to show low load factor please kindly share with us.
for me , Airasia is very few malaysia company which have well management.
And their load factor stat already announced.

For me , i only have concern about their Forex & Fuel hedge strategy.
Once this concern resolve , it is time to show hand and cash in

Samsam ,

AA able to counter Forex loses during 1st quarter due to they sold 5 aircraft in USD.
They sold nothing during 2nd quarter (at least we didn't saw any activity on this by newspaper) thus there are no counter measure on 2nd quarter Forex lose.

Forex loses we talk about here is not just Ringgit to USD conversion rate.

China's Economy statistic doesn't look good.
Raw material price hard to seek for a support

Aluminium price already break 1700 ?
OMG

keep dropping in price
investor want to see the real deal but not rumour.

No news for Brahim anymore ?
How about their sugar refinery at EM?

Naim's PE is so low and NTA is so high.
wait for some speculator goreng or company shutdown and return shareholder with their NTA value.

For business wise ,
AA may setup an affiliate to focus aircraft related maintenance services

This is high profit margin industry and they may turn into regional Airbus maintenance service provider.

For me ,

AA only have 3 issue
1st : Forex loses (This can counter by selling more aircraft by USD pricing.
2nd : Fuel Hedge activity with price higher than market rate.
3rd : Competitiveness against Lion air & Cebu Pacific


Other than this , AA is very well manage company around this region.

September's FED meeting is important as if they raise interest rate
Ringgit to USD can easily drop to deeper with our existing political instable situation.
Please also keep in mind Bersih 4.0 held before Merdeka.
Muhyuddin is not the only uncertainty. We still have opposition and Tun M.

SinGor , just sharing

all investment bank said AA is in good shape
only 1 research house said they have problem

but this one and only research house bring their share price all
the way to RM1.29

this is history and this is fact

investment bank and rating company just provide u reference
they are not bible

To me ,

Airasia is a well manage company throughout Malaysia.
It's problem is highest management have incorrect stategy on forex & fuel hedge.

Besides , it also show that it is weak while competition with Lion & Cebu Pacific at their home market.

will lower Oil Price will result in lower ringgit ?

Airasia India is next affiliate who will contribute loses after Philippine and Indonesia.

India's Indian is not easy to dealing with.

Stock market is all based on trust
when market lost faith on company and it will get snipe easily.

Investor is losing faith on AA & TF and this is the fact.
AA also having plenty of foreign fund shareholder and this make them major victim while foreign fund retreat from our country.

airport June's statistic is not really good
flight frequency increased but traveller number decreased

IAA is lucky that indonesia government / authority's policy making & execution are bad enough.

anyway , it may solve issue temporarily
but AA still need to force their lose making affiliate start Aircraft rental payment which pending for sometime (and also part of revenue AA group).

Let see TF's crisis management

Year ago , tony warning Lion air expend too fast
He should listen back wad he said now.

Lion air killing his IAA and malindo killing his AAX

TF had spent to much of effort to enjoy life instead of focus on his main business

rMoi

You pay your installment monthly or 1 shot after you received goods if you buy a car or property ?
This question is simple only.

Why AA & AAX got so many Forex loses ?
it is due to loan repayment.
dont misleading other at forum

bro

if you are investor and wanna take over AA
when is the best timing you cash in ?
this is very simple question and YTL corp aand other tycoon always doing the same

you buy when there is crisis
that is the timing where asset at cheaper price .
if they smart enough , they should keep short sell AA price and pressure price
only they able to get best price.

this is business , not father take care son
khazanah or other party who wanna take over have no
responsible to pay at reasonable price.

how much value of a company is define by market not TF

Now better pray AA affiliate don't bankrupt in future
It will definitely cause domino effect

rMoi

Already told u few month ago
Affiliate problem doesn't means not AA problem
AA holding share of AAX as well

Now I tell again , AA need to bailout AAX , PAA and IAA
where those fund coming from ?

My question to you few month ago is exactly tally with what GMT research questioning now.
And your answer is exactly same as what TF reply

Affiliate money losing can't merge into AA balance sheet due to local accounting rule

Accounting trick just cover issue temporarily
It don't solve the problem because in the end , all company need funding to run their business
Or they can choose bankrupt

http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/5c451b04-215f-11e5-ab0f-6bb9974f25d0.html#axzz3epGi2DZy

if this is true , airasia in deep shit

last year CIMB reduced target price of AA
everyone in forum shit on them
but the real world shows that their analyst is correct.

Now they reduce TP of AAX
lets see whether they make it right again or not

ngwt

i think crawler is referring to this

http://www.bursamalaysia.com/market/listed-companies/company-announcements/4791853
http://www.bursamalaysia.com/market/listed-companies/company-announcements/4791777

anyway , some of wellington subsidiary selling and some buying
we may just ignore this.

crawler have too many fund stuck at this share that why he is hard selling it now after rMoi.

don't need to care cold eye or hot eye.
this company's revenue and profit raising yoy

selangor water deal haven't finalized yet ?

forum suppose a platform for discussion and idea exchange.
But now this forum got too many retail investor doing continuous hard selling after himself get stuck.

So many political shows recently
Hope Our politician still have time to dealing with what they suppose to do

Suddenly losing power

What a child