My mistake, the development is in Cyberjaya, not Iskandar. The JV partner is Nexgram, another counter held by Tey.

The new major shareholder, Tey, bought it 1.27m shares from off market on 21 May 2014. Nothing substantial but a positive note. His ACE counter and Protasco is also going into property development biz in Iskandar with a GDV of about RM400m. Quarter results due soon, should be better.

Just read The Star on Sat, the MRT line will have a station at UNITEN, that's exactly where Protasco's land is. [not sure it is a confirmed line or just a proposal]. Although I found it crazy, some new launches priced their condo near MRT for RM1200 psf. Potential for its DeCentrum is very good. Will augurs well for its property sale and pricing.

Property near LRT and MRT has appreciated significantly. According to an experience property guy I know, he said normally when the line is confirm, the price will goes up, when people see the physical development (advance state), the price will goes up again, and when it is finally completed, it will goes up again. That is his observation. So, opportunities is still there, at RM1.95, it is traded only at 50% of its fair value.

LAST CALL. Free (good fish), not need to pay tuition fee or learn how to fish.

Dear readers, please pardon my typo and grammatical errors. @bsngpg, using Rule of 72, if you double your money in 10 years, your average return per year is 7.2% (72/10). You will have to benchmark with KLCI during the same period.

Well, remember 1993, they said, just throw a dart, and you sure gonna make money. But most gave it back in 1994. All newbies need to pay tuition fees. But, with Internet, hopefully, they will pay less fees. There is another one in 1998 and a few more later on, every time new stories. Many of my peers gave up. Few survives.

Even with the statistics pile against them, most still think they can out perform the KLCI. Just like casino, why gamblers still visit it knowing the probability of winning in a long run is very slim. The participants these days are different, due to the internet, it attracted a lot of day traders and many clubs involved in technical analysis (just like property clubs). The temptation is there. Those who haven't experience the few crashes, do not know the meaning of being burnt.

Frankly, the good unit trusts that makes around 9-12% p.a. for long term, I believe is less than 10%. The platform will change over time, when in future, we are exposed to ETFs, with no upfront fee or very low management fee will eventually wipe out some of the unit trusts that do not perform.

Some of the investors sound so confident, as if they are the operator of the stocks. Some even said financial never lies, so funny. Always remember, the information we get today is sometime not second hand, sometime it is third hand. At least fund managers or analysts is slightly better than an average investors.

Instead of looking for SIFU, either we become our own SIFU. Enjoy the game.

I treat is like a game, sometimes you win sometimes you lose. For fun, just like badminton. But over the decades, your skills will improve. It is the process that I enjoy. Will have great fun telling my kids, how I nearly lost his/her education funds and came back with a big bang. But today, the newbies have an advantage, Internet. Learning curve is definitely faster.

On a more serious note, based on the statistics I have seen, an average investor is better off to search for a good FUND MANAGER, or buy an ETF on stock index. This is good for people who are busy and doesn't enjoy playing the game or have no time for the game.

Over a long run (more than 10-20 years), whichever method(s) makes you a high return (15%-20%) is a good method.

I notice, a lot of reference is made to super investors like, Benjamin, Warren Buffett, Munger, Walter Schloss, and many other gurus. Some investors like to imitate their "method" or "style" of investing. Please be careful, they are referring at NYSE which market cap of about USD15 trillion and stocks that has 50 to 100 years history and also global while in Malaysia, our Bursa market cap say around RM1.5 trillion, or USD0.5 trillion, most of them either tightly held by major shareholders or GLCs, kampung champions, limited float (easily being cornered), M&As rules that is different (doesn't not encourage hostile takeovers).

So, one have to "improvise" the method drastically to suit our BURSA. Mr Koon method of investment is very BUSINESS LIKE way, and their thoughts are very different from other investors. He look at bigger picture, and bet heavily on what he "felt" are the undervalued stocks. He likes plantations stocks, comparing selling price say RM3000 per tonnes vs cost of productions of RM1300 per tonnes, he does not refer to plantations' ROE much, because, lots of them are below 10%. He prefer under research stocks. He bets heavily on a FEW stocks. And I am sure he donates lots of his profits to the unfortunate.

Generally, a lot of new investors pay lots of tuition fee for the stock markets. Just imagine, assume the unit trust market NAV is RM400billion, and 90% are making loss, i.e. RM360 billion is not performing, and being charged 1.5% disregard their performance, RM5.4billion is paid yearly to feed the agents, fund managers, analysts, stock brokers, etc. DON'T we think it is BIG biz out there?

SILK went up from 64 sen to 88 sen in 10 days (37.5%). During the same period, SILK announced, a contract of RM22m, private placement at 72.5sen, disposal of 1.0m shares by Dato' Azlan (less than 1% of his holding).

The question is not whether such news cause the increase, it is more important if the news improved drastically the fundamental of the company. From what I can see, yes, the contract is a positive to the profits, and the private placement also improve gearing (which will reduce the funding costs).

The sharp increase, in price, comes together with the volume. The increase is too fast and naturally, it will consolidate a short while before moving further. So, it could be a good time to take some profits, and reenter when it falls back say to about 76sen. Just a thought.

SC just approved its transfer to Main Board. If we look at its PEG ratio, it is actually below 1.

This counter remind me of SILK. Silk went up from 30sen to 60 sen, then up and down a few times between 68 and 60 sen, before the announcement of private placement, the share went up to 88sen, and the private placement was priced at a discount at 72.5sen. Today it is trading at 22% above the placement price of 88sen.

If you notice, similarly before the private placement for Protasco, the price went up to RM2.04, then consolidate around RM1.86 to RM1.98 for a couple of weeks. The pp price if I am not mistaken is about RM1.90.

The only different is Protasco prospects definitely looks better than SILK. Should accumulate when it is not moving (like SILK, around 60 sen for many weeks) before it surge to 88sen in less than one week.

Of course, I also notice a lot of share price went up prior to the private placement, besides SILK or Protasco, similarly, Coastal also went up, and the pp price is RM4.30, after which it went up to RM5.00 plus, but now came down to about RM4.75.

Similarity aside, the fundamental and growth prospects for Protasco is far better than some of the other stocks and the forward PE is in single digit.

Protasco currently at RM1.95 undervalued and has very good potential to double in two to three years. Some of my observations (2013 profit to shareholders RM48m and market cap it about RM650m):

1. The ROCI (net of cash) for past 4 years is actually 15.3% which is very good (ROE is about 11%)

2. Only 20% of the property results is taken into 2013 accounts (RM4m), so the remaining RM20m is yet to be accounted for.

3. Oil and gas contribution will be significant, up to RM20m.

4. If you notice, 2013 vs 2012, PAT before MI is both the same, i.e. RM71m. But after MI, 2013 improved to RM43m vs RM37m. Hence, for coming quarters, higher PAT after MI is expected.

5. Current PE is about 13x, Forward PE for 2014 and 2015 is 8x and 6x respectively. Protasco should worth at least a PE 15x for 2014. Hence, the market cap should worth RM1.2billion, which is double from now. Of course, the company is awaiting the approval the free warrants;

6. Last but not least, the second largest shareholders just announced he may be transacting in the closed period.

CONCLUSION

Opportunity is still there before it is too late. Dividend is expected about 5-6%p.a. Upside 100%. De Centrum property (RM10bil) potential is GREAT with MRT line 2 coming up.

It is very difficult to explain for such a sharp rise from 60 sen to 88 sen. 47% up in less than 2 months. I expect it to go up 100% in 24-36 months. Hmmmm…….a lot faster than I thought. Happy problem.

Their existing business is construction and engineering biz in oil palm mil. They also manufacture vehicles for plantation uses. Yes, RHB mentioned about the patent renewal and pioneer status, else they will be taxed.

I am looking from a biz point of view, not as an analysts. They are planting 6000 ha p.a for the next 10 years. It will cause them RM1b - 1.4b. They will definitely require loan. As long as loan is used on a good assets (cash generating assets) it is fine. That's why I said 10-15 years, not one or two years. Analyst look at ONE year horizon, so, if your investment period is one year, please, do consult the analyst.

Yes, cost per ha is about RM16,000 - 19,500 per ha, spread over 3 years.

I was writing about SILK when it was around 61.5sen about a month or so. SILK has been moving up a bit fast lately. Two new developments are the private placements and one of the vessel was contracted with oil major for 2 years.

If it follow the script, it should goes up 6 sen a month, now it has moved 24 sen in one month. Faster than I thought. Valuation wise, remains, should reach 120 sen in 2-3 years time.

The price has been pretty flat for a short while. This could be a good and last opportunity for serious investors to accumulate. Protasco earning growth can exceed 15% p.a. compounding for a least next 3-5 years. Hence, currently the price is lower than the real value by easily 50%. Best time to buy now, getting 6 sen dividend. Free warrants, may worth another 12 sen? So, you can get nearly. Any another 6 sen in Dec, total, 24 sen over 1.94 = 12%.

PAT 95m,121m,138m. With average growth of 22%. PEG = 17/22 = 0.77. With potential upside of 20%.

Chartwise looks good. FA - Erratic earnings of 127m in 2010 and then the next 3 years loss 80m, 66m and 5m. Unless, this is another big turnaround year, then with the positive technical, can have a look.

This stock's price is pretty much determined by the growth rate over the next 3-5 years. It has dropped from the peak of RM4.87 to today RM3.46. (DROPPED ABOUT RM1 Billion in market cap).

RHB's projections is RM98m and RM110m for 2014 and 2015, at today's market cap it is trading at PE of 24 and 21x respectively.

RHB has not include the petrol card (few hundred million) contract in its projections, there should be additional contribution. With this additional contract, I believe the PE will drop to about 15x. If they add in a few more major contracts over the next one two years, then the there is potential to go up.

How good plantation companies doing for the past 13 years from 2000 to 2013.

Market Capitalisation
Genting Plantation 580m to 8,200m
KLK 3,700m to 24,000m
United Plantation 508m to 5,400m

The above is some of the well run plantation companies. For companies which has growth potential and well manage, I believe they will be doing well in the long run. Of course all fund manager will say, past performances do not represent future projections.

Inari current earnings is expected to reach RM95m this year vs Dsonic is about RM82m.

Both have similar growth for the next 2 years, i.e. about 30% compounding.

Now, why is Inari market cap only RM1.4bil vs Dsonic market cap of RM2.3bil? Both have similar ROE of 40%. Strong growth rate. Could it be, Inari's earnings is not recession proof while Dsonic earnings is recession proof?

Both may have potential, from a mathematical point of view, Inari looks better, unless Dsonic can prove its growth is much higher.

Give it 2 years, you will see a much smoothen and reflective earnings, especially in 2015, toll will be increase from RM1.30 to RM1.80 plus with toll volume increase about 12% p.a. compounding. Similarly, full reflection of the earnings from OSVs of full capacity and equity holdings.

Meanwhile, you can see the price up and down a couple of time when volume exceed 10 million shares traded.

I am not familiar with where engineer ends up eventually, but I do know that those who take accountancy, CPA or CFA has lots of options. Let me name a few: Investment Analyst, Corporate Finance in Investment Bank(IB) or in commercial, Corporate Banking in IB, CFO, Investors Relation, many positions in IB (compliance, internal audit, risk management, credit department, relationship manager, finance and accounts, etc), Financial Planner (if they take CFP), auditors, tax advisors, start their own practices, company secretary, CEO, insurance companies, etc.

Some of the positions mentioned can also be handled by Engineers, but, I believe what Mr Koon says you have a wider choice, and I agree that what an engineer can do in a specific engineering field, an accountant may not be able to do it.

As for FINANCIAL EDUCATION, everyone can do it, be it doctor, engineer, SPM leavers, journalist, reporter as long as they have the heart to learn it, just like PIANO. What is more important is that students MUST ask around the specific people for their advice, the options available for each type of course offer. No point agreeing or disagreeing to the opinion that what other people said, explore it with guidance of those who work in other industry.

@stockoperator, how to you explain when icap trade at a premium of 20%, 70% invested, 30% cash? So, you going to call it Future Premium Cash Value? thanks for the joke. lmao

1. SILK went into PN17 many years back because the traffic is much lower than the projections by EXPERT. How could we value the road when NPV is NEGATIVE.

2. The traffic up to 2013, only achieve what it was supposed to be projected in 2004, hence, get SILK into trouble. They are about 9 years behind in term of traffic. Hence, with the new traffic volume, a much more conservative calculation by MIB. It cannot be compared with other highway because each has different traffic volume, cost, number of interchanges, etc. It is very subjective to calculate the NPV of toll road (who knows the traffic growth for next 20 years, even the so called expert were out by 9 years). Hence, a conservative approach is used. Even the smartest investor make mistake.

3. Just look at it from a business prospective it cannot go wrong too much. BUY OSV biz, get TOLL biz free.

1.Without doing the details, the analyst gives the NPV value of the road about RM380m (lets not debate on this, a few variables used, subject to changes). Not many can see this value yet because it is making losses at the moment. The cost of construction is about RM800m. Not forgetting, they have loans and convertible.

2.Similarly, the profits from the OSVs is not fully reflected, partly because of dry docking, new vessels not fully utilised, and 4 vessels only owns 51%. Until the profit is normalised at RM30m, in about one or two years time. Similarly, OSVs have loans, hence, when they pay down gradually, then only the full profits will be reflected.

3.Hence, the value is not fully reflected today. I am looking at Silk more from the business perspective (having consider loan and convertible). Just like if you buy a property at 90% loan, your net worth is not huge until you pay down substantially your loan. You cannot used the cost of the property to calculate your net worth. Have to be patient a bit.

This stock would worth 120 sen in 3 years. You can make some doing trading. You may even lower your cost of investments.

So far, only 2 analysts cover this stock. Based on their analysis, the growth in earnings is 25% to 30% p.a. It is rather aggressive (for next 3 years). The MD has announced in the press that he expect 15% growth in EPS for 2014. I believe it is very conservative and he can easily achieve more than 15%.

Let us say the compounding long term growth is 15% p.a. (>5 years), the price would double in a few years time.

Catalyst for the growth:
1. DeCentrum
2. Oil and Gas
3. Low Cost housing for governments
4. Expected more maintenance job for highways

The existing earnings now is about RM48m. The based is low, the contribution from DeCentrum can double it in a few years time.

Stocks is traded between PE of 4-6 past few years, earnings is flat at RM10m p.a. (for many years), dividend yield of about 5%. NTA is double the traded price at RM1.00. Hmmm, may consider a swap.

profit announced up 30%, share price drop, hmm…..

If we over analyse the financial, we will be concern, because, you have to consider the conversion of some of its loan into equity, which will dilute the EPS

Best, if we look at it from a business perspective. CONSTRUCTION of ROAD is fully paid (loan is restructured and cash flow can handle). Next, volume is growing 12% and continue growing.

SIMILARLY, the earnings of OSVs not fully reflected. They have just bought the balance of 49% of 4 vessels and 2 or 3 new vessels (deliver gradually) and not FULLY utilised. And, today's OSV rate is not at its peak, in the mid way.

Wow, today climb 17%, very impressive. Lets see any announcements or reports on SILK this weekend.

Besides Protasco, SILK is also doing well. Both have potential of growth. One with good track records, the other restructured into toll plus OSVs. If you are patience, can double in 2-3 years for both stocks because both are UNDERVALUED!

Silk is up 10% today. Protasco is, waiting?

Good thing about this type of stock, no analysts will look at it at the moment. Hard to sell, because its toll road is making losses and its OSV is not in full capacity.

Two surprises you will get
(a) when toll roads turn positive in one or two years time (improving 5-6m p.a.)
(b) when OSV is in full utilisation (purchase of 49% balance + new vessels)

If have time, trade 10%, hold 90% for long term (2-3 years, actually this is short term for me)

1. Frankly, it is quite tough to know whether the place will turn out to be a magnet or barren land. However, if we look at it logically, with new infrastructure (NEW HIGHWAYS) and possible line 2 MRT, and the speed of development is under the control of Protasco, probability is better. They are not far from Putrajaya and Cyberjaya.

2. Even expert can be wrong, because many years back, they cannot predict the NEW HIGHWAYS (unless they have the blue print) or MRT station. I was told landed property is selling about RM700k.

3. The trick is actually up to the developer, once the INFRASTRUCTURE is in. Look at Bandar Utama, look at Setia Alam, look at Kota Damansara. These places is once upon a time plantation land with LOUSY access.

4. With proper planning, since the entire land belongs to Protasco, chances are GOOD that it is make into a GREAT CITY. Of course it takes years.

1. There is a long write up from this week Edge by the MD on DeCentrum. The progression from Construction and trading of building materials to become a developer, give Protasco some competitive edge.

2. Just a very simple calculation from DeCentrum, RM10 billion, say in 20 years (MD said 10-15 yrs), hence, yearly GDV = RM500m p.a.. Conservatively, assumed profit of 20%, expected profit is RM100million p.a over a period of 20 years.

3. Protasco has other profitable businesses, construction of low cost housing for Government, about RM600m. (assumed over 5 years, say PBT of 10%, contribute RM12m pa.)

4. Maintenance of roads based on last 2 years PBT of 80-120m p.a.

3. Oil and Gas, guarantee profits of about RM20m p.a.

4. Educations make about RM2m for last two years.

5. OK, long term profits (average), p.a.
Property Development = RM100m
Construction of Government housing = RM12m
Maintenance of Roads = RM80m
Oil & Gas = RM20m
Education = RM2m

Total = RM214m

Lets give a more conservative earnings, say, 80% of 214m, average = RM170m

6. Capitalisation of RM170m x PE of 12 times = RM2.1 billion. Today market cap it RM630m.

7. Conclusion: Buy, with good upside and limited downside, dividend yield of 6% p.a. Have not consider the free warrants 1:10.

1. Investor need to know if you invest at 40sen, there is no risk, the company will return you the money with interest (at higher than FD) after 3 years if they cannot get the QA. Let us assumed, after 3 years, they give say 6sen.

2. So, at today's price, you are paying 8 sen (54-46). Hence your max risk is you lose exactly 8 sen if no QA is done in 3 years. I.e. you will lose about 15% of your investment costs.

3. If you look at the UPSIDE, if they do get a QA, say the price will go to RM1.00, your make about 44sen or 79%.

4. The question you ask is whether this MANAGEMENT is worth 8 sen per share. The way I see it, if they don't succeed, their reputation will be at stake. It is a LOSE LOSE situation.

5. So, it is a 8sen vs 44sen, in 2 years time. If you can take a 15% downside, I believe, the reward is there. Every MANAGEMENT will go for a WIN WIN. Of course, the ideal price to go in 40sen, then it is RISK FREE, with a 5%p.a. return.

1. During this challenging time in property market, only the BIG&STRONG developers with strong land banks and cash resources will become stronger because the new developers and smaller developers do not have deep pockets to compete with them.

2. On top of that, bankers will always support the BIG & STRONG rather than new and smaller developers.

3. Even for end financing, bankers are more choosy now, so, if you are a banker with more restrictive from BNM, who would you lend to?

4. Of course, during this period of slowdown, all property stocks are effected, but, the strong ones have little effects, the question now is, should we come back later to property stocks? Like plantation stocks, do you buy them when the CPO price is high or low? Similarly, when the demand slows, supply will also slows, but urbanisation and population will continue to grow and in one or two years time, there will be an imbalance again.

5. Conclusion, some prefer to get in when they see recovery as a whole in the market. No right or wrong in this approach.

PE = 2X, NTA = 2.80, when things are too good to be true, believe it.

This is one of the few stocks that you can double your money in 3-4 years.

It is not an easy task to find a stock that double in 3 years. CAGR is about 24%. Of course, it is very tough to do it for 10,20,30 years. If you buy in 2007, you will get a 30-50% reduction in 2008. However, those who bought fundamentally strong and growth stocks, it will not be a problem. I have a feeling JTiasa can double in 3-4 years, from RM2.00 of course.

Is it correct to say DSonic has about RM800 million contracts in its pocket, to be completed say in 3-4 years? Say profit margin is 40%, it will be RM320million, or RM80m p.a.

1. The Edge has feature the MD's view on its 100 acres land for De Centrum City. The trick is, the speed of the development is under Protasco's control, as the land was bought around 1995 and fully paid.

2. Whether it is developed over 10 years or 15 years, I believe, is hard to tell, it always depends on circumstances, new MRT line 2, recovery of housing after GST and short of supply, urbanisation rate near MRT, new highways to Putrajaya/Cyberjaya etc. The fact is Protasco has sustainability.

3. At 186sen, with dividend of 6 sen, technically your cost is only 180sen. From a fundamental investor perspective it is very attractive, because your dividend yield (assume dividend 12 sen) is 6.4%. The last I check, conventional bank gives about 3.1% p.a. for 12 months FD.

4. Recent run down of small cap stocks and weak sentiment, is a good time to accumulate. Of course, the lower the better.

Today's market looks like fundamental stocks and non-fundamental stocks are down. For those who holds fundamental stocks, there is no worry, either BUY more or just HOLD. For those who buy non-fundamental or popular (overvalued stock with PE of 20-30x), there is not much chances of recovery if the operators are enjoying your money in Brazil World Cup.

Which company is worth more?
(A). A company with RM10 billion contract and a 20% profit margin, done in 10 years;

(B). A company with RM1 billion contract and a 40% profit margin, done in 4 years or

(after the contracts ends, nobody know there will be renewal of contracts, i..e uncertain)

(A) = profit = RM2 billion = RM200m per annum x 10 years

(B) = profit = R400 million = RM100million per annum x 4 years

How much value would you give for (A) or (B) assumed both profits is achievable.

De Centrum, very near Infrastructure University KL is about 8km away from the Kajang MRT(Line 1) station, i.e about 10minutes drive. Development that is near major INFRASTRUCTURE line will have good upside. De Centrum development will have price upside.

This is a great buying opportunity for LT investors.

Oh great, is dropping back to 61 sen. While keeping most of it for long term, you may even trade this a couple of time. It has went up over 68-70 sen a couple of time and came back to about 61 sen.

For long term investors, just keep it and forget about the fluctuation. For those who like to trade a bit, buy around 61sen, dump when it goes close to 70sen, then buy again.

1. If you invest today in Protasco RM100k, after 6 years, you will have RM270k

2. If you save if Fixed deposits RM100k, after 6 years, you will have RM120k.

1.Dividend normally announced twice a year. They hv just announced (Apr), 6sen. Another dividend announcement is in Dec 2014, expected another 6 sen (based on increased cash flow and profits expectation). DY = 12sen/190sen = 6.3%p.a. Fixed Deposits in about 3.0%p.a.?

2. Intrinsic value, EPS expected to double in 3 years. Using Benjamin calculation, assumed Protasco double their EPS in 10 years, hence the CAGR = 7.2%. Intrinsic value = RM2.74 per share. This is based on very conservative projections (worst case).

3. Using a more realistic case, say they double their EPS in 6 years, CAGR = 12%. The intrinsic value = RM3.90 per share.

4. Let's just say the price takes 6 years to double to RM3.80, your capital gain = 12% p.a. & DY = 6% p.a., your CAGR = 18% p.a for 6 years.

5. Buy and keep it. If the price double even before 6 years, then your compounding will be higher. Buy a lot, and keep it.

What did TA Analyst did?

The large discount of market price and the NAV for such a long time does not make logical sense. It is like, say COMPANY A, bought 2 listed companies, worth RM200 million, while the share price of COMPANY A market cap is only RM140m. A huge discount.

Normally, for a Closed End Funds, they trade at a discount during down market (look at our CI is historical high) and trade at a premium when market is reaching its peak.

That explains why the market is NEVER efficient.

Better read their Annual Report. Could be informative.