@okdoke, read The Weekly Edge this week. He referred to a website (I have forgotten)

Thanks @sapura. The question is one, who did not carry out their fiduciary and statutory duties in this case (should return the money and face penalty), two, what is the motive (usually is greed), third, will Protasco be paid back the deposits given?. Hope that minority shareholders will not become the victims, SC should assist in finding the truth and freeze whoever is involved to defraud Protasco.

Lets not hope this is not another Mongolian murder or Opposition suicide MACC case where there is no justice served. I remembered, the Transmile case, the MD got away. SC should be answerable to minority shareholders, as usual, no justice served. What about MSWG? Another barking dog that seldom bites.

@seabiscuit, can share what is written in KiniBiz? Am not a subscriber. If Tey and Ooi didn't do it, who did it, and what is the motive?

Just an analogy, say you stay in SS2, the average terrace house is about RM900k. Due to sentiment (say China property collapse, Singapore and HK also collapse 20-30% in property), one guy, due to too much debt, offer to sell his house in the market for RM600k (for cash buyer only), if you are an investor, would you BUY if you have the money?

I remember 1998 clearly, those who bought Tmn Tun, Bandar Utama or Damansara Jaya houses or any good condos in Mont Kiara, they are LAUGHING to the bank now. The question is, do you have the COURAGE, when the whole world is NEGATIVE? Well, if your margin of safety is good, why not? Of course, unlike shares you can do regular investment, big item like PROPERTY, it is TIMING that makes big bucks. You may argue, there are REITS around, yes, perhaps you can consider that.

If you observe, most second and third liners (small cap) drop at the same time, disregarding any changes to the fundamental of the company.

So, it is effected by sentiment or fear due to the USA, Europe, Asia markets drop.

For Protasco, other than the O&G issue of potential write down of investment is only 15sen (or RM50m), the share price has dropped 43sen or market cap wipe out RM144 million. Of course, there is an element of BOD's integrity at play.

Option 1 - rationally, price over reacted to the downside + global sentiment are in fear (fundamental remains) so can slowly accumulated

Option 2 - depending on whether the sentiment continue to drop, if yes, then don't buy yet, wait until sentiment reverse. i.e. not to catch a knife when falling.

Option 3 - DY now is about 6.8% based on RM1.47. Can buy for dividend, spread into 3 attempts i.e. say you want to invest RM10k, buy RM3.3k first. If drop another 10%, add. If continue, then add another RM3.3k.

OPTION 2 is the SAFEST (if already hold a lot of Protasco), let the negative sentiment play out first, we do not know how long it takes. (but this is TIMING the market isn't it?) Yes, although I do not advocate TIMING the market, unless you have UNLIMITED funds, Protasco remain a Long Term BUY. I personally will only average when it is down one third and no major change in fundamental.

@Flinstones, you are spot on that he has a bigger name than real results. This is what we called perception. Actually I personally don't idolize him (If I use Mr Thomas Lim of ABC Mutual Funds, nobody will know him), I am using a "bottom up" stock picking technique that does not take "timing" as a main factor in deciding the value of the said stock. Similarly, I can use Warren Buffett (not my idol either), to elaborate a point.

What I wanted to say, many layman, like to use "timing" as the only factor in deciding to invest or not, while, they do not conduct any homework or research for undervalued stock. When the market really collapsed, when you go back and ask them, are your ready to invest, they are not, because they do not know what to invest (no research done) or saying market will fall further as an excuse. If they are smart and good with timing, wouldn't they make tonnes of money when market is down, or short the market to make lots of money.

If you look at Mark Mobius performance, you may have a shock of your life. That is why, news are spread without being investigated, just move from one to the next, that is why Madoff did well (no one bother to verify how he did it until something goes wrong).

Crude oil is now about USD86 per barrel. For every drop of USD1 per barrel, how much savings in fuel for AAX? Any analyst done this calculation?

Warren Buffett said don't spend time to predict the market direction, inflation trend, interest rates, or election outcome.

When we look at share market, PE is only one of the important factors, what about currency, interest rates, beta (volatility), inflationary trends, debt structure, and international reserves, AND government policy.

Gary Shillings has been right since 1981, about the bond market, interest rate dropped from 15% to less than 3% for 10 year treasuries. He made a compounding of >28% over this period of time 1981-2009. He believe we are entering the age of deleveraging, USA average 3.7% p.a. before 2009 is over. The next 10 years, he believe the average growth rate in USA is about 2% p.a. and even the 10 year treasuries will continue to go down from 3.5% to 2.5%.

Let us not spend too much time to predict the market (it is too dynamic and complex, even 90% of full time expert cannot get it). Focus on looking for VALUE STOCKS. As individual investors, we have some advantage over FUND MANAGERS managing hundreds of MILLIONS. Individual investors has different characteristics.

DIGI provides a CAGR of 28% p.a. for the last 10 years. Why not take some money out of EPF and invest in it. Over next 10 years, I believe 15% p.a. is achievable.

Last 10 years EPF provides about a CAGR 5.5%. So your RM100k will become RM170k - bravo. If you buy DIGI using EPF, you will get about RM1.0 million today.

For next 10 years DIGI can deliver a CAGR 15% p.a., your RM100k will become RM400k, instead of about RM170k in EPF. (can be done, www.sosfinancialplanning.blogspot.com)

The impact from the o & g is not significant, but can't really place a value on the integrity of the BOD. The issue need to be resolved ASAP, until then, just get the dividend.

TP ranges from, 2.80, 3.40, 3.50 and 3.90. Average target price is about RM3.40, based on today's price, there is a potential upside of 80 sen or 31%, by end of this year or early next year. The low pricing is mainly due to EPF unload, they will buy back later. It is a Syariah stock.

One of the stronger property with strong cash flow, large land bank, stable (no problem is there is crisis), experience and with strong growth of at least 15% for next couple of years. It may be snap up soon. The family bought a lot at RM2.60-2.70.

Good choice. I remember Tong Kooi Ong bought this shares as well. Templeton waited 5 years, and it just started to move. If what said Templeton bought it in 2009, it is only RM1.00, and today is RM4.66. Wow, if it did goes to say RM7.00, Templeton did a good job. Btw, Ben, what other stocks did Templeton buy in the last 4-5 years but didn't move yet? It may be worthwhile to do a research.

NAV is 3.05. Price today is 2.43. 62 sen upside, or 25% upside? Weird isn't it? RM350billion invested in Unit Trusts (or about 10 million people), they can accept Unit Trust to be valued at NAV, but for closed end funds, they think otherwise? Is it really that important when you are right, instead of what you are right?

If this prolong for say another 2 more years, I believe, everyone will be happy to vote that this fund be closed and distribute out the 62sen. (86 million) as SPECIAL DIVIDEND. After all, it is tax free.

Instead of selling 6.4% only, Insas should sell 50%, or 18.2%. Take the 50:50 road. Say you make RM300m gain in cash, put into FD, 4%, you will get additional interest RM12m per annum. As for what to use for the other 50%, that is another issue altogether. I hv wrote about this before, like icap, Insas is trading at a discount to its NAV. This is how market works.

Market is never efficient, so, opportunity arise. Sometimes like what Warren Buffett said, it is more important that you are right about what than when.

PE has been used to compared with the past which is fine, but, one must see from the perspective of BANK INTEREST RATE as well (of course there are other factors, CURRENCY, BETA, DY. In Malaysia, household debt is 86%, because, we are in the lowest interest regime era. Many years back, interest average at 8%, now about 4% it is same as getting a RM300m loan, now is RM600m loan, and total repayment more or less same.

During the peak on 20 Aug, 739 million shares are transacted in a day. average price is 30 sen before peaking to 60 sen. Now 40 sen. Just another speculative stocks without much fundamental, I think.

dear chowkw xxxxx Bond Fund (commenced 1997 or 17 years) provided about 5.5%. For equity, due to the risk involved, long term return should be around 10% p.a. The reason UT get a lot lower than that is mainly the fee, 5.5%,.1.5%, 0.5%, 0.2%, 0.03%, (service fee, management fee, trustee fee, broking fee, custodian fee, some have performance fee, and a few hidden fee. Let us not compared with Warren Buffett, what is expected from Equity return for Long Run taking into account the risk?

Will consider if it drop below 64 sen, the yield p.a. is 6.25%p.a. if they don't get any QA in 3 years. Then again, even if they get the QA, have to value the QA. Another round of "evaluating". No guarantee that the QA is fantastic unike Hibiscus.

HLIB valued it at 79sen using the DCF method. It it like buying a condo, with rental sufficient to pay back loan instalment, and after discounting, still worth around 80 sen. Upside is 45%, downside, I suppose, if oil price crash i.e. drop > 30%, then have to reevaluate.

Crude oil (WTI) dropping to 92.86 . If it continue to move down, more great news for aviation biz.

perhaps that is one of the reasons the price didn't move much until this oil and gas issue is resolved. I believe Protasco must update its shareholders, at least has a timeline, else, not so great for the share price or the company. Else, this company is doing ok, used to do about RM40m over last few years, and with DeCentrum, over next few years expected to be RM70-80m. 20-25% earning growth is good for the company and the share price. Management should update the development of the oil and gas deal soonest possible.

Why then 80% of RM350 billions goes into UTs? Aren't the investors are more well informed with internet nowadays? Why don't they try the BETTER ALTERNATIVE available?

The BETTER ALTERNATIVE are not concerns on restrictions on concern of liquidity of stocks, high marketing expenses and advertisements, short term rankings or awards, other investors pulling out of funds or good fund managers are pinched.

All you need is actually a right strategy, commitment and a qualified financial advisor to guide you. The tool is already there.

Volume is up. That is good news. Lets hope it sustain.

I meant rejected RSPO on item 3.

Based on facts and experience about Indonesia implementing new policies:
1. Banks (executed)
2. Shippings (foreign cannot hold more than 49% - implemented in 2010)
3. Someone mentioned about aluminium smelting biz restriction (executed)
4. Implemented ISPO and rejected ISPO
5. Implemented Bio-diesel

Many in the shipping line thought that the Indonesia would delay its implementation, and many were shock when they actually implemented it and many foreign ship operators suffers.

Similarly for plantation, it will not be surprise if they approve it sooner than later. This is based on the past trend and experience of Indonesia government. They don't care good for them or bad for them, as long as it gets votes.

Today technical reports by Kenanga & RHB, bullish on Protasco. Next level, 1.96 & 2.02 (support at 1.63). Just a technical view. Sometime ok, sometime not. Mainly due to surge in price yesterday with high volume as well.

What is your worst case? DY 6% p.a.? Best case, growth in earnings by RHB 40%-50% for FY14-15. Hopefully translate into capital gain. One of the few growth stocks with reasonable DY.

I thought I have shown the group of stocks that achieved 19% p.a. for the last 10 years. @ JT, what else can you expect? Free Tips again? My apology I do not have the crystal ball for the next 10 years, I am just showing the principle that ONE can achieve if they choose the WONDERFUL companies at a FAIR price. Btw, what are you trying to find out? Do share, so I can include into my article so you can benefit from it. sorry to let you down…..take care.

MIDF projected March 2015, profit RM98m. Most companies, where the prices have gone up a lot on the anticipation of increase in earnings. So, basically for the next few months, these companies is catching up on their earnings to be in line with the analysts. Failing which, it will be dumped.

I totally agree with your analysis. The issue is when will it catch up. Say, for a simpler analogy, share NAV is RM1.00 and the share price is RM0.80, which is exactly 20% discount.

1.If it takes one year to say catch up, your return is 20%.
2.if it takes 2 years to catch up, your average return is about 10% p.a.
3. if it takes 3 years to catch up, your average return is say, about 6%

They has been selling at discount for a couple of years. Of course, the share price did goes up over the years. Lets see the fact, in 2010 you can buy it at RM1.74 and today is RM2.44, you make a killing of RM0.70 or 40% in 3 years. That is not bad, the compounding return of 12%.

So, if you buy today, would the iCapital give you 12% p.a. for the NEXT 3 years, well, it is anybody's guess. Of course, if you FIND a company that provides an upside of MORE THAN 40% over the next 3 years, then you should allocate it to the other company.

Risk is pretty low now to buy iCap because of the 20% discount (theoretically this is not logical) but it is a FACT. If your HORIZON is very LONG TERM HORIZON, say more than 5 years, price will continue to go up disregard the gap is narrowed. But, like anything else, there is a RISK, best buy it over time.

Just for discussion. Analsyts said that the performance of AAX will depends on the competition, crude oil price, forex and capacity growth.

AAX should improve because, it is more competitive due to slower capacity growth (for 2H14) and getting new plane which is more productive (coming in soon), crude oil price has dropped to USD93per barrel recently from USD100 over per barrel.

Not sure about forex, fundamentally AAX should IMPROVE if crude oil continue to drop.

Actually how high the price of IOIPG can go up depends on the perception of the investors (institutional especially). IOIPG has the "results to prove" sooner or later, what analysts do is to explain the why(s) it goes up. Well, 8 sen dividend is a good start (3.4% DY).

It depends from which angle you look at IOIPG, from the positive side,
1. Low gearing, resilient during this market
2. High RNAV (whether discount 20%, 30%, 40% or 50% is just a subjective matter from the analyst)
3. Blue chip, High liquidity, within institutional funds radar
4. IOIPG's ownership of land at lower price compared with others, has some competitive advantage
5. It has earning growth potential, problem is timing, it takes longer during this challenging environment for properties (it has higher profit margin than others).

Why EPF sell and why the OWNER buy? They have their own reasons, but their reasons does not has any major effect on the FUNDAMENTAL of IOIPG. Of course, I did not name all its weaknesses.

A common expectation of any stock that a buyer bought must goes up within a certain time as what the buyer anticipate. Failing which, they will be cursing. Well, then you have to look back at your original objective, if you said, 6 months must goes up 20%, then it didn't meet their objective.

For this particular stock, I believe, must be more patient, mainly due to the government tightening. Of course, for buyer that don't have time on their side, should sell and buy some shares that he or she think can goes up 20% in 6 months. But honestly, how sure are we?

Some says ca, cb, cc, cd or all other structured warrants is for Financial Institution to hedge their position. Some suspect it is to make money from derivatives, as there is not much volume in structured warrants. Of course, if share price goes up say 10 or 20sen, the structure warrants may goes up say 2 or 3 sen. However, risk is pretty high, due to expiry date on 30 Jan 2015.

Sona needs a good IR (which currently not there) to explain and clarify its investment in detail. Otherwise, it gets the wrong market perception. In this area, SONA did not do a good job.

At today's price, the dividend yield is about 5.7% (10 sen per share). Protasco's new earnings from constructions and property biz is still intact, but may be less aggressive due to the current environment, but, given time, the profits will come in the next few years (while holding on to the dividend of 5.7%). It's property near Uniten in Kajang where the MRT2 station is situated will appreciate over time and good for its future launches. Should it goes lower, it would be great to accumulate to get the dividend yield while waiting for the earning growth.

speakup, I agree with you, you can get oil assets cheaper when crude oil price drop, but the industry may not be so upbeat, profits will drop as well. Similarly to dry bulk, one can say since the dry bulk index has dropped say from 11,000 to 1,000 and you can get cheaper dry bulk ship, but, there is no market for them due to low charter rates and glut in the industry. Anyway, it is a trillion dollar question.

Result just came out. Depends on which angle we see it. If you see from the rear mirror and project from there, it is gloomy. If you see from your front windscreen, crude oil price has drop, new planes provide higher productivity, restructuring by MAS provide opportunity for AAX, cash flow is improving. So, depends which angle we want to see it. One's threat is another's opportunity.

Unlike MAS, I believe the management of AAX can turn around the loss situation into profit. Don't forget oil price is not about USD95/b and Ringgit is also appreciated, this is positive news for AAX. More importantly, they has cash flow positive.

Hmm, how come no one try to do a valuation on SONA since they already have purchase a QA? The QA already making money, why was the reaction from the market is negative? Some say lack of transparency.

SPAC is worth what the cash per share injected. The intrinsic value (also another subjective matter) can only be estimated when the QA acquisition is completed. The premium traded is the "perceived premium", or I like to call it derivatives (without underlying assets, just like the Reach warrants, which can we wipe out if there are adverse conditions). Until QA is identified, anyone can speculate. I wonder what happen if crude oil drop to say USD70 per barrel (say in 2-3 years), does it mean MOST of the oil and gas play is over? So, basically the barometer will be the crude oil price.

IOIPG will be the favourite when other overvalued big cap stocks correct. Like its plantations, its ROE is higher because they own lands that are bought many years ago. That is why it deserve higher PE, especially when there is a slowdown, the smaller developer will suffer (mainly on financing). Earnings are delayed due to RPGT introduced by Government.

During Badawi time, I remember there are so many corridors mega projects. Somehow, Malaysia success rate with mega projects is low, our government implementation somehow weak, like Kulim Hi-Tech park, MSC, any many white elephants. It could be due partly to lack of coordination and in-depth study or too much red tapes. Our blueprints can be said the Best in the world.

Read the Top Articles today on Reach - Initial Public Offer or Internal Party Organizing? Interesting article and analysis.

New broom sweeps well is the best analogy for SPACs. In theory, there is no logic of paying a RM1.35 for a company who only have cash per share of RM1.00 for SPACs, while ICap NAV is RM3.05 (50% listed shares and 50% cash) is traded at RM2.45, a discount of 20%?

Well, Randomtrading provided a great analysis on who gain about RM200mil? The selected investors. And the public loves it. Hibiscus did well while SONA and CLIQ is yet to show anything eventhough SONA has the QA. Well, bottom line, stocks and securities is part science, part art, part perception and part GAMBLE, part legal con job. Lets not spit hair over it.

Should ask Tan Sri Liew Kee Sin to do a SPAC on property, and Tan Sri Lee Sin Cheng to do a SPAC on plantation. SPACs was a failure in Australia and some other countries (not verified).

A report indicates that the supply of residential properties in Iskandar is about 30 times of Mon't Kiara. Not sure demand can catch up that fast, because Mon't Kiara takes 20-30 years to fill up.

Kenanga's report said that TSH has 88% and CBIP has 100% plantations in Indonesia. Draft bill to slash foreign ownership is bad news for owner(s) of plantations over Indonesia, similar to the banking industry. Risk of doing biz in Indonesia.

@ykloh, I am just making an analogy that investment is part science, part art and part perception. So, it goes up and down, depends whether the market like oil & gas during certain period of time or like construction or property industry. Just like Maybulk, when dry bulk was in the bull market, they make super profit, when the industry was glut, charter rates dropped like a rock.

As for Protasco a loose cannon, Protasco is in construction and maintenance of roads, trading and manufacturing of building materials, engineering and consultancy as well as property development, it is all related business. Only odd one out, is the education biz and the oil & gas biz they are trying to buy (but cancelled). When you mentioned O&G biz is highly speculative and riddled with corruption, are you only referring to Protasco or Coastal included?

I remember costal went up from RM2.10 to RM2.90 and the dropped back to about RM1.80, dropped about 35% and today is about RM5.20. The funny part was, when the price drop, the earnings actually improve and no major adverse news.

I can see the frustration came from the mismatch of expectations. Double check if any major adverse events that affect the company or the estimated projected intrinsic value. I think the analyst has reiterated no major impact after the sale of shares by directors and the cancellations, unless insider know a lot more information that is not that good.