Ethylene prices decline in Asia on Tuesday

:: 25 Oct 2017 ::

Ethylene prices in Asia on Tuesday witnessed a drop.

The price fall was in line with sufficient product availability in the region.

CFR North East Asia prices of ethylene were assessed lower at the USD 1270/mt levels, a day on day decline of USD 10/mt.

CFR South East Asia prices of ethylene were assessed down at the USD 1150/mt levels, a fall of USD 10/mt from Monday�s assessed levels.


http://www.apic-online.org/top_story.asp?ID=10174

Raw material is naptha (however, it is not ASIA price but should be similar trend):
http://markets.businessinsider.com/commodities/naphtha

Btw, the raw material price is not the only key point.... need to know the crack spread, (naptha - etlyne price), i dunno where to see.

Shit, start dropping...

@Deslim, i know.. but Even take off the factory maintenance thingy, the profit will be only 300+? Not better than last year.

Most important is this 2 sentence in their commentary on prospects on next quarter:

"While olefins and derivative are expected to be slightly bearish as supply improved on the completion of regional cracker planned turnaround."

"Indonesia polyethylene plant load will remain low until polyethylene economics return."

Doesn't sounds too good.

Not sure if really impressed with the result or not ...

Net profit is only 230mil... much lowered than last yr same Q... although it has improved compared to previous Quarter.

“However, the third quarter will have some one-offs relating to its listing expenses and the total return equity swap of its listed Indonesian unit. Excluding these items, we forecast that the underlying performance will be positive,” it said in a note.


Hmmm... got one - off listing expenses.... TRES.... mayb the profit will not be good-looking..

https://www.thestar.com.my/business/business-news/2017/10/26/better-lotte-chemical-results-likely/


PETALING JAYA: Maybank IB Research expects an improvement in Lotte Chemical Titan Holding Bhd’s upcoming financial results for the third quarter ended Sept 30, 2017 (3Q17).

According to the research house, Lotte Chemical’s 3Q17 results look promising on the back of strong average selling price of its petrochemical products, smooth resumption of its NC1 plant’s production and higher plant utilisation rates.

Maybank IB Research reiterated its “buy” call on the company, with an unchanged target price of RM7.85.

“Things are reverting to normal for Lotte Chemical and the 3Q17 results should be in line with market expectations.

“However, the third quarter will have some one-offs relating to its listing expenses and the total return equity swap of its listed Indonesian unit. Excluding these items, we forecast that the underlying performance will be positive,” it said in a note.


Lotte Chemical recorded a significant fall in both its 2Q17 revenue and net profit, that was caused by a scheduled plant turnaround and a water supply cut that disrupted operations of its plants in Johor.

As a result, the counter fell by nearly 23% to RM4.70 on the same day of the company’s financial results announcement.

Lotte Chemical, which made its debut on the Main Market of Bursa Malaysia in July, saw its net profit in 2Q17 drop by nearly 72% year-on-year (y-o-y) to RM113.62mil. The petrochemical manufacturer’s top line also narrowed by 11% y-o-y in the quarter.

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Maybank IB Research said Lotte Chemical’s recovering production volume may act as a boost to the company’s earnings.

“The management says that production volumes have gradually recovered from the low levels in 2Q17. The NC1 plant’s turnaround process was completed as planned and the ramp-up process was smooth.

“In total, NC1 was offline for 33 days only and we forecast plant utilisation rates to hover between 74% and 78%. We forecast that product margins in 3Q17 to be at RM994 per tonne, which is 10.7% lower y-o-y and 6.5% lower quarter-on-quarter,” said the research house.

With regard to a series of incidents in its TE3 project, Maybank IB Research did not foresee any impact on Lotte Chemical’s financials in the third quarter.

On Oct 1, the TE3 project site received a stop-work order from the Department of Environment following odour emission and surface oil sheen discharge from its project site into a waste water treatment plant.

The TE3 project refers to Lotte Chemical’s KBR catalytic olefins technology catalytic cracking reactor that will be attached to an existing second naphtha cracker plant in Pasir Gudang, Johor.

“The management is confident it will be able to commission TE3 by 4Q17 as per the original targets and all incidents in TE3 are minor hiccups to its overall progress.

“TE3 should not impact Lotte Chemical’s 3Q17 financials as capital expenditure and incidential costs should be capitalised till ready,” said Maybank IB Research.

At the close of trading yesterday, Lotte Chemical was up by 1.4% to RM5.25. A total of 818,800 shares changed hands.


Read more at http://www.thestar.com.my/business/business-news/2017/10/26/better-lotte-chemical-results-likely/#CyQrrBYLwEeLOlxG.99

https://www.thestar.com.my/business/business-news/2017/10/26/lotte-is-top-pick-in-petrochemicals-sector/

Cheapest petrochem stock in Asian

Based on the sentiment on this share, those who is buying structured warrant will hardly gain.

My current view is that this share need another few mths (hope for the best but plan for the worst)... by the time mother share is going up (if managed to) , structured warrant might not be moving/going down due to current high premium.

Bullshit.

so many cheater here.
Sell n go, believe me.

I have seen few times such operation on other stocks.

Mother stock suddenly fly, warrant not flying (with high discount), then attract "smart people" to buy warrant & convert to mother share.

Those who think they are smarter than operator = loss.

bravo88 buy structured warrant?

I think people are just lack of confidence with them after poor QR & several incidents.. bad sentiment on this share... =.=

If the coming QR is awesome, then everything shall back to fine.. If QR is just ok or bad.... hard to gain investor's confidence.

1 thing about Notion is they are fully covered with the insurance, also covering the potential losses in the business due to failed for production.

In other words, their QR will be more stable, just like pmetal.

Apprentice explanations sounds logic. haha

My advice is, reduce your exposure to reduce your anxiety. If you feel uncomfortable, meaning you are over-exposure and lack of confidence. Rather earn less / loss abit than losing everything if things goes wrong.

Warrant is dangerous...

Must be careful if some1 bought too much LCtitan warrant....
Especially in the current case with high premium and low liquidity/volume.
Suggest to reduce your exposure..

Although the QR is expected to be better than previous quarter, however, it may still lower if compared to last yr same Q result due to the planned maintenance..

I must say Warrant was too hot 2 mths back (when mother rally from about 5 - about 6) and it is always the dangerous sign..

I have seen few hot stocks usually dip for a period after every1 in the market is crazy over the warrant.. e.g. topglove, airasia.

Although those holding mother stock will revive after few mths - half year, but all those trapped in warrant are pain forever.

Once Again...

Airasia Philippines IPO, from initial plan of end of year, delayed to early nxt year, again delayed to mid nxt year....

Still got people dunno wat is TE3 and what is stop work order.

TE3 is new project site, not yet operating, it was scheduled to be operate at H2 2017 (during IPO),

After fire incident, management said the schedule for commencement for TE3 is Q4 2017.

Stop work order is only applying on the affected TE3 site. Management still committed to commence TE3 on Q4 2017 though they received stop work order.

In other word, the consequences of these incidents:

1) Commencement of TE3 delayed by 2-3 mths.
2) 50k to replace burnt cables
3) Some monitoring & reporting works to Department of Environment on the progress of cleaning.

Why suddenly so many ppl posting old news?? LCTitan has released official announcement yet so many old news sharing here.

Also, despite of the fire incident & stop work order, LCTitan still believes that they are able to commencing operation in 4Q 2017.

From the announcements, it seems that the STOP WORK ORDER is applying on the TE3 Project only, which means the existing operation is not affected.

but the order at 5.25 does not transact at all....
Maybe is fake one.. lolz

After being few years time with Tony, I have realised 1 thing.

What Tony always said/planned will eventually materialised, but is always delayed, which is the uncertainty that need to be cautious.

For example, he keep say about commencement of Airasia Japan, delayed..
Turnaround of Philippines & Indonesia, delayed from the timeline he planned earlier,
IPO of Philippines & Indonesia, delayed.
AAC, delayed.

I think all his plans about expansion, vietnam, china will probably delayed also.
However, I believe he will do what he said.

Combining the edge report & company report:

The plant should be commissioning soon, maybe in weeks which is early Q4 2017,

Now to be delayed by 1-3 mths, which hopefully can be commissioned in late Q4 2017.

OK. Based on the edge report, Maybank IB says it is the new plant and might delayed by 1-3 months....

Good news is, at least it wont affect the current productivity, just the expected additional productivity is delayed (but the new capacity is ALOT !! was expected to improve the capacity from 354 KTA to 3,368 KTA... but gone atm....



From THE EDGE:

"TE3 is a new plant which involves the extension of its current facilities in Malaysia. Currently, the plant is undergoing commissioning process ahead of its planned start-up in October this year.

The plant has a nameplate capacity of 354KTA to lift LCT's total capacity to 3,368KTA by this year-end.

Mohshin said this fire will likely delay the start-up process as the management and authorities will carry out their investigation."

I think it's good move to suspend for disclosing the information. But i think it shall be done pre-opening market...

Let people have some idea on what's happening and make own decision.

If its TRUE, then shouldn't have much impact except losses on machineries / repair works... ??

We wish to announce that a small fire broke out at the site of our TE3 Project (i.e. the project for our KBR Catalytic Olefins Technology catalytic cracking reactor that is to be attached to our existing second naphtha cracker plant in Pasir Gudang, Johor, Malaysia) at about 2:23pm on 20 September 2017. The fire was put out at about 2:41pm. We are still in the midst of investigating the cause of the fire.

No one was injured in the incident and all other plants at the Pasir Gudang site were not affected. There is no impact on normal production and all other plants are running normally.

The Company is assesing the financial impact on the Company and will make an immediate announcement once determined.

There is minor damange and we expect the TE3 Project commercial startup to be on track by Q4 2017. We will provide an update on the TE3 Project as soon as possible.

This announcement is dated 21 September 2017

Hopefully the panic sell is over. The current share price has greatly rebounded.

it was David Ang comment yst:


David Ang @azmi800 titan staff said , they are starting up the new plant and catalyst firing happened.
20/09/2017 17:39

News says no injuries or dead...
News says fire under control within 43 minutes..

It happened yesterday 3:25 and put out within 45 mins..... means everything happened/ended before 5 yesterday...

until now still no official press release/statement from lctitan, DAM..

http://www.thestar.com.my/news/nation/2017/09/20/fire-at-pasir-gudang-chemical-plant-brought-under-control/

However, Pasir Gudang Fire and Rescue station chief Ibrahim Omar said the fire was believed to have started from the factory's quench water treatment tanker.

He added that the fire was prevented from spreading to other parts of the factory due to quick action by the department.

"The fire only damaged about five percent of the whole factory area and we managed to control it within 43 minutes," he said.


"There were no injuries or loss of life during the incident as we able to put it out before the fire cause any serious damage," he said.

Ibrahim also said that the department was investigating the cause of fire and the total damage.
Read more at http://www.thestar.com.my/news/nation/2017/09/20/fire-at-pasir-gudang-chemical-plant-brought-under-control/#DpihDHBCrcWYJFVo.99

when everyone hype on call warrant, something bad will happen ... Haiz.

@tftey, where do you check the spread/ price? Mind sharing the link/website?

@Junichiro,

According to Lctitan published presentation on the commentary of their drop in EBITDA comparing 2Q2017 (259mil) & 1Q2017 (491mil),

Water issue contributed 31% of the decline in EBITDA,
TRES valuation loss contributed 27%,
Higher inventory consumption impact resulting from post-turaround stabilisation: 20%,
Lower net sales margin due to lagged product and feedstock effect: 19%.

The group plant utilisation rate was abt 75%+ to 80% (May- June) excluding the maintenance period & water issue period (Feb, March & April)

Therefore, if everything normalise, the net profit might be around 350-400mil? However, there is another maintenance for their 2nd largest plant @ July. These scheduled maintenance is every 4-5 yrs.

BTW, why KEB Hana Bank only arranges $US 540mil loan for the aicraft leasing bid.....

I guess AAC didn't fetch the estimation of $US 1bil as expected earlier... mayb $US 800-900mil??

I dunno, I dun have crystal ball or insider news, it's just my wild guess... But Tony earlier did mention that they wish to bargain for a better price, hence the delayed of disposal of AAC.

Ppl usually wont want to hold over long weekend,
especially high volatile stock like Airasia.

dam supermx...

i hv to cut hand cut leg because of u..
damit.

See losers supermx2, when share price below 3, it's undervalued and ask ppl cut hand cut leg ask ppl sell.

3pm selldown show is incoming?

so, supermx2 has entered at 3.24?

Shhh... everyone.. Don't respond/ spam....
Just observe share price quietly..

This supermx.....
Up 10 sen, diam diam play missing...
Dn 1 sen, terus jump out scare ppl.

supermx is fucker shark.... Buy in HC but earn 20k when share price rise.... 1st time heard of this theory... But he will say, he sold HC at highest then buy mother / call warrant at lowest... thus 20k in a week

Hmm.... Supermx2 "invest" in Airasia - HC, but earn 20k in a week when Airasia mother price up?? Hmm..

I think around 400-500mil is more realistic number...

800mil, unlikely..

There's alot of price war in air fare within this mth.

MAS first come out with 30% mid year promo,
Then Malindo got flash sale & also 2 million seat sale.

Airasia got 50% promo, but i hv checked and it's a cheat.. they mark up price and discount again, check no promo time same price as this "promo"..

Singapore airlines got "surprise" deal this afternoon..

Looks like price war is coming!

Btw, i have just booked my airtickets with MAS & malindo...[The price are same/about RM10 different compared to Airasia, comes with entertainment, legroom, food,no processing fee...]
Frankly speaking, Airasia fare really no cheap nowadays.. Good or bad thing?

Airasia's strength now is have more extensive network and higher frequency. Price wise, really not so competitive nowadays.

**p/s: I'm Airasia shareholder..

DAM U ICON! cause me panic selling that day.

LOL!

SIGN what? TONY are not allowed to sign on sale agreemtn prior EGM on this matters lor...Haha..