Dam Icon....

U caused me less earn so much,

can rebate some money to me or not... >.<''

Btw, i was being trick to unload some of my shares.... However, still gaining, so not too sad...

From Tony Twitter, 5am 12/4/2017:

Investors very happy that we are finally going to CONSOLIDATE . One airline for ASEAN. Also we agreed to have an investors day.

来了来了。。。。
这篇文章一出 = Airasia 上扬的讯号。

I do invest in Airasia and believes that Airasia should be valued at higher price. However, I'm being rational and dun like to Hoo-Ha too much on statement that are not solid.

HKSE provide more opportunity/exposure of Airasia to foreign investor which MAY/MAY NOT uplift their valuation. I think the statement of "Doubling the current price" is a little too exaggerating. Few US airlines that Warren Buffett is investing also fetch at p/e of 7-8 only.

@SharkTank, not necessarily.. HKSE is one of the lowest/cheapest/undervalued market (in term of P/E valuation: HKSE p/e is abt 12, KLSE p/e is abt 15). For bank sector, you can find bank listed in HK only fetch p/e of 5-6 whereas Malaysia Bank fetching 10+ (but the dividend yield is almost same ard 5-6%)

Allaying investors’ concern on RM depreciation, management guided the
stronger earnings in 2017 from capacity expansion (additional 21 A320s), higher ancillary income, strong load factors and low jet fuel costs (hedged 74% of requirement at US$60/bbl in 2017), would more than offset the impact from RM depreciation (Management guided sensitivity of RM20m to earnings for every 10sen change in RM/USD). [Hong Leong Research]

I believe the above statement refers to Operating Profit.

In fact, Airasia claimed that the savings from fuel per barrel from USD 120 drop to USD 55 will only be neglected when USD/MYR = 7.00;
This is true, but not the whole story as we all know that when USD/MYR = 7.00, Airasia will be in huge losses already...

So, i think he is sometime abit tricky in his words.

@wiki123, i dun think AA will get money from listing Indonesia / Philippines. I believe the current structure is AA holds 49% of the airline whereas the local holds the remaining 51%. I believe the new shares comes from enlarged capital, meaning the airline will get the proceed from listing, or, the local disposing some of their shares for the listing.

Unless Airasia is selling their stake, else, AA wont get any money; it will just boost value for AA only.

For those who bought at rm 3.0 , 2,90, 2.80, 2.70, 2.60, 2.50, 2.40, 2.30, 2.20 and and keep holding, assuming if each time he add same number of lots, he will breakeven on 2.60, no need wait till rm3.

RM0.00(excl.GST):4/1 AirAsia cut to Sell from Hold at Deutsche Bank: Bloomberg. At noon, AirAsia down eight sen to RM2.23 with 11m shares done/STARBIZ.

Again attacked by foreign reports. .

R3D3, you are too concerned with fuel hedging...

There's no such thing as hedging too much (as long as it is not more than 100%), especially if you are on the right side. (It will be sad if you are on the wrong side, you will become less cost-competitive, but you wont go bankrupt).

Airasia are selling their air tickets by 6-12 months ahead. How are they going to fix their air ticket price if they are unsure with their operating cost? while fuel price is one of their main operating cost that are fluctuating?

Hedging fuel price actually means you are buying fuel at the current price and asking someone to store it for you 1st before using it. If fuel is something that you are going to use eventually, (just like food is what we are going to eat everyday), there is nothing such as "hedging too much".

E.g. If you eat Koko Crunch every morning and you now saw Aeon is having discount for Koko Crunch. You should then buy alot of it and store it in your storeroom (provided that you are sure that you can consume all before expiry date).

Jollybee, CalvinTan is showing wrong numbers to trick ppl who do not study quarter reports/annual report.

Let me show you the truth:

In latest 3Q2016, Property, plant and equipment = 10,927,645
- Depreciation of property, plant and equipment = (193,084) for 1 Quarter or (552,872) for 3 Quarter,

Therefore, annualised depreciation will be 7-8 %.

Btw, there is no need of guessing how many % depreciation have they done. You can get it on the annual report which has been audited/setup by Accredited Accountant.

"Significant parts of an item of property, plant and equipment are depreciated separately over their estimated useful lives in accordance with the principle in MFRS 116 ‘Property, Plant and Equipment’. Depreciation is calculated using the straight-line method to write-off the cost of the assets to their residual values over their estimated useful lives."

(e) Property, plant and equipment (continued)
The useful lives for this purpose are as follows:
Aircraft
- engines and airframe excluding service potential 25 years
- service potential of engines and airframe 8 or 13 years
- Aircraft spares 10 years
- Aircraft fixtures and fittings Useful life of aircraft or remaining lease
term of aircraft, whichever is shorter

Buildings
- simulator 28.75 years
- hangar 50 years

Motor vehicles 5 years
Office equipment, furniture and fittings 5 years
Office renovation 5 years
Simulator equipment 25 years
Operating plant and ground equipment 5 years
In-flight equipment 5 years
Training equipment 5 years

For more info, go to Airasia Annual Report 2015 (pg 167): http://www.airasia.com/cdn/docs/common-docs/investor-relations/annual-report-2015.pdf



Now, I'm showing plain words that is easy to understand, is there still any doubt on the depreciation? If they are showing these are the standards that have been adopting in accounting, but in actual fact using 0.001% only, feel free to report them.

CalvinTang's depreciation based on committed debt/loan/purchase from on the 400 Nos of new Airbus. The raw material of the airplanes are now still kept in mountain, how the hell is Airasia going to depreciate it?

HAHAHAHAHAHA......

I hope batu will eat vege for 2 month (USD 1.4B)...
Btw, its not purely about how much AAC can sell,
it is also how much premium can Tony sell it (how many times of book ratio).

Say if the airplane was worth 1.2bil in book value, if he is selling with 1bil only, nth to happy with.
If it worth 1bil in book value, but able to sell with 1.2x book value, then can happy.

Maybank analysts believes it will only fetch 1.0x book value. Alliance analysts says 1.4x book value baru can consider as surprise deal...

Or.... mayb they want to sell? Haha..
Btw, after the private placement, i think the % hold by them will be about 32%? If they buy now (if alot) and get private placement later, they will exceeded shareholding of 33%, then they need to offer for take-over according to Bursa rules? (Although the offer might not be real offer as they have no intention for privatise.)

Airasia Japan is currently burning alot of cash... Especially on last quarter. (>.<)

Looks like the confirmation on the 600m contract will not be concluded in this month. . . .

@Darth, this company is not going to declare dividends in 3 year-time (the Director even publicly informed that on news), they are lack of cash now (they are even looking to call for another private placement). If you are purely look at dividend, there's alot of stock out there for you to pick.

Asking dividends payout for a company which is lack of cash is just not logical.

@batu88, operating cost will also affected with weaken RM;
Though fuel hedged at USD 55/barrel, there is differences when the currency floats.

When 1USD = RM 3.9, fuel = RM 214.5/barrel
When 1USD = RM 4.1, fuel = RM 225.5/barrel

This will translates into 5% differences in fuel price, even though they are both hedged at 1 barrel = USD 55.

Assume fuel cost is about 35% of the total cost of Airasia (it was up to 50%-60% or even higher when fuel price was high that time), the total operating margin erosion = 5%*35% = 1.75%

For example, if based on previous quarter result,
Operating margin = 15.4%;
Which is calculated by 425.6mil (operating profit) / 2,767.3mil (Revenue) = 15.4%,

If this margin is erroded by 1.75% = 13.6%, (40 mil) is quite a significant sum.

I also emailed Vivocom's IR on other matter 2 days ago, also no respond....
Guess they are not doing good job with their IR.

Btw, alot of company also ignore/ no respond from their IR. I ever emailed to few company, chances of getting respond from them is about 30%....

@longnian, I was a Matrix Shareholder also. Their presentation slides always give clear information on their operating situation.

However, most of the construction company/ property developer (80% mayb) are not sharing their information in such a detailed way [How many projects, project location, each project's GDV/contract size, takes up rate/ completion % for each project etc.]

Most of the company only announce their lump sum outstanding orderbook/unbilled sales in their quarter report only. Some company doesn't even announced these info at all.

Vivocom is scheduled to publish QR on 29/8/2016 (Monday)

BTW, guys... Though i own Airasia and like TunePro....I wish to say that TunePro's result doesn't really able to translate into Airasia's potential gain... It is not FAIR to say so.

1) TunePro is not purely doing Travel Insurance for Airasia only. They have few subsidaries/segment of business... Increase PAT of 60% doesn't means they got 60% more business in travel insurance, it can be due to decrease in claim or contribute by other segments.

2) Increase in Travel Insurance does not necessarily = increase in traffic volume. It can be some people doesn't buy Travel Insurance before, but due to recent terrorist attack/flight missing incident, people tend to purchase Travel Insurance.

I own Airasia and like TunePro, but, I wish readers can stay calm and understand the fact.

MOST RIDICULOUS REASON IS : REASON NO. 6

[For this cause there will be both metal fatigue due to more wear and tear due to the very frequent use of planes. This also create stress for the pilots. So accident do happen. Making these airlines high risk undertakings. Once a plane crashes share price will nose dive. When 2 planes crashed into New York Twin Towers in Sept Eleven even Singapore Airline shares crashed by 50%]


2 Planes crashed into World Trade Center is not because of metal fatigue, is because of terrorist attack.
Airlines share price dive is because everyone afraid the same tactic (terrorist attack via airplane) will be replicate elsewhere again. FYI, whole world stock market crashes that day...

Afraid that the more we expected from the quarter result, the more disappointment we will get later... When every1 anticipated bright result, say 18 mil, if they manage to get 17mil (still dam good), but...

Ya, from May - Sep = paying full tax ? ~_~

Haizzz... bo kick at all >.<

Heard the sibu contract award will be announce soon.

Private placement usually is below market price de lor..

There's is no conflict in raising fund & declaring dividend. It's nothing new that a company in debt declaring dividend, to provide sweet to investor. Else, if the share price not performing, do you think Banks will be interested to borrowing $ to the company? Private Placement will want to buy?

Mayb is funding for Japan Airasia? lolz

Got sources that HSL is going to secure "Sibu Flood Mitigation Project" (Ph.3) which worth around 300mil. The earlier Ph 1 & 2 were done by HSL.

After such a huge volume transaction done, price still not moving -.-

The average rubber price for Dec 2015- Feb 2016 is RM3.5/kg for bulk latex.
Average for March = RM 3.9/kg and still in trending up...

1st week of March = RM 3.6/kg,
2nd week of March = RM 3.9/kg
3rd week of March = RM 4.1/kg

Today 18/3/2016 = RM4.3/kg. This gonna hurt alot if Management didn't pass the cost to their customer.

我也稍微亏损脱手了。

1）虽然我不期望这季业绩比上季好，但我的期望是115-125mil。可惜只有105mil。

然而，真正的担忧是下一季 （3月-6月）

2）在这两个星期，马币比起上季相较比较强了。

3）这几天的橡胶价格也开始涨了。

4）重点是，管理层说暂时不考虑提高 ASP，那么利润会进一步压缩。

下季的消息

5）新工厂的投入。

6）收购案。
建议：大家即使不打算清完，可以准备减码的动作。惟，股价不一定和业绩呈正比。无可否认，Topglove 长期肯定会是好公司。但现在每天受汇率/油价的波动，也是很伤神。。胶价会不会再起也是未知数。。

*So, it was 450m, not 130-180mil that I wrote earlier (this is revenue, not profit)

If not mistaken, I previously calculated the savings in jet fuel will be abt 400mil+ for this yr, translating around 100mil+ each quarter. (savings in 100mil of cost will be increasing in 75mil of profit, due to deduction of tax, if u know what i mean).

Thurston,

The 1 you listed is Expenses, not the Revenue.
Airasia charged his associate for doing aircraft maintenance.

Based on Alliance Report on 29th Feb,
4Q15 topline of RM2.17bn (+47% y-o-y, +43% q-o-q) was pushed up by RM450m of maintenance service revenue not earlier recognised due to recoverability concerns.

Nonetheless, excluding this, core revenue still grew a healthy 16% y-o-y, boosted by 84.3% load factor (+5.6ppts y-o-y)which drove RPKs up 12.4%. Yields (fare/RPK) improved (+1% y-o-y, +9% q-o-q) despite the phasing out of fuel
surcharges.

Based on HLG Report on 29th Feb,
Excluding RM450m maintenance charge to associates, FY15 revenue improved 8.3% yoy to RM5.9bn on stronger pax traffics (RPK: +11.0% yoy).

How you 90% sure that Q1 2016 better than Q4 2015?

Cause cheaper average Jet fuel price ??(This item might saved them ard 100mil jet fuel price)

However, wonder if you ever noticed that there is a huge sum of one-off income for aircraft maintenance which was not booked in for the earlier quater. (I think was 130-180mil, forgotten the exact number).

Hence, this 2 will cancel off. There was also lower % of advanced booking shown by Airasia in this quarter (if you do read their presentation slide).

In overall, I will say the result will be more or less than last quarter (50-50 chances), instead of using 90% SURE better result.


* I also did accumulate the share since their last bright QR, but I'm still being rationale instead of making too much unsupported hope.

The share listing on SGX will be SGD 20mil, which will be RM 59.6mil. With the current market cap of RM 6,671mil. The substantial shareholder will need to sell only 1% of the share.

What does the relationship between election need money & Topglove share price will drop? Can don't be so sohai or not? Moreover, Topglove is not even a Government Linked company.

You say like that is like Sarawak election gonna drag whole KLSE by -10%, cause all money need to pump into Sarawak.

got info then share share la.

@ YawLam, 1st, Airasia has hedged 50% of their fuel at USD 59 for year 2016. Therefore, it is actually half leg reached USD59.
2nd, jet fuel price is NOT the crude oil price you saw. Jet oil kerosene is now ard USD $48.

http://www.barchart.com/commodityfutures/Singapore_Jet_Kerosene_Swap_Futures_(Platts)_Futures/JKS

Higher oil price = stronger MYR.
Stronger MYR = less profit for Topglove.

It usually means that the company has hedged their USD in lower rate (say 4.2, but the rate went to 4.4).

In other words, the company has put a stone on their own leg. Meaning too strong USD is actually not good due to their bad hedging decision. If 4.2 is their hedged position, they will have forex gain when the rate stays below 4.2.

Whether strong/weak USD is a good/bad to the company, you need to know the their hedged price and the amount they hedged (% of hedged value agaisnt their sales).

Quite alot of export companies hedged at wrong position causing forex loss. Example Harta (Hedged 3,80-4.0), Mpi, etc.

Good explanation by @yktay1 & @GGmalaysia.
But, will they able continue to sustain as the environment is VERY CHALLENGING.

I dun think this stock's share price is able to move up liao, just hope it can be a good dividend counter. =.=

Nonetheless, i still hope the share price will up..

Btw， based on latest WD's quarter report.

Volume of HDD units (49.7mil) is dropping compared to previous quarter(51.7mil). Though still slightly better than 2 quarters ago which is (48.5mil). Therefore, JCY's coming quarter result might not be as good as previous quarter. I think JCY are also being pressed by WD to reduce price which might erode JCY's margin. But, hope that JCY's cost reduction exercise & investment in automation helps sustaining the margin.

Nonetheless, WD's CEO is expecting weaker & weaker number of HDD units in the coming quarter. Therefore, trade/invest with cautious.

Note: 90% of JCY sales come from WD. Seagate only contributes 10%.

** I own JCY share at the moment**

Holymama.... Tiamzz. drop 10% in a day.

http://www.investalks.com/forum/forum.php?mod=redirect&goto=findpost&ptid=3469&pid=3780028&fromuid=17850

Come to read my analysis on JCY ~~

Slowly climbing up... ^_^

Btw, this stock really not covered by analysts.... their info so little, worse than theEdge newspaper.. @_@

Come read my 7 page analysis on MPI (mainly chinese)

http://www.investalks.com/forum/forum.php?mod=redirect&goto=findpost&ptid=10637&pid=3749556&fromuid=17850