This is it, the rally is about to start again.

the price is firming up again, another rally is primed to commence

correction is about to end soon.

of course it is one of those few companies that have value in today's shit economy

I also want to write analyst articles now

These IBs are all purposefully trying to push the price down....what stupid motive they have. IGNORE THEM guys, BUY MORE. show to them. we will determine the price not them

IBs are all trying to push the price down very obvious

of course, profit making company in the middle is a recession. How many companies out there can say they make profits now? by the millions

Read carefully...RUMOUR. smart people will know this is fake news. Purposefully want to target glove stocks. can you all see? These banks want to make money

Do you think Lim Wee Chai and family will spend 33 mil almost to buy top glove shares if he knows that the windfall tax is a risk? I think he would be the first to know compared to these bankers who just plucked some one-off precedent in 1998. Crazy. When it happens then only talk la siao kia. And only Maybank IB saying that I wonder why.... what is their motive

Read carefully...RUMOUR. smart people will know this is fake news. Purposefully want to target glove stocks. can you all see? These banks want to make money

Do you think Lim Wee Chai and family will spend 33 mil almost to buy top glove shares if he knows that the windfall tax is a risk? I think he would be the first to know compared to these bankers who just plucked some one-off precedent in 1998. Crazy. When it happens then only talk la siao kia. And only Maybank IB saying that I wonder why.... what is their motive

this windfall tax is another kind of stupid senseless rumours - firstly if the government imposes it, then all the glove companies will relocate their incorporation overseas bearing in mind their business is international, their production is international and considering all the labour workers problems here, labour is not exactly the cheapest here. HAVE TO USE BRAIN TO THINK!

What I can see is there is a concerted attempt to push the glove price down...these bankers all cannot be trusted. Ignore them. They are trying to push the price down. Firstly, there is a contra ban. Secondly, then there is another windfall tax. Siao people.

IGNORE THEM they are envious of the gloves story. siao people

this windfall tax is another kind of stupid senseless rumours - firstly if the government imposes it, then all the glove companies will relocate their incorporation overseas bearing in mind their business is international, their production is international and considering all the labour workers problems here, labour is not exactly the cheapest here. HAVE TO USE BRAIN TO THINK!

What I can see is there is a concerted attempt to push the glove price down...these bankers all cannot be trusted. Ignore them. They are trying to push the price down. Firstly, there is a contra ban. Secondly, then there is another windfall tax. Siao people.

IGNORE THEM they are envious of the gloves story. siao people

don;t worry stay cool, price is holding up

very clear IBs are earning monies here, the next glove rally will be very spectacular considering how bad the correction is now. the more it drops the more it will rise up

very clear IBs are earning monies here, the next glove rally will be very spectacular considering how bad the correction is now. the more it drops the more it will rise up

never count your chickens until they hatch. Glove profits are confirmed. pharma profits ??? [xx] and if we follow Duopharma's latest QR results last week it is a decreasing revenue. so you know if you want to talk fundamentals as of now, glove is the strongest. No question. what happens beyond next year talk later la. No point saying it is not worth it and all that now. talk later. re-rate later. Right now, the valuation is correct. it deserves the all time high valuation.

valuelurker@ yes it seems so, but unlikely to be released by end of this year. no point talking about it until phase 3 trials are successful and don't forget after that have to get FDA registration and WHO approval. By then it will be next year. That is IF THE VACCINE PASSES PHASE 3 AND ENROLMENT FOR PHASE 3 COMPLETES BY SEPTEMBER. Any delay and it will be delayed until further next year.

It is over for the vaccine this year...forget it they are not going to be released. a lot of hype but nothing to show.

Earliest next year don't forget have to get registration + WHO approval - that itself will take time then have to mass produce some more and ship

this is the end of the vaccine for this year -mutation and MODERNA confirming not possible by Nov.

https://edition.cnn.com/2020/08/10/health/covid-vaccine-election-moderna-clinical-trials/index.html

Guys mutation on the virus again detetced, vaccine habis la no more hope for them this year. Scientists got to work harder haha... told you already ma where got so easy. Global pandemic ...

https://www.theedgemarkets.com/article/health-dg-covid19-virus-d614g-mutation-detected-malaysia

SinGor@ ya ohh so easy ah. why don't you go and open la. You will make more than the stock market. Of course la ordianry workers will be banglas and nepalese. but you think they can work on their own? they need MANAGEMENT with EXPERIENCE! and they need tons of it. in a short space of time, how to get? CAN LA you pay ah ... so profit less la. TOPglove win la. simple... logic and brains = foresight. not the stupidity. look at pharma, look at their profits e.g. Duopharma. have not even show any profit ,premature pancutan this is where it is not a sustainable thing which is why it is always only a 50 cents range stock. you see...gloves is the real thing. as you can see...even after massive sell down it is still so expensive. shows the real value and from now on, it can only get better

SinGor@ i think your assessment is flawed. Making gloves is not making nasi lemak. It takes time and money to build the infrastructure and technology and then to get skilled people to run the factories to make an impact on production- you take at least fastest 2-3 years to do that and that is not enough to even rival carepls kind of production, let alone Top Glove. By then, the vaccine should be out. But if the vaccine is out, it basically means the world needs more gloves, NOT LESS GLOVES. the reasoning must be logical here. Scientists doctors everyone needs 2 things - Sanitizers and gloves. Which means either way TOPGLOV will still make more money for the next 2-3 years.

KLSE12345@ now I know you are the one of those boys going around spreading fake news so you can buy cheap. haha...

short term 1.20-1.30 mid-term, 1.40-1.50 depending on market sentiments, long term fair value - 2.00. I will not let it go until it hits 2.0 after all the stress I went through.

Q2 out. Results is good. haha

I do not hold any glove stocks at the moment as they are too volatile for now. My personal take on it is there is still some upside to it as its profits are still going to come in for the next few quarters. Not many companies can claim that now. Similarly with samchem, it is a fundamentally solid company growing profits. But I guess the difference with glove is the PE ratio they are now trading is too high for now, thereby making it a ponzi stock. The current price level is a valuation for the next 10 years - unfortunately, we all know glove cannot make that kind of profits on a sustained basis for the next 10 years. With Samchem, it is the opposite because its PE ratio is too low. Its value is not realised yet, for glove it is fully realised. Hence, the upside is massively there for the taking - that is why I feel it is a safe haven. a gem waiting to be unlocked.

we standby the TP: 1.30-1.40 in the short term (2 months plus), 2.0 in the long term (1 year or more)

bubufu@ smart move. It has always been what I advocated.

no worries, I believe this is only temporary

We need to understand why, market news is not that great at the moment. Nothing to do with the fundamentals of the company. We have to weather this out, no choice. Sell now and you realise a loss. If you keep the patience, you will get the profits with reward later.

no worries guys, like I said, the company has never done stunts unlike other companies. It has always been consistent nothing to worry.

so many companies release their Q2 all bad - but not Samchem - so you will see the massive lift soon.

just checked the news, our GDP results just got released that is why the slight fall in price today. our economy contracted by 17.1%

The Malaysian economy contracted by 17.1% in the second quarter of 2020 (1Q20: 0.7%), reflecting the unprecedented impact of the stringent containment measures to control the Covid-19 pandemic globally and domestically.

https://www.theedgemarkets.com/article/klci-tracks-regional-markets-fall-082-gdp-contraction-dampens-local-sentiment-glovemakers

NOT TO WORRY, samchem's Q2 results will be good and that will lift the price up because of the contrast with the wider economy. Samchem is expected to do very well in the covid crisis. The longer the crisis the better for samchem

My analysis on the the stock price, samchem should rise soon. Possible QR results released by end of today. Probably some insiders buying in cheap... not sure but sounds and looks very fishy. Something is coming up. And usually before a tsunami, there is always some harmless event happening.

thanks Luke@ and Live2Win@ for sharing your views and factual information. I discovered samchem through the reading of the RHB analyst and sifu peng lam. Studied the stock for a few days before I entered. I agree with you that all the analyst and sifu pointed out that the PE ratio is very low and so this stock is very much undervalued considering its profits. My target price is still 2.0 unchanged.

Luke@ it seems you are firm believer as well. I notice you on this forum when samchem was previously trading at 90 something cents range weeks ago. You have a high target price ya? Even at 1.20/1.48 you did not sell. Just like me, I did not think of selling when it hit 1.48 because my personal target price is at least 1.70 -2.00 range.

Technical call:

BUY if you have money spare cash;

HOLD if no money to spare but no urgent need to use money;

SELL if you desperately need to use cash or if you can spot a stock that can surely give you a 60% gain in a few days. I think it is unlikely in today's market environment because if there is, samchem would have shot up.

Live2win@ I don't think it will drop to 80 something cents range because the last time it drops to 70 something cents range, immediately the buying happens like a shark and hit the thing back up to 90 something cents again. As Luke it is a tightly held stock, just a little bit high volume of buying will push the price up by a lot. Which is why on a technical call, I say HOLD and collect because all it takes is one wave of buying this will pancut to 1.20 back again at least.

I think your second analysis is more correct. Retail got burnt on last few days and now adopt a wait and see approach. They have interest still if the price is right. and for samchem 90 something cents proved to the ceiling low and ideal market entry price - why? Because it has stabilisied at this range so we know this is the ceiling low limit for Samchem. Which is not bad la...one or two more wave all the holders will be rewarded. So, HOLD and wait for the profit to come in. When? I don't know but I know it will happen soon...

I agree with Luke's assessment, someone is pushing it down to accumulate. It will bounce back soon. if you have spare cash, can buy when it drops.

unless you need the money, no point selling unless you have a stock that can give you back that value. Now market is consolidating. Q2 any time soon. not sure but coming out and very likely to be good. So there is still catalyst for upward trend. As Luke mentioned, this stock is very closely held so when it goes up, it easily limits up.

I would say a fair value is around 1.20-1.30 range in the short term which translates to around 27-28% yield. To reach that is not too far, just one limit up. but if you cut at this stage, you realise a loss immediately. In this kind of market, where are you going to put your money to get an almost certain 27-28% yield? FD is not going to give you that. Remember that the highest this stock reached was 1.48. Since Q2 is coming out, I would suggest hold, if not buying more.

patience... no point cutting at this stage. There is more upside than downside.

By the way, a multi-bagger stock means an equity stock which gives a return of more than 100%. The term was coined by Peter Lynch in his 1988 book, One Up on Wall Street and comes from baseball where "bags" or "bases" that a runner reaches are the measure of the success of a play.

Source: SAMCHEM last annual report

For the benefit of members who wish to invest long term in this stock for capital appreciation and increasing dividends, Samchem's Return of Capital employed (ROCE) which measures the ‘return’ (pre-tax profit) a company generates from capital employed in its business is:

Return on Capital Employed = Earnings Before Interest and Tax (EBITDA) ÷ (Total Assets – Current Liabilities)

0.25 = RM46m ÷ (RM510m – RM322m) (Based on the trailing 12 months to March 2020).

So, Samchem Holdings Berhad has an ROCE of 25%. In absolute terms that’s a great return and it’s even better than the Trade Distributors industry average of 8.8%. Investors would be pleased with Samchem because the numbers show that in the last 5 years way before COVID, the returns generated on capital employed have grown considerably to 25%. Basically Samchem's business is earning more per dollar of capital invested and in addition to that, 51% more capital is being employed now too. The increasing returns on a growing amount of capital is common amongst multi-baggers and that is why this stock has an upward trend advantage towards its fair value of at least 2.0.

Key advantages:

1. Trading at 92.1% below analyst estimate of its fair value based on its rivals PE ratio. Luxchem and CCM are trading at far higher PE ratios when their earnings growth is not as much and their business model is more exposed and less diversified as Samchem.

2. Earnings are forecast to grow 12.02% per year as growth already started since the last 4 quarters way before COVID started.

3. Earnings grew by 23% over the past year and is forecasted to grow even more due to the supply to the healthcare industry (with or without vaccine). Samchem also employs a diversified business model which has a range of industrial chemicals distributions such as lubricants. Its current Vietnamese business unit is spinning off for listing in the Ho Chi Minh Stock Exchange.

Another point I want to mention is unlike other companies like Luxchem where the directors are selling which demonstrates the lack of faith in their company, Samchem is so tightly held by the owner and directors. This shows the real true value of this gem.

yes agreed, sellers are getting lesser, more strong holders now... I am sure it will go back up to its fair value soon once QR results out. Smart move on the company to only announce the good news when market has finish consolidating.

luke what is a pdts? haha been very intrigued by this abbreviation ...

I can see the resilience in the stock. Consolidation paving the way for an upward trend very soon. Covid is still on guys don't be fooled by the Russians and vaccine freakos... latest news Australia records the worst deaths today. Covid will stay on until end of the year as no vaccine will be effective until year end the fastest. Let's not kid anyone here, if a vaccine is so easy to be found, then there are no more diseases in this world.