Lel USD $ 37.5 million kacang putih la tell them dont use the cash on their balance sheet, go use borrow coz screw banks hehe

Cb now 'may grant some waivers' on sanctions ka that US official what level...good somebody go and tweet to donald duck trump...the moment the monkey hears of it you see la he will double down and then sanction not just the companies but the entire country gogogogo tweet to him (similar to when US$ 200bil tariffs on China were to be imposed and there were last-min talks of 'negotiations' to avoid it.....)

Brent is made of heavier crude (as Middle East crude's are, including Iran which will make the supply-demand become even more imbalanced hehe...) compared to WTI which yields gasoline (used in cars, and we all know where cars are headed - electric vehicles...)

Hence why you see the spread (difference) between Brent and WTI is at near historical highs (it used to be USD $3-4 only, its over USD $ 10 now)

And as the Sept 21 2018 news stated the premium for Kimanis over Dated Brent has increased (when Brent itself has risen tremendously). When I was in school, I learned 'sudah jatuh ditimpa tangga' well I guess this is 'sudah bangkit diangkat superman!' trolololo

In the end, always understand that prices are determined by the forces of demand and supply, and if the world wants middle distillate rich crude with ultra-low sulfur, then you have to pay for it

1. The crude from Hibiscus (North Sabah, and in general all Malaysian grades) is middle distillate rich

"The premiums for the middle distillate rich sweet Asian grades of Malaysian Tapis and Kikeh soared to their highest level..."

https://www.platts.com.es/latest-news/oil/singapore/asian-sweet-premiums-soar-on-libyastrong-w-african-8605050


What are middle distillates?

" Middle distillates refers to a range of refined products situated between lighter fractions, such as LPG or gasoline, and heavier products such as fuel oil. Typically they include jet fuel, heating kerosene, and gas and diesel oils, such as marine bunker fuels. Diesel is mainly used for transportation. Heating kerosene is processed for commercial and domestic heating, whereas jet fuel is used to power the engines of commercial and military aircraft. "

https://www.vitol.com/what-we-do/trading/middle-distillates/


And lo and behold...

" Malaysian crude Kimanis trades at highest premium this year

September 21, 2018 18:00 pm +08

SINGAPORE (Sept 21): Malaysian crude oil cargoes for November loading are trading at their highest levels this year as demand for diesel ahead of the peak winter demand season has boosted refining margins, said three industry sources on Friday.

At least two cargoes of Kimanis crude oil traded above US$5 a barrel above the dated Brent benchmark, two of the sources said. Kimanis is a low-sulphur medium crude grade that yields a large amount of middle distillates, a group of oil products including diesel and jet fuel, after processing.

This is higher than the premiums of more than US$4 a barrel that the crude oil grade traded at last month, one of them said. "

http://www.theedgemarkets.com/article/malaysian-crude-kimanis-trades-highest-premium-year-%E2%80%94-sources


Demand for middle distillates comes from...

1. Transportation (trucks, rail, airlines (jet fuel) and shipping) and Europe "dieselization" have increased and then...

2. IMO 2020 (uses marine bunker fuel i.e. middle distillates! and low-sulfur (below 0.5%) i.e. sweet crude, which is exactly what Malaysian grades are!) and then...

3. Saudi Aramco IPO 'by early 2021'

https://www.cnbc.com/2018/10/05/saudi-crown-prince-says-aramco-ipo-will-happen-by-early-2021.html

If you're going to IPO you'll want to get maximum value and for that to happen, you'll need crude at a high price...there are reports that say Saudi is reluctant to add on supply and wants to keep the market in 'balance')


So from NOW till Iran sanction in Nov 2018 (short term) and until 2021 (mid / long-term), crude prices can only go one way.....


FORTH AND FEAR NO DARKNESS

All negative news are out - Saudi and Russia 'says' they'll increase production. India says it will continue to buy Iran crude (only 9 mil barrels in Nov, whereas Iran production is 4mil BPD, and India's consumption is 4mil BPD) but at the same time all their refiners have stopped buying Iran crude (Reliance etc) because who the hell is going to risk getting sanctioned and locked out of the US financial system lol - https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/industry/energy/oil-gas/india-to-continue-iranian-oil-imports-post-us-sanctions/articleshow/66088584.cms

Path of least resistance is...UP!

neighbour refers to Goldman Sachs

JPM and the foreign funds covered their shorts already, and are now long, but malu ma 180 degree u-turn so ask their neighbour across wall street to issue buy...and Monday flyyyyy

Before the EIA inventory announcement, Brent was US$ 84.5x. Today its US$ 84.9x which is still higher than before. So that is not the cause. Its the goddamn US Treasury yields that are spooking investors but we know.....rising UST yields = rising crude oil prices!

What we do in life, echoes in eternity!

10-year US Treasury yields and Brent price:

https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/How-Does-Oil-Impact-Bond-Markets.html

*Look at the chart, especially the 2nd !

10-year US Treasury's Yields (i.e. inflation expectations) and Brent crude price are correlated:

https://www.cnbc.com/2018/04/20/theres-an-interesting-phenomenon-happening-with-crude-and-bonds.html

"We have this interesting phenomenon where crude oil is highly correlated to the direction of inflation expectations," [Charles] Bilello [director of research at Pension Partners] told CNBC's "Trading Nation" on Thursday.

*Dont take my word for it, look at the charts and see with your own eyes

For those more fundamentally inclined, there is a logic to it (read up and try to understand)

USD$100 here we comeeee

FORTH, AND FEAR NO DARKNESS!

USD $ 85 defenddddd

US strong growth = inflation = rising commodity prices energy demand is inelastic, the drop in 2014/15 was caused by shale (US crude went from 4mil bpd to over 10mil today), with OPEC keeping crude oil in balance, crude will be USD80-100 and so we shall have the glory days of oil and gas back PE Ratio 20!

Tomorrow drop again ka

Worldwide markets all red...hibiscus is a safe haven crude oil is better than gold at least on a cold night can use it as fuel!!!

Click the BUYYY button

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-diplomacy-treaty/u-s-withdraws-from-international-accords-says-u-n-world-court-politicized-idUSKCN1MD2CP

Conlan7firm the sanctions will go ahead even if its at the expense of american citizens because 'how dare you challenge me' in trump we trust to bring us to the promiseddd land

SAPRNG and MYEG shorts have reduced substantially, hibiscus still 1 in 5 sapu la send the bears back to their caves

So consensus is HSI @ 26000? Trade-war rhetoric has been played out in the open for so damn long, now only JPMorgan cut lol, once shorts covered and long-ed, next week change to overweight lololol

Wanna be a bear then faster short nobody makes money sideways

If inventory build cannot stop crude prices, nothing can touch it

Hantam all the way and tell the shorties that they may take our lives, but they'll never take, our freedommm!

Traders and markets are looking forward I think - 2 million bpd from Iran going offline, additional 8 million barrels of US crude inventories over the week (due to surging shale production) isn't enough to hold it back...

66mil volume, 12mil is IDSS almost 1 in 5 shares are shorts lel

Lets be honest, how many of you all got shaken out

Assuming OPEX and other costs remain the same, every US$1 adds USD$1 * 3mil barrels * 4 to PBT

Brent went up c. USD$7 so thats RM84 mil or about 30% from FY2017 PBT c. 250mil

Brent goes to USD$100, that would be about USD$23, or roughly 3 * 84mil ~ 250mil, which means that PBT will be double

Before the surge, price was RM1, PBT double share price double so RM2 ngam ka, and assuming P/E remains constant

In the crude oil days of 2010-2014, you cant find O&G stock below PE 20

Try not to curi curi contra, Iran sanctions is in Nov. In between you have crude inventory reports (EIA will report today, API already reported - increase in inventory but look at Brent so steady), therefore there will be fluctuations in share price in the short-term. Buta buta let the sharks press down and force you to sell

11mil volume, 7mil is IDSS good i likeee

Wanna throw faster throw

Relax hang seng got bombed by shorties, all markets went red (except as usual KLCI la which went up lol) so all the shares that shot up in the past few days/week, some money was taken off the table. Just focus on crude prices - Iran sanctioned, 2 million barrels go offline, Saudi has how much excess..? Iraq is adding 60k lol

Wa H4I 25mil volume, 56c, up 55% in one day, so two days double up damn Hong Kies really like to gamble

USD$100 per barrel, you're looking at RM500-600mil PBT - assign your own PE and you'll see the upside all these blocks are by those progs that run on some 'technical parameters/strategy' overbought etc on a normal highly liquid counter boleh pakai a bit la, on a company where the underlying (crude) is undergoing a tectonic shift, all will be dust against the storm that is coming

TLDR sapuuuuuuuu

Shorties just shorted 600k units earlier lel just squeezeee them with crude going up and Hibiscus being the purest upstream oil & gas player, profits will go direct to the bottom line

https://www.thestar.com.my/business/business-news/2018/10/02/sp-revises-2019-brent-forecast-to-us70-per-barrel/

Dont worry about this...these are the same ratings agencies that gave US banks and their subprime mortgages / loans triple A ratings am I right, look where that ended up lel

1.35 kakacaucau just keep buying squeeze the shortiesss

I thought the Saudis will 'surrender' and declare US$80 as faor, now it seems theyve conceded at USD100 'helpless' to stop the advance justasplannedsaystrump trololol

Just keep loading and loading and loading...forth and fear no darkness

You everyday harp on the same thing people will say you're a nag old man kcchong

You believe DK66 and say he's knowledgeable, so believing those facts, and inputting those numbers into your spreadsheet, that should give you the NPV - 'IRR 12% is to Project, therefore Equity is 30%++'

Instead you revert back to your 'common sense' and disregard the model, the theory, the maths, the thought process...

Youre like the scientist who has a hypothesis, runs the experiment, and the results do not conform to his hypothesis, then proceeds to disregard the test results and sticks to his hypothesis because thats what his 'gut' tells him - yeah way to go scientific advancement lol. Next time when you cannot prove or disprove something, dont go and tell the world you agree/disagree with someone - youre just like another one of those who are going to mislead people

Old man koon has access to management, he's substantial shareholder - at the start he was touting the massive 'construction profits', wanting to con the masses with the 'massive construction profits' and then it first proposed that the profits are not real, he now pivots to 'the 30% share in he IPP is free' - in that whole time, he has never mentioned anything about the yearly cashflows over the period of the 25 years of the IPP - oh he knows, and he knows its nothing to shout about - IRR 12% equals payback in 8 years, only desperate to change their fortunes JAKS would accept such lousy returns for an overseas venture.

But just like your 'too good to be true' common sense, all of this is still just conjecture and guesses

None of it is irrefutable, absolute truth

Dnex owns how many % of Anasuria only...Hibiscus owns 50% how can lose to themmm

How can lose to reach siennn laaaa

12mil units to 1.35 squeeze the shortiesss gogogo

3-3.5 mil barrels for 2019, at USD 100 per barrel minus current USD75 Hibiscus is sitting on USD25 per barrel * 4.1 (with USD/MYR exchange rates continuing to rise..) of extra profits, where to find hantam RM2 coming whats a few cents penny wise pound foolish squeeze the shorties

13 mil to 1.35 hantam RM2 here we come

TLDR, with the added production from P2-ST and higher crude oil price, whatever increase in tax would be more than offset by the increase from the two factors

CHARGEEEE

Oil royalty is currently 10% of GROSS PRODUCTION VALUE (5% to Federal, 5% to State)

It has been proposed to change that to 20% of NET PROFIT, which is still subject to amendments to the Petroleum Development Act

And this would apply only to North Sabah, which admittedly is the largest contributor

PH manifesto is no toll, cancel large infrastructure projects, not oil n gas 20% royalty to Sabah and Sarawak, in front say we want to be fair to all, behind tell Petronas defend their rights as stated under the Petroleum Development Act la, you all better sell Monday la don't block

There will always be a place for 'technicals/traders' I guess. Just don't use fundamentals to justify your calls because as I've said long ago, sapura will sink under it's debts long before it caneven crawl out of it - the RI is proof; it is essentially a PNB bailout (as is usual for them - MAS)

The floodgates have opened

On the 1st day of October
On the first day of a new month
On Monday

Spears shall be shaken,
Shields shall be splintered,
A sword day,
A red day,
Ere the sun rises!!!

He's trying to tell you CAB (whose share price went up today) has a farm in Indonesia which will be affected and the chickens will drown and no eggs produced and LH (whose share price went down today) will swoop in to save the day so Monday CAB down, LH up liddat also dunno ka

The 32DD woman is bending over as we speak (and Iran sanctions are still a month away.....)

US$ 82 gone...Sep break 80, Oct break 90, Nov break 100

Hold at around that level like 2010-2014 and multiples expansion will occur (barring major economic meltdown, slowdown is ok)

Wait for the warrants to expire

Relax now crude is like a 32DD woman wearing low cut tank top walking on the streets, everybody trying to catch a glimpse but trying not to get caught.....until she bends down then holy shiet the dam breaks all hell breaks loose and there is a mega rush for Brent and it breaks US$ 100 boom boom powww