Smash 1.9 la

Crude is down this fella up geng

Nah rm1 angpau give you all faster sell la

Hantam

Let CD expire

If you dont even know how to calculate that, you really shouldnt be buying structured warrants only a select few get to go against the 'house' and win

Go here - http://klse.i3investor.com/servlets/stk/stwarrant/4324.jsp

Your cheque will be for ((Closing Price - Exercise Price) / Ratio) * No. of warrants, some will have 'fees' depending on the issuer

Now go and pump Shell petrol trololo

Duke2A awarded ka

Old man koon and all of you guys' 'play' for Jaks is this la - wait to recognise the accounting 'profits' from their self-awarded construction of the power plant, promote on every channel, take media and analysts to the plant, build volume, then dump la

IRR of 12% in vietnam lol your hurdle rate so low one ka, in freakin vietnam where you have exchange rate risk, completion risk, default/payment risk etc the MD himself said it, not me

https://www.thestar.com.my/business/business-news/2016/03/29/jaks-eyes-irr-of-12-for-rm7bil-vietnam-plant/

Your FCFE, which is cashflows available to equity holders aka YOU is after repayment of borrowings la ask what accountant lol u ask the accountants la they will tell you they are second tier students, the first tier dont take accounting because it does not reflect real world valuations

You self-award the construction project to yourself but you recognise it as profit in P&L? lolwut

Damn you guys are entertaining i'll wager even people who are on the sidelines would just buy a few just to have the opportunity to join in the excitement trololo

Next week is show time

Smash 13.2 la

Look at crack spreads - http://www.cmegroup.com/apps/cmegroup/widgets/productLibs/esignal-charts.html?code=D1N&title=FEB_2018_Singapore_Mogas_92_Unleaded_%28Platts%29_Brent_Crack_Spread_&type=p&venue=0&monthYear=G8&year=2018&exchangeCode=XNYM&chartMode=dynamic

The correction is not an economic crash , so fundamentally your demand for gasoline is still going to be there, and now even better crude oil which has been artificially propped up by clueless OPEC is under pressure, so your 'spread' will always be there and continues to be robust

Three more weeks and results will be out, four quarters of performance one full year of track record and then valuation is going to look ridiculous, the world can crash and burn and you'll still be fine

Dow can cry all it wants la KLCI how to collapse going into GE lel

HY has passed the Dow test with flying colours

All obstacles have been removed

Tomorrow whoever tries to once again manipulate the stock, just buy with everything youve got and smash all barriers to kingdom come

Old man koon sold all already ka kakacaucau

The Dow is up you guys' favourite topic the way the index itself is computed is a joke only the dumb americans could have come up with it lmao

Man you guys are weaklings...ignore the noise buy and hold midterm triple digit gains easy peasy unless opposition wins election and allday errday free petrol lel

You guys have the IQ-equivalent of a donkey is it

Dow dropped 1175 points or 4.6% yesterday and that affected all of 8c to this stock lol

ya chu chu i also hope pigs can fly and dow jones drop 2k and hope can buy tmr at 6.48 hehe

Dow can crumble, overpriced KLCI can drop, but value will always come through

You guys are a resilient bunch tunggu apa lagi hantammmm

2.5% mana ada crash singaporean...bitcoin now that is CRASH lmao the question is got balls to buy or not ;)

Once upon a time, in a land far, far away...


1. On 28 October 2016, 3Q16 profits were RM 123,042 million (the latest Quarter results preceding 3 Jan 2017)

On 21 November 2017, 3Q17 profits were RM 154,383 million

A rise of approximately 25% year-on-year


2. The underlying commodity was about USD 1500 per metric tonne in January 2017, and as of today it is currently USD 2200 per metric tonne

A rise of approximately 50%


3. At 3 Jan 2017, the share opened at RM1.60

Today it closed at RM5.73

For a world-beating rise of 260% in a little over a year (the company warrant had returns that were much, much higher of course)


The commodity is aluminium. And the company is Press Metal


4. From the 3Q16 to 3Q17, profits only rose by 25%, and from 3 Jan 2017 to 5 Jan 2018, aluminium prices rose approximately 50%

Yes it has increased, but how do you account for the 260% increase in the share price?

Exactly my dear Watson, because you had MULTIPLES EXPANSION with the P/E ratio going from SINGLE digit to one that is close to 30 today

And that is all due to foreign funds and institutional funds coming in

But what brought them in at the start of 2017?

The 'signal' was provided for by Aluminium prices. From the middle of 2015 to 2016, aluminium prices were stagnant. But like all commodities, there are 'cycles' (and occasionally 'supercycles'), and the 'uptrend' in aluminium prices was thus confirmed as we entered 2017

See here - http://www.infomine.com/investment/metal-prices/aluminum/5-year/

But the signal required 'confirmation'. That the rise was actually trickling down to the bottomline. And that was provided for by 1Q17 results. And the rest as they say is history

(Note that from 1Q17 to 3Q17, Press Metals profits were pretty much flattish, and yet the share price and PE kept on expanding...)


So how does this relate to HY?

The 'signal' was provided by crack spreads, they have reversed and the early Jan 18 was just a blip, and are actually increasing DESPITE news of China flooding the market, DESPITE crude oil prices rising rapidly. It confirms that even with crude at USD 70, crack spreads can be maintained and are robust

But the signals require confirmation you say

Well, the upcoming results will confirm, 4Q17 and also 1Q18. But remember I said it doesn't matter what 4Q17 is, it could even be crap, because stock markets are always, always forward looking?

And so, just take a look at Press Metals 3Q16 results, it was actually lower vs 2Q16, and yet share price still rose as we entered 2017


As it was for Press Metal, so shall it be for HY

Down few % all jumping already borrow from ahlong and sialang on warrants that are over 50% out of the money is it lol

Focus on crack spreads which are at recent record levels

The divergence between share price and crack spreads is just manipulation with the trigger 4Q17 results which are out in three weeks the case will be settled once and for all

You see the push up and subsequent drop in this stock is entirely the result of pure manipulation, NOT natural market forces of demand and supply (it was purposely pressed down so as to trigger the margin calls, if you looked at the way it was done, you would know)

So what do you do in the face of such manipulation, you ignore the noise, you ignore the short-term volatility, you stay on course and you stick with the one true fundamental driver of refinery earnings, your crack spreads

And refinery's have shown that crack spreads are incredibly resilient, even with crude oil prices at a high of USD 70+ per barrel, and even with China flooding the market. The drop in the spreads at the start of Jan 18 was a blip and it is now all the way clear blue skies

And all along this time, the institutional funds local and foreign (let's call them 'whales') have stayed on the sidelines because you see, for them to move in, they need stability, they need visibility in earnings, and when they saw the rapid rise of crude starting from July 17, well they have been waiting to see if crack spreads can be maintained even with the rise in crude. Well, the answer is clear (check out CME oohlala)

The reversal in the crack spreads is the sign to move in. It is the mother of all signals

And when the whales move in, you will finally have MULTIPLES EXPANSION and PE going from 4 > 6 > 8 the sky's the limit as only the whales can do (its the same with any stock that goes from single digit to double digits, Bursa is littered with such examples), not to mention they will provide the checks and balances (i.e. when somebody shorts, they will come in to mop it up and kill the shorty) and there will be no more manipulation of the degree youve just seen the last couple of weeks. Because with the high crack spreads, the whales cannot ignore this any longer, the divergence between market capitalisation and profits will be too large, they're going to look incredibly stupid for missing out. Because they too are tired of recycling the same old themes. And because they are huge

And so there you have it, the cinderella story for HY

Remember, ignore the short-term volatility, rise above the noise, and as you look down upon it, everything will become clear. Enjoy the ride

What a bunch of idiots 2.5% all panic call for crash lol

Look at the US stock market after the idiots voted Trump into office, how many % rise, the few % drop is peanuts la

You must know the pullback is caused by what to find out if its going to be prolonged, or just a blip

And you will see that the drop is due to impending rise of interest rates, when interest rates rise, of course some money will flow out of equities to 'chase' the higher yields or else the portfolio managers are going to get fired la they are human beings also need to take care of their backside ma lolol

In fact, wage growth and inflation is a good sign for the economy because it means it is expanding. And with the rate rise already anticipated, what 'crash'? So easy to predict a crash ah Soros will be a trillionaire lo lolol. A crash by sheer definition will only happen from something that you cannot anticipate. If your portfolio cant take this small drop, that means your ability to pick stocks needs a lot of improvement. And if you cant bear to go through that small drop, go and keep money in properties or FD or other asset classes

You naysayers come here actually want to buy and finding reassurance right lmao you all better dont buy

1. Ive said it earlier, in times of uncertainty, those which are necessities to ensure survival of precious life, would rise in need

If there is trouble, what would you do? Go out and stock up on essentials right? Your minum milo anda jadi sihat dan kuat, coffee, maggi, rice, peanut butter and jelly, tuna and whatever else

So you see on Friday, what went up? Nestle, which is also a play on the strong RM (double catalyst/tailwinds)

And before the elections (or when the streets are 'uncertain') and when you go out to buy these things, what do you do, you drive your car and use petrol right, and before the elections (whenever its announced) youre going to want to have a full tank right, coz who knows you need to run far far

So on Friday you saw the Petrol Retailers shining through (Petdag, Petronm) and by extension, the pure refiners who will supply these refined products (Hengyuan)

Sounds so eloquent in its simplicity doesnt it, now that its put that way. And look, even CNBC agrees with me: -

https://www.cnbc.com/2018/02/02/pg-and-these-other-dow-stocks-go-down-the-least-in-a-sell-off.html


2. And now you look at the crack spreads, they are at all time high (again, MoGAS 92 only): -

http://www.cmegroup.com/apps/cmegroup/widgets/productLibs/esignal-charts.html?code=D1N&title=FEB_2018_Singapore_Mogas_92_Unleaded_%28Platts%29_Brent_Crack_Spread_&type=p&venue=0&monthYear=G8&year=2018&exchangeCode=XNYM&chartMode=dynamic

As long as crack spreads remain (its actually moving higher as you can see, because hey even the markets know, in uncertainty, people will pump more petrol!), HY is extremely undervalued

3. Good MD got fired and they were so kind to again give the market 1 month advance notice...in fact they should fire the entire team involved in the sale of Shell Refining Co (Malaysia) to Shandong Hengyuan just look at the terms of the sale, sell at 51% for USD 66mil 2016 and current market cap after only 1 year plus at RM4bil lmao bunch of overpaid foreigners probably got lumped into Hengyuan from Shell parent so the Chinese owners can bear their salaries

4. So while the KLCI component stock will be taking a breather / sideways; GLC's and crony's will have downside risks; and the mid-small caps will continue to suffer, Hengyuan has all the catalysts / tailwinds in its favour (necessity + theme play, crack spreads, undervalued).

And the market cannot ignore that

Youre pro or youre a noob, thats life

Who wants to exit, just place your entire blocks at higher and higher prices 13.8, 14.0 etc just block, the market will absorb but hey if you do want to sell into the dips and let the sharks buy from you cheap nobody can stop you

For the rest of you the market will gyrate and they will try and scare you, and if you wanna be like the old man koon who got outplayed and succumbed to his own medicine, its up to you, after all your responsibility is to you and yours first and foremost

But if youve been once bitten twice shy, then know that these are just blips, its all clear blue skies from here on out. The gap between market cap and intrinsic value is too large to ignore in whatever short, mid or long term you are safe in the knowledge that crack spreads are healthy because there's only so much OPEC can withhold before all hell breaks loose why do you think they're ipo-ing aramco and selling out its because they know their days are numbered and there's only so much production cuts they can try and do before they have to go back riding camels in the desert lolol

1.Now until 4Q17 results price will hold at the worst and actually rise steadily as buyers > supply
(GE announced or not dont matter, this is not a GE stock, in fact its product is a necessity, in times of uncertainty it should go up)

2. 4Q17 out - whatever the result dont matter because there will be a relief rally and the next day it will limit up (in fact the results can be shite and drop 50% QoQ, and it matters not...why? Look at the crack spreads now because markets are forward-looking and even with that drop it is still extremely undervalued and you must understand from its past performance and the refinery business as a whole - quarterly performance can be volatile, whats important is to normalise or average it out over the year)

The position has always been clear - at the start of the year Jan 18 there was a large drop in crack spreads and the sentiment was that it would continue to drop (news of China flooding the market did not help). But the past week have shown that the spreads are entirely resilient. And the trend has now reversed. No discussions on inventory gains, and all the while taking into account the statutory turnaround which is part and parcel of the refining business and which HY have very transparently announced in advance and whose 'cost' you should 'amortise/split/divide' over a number of years, the last statutory turnaround of which was done in 2015 or 3 years ago, no sidelining the tax 'issue' (making an investment decision based on tax advantages is the dumbest thing ive heard thats for loser manufacturing companies who always have to shift to the lowest cost countries coz they have a lousy business model e.g. semiconductor company's in Penang)

And for the rest of you who want to buy, dont be penny wise pound foolish HY's share is double-digit priced, that difference in a few cents and you want to berkira lol if you know the intrinsic value, then you ought to know it is a steal because after the 4Q17 is out, there will be lift-off

Whatever dips in the near-term, load up, and you shall teach the IB's the sharks and whatever that stands in the way, a lesson that shall never ever be forgot

And thats how you play with the best and still come out on top of the world. You dont need to promote and manipulate share prices or con retailers like old man koon (since the fool succumbed to the price drop / psychology / fear of loss, so he needs to find a greater fool(s) to offload to.

That is power no money in the world can buy

And that power is now in your hands

The thing with commodities is, prices are transparent i.e. quoted on public exchanges, so you can determine with accuracy its future performance (since HY follows Shell's disclosure standards in their Qtr reports as do most refineries), and on that basis, its share price should follow the single most important factor to its fundamentals, which is the difference between crude and gasoline aka crack spread

4Q17 is the past. Didnt they ever tell you to look forward in life, well none of it is more apt here. The Jan 18 dip in crack spread was but a blip, and confirmed now from the price-action. Spreads will hold, and even increase going forward. It is clear skies ahead. And so when the stars align, you do what the best do, you whack with everything youve got, and you send a message to the sharks and old man koon that together, you ikan bilis can achieve greatness

As you sow, so shall you reap

From now until the 4th Qtr is out (and during tong-tong-tong-chiang CNY), there are no more tailwinds for Hengyuan, and the day after its out with the widening crack spreads, its going to hit limit upppp

Some of you are going to worry about GE (and its announcement etc) well Hengyuan is a refiner, not your crony (those that have direct 'tongkat' e.g. golfing buddy) nor your GLC (like your utilities or banks etc) so the 'political' risk is minimal in fact it sells gasoline and if anything during uncertainty the masses will stock it up coz you never know you might need to drive to Singapore or Thailand to run from the potential turmoil....loll

The current spreads show that even with higher crude prices, refineries are able to 'pass through' the costs and maintain spreads, and with crude now top-pish, you would expect the current high spreads to remain or go even higher going into the seasonally strong period April-June

There is just no other stock that has the same risk-return payoff at this moment the odds are in your favour and if you know anything about winning big, you know that when the gods are smiling upon you and you see a big fat frog jumping around, you dont go and ask him, "Why me god, why me?" because its Christmas? what are you, stupid? loll instead you go all-in and leave nothing on the table

And when you buy the share, understand that you are fighting the good fight and that you will be standing on the shoulder of giants and the profits are but the icing on the cake, because you see the needs of the many outweigh the needs of the few

You base your buying or selling on the 'technicals' of the stock lolol look at the crack spread you are a refinery ignore your inventory gains (for 4Q17) or losses or whatever other noises including idiotic comments by old man koon who tells you about 'business sense' but then looks at EPS and talks about tax (which business doesnt pay tax lolol) and then succumbs to the price drop and sells into it lmao another fool who only knows the price of everything and the value of none lol

Be guided by the crack spreads and be safe in the knowledge that Mr Market is similarly guided and now with the 'headwinds' (of low spread) now cleared (going into Jan it was in a 'downtrend' and looked like it would be in a slump but then has now reversed), its now clear blue skies ahead boom boom pow come on guys 5% is not what you should live for, its 50% at the very minimum limit up yeehaa go big or go home

Markets and share prices are always, always forward looking

Now when the fuel supply agreement between the China buyers and Shell was done, they had to agree on pricing, and it will almost always be through a pricing mechanism i.e. 'pegged' to a regional/global benchmark that is publicly traded, and if you go through the Qtr reports, the word Platts appears...

Now the drop was due to the narrowing crack spread in early part of Jan. That 'downtrend' (the the 'technical analysts') has now clearly been reversed, go to CME and check out the MOGAS 92 vs Brent spread for yourself (benchmark is now Feb 2018 contracts and one should use MOGAS 95 since thats what is sold but I cant be arsed coz Im pro)

So hantam la 4Q17 is past, 1Q18 is going to be good through 2Q18 turnarounds are part and parcel of refineries and have been announced a long time ago and taxes? you wanna have LHDN come visit you ka trololol

Thats it?? Damn you guys are weaklings
Tell old man koon to park his entire few millions shares bus at 13 la don’t be shy no need to churn so the market knows how much short stock is left and take it down
For those idiot believers and ‘your money, your risk’ defenders wake up and smell the roses la just a few days ago he said he wasnt selling, don’t have to profit through crooked means bla bla, but was indeed selling lolol a large shareholder, one in which has taken a majority stake (eg Jaks) has no business whatsoever talking about his holdings with insider details let alone promoting it, that’s market manipulation la…and taking monies from the public is fine so long as he donates a small portion of it to charity and scholarships? Lol two wrongs don’t make a right

1. Coming refinery shutdown in 3Q18 how...

The last statutory turnaround was in 2015, thats 3 years ago. So you take whatever 'loss' youre going to experience for that quarter and 'divide / spread' over that number of years until the next stat. turnaround. Some say inventory is building up which will cover that period and now it looks even less bad doesnt it. Turnaround/shutdowns are part and parcel of the running of a refinery so dont go and take one quarter and annualise it. And the turnaround has all been clearly announced in advance i.e. there will be no 'shock' and if on that day some idiot shorts, you sapu and teach him a lesson that he shall never ever forget

2. But tax coming how...

Taxes are taxes, you have to pay no matter what if youre going to decide to be a part owner of a company because of the amount of taxes you are or are not going to pay then go fly a kite better...quote buffett and buying shares is part of buying a business but then go and look at quarter on quarter EPS lmao similarly what crude up, inventory gain youre a refinery not trader

The single most important factor to the bottom line is the refinery margins / crack spread wanna wait the analyst 'turnaround' and issue buy call and old man koon tell you to buy then only buy ah trololo

Lmao bunch of donkeys looking at technicals apa uptrend apa candle yesterday's drop whatever technicals also wont be able to predict la when a large shareholder(s) aka old man koon decides to sell (while again telling you to buy)

http://www.cmegroup.com/apps/cmegroup/widgets/productLibs/esignal-charts.html?code=D1N&title=FEB_2018_Singapore_Mogas_92_Unleaded_%28Platts%29_Brent_Crack_Spread_&type=p&venue=0&monthYear=G8&year=2018&exchangeCode=XNYM&chartMode=dynamic

Crack spreads (Mogas 92 vs Brent only) is now even higher than the Nov-Dec period (it closed at 9.967 wtf) - that's your 'higher-high' for you clueless technical analysts rite lol the lower spreads earlier of this month Jan was just a blip and the spreads will go even higher as you enter the traditionally strong season when Spring and Summer unfolds

Which means that when 'the trend reverses' (and we all know trends are backward-looking, amirite clueless technical analysts lmao) old man koon will be buying from you at a higher price, after selling into the drop which means youve just beaten the conman trololol

You're entering Spring and Summer season in the Northern Hemisphere, where crack spreads are traditionally high, and confirmed now to be high as the dip was only temporary the crack spreads will support the price from now until 4Q17 and thereafter going into 1H18 at the moment there are just no other companies that have the same kind of risk-return payoff all the best

Benchmark crack spreads are up...panic buying will ensue closer to 4Q17 results hantam now

Good good...let the fear flow through all of you

I sense a disturbance in the force

About an entire quarter too slow old man

As i was saying strong RM hoho...but market's can be irrational so close to GE...whatever happens TNB going forward will be stable and with strong dividends inst. funds will come

Tmr sell on news la

Ooolala

Wheres the liquidity

Ooh la la

Well there goes c39's profits zzzzz

13 also cannot hold, run la how many rounds u all wanna donate to old man koon

"For your information, I have not started selling seriously."
Not started selling seriously. Selling seriously

Wait for him to sell down seriously only run meh

Morning all noise, real move is in the afternoon

ICPT is positive, RM is strong, all these things point to TNB