@dragon328 @cktay

the main possible risk for supermicro's debacle to ytl is that, ytl may receive their hardware later/delayed...not that the data centre project will be in jeopardy

well ytl in unlikely to end up at the end of the que to get their required quantity of hardware, but supermicro being out of the hardware assembly supply chain will possibly disrupt the timing of receiving for ytl....unless nvidia really arm wrestle the other assemblers and clients in que within the same time of ytl putting order....

@dragon328

some clarifications :

1) trendforce is quite a reputable industry news source regarding tech, so their news reporting has some substance (they cite source from taiwan economic times)
2) supermicro's is one of the major AI hardware assemblers, and they do help clients build server hardware based on nvidia chips
3) supermicro's financial situations in shambles is also true, can't even get the audit report out (situation quite similar to what happened to infamous serbadinamik some years back, a lot of questionable non arms length transactions)
4) nvidia is an IC design company at it's core, they don't build the physical chips, hardware or server rack. Even if direct order from nvidia, it is subbed out to these hardware assemblers.
5) wiwynn's plant in johor is truly a physical available site, neighbouring to supermicro's plant within the same industrial park which is still under construction (which is also put on hold now due to the financial shambles they are in). The difference is that wiwynn's site has been fully constructed and in operation.

There is nothing else to argue about your other portion of analysis which are quite reasonable and well written

take the exchange rate of RM during the last quarter reporting vs the latest exchange rate, you see the % RM gained is quite close to the % down today

oh wow....strange that dragon328's post got removed....

singapore want to increase power allocation to their DC....indirectly positive in some sense as higher average/peak load do benefit powerseraya

@beinvested

No denying that sharing the Scriptures to others is good, but when i observe some of your past posts, there doesn't seem to be in the correct context. How can you use the Scriptures to imply buying/holding/selling or sentiments?

@beinvested

i hope you really understand what does it mean to properly use the Scriptures and not take His name in vain...

Do your best to present yourself to God as one approved, a worker who has no need to be ashamed, rightly handling the word of truth. (2 Tim 2:15)

and one more thing to add, how nvidia's share movement will not directly affect ytlp's share movements...reminder to the rest that are new here...

if those that really want direct share price corelation with nvidia, please look into supermicro stock....can compare the chart of nvidia and supermicro together.....actually, supermicro's price action is inherently leveraged towards nvidia share price even without using financial instruments :P

@ks55

crescendo land bank has issue with water supply; johor land aplenty, but with access to water supply is the problematic one. That is partially why ytl put in a significant stake into ranhill johor so they can get strategic priority for water supply.

kulai's data centre park will be partially supplied with their own solar power project (that is partnered with johor sultan), will tnb give problem to agung's project for backup power trunking??

And the data centre phase one is already almost ready for operation lar.....

anyway, it doesn't really matter nvidia's hardware ended up in which operators' hands lar....but consider this :

1) who has internal management experience to build, deploy and run a data centre (top to bottom)?
2) who has the capability to handle the power supply and water side of the equation to run the data centre?
3) who has ready reserve area that has the convenience of both 1 and 2?

It is not inconceivable that any big tech company that wants to deploy their data centres in the future will query for ytl first because of the above, pretty much a convenient single turnkey to deploy their capacity once sign the dotted line. And ytl doesn't seem to have any major issue with delays for the infrastructure projects, that is an added bonus.

Someone forwarded this message to me from an investment chat group :

643mil shares changed hands at auction time today on index-linked stocks alone. YTL and YTL Power alone 300mil and 212mil shares

Impact of MSCI rebalancing??!!

Or another way AI space can develop, is akin to the Android and Apple ecosystem for smartphones.

AI market space should be pretty large and enough for a titan in fully integrated space (nvidia?) and another titan in open space development style (RISCV?).

And another possible dark horse will be ARM (which incidentally falls in between this 2 spaces with semi customised solutions available)

what nvidia can do now is to capture as many clients into the hardware and software stack, and make the switching cost as high as possible. It is understandable and most feasable for nvidia to do so to capture the profits in this market space now.....but being in the tech space is always be on the lookout for disruptors that can emerge very quickly to upseat you....

@probability

Although the current market condition directly equate AI developments with nvidia, the fact of the matter is that this could shift quite drastically if another method of processing data faster and more efficiently gets discovered. The moat for nvidia is that they have an existing GPGPU and CUDA foundation that sets the ecosystem standards for the past few years and at least another 3 years.

For those looking into AI space, do monitor the space of RISCV developments as this is the open source alternative where China will likely want to put a lot of emphasis in due to the current tech/chip war waged by the western front. Another point is that Jim Keller, a microarchitecture titan is deeply involved in using RISCV for AI and he starts to comment on the inefficiencies with nvidia's ecosystem. This was also the guy that helped AMD lay the foundation of the Ryzen/EPYC series processor a decade back when AMD was at the brink of dying. Look at how AMD is now.....

@ks55

I did a ballpark calculation on the nvidia hardware cost about 2 months back :

first phase of of data centre is 72MW, but for hyperscale load is 48MW (SEA group confirmed taking 32MW)....concrete initial roll out is 8MW by Q12024

so nvidia will be having the remaining 16MW....taking into account the peak load of DGX unit is 10.2KW and assuming it is the full package of 8 pieces H100, so equivalent about up to 12k units of h100 to be deployed...

So total cost of h100 hardware alone is at least US$360 million (if based on US$30k price per unit)

.........

so let's say including the building shell, associated hardwares, additional units of AI accelerator hardware for standby, infrastructure, overheads, etc...lets say top up another USD100 mil....so first phase not exceeding USD500mil

a lot meh......

remember that not too long ago, they just won SGD800mil power plant project in singapore....

ytl group very pandai in big value projects lah....

now wait for wessex water tariff revision confirmed...in the mean time, can go sideways a while or possible up to 15% share price drop until then....wessex water tariff revision will be another wave....

just wait out this correction and consolidation phase...i'm waiting for it

if it drops further, it will be another good entry point, the data centre will have a really good income stream in the mid/long term, in addition with the soon to be adjusted water tariff on wessex water end....quite a lot can play out for the remainder of 2024

ytlp has another advantage, which is the royalty of Johor sultanate. The johor royal family has invested in the solar farm.

And the johor sultan being the agung for the next 5 years, the federal and state government will (some how) likely give preferential treatment for investment approvals and utilities connection to ytl's data centre. Surprisingly, reliable water and electricity supply is rather limited in malaysia and somehow, ytl has this portion cornered through strategic investment and also royal family tie up....

After all, how can tnb and the federal/state authorities don't approve connection to agung's investments right?? :P

@MOBAjobg

Actually, ytlp has a really big leg up since they have the required infrastructure and most importantly, the data centre management capabilities on hand. Other data centres that wants to setup here will most likely approach ytlp first because of the above.

Although it is rare that such a high profile company will have such publicity towards one of our corporation, nvidia is afterall, pretty much a hardware provider to ytlp. The focus should be how many companies that want to sign up to use ytlp's data centre park.

i believe that the profit from power seraya has plateued and likely will not go up or go up slightly only and may start to weaken maybe in about 2 quarters time....but at least we can be comforted that the big wave of earnings will be from wessex water as the tariff adjustment will come around that time.....

also, a reliable bird from the fund industry mentioned that the attarat power arbitration is actually a done deal as the bilings received are at contractual volume for quite some time despite it is still in arbitration. So the USD100 mil from attarat considered secured.

actually would have preferred that ytlp to not be included under msci.....any shit to our political situation or country level macroeconomy also will cause sell down no matter the fundamentals of this counter can be

hahaha aih......see my posting history lar.....

3.50 mari, i'm waiting.....

why no reach 3.50 T_T

I want to load more with lower average price......

@xiaochen
去看一下辉达的财报，你就可以知道新加坡对他们的贡献有多大

https://www.tomshardware.com/tech-industry/artificial-intelligence/us-takes-the-china-chip-war-to-the-next-level

this news will be somewhat positive in the mid term for all AI or conventional data centres....naturally also towards ytlp.....so it is imperative that their data centre project doesn't have any major delays....

"The U.S. government is introducing a proposal to prevent foreign entities, particularly from China, from using U.S. cloud computing for AI model training, the U.S. Commerce Secretary Gina Raimondo announced this week, reports Reuters. The Biden administration sees it as an effort to safeguard national security and the U.S. technological superiority. Meanwhile, Chinese entities can still access services deployed in Europe and the Middle East.

“We can’t have non-state actors or China or folks who we don’t want accessing our cloud to train their models,” Raimondo told Reuters. “We use export controls on chips,” she noted. “Those chips are in American cloud data centers so we also have to think about closing down that avenue for potential malicious activity.”

what will really bring eyeballs to malaysia is a 10 year project for highspeed railway from thailand-penang-ipoh-kl-melaka-jb-singapore

just screw the financing as the spillover effects from people and trade movement will more than cover it over the decades

but no doubt that ytl has always been prudent and long term in their planning and expansion

for those that hold this counter, really need to monitor the progress of data centre and their first earnings....it is not a surefire win that data centre = confirmed earnings.....there could be teething issues and even possibly insufficient take up rate...

just keep in mind of the premium running now are focused more on the data centre development alongside AI partnership with nvidia.....if can't deliver well, it doesn't bode well for this counter....so be mindful of the risk

@AITugauw

I hope you understand that your device or computer you used has some form of israeli programming/enginnering done on it....so is the waze that was developed by israeli before being acquired.....so is facebook run by a jew....so is quite a lot of military equipment used by our tentera.....and even more so of the financial system which is awashed with jewish trading all around....

focus on what is good for the country, only when a country is strong that she can stand in the world stage and other nations will listen

quite a few counters going limit down or close to limit down.....ikan bilis harvest time has arrived.....so got possibility of a correction for this ytlp to rm3

can only hope insas is not a pump and dump.....has been a value trap for so many years and the company not willing to share out the retained earnings in any meaningful way, and suddenly now just shoot up

despite the buzz from so many people, the main contributor in properly analysing this counter is dragon328.....freaking regret i looked away from the market for too long and missed his articles also....

again, everyone, please read all the YTL articles written by dragon328, very very well written and broken down....have the patience to go through the long read, it is worth it

@KLV868
You sure that is a good thing? That indirectly also mean future EPF dividend maybe be lesser....our market's alpha and competitive advantage is comparatively meh against our more competitive neighbours.....

lets say ytlp really hit rm12 in the future, but that future is at 2030-2035, how many of you are willing to wait patiently ah?

@xiaochen
the journalist that wrote this nanyang article misunderstood the initial use of nvidia CUDA, and Jensen Huang/nvidia didn't develop it because they foresaw/prepare for the current boom of AI.

It so happens that the programming structure together with nvidia hardware coincidentally is very effective on processing large amounts of data in parallel, just as how a gpu can render a 3d frame in real time with so much light complexity. (I'm grossly simplifying for understanding because it is a damn complex topic)

those that are excited about this counter, please stay sound and refrain from directly correlating nvidia's performance with ytlp's performance....it is not even earning a single sen yet for the data centre division, and not even sure whether the margin will be good or not (although we all hope to)

no doubt that the recent share price movement has something to do with AI hype and nvidia, but the more important relevant portion is the earnings from the CURRENT ongoing operations.....please properly read dragon328's articles on ytl/ytlp properly (have patience to read it through, he spent a lot of effort breaking it down in writing for all to see)

if 2 days continuous 30%, then will have UMA alert, this type won't

to be fair, for the supporters of this counter, please don't bash those that want to take profit...

the saying goes that only by taking profit that the profit is truly yours, or else it is merely just a green positive number in your trading account

PADU not using nvidia AI
The only thing related to ytlpower on AI with the government is the development of a malay based large language model

and in enterprise setting, the redundancy also provide hot swap capability, meaning you can change out the power supply unit even when the compute unit is running...again back to the uptime guarantee, not logic right to shut down the compute service just to change power supply

Redundant power supply doesn't add to the total peak load, it is still same 10.2kW per DGX unit per specification. The redundant units will just remain on standby and kick in only when one of the supply units fail.

The reason why the total power supply is higher than peak draw is to account for possible transient load spikes that is much higher than the rated power draw (but in milisecond basis). If there is no buffer, such load spikes will trigger overcurrent circuit protection and shut down the power supply. Further, as the power supply keeps running along, despite being electronic, component ageing will set in and decrease the efficiency and possible power load delivery.

Since data centres will have uptime guarantees in the supply contract, so this is the way to take care of "just in case" situation.

rm350k per unit is resale price, if direct from nvidia reasonably, likely half of that price...

first phase of of data centre is 72MW, but for hyperscale load is 48MW (SEA group confirmed taking 32MW)....concrete initial roll out is 8MW by Q12024

so nvidia will be having the remaining 16MW....taking into account the peak load of DGX unit is 10.2KW and assuming it is the full package of 8 pieces H100, so equivalent about up to 12k units of h100 to be deployed...

So total cost of h100 hardware alone is at least US$360 million (if based on US$30k price per unit)

just one risk for non bank counters that got newly included in index, got trend that most of them bombed out within 2 years due to industry cycle or sentiment....

let's just hope ytlpower's premium didn't get priced in too much currently or market will price ytlpower reasonably in the future to keep the counter in the index

Just to be fair, yes it is indeed really positive for nvidia to tie up with ytl power for their data centre, i believe this is nvidia's first direct tie up with a data centre, whereas mostly is nvidia sell the hardware to data centre provider.

Nvidia choosing ytlpower definitely is a show of confidence to both the company and malaysia. The main attraction point is due to the data centre being powered by green energy, a very sustainable development for the industry and nvidia.

Why malaysia was chosen mainly is due to the green energy and also the close proximity with regional AI talent (singapore). The data centre has difficulty to be placed in singapore very much due to the limited supply of energy (and a bit of the higher overheads in property/facilities). And the lesser positive point is due to the fact that the hardware end of the business is lower margin. Most of the margin on AI is the software/programming side, not the hardware.

Nevertheless, despite the fact that our positioning is not on the sweetest or largest part of the AI industry pie, at least malaysia have a chance to have a nice footing on. Having a good footing brings potential for development into up/downstream of the AI industry for the country.

Still....the MOST important aspect is, hopefully ytl can execute it on time and within budget without major hiccups. I personally don't think financing will be an issue with ytl being very experienced in infrastructure/building, alongside a titan in AI hardware as partner.

If this pioneering project can be executed well, it will bring further investments from related companies to invest on data centre infrastructure here and hopefully build the AI ecosystem here even further.

sidenote :
H100 unit from nvidia, albeit powerful, is not their most advanced hardware (stated in some of the news clippings), H200 is the most powerful offering by nvidia now

feel like nice spot to average down

last few weeks left to washout.......when august results are out, this is when the fun starts.....

if expect the prospects and earnings to be good, buy the dips over the next few weeks...

if got good news, then possibility will have movements closer to their next financial announcement.

likely will still remain muted throughout january

all minority shareholder eat dust....

@Damien88, the next best thing is go their agm bang table....or else us super minority owners just need to surrender the trust to the management.

@GGecko

If really believe company value will go higher, why sell warrants now when can sell higher later?

He's not that poor until need to sell stake to buy rice right?