Make America Great Again!

US government, i give you proposal, just buy Supermax....just USD10B only, you secured your whole country's glove demand....

US$10B ONLY....small change to your Fed balance sheet, like rounding difference only....lai lelong lelong...just 80% premium of today's closing....

lelong lelong.....just give me 1 million advisory fee....

foreign funds are running out of our markets, how to chiong the share price with merely local funds?

if supermax listed in US, then yes, there would be an insane PE of at least 100x...but supermax in malaysia....

the most optimistic scenario is that all the foreign funds rushing in to buy glove stocks in malaysia, but our market has limit de....if can break new highs 6 months down the road, very good lor....

Post removed.Why?

2 more quarters of growing solid earning required for another FOMO rush...which means next year after Us president officially inaugurated....too many political uncertainties internally and externally which makes big funds cautious in pouring money into emerging markets....

the fact of the day is that malaysia is among the lowest preference for money flows of foreign funds into emerging markets, mahathir just poured more cold water with his twitter warrior instincts (just plain cruel way of thought; a genuine muslim won't say things this outrageous even in rage) so no more limit up days in the future for big gloves...

but i feel still will trend up, just not going to be fast and furious like the period between april to july...more like 2 step forward, 1 step back...

those wanting to swing trade, be very cautious and avoid indexed counters.

Indexed counters (including hartalega) will have hard time moving if merely rely on small pool of retailers. The higher price also not helping either....

Fund flows are slow....all stay on sideline due to :
1) US election (especially if donald trump losses and don't want to concede, then it will be an absolute roller coaster ride legal haywire fight till official inauguration day after mid january 2021)
2) our shitty political landscape : foreign funds shun countries with such situation, they hate uncertainty.

Both combined, my opinion is that all big glove counters share price would remain range bound for the remainder of 2020. Only after 2 more quarters of solid growing earnings report, then only the FOMO may overtake the market and rush into glove.

So patience required, hype is there, but funds not flowing in, just too bad for now. For those want to swing trade the sentiment, If found a good entry point, remember to set a reasonable stop loss. Don't turn your trade into a "long term" investment. For those holding and confident of it, just continue waiting it out.

I myself predict a really strong bull only after US president inaugurated, which mean close to next year's chinese new year. Those that cannot swallow these gyrations, better let go of your open trade positions and only enter next year.

No matter how many CWs issued, if there are funds willing to chase, all issuing house will be obliterated, no matter how much they hold (they sure hold some to hedge themselves, but not that much actually). Recall the run up after mid march till july, many millionaires for those warrant players...because the risk all on sentiment both locally and also foreign...

Our politics now really pour very cold water la...all glove counters will be affected...the vaccine issue pretty much proved a non issue now as the multiple corrections still didn't crash glove counters. Funds (all local and foreign funds except EPF/KWAP/LTH) really hate political uncertainty one. If there are no signs that Muhyiddin cannot have a secure administration despite passing the upcoming budget, every few weeks some politicians drums up something, things will still remain rocky until the next election...our market will be a laggard compared to other emerging markets.

And due to the insanity of trump/gop, things will not truly settle down until official inauguration day near end of January...

Will require 2 more quarters to prove real earnings visibility that maybe FOMO herd will rush the price up. .

I still hold this counter and 2 others, i'm still in the green as i'm in just after 1st MCO. But for those wanting to swing trade this, set a reasonable stop loss, don't unwillingly end up turning into "long term" investment.

Whether we like it or not, expectations need to be tapered...don't expect any more limit up days anymore for glove counters...

The again quick growing covid19 cases in the west is a definite plus, but we are forgetting one crucial factor, our shitty political landscape. If recall back to the May-August euphoria, that was when there were much lesser uncertainty of the continuity of the Muhyiddin in the administration; contrast with the political situation now...pretty obvious...

The US elections was already a big factor for foreign funds to back off for the moment, but our unstable situation just makes it totally unattractive even when their risk profile switches. Malaysian markets will be much lower in their preference even when foreign funds start to flow back to emerging market. Foreign fund flows are already negative for more than half a year already, and coupled with their fund indexing nature, more sell down leads to more sell down....

Despite the almost certain full year future earnings of glove counters for 2021, we can only hope there is still some of these high risk alpha seeking funds trickle to the glove counters. That's the reality, without foreign funds, share prices will be harder to push higher and at the pace that we want. Local funds are already pretty strapped because of added redemptions to tide over some of the investors cash crunch. So fresh funds are already scarce.

However, if the coming budget can be passed without hiccups, that would be the glimmer of hope for stability and subsequently more favourable foreign funds participation into our markets.

if he didn't messed up 1mdb, the country would've benefited exponentially...instead of losing many billions and much more untold billions of lost opportunity due to tarnishing the image of the whole country...

mantap hypocrite max level...

risky venture for mah sing, but a profitable one, but likely not as profitable as some might think.

i do think mah sing is too optimistic in their schedule and their glove venture won't be profitable until at least beginning of 2022....they are building up everything from scratch, so the learning curve will be there to optimise their production.

if they were genuinely that serious, could have just bought up a reasonably established smaller glove makers, and expand the capacity with mah sing's spare warehouse.

i think will test rm9 first before another uptrend....quarter announcement will not give it a good price boost.

only after US election over, the funds reassess and rebalance, then only will have a clearer trend....but by that time already past mid november.....

just be patient la....if those recently enter, set a reasonable stop loss because never know what tomorrow entails....

in short, those that enter recently/want to trade/chase high, set your stop loss....don't be emotional about it....

those that believe can reach higher peaks, just stomach it...

those that cannot stomach it, end your trade and be happy with your profit/loss.

the reality is covid cases trending up again and gaining speed in the west, the demand will still be there...

Drop 1 more day, there will be stock buy back again...i think...

@whenarmada

I guess you switch to timecom, very slow movements and not theme related for this period of time, less fluctuations....you can sleep well with this counter as the earnings are like clockwork. I would say beneficial because more networking requirement for work from home/MCO limitations.

If you fancy quick swing trade, you need more experience, a strong gut feeling/intuition for news flows and quick fingers plus very strong stop loss targets.

Keep your emotions in control and just learn from your mistakes.

You better don't touch gloves stocks anymore, i don't think the glove theme euphoria 2-3 months ago will be happening again although i myself think that it will make new highs within 6 months timeframe. Just that there will be lots of gyrations.

local+foreign funds are likely selling, risk off till US elections over...our political situation also not helping at all...

mid novemeber only will stabalise, likeliness of touching rm8 is quite high.

those cannot stomach, just close your trade and wait for another entry point.

otherwise, just sit it out....these gyrations will keep repeating itself almost every quarter...

Foreign funds selling some positions. Risk off till US elections over....

Only after mid november, then only will price trend stabalise.

be very careful for those that want to chase...already reached most of the IB's target price for 1 year ahead....now definitely in speculative zone and be very quick in your trades as can reverse quickly.

remember, the plant has not been set up and not even a single piece of glove sold, yet the stock price is already pricing in margin contribution?

no doubt they can complete the plant by q2 next year (take note, it is next year), but :
1) they are not producing 3.7B gloves by then, their announcement is just their probable maximum capacity at the site.
2) most likely run at most 3 lines by then, slowly ramping up to 12 in 2-3 years time.
3) realistically, not likely to be profitable at all for their production in q3 and q4 2021. It takes time to fine tune; remember this is a brand new totally unrelated setup
4) don't expect very high margins, their efficiency target is so so at best. 38k pieces per line per hour vs hartalega's 65k, big gap to catch up. The other big boy all at the higher end of 50k.
5) another question is how are they going to find enough labour? Margma already stated quite short handed now, can mah sing employ enough line workers? Their 38k/line/hour doesn't suggest very high levels of automation.

all printscreen too small, can't see the details

USA should just buy up topglove la...

Not only can they secure glove supply for good in perpetuity, they can also "reform" the industry to show us what is true "best practices" in hiring and operations....

Show us your MAGA power donald trump....cost your country about US$25B only to buy up topglove....small change only right??!!

Make so much noise....like they are so innocent and truly altruistic....

puik...

If that is so, then please USA, show your MAGA power and altruism.

Buy up topglove up, pretty good ante for your presidential bid. You fully secured in perpetuity your glove requirement for good. And you can "reform" the process and industry standards to newer heights. Show the glove industry what is the best hiring practices while keeping costs in control.

Costs you about US$25B only....super small change to you right??!!

Looks like the total fines/penalties/settlement/legal fees for CBP's focus on topglove will likely double.

US likes to use legal means to extract economic gains...

US should try building their own glove plant if they are so "ethical" about their country's business operations....

Feel like this counter will bounce around 1.50-1.70 for another month....if want to trade something more exciting, go other counter...whether like it or not, this counter needs syndicates/IB/goreng kakis to push, or else it will just stay at a certain range for a period of time.

The fundamental basis is that glove plants line expansion is a guaranteed work in progress, pretty much all big and small players are taking opportunity to expand. HLT will definitely benefit from all these works. Just hope that their management don't propose razor thin margins to the glove makers to win expansion contracts..

And for the time being, their 1B gloves can still sell well into mid next year. Got some recurring stable income for next few quarters...

Smells kinda like HLT chart in the making, be careful and quick to cabut when trend reversal. This is not big cap, price can change either way very fast.

US will drag here and there, they don't need to hurry, because they big brother want to act guailan...that can't be helped....

i have a bad feeling that total impact for this ordeal (remediation payment + CBP fines + legal fees) will reach USD100 million...

too bad that trump confirmed kena covid19 on friday...after the weekend holidays, the sentiment will cool down already when the next trading days come next monday....i don't expect another big jump in the share price unless malaysia confirmed case rises significantly over the weekend...still a good end for the week.

can add, but not a good idea to all in, likely to be a short term blip then back to normal volatility of the past 2 weeks....

trump + wife covid19 positive, could be a good short term gain for covid19/medical related counters

These big funds have a range/weighting to maintain. Some are auto balanced, some can be controlled manually. As long as within their weighting range for a particular sector within a certain timeframe, there isn't anything wrong with them trading.

Because of the number of shares they hold, if a quick trade can make them (let's say) 50k in one week, hey, why not? EPF members benefit right? Although no doubt it can go the wrong way also.

Those big overseas hedge/mutaul/quant funds also do that at their local markets....really no big deal. It is just that our market is small, any larger fund movements can cause a stir.

will bounce around at this price level for a while.....so those cannot tahan, don't get into this stock until see clear reversal.

there will be a number of cw expiring till november....so whether IBs will play the game or not is up to you to decide...again if cannot stomach the volatility, don't get in for the time being....i feel it may test lows again in october....

one thing for sure is that when supermax & kossan listed into main index officially, there will be a round of portfolio rebalancing which will benefit this 2 counters.

Just wait it out, refer to what happened during the previous quarter's announcement, price depressed for more than 2 weeks even though very high profit announcement that time. Beginning july only back to uptrend.

If got cash and willing to take more risk, can collect as it might go a little lower.

ok lor...don't buy from topglove...

Then buy from who? There is more than 50% chance that will still end up with gloves supplied by another malaysian manufacturer.

Yikes.....one heck of an expensive vaccine. Even the pneumococcal (one of the most expensive mass available vaccine) costs less than Sinopharm's covid19 vaccine estimates.

Don't expect those vaccine candidates other from western countries to be priced at mass affordable level like the current flu jab (~RM80). This is going to be one extra hurdle for the mass adoption of vaccine.

These pharma companies, already controversial for their drugs pricing, will surely not miss the opportunity to make an absolute killing on the selling prices of the covid19 vaccines.

sanichi has no focus, always chasing the trend, but a good trading counter

i too have reservation on the speed of the covid19 vaccine development....the efficacy bar is set very low, just above 50% and it is good to go....there's the balance between speed and efficacy. But due to the severity of the pandemic, speed is pushed ahead with the assumption that even if 50% effective, it will reduce the future impact by at least that quantum post vaccine approval and public distribution.

Likely that covid19 strain will be part of the bi yearly flu vaccination in the days ahead. Strong and long lasting immune response towards coronavirus has generally been elusive.

If not, there won't be yearly flu vaccines, it will look more like a regular vaccination schedule for a new born child with a booster dose before they reach adulthood.

i think i should review my estimation...600m sales/275m profit

i guess 600m

If truly it is politically motivated as you mentioned, it is just plain evil of jared kushner. If play this kind of tactics on the enemy, understandable maybe even commendable.

But doing this in the midst of a worsening pandemic, at the misery of the healthcare front liners, possibly endangering the many lives of people in the country, plain sick is an understatement....

Another reason i though of is the Trump's usual bully tactics, to subdue one to his will. This could be engineered as an example to the PPE industry to keep prices low/steady, if not block you from selling into US markets.

But his nature in lack of general knowledge, lack of foresight (other than self interests) impulsive nature and disdain towards counsel/advice prevented him from realising the big picture that there is a giant que/backlog others. He maybe thought that there are easy supplies locally or other parties that are desperate to supply US at lower cost.

If succeed, he can claim an easy win in 1 aspect of the pandemic, that is the lower cost of procuring PPE.

Damn fat hope though...

scam account, trying to fool unsuspecting readers....always talking about hartalega, most likely related to HerbertChua.

https://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/Herbert/blidx.jsp

the real one is Pelham Blue Fund :
https://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/pelhambluefund/blidx.jsp

also please read hartalega's own sister site about anti microbial glove, the FAQ didn't specifically mention the efficacy against viruses :
https://amgantimicrobialglove.com/faqs/#1539587185010-c2fc577d-c0c0

lastly, FDA approval on it still in limbo. Dragged for sometime already and unlikely be sped up because got more urgent medical devices or products that FDA needed to review for COVID19 treatment/prevention use.