pang72 kaki trading....anything with good breakout, he/she will be there....

looks like someone kena margin call again around 11am.

Don't know this is merely a fizzle or a possible base for uptrend....but the fact remains that they are about to sell 2 ships by q3....

don't say this counter dirt cheap without knowing the risks.....although i believe EY special audit will clear them to about 70% of the way, definitely will have some impairment. No impairment definitely the best case for those that have position in this counter.

they are also in a liquidity crunch and anytime may have a rights issue or special placement....their debts are coming due within a year and the sum is not small....222mil USD, equivalent to almost RM 1B due May next year...

i also have a small position in this, but purely gambling, because got possibility 50% can be gone by year end...

What gives you the confidence to say that 2b per quarter can last for at least another 1 year to even 2 years?

Other glove makers also increasing capacities, and overall asp are forecasted to drop over the quarters. You implying that hartalega can maintain their asp for extended time frame?

@TakeProfits

At least will hold until EY completed their assignment for serba dinamik, maybe few more weeks.

Will still continue to monitor BAT. I believe got possibility will slowly climb close to 16 till around next quarter announcement.

i exit my position in the morning, switch to serba dinamik, worth the short term trading risk....

come back here later :)

don't get over your heads, parliament open focus on pandemic management, then economic priorities, then maybe new legislations (if got time)....vape/ecig bill, likely only after next GE....

On the objective side of things, pe at this level for a metal stamping company is kind of high. The market and the company package UWC as semiconductor company but in actual fact, their operations still more of assembly work.

But let's just see what the latest quarterly report shows and how their plans for the future operations are progressing. If the growth is in tact or increasing, this PE could still be worth it.

liquor always kena hantam by opportunistic politicians, easy target because of religious haram....

but smoking, despite haram, more addictive and much much harder to quit....so will give lager room for survival.....

the sundry shop that i go usually still sells black market cigs, but another contact says that their side wine and cig smuggling business getting slow....

So at least got some optimism....

There is unlikely interest rate will go down, inflation is on the way. Even if lock down continues, interest rate will more likely stay put and slight uptick starting next year maybe 2nd half.

1.5% is the lowest for the foreseeable future (even though i don't think it will happen), going to 1% is impossible. Foreign money will run faster which the our government don't want to happen as US will likely see sentiment of interest rate rising pressure. Double whammy, almost like when 1mdb imploded time, so again unlikely in my opinion.

good luck, could be a good rebound trade

Read the tone of their big boss announcement, not exactly positive. If next quarter so so, then can consider the recovery timeframe will drag longer.

Most police now deploy for covid19 control, lesser for investigation and raids; customs enforcement don't know how much affected as 80% government sector not working at office...

So the black market share of ciggies won't really drop.

After more vaccinations and the pandemic over, the financial ministry will see big budget hole, then will start enforcement hard. The question becomes when will that day come....

nope, just open financial results page, there are no definite seasonality towards their sales trend.

Logically, the smoking addiction is pretty much constant throughout the year, more likely getting heavier addition the longer one smokes.

@batman666

I just do simple calculation based on this quarter result.

PAT : 63m x 4 = agak agak 250m
EPS : 22.1 x 4 = 88cents (just round up to 90)

Those holding c3 and c4, my gut is just sell.

Definitely will retest 14.50

Good place to start your que, but be flexible to adjust if you really want to enter.

Before entry, read the report from their big boss, big issue with smuggling through small jetty despite limited transshipment and almost no improvement toward black market share. His latest tone is not positive, so assume won't get any better from now on.

To be conservative, better base your forward valuation 250m profit a year. Conservative full year EPS of 90 cents at share price of rm15 gets you 6% dividend yield. Question is how will market evaluate it?

The vape product will still take some time to materialise since parliament is doing nothing to bring forward favourable legislations. Looking at this useless lineup in parliament, i personally don't think vape legislation will happen until the next general election settled.

tomorrow small gap down...

wait....where you folks get the numbers?

i still don't see it on bursa website as of now.

@williamh
It is MCO sell down, almost 90% of counters down at opening, go look at the major non medical counters. most sell first, partial rebound a later.

Mr DIY much more likely to be in index than BAT 25b vs 4.5b market cap of BAT....

volume so low....very unlikely got big fund flows in this counter today.

wa....drag report announcement....usually don't happen if good news....

Wah.....result terror!

@SinGor
You go check back the post 6 months la....you can agak agak know my entry price....before want to suan people, go do your homework first...go look back what i posted before in BAT and see what i wrote before the previous quarter announcement and compare against the actual announcement...

I no need pretend, my own guesstimate PAT for this coming quarter won't exceed 90million, EPS not more than 32 cents. The reality of illegal cigs will take a long time to bring down, our parliament hang due to emergency also will significantly delay any legislation for liquid/vape products that will benefit BAT.

And i just want to caution others about those buying into the hype because of what their other country's division are doing outside their cig and vape business. Malaysia BAT not involved in those.

BAT malaysia solely on malaysia's operation, what their other non ciggy related activities in other countries won't have any effect over here....

Until stated other wise by the local management here, don't buy/sell into the hype of those news flow of BAT of other country.

Don't be surprised that the share price will drop after earnings announcement, to flush out warrant and weak holders....

I'm conservative, don't really think that the EPS can be more than 32 cents.

On the positive side, i feel that after this quarter announcement, the shares will probably stabalise above 14.50 thereon.

@williamh

yesterday wasn't even a washout, for a proper washout, it needs at least -10% move la....

dropping below 15 baru the beginning of a washout

don't be surprised got possibility of dropping below 15 before another uptrend within this 3 months or so...

hope i'm wrong but seeing the spike like this means speculators are attracted...that's why counters like this slow slow gradual up better.

could close the day at 15.50

slow slow up better, don't want too much attention....

noooo.....spike too fast....i don't like....too much attention....there will be more volatility instead of the slow slow crawl of the past 2 weeks which is much preferred...

Slow slow up under the radar best for holders.

@JJchan
wa....sure boh? next quarter result only 2 weeks away....

Can stand firmly above rm15 by end May is already a good achievement for all bottom fishers.

wa....suddenly some big lots traded...

BPM still have about 50 million shares to dispose, if sell about 8-10 million shares a week could take about 2 months to fully clear off.

@JJchan
Understand the optimism, but then even with 1B revenue, the net profit will not be at 1Q16 level. If really at that level, net profit will likely be around 100m, EPS around 35 cents range.

I still think highly unlikely, 30 cents EPS really at best case for this quarter. My feeling is around 28 cents EPS.

Although i'm hoping to be pleasantly surprised....

ok....if 15.50, i sell my c3....

if can see 700mil revenue, consider very good progress, 1B is a little too far fetched. End of year at 800mil already very good.

Divided maybe around 27-29 cents, i really don't see it more than 30 cents unless per JJchan prediction of 1B sales can materialise.

Economic condition still not fantastic, smoke addiction kick in but still ikat perut, go for KYO or lower end segment still apply for now. Dunhill maybe when year end bonus good.

please compile the info of your models into something we can read and understand....

not just plain words

this is insanity....just take care and watch out...

what happen in US don't affect us, BAT in bursa is malaysia market numbers....

Slow slow up nicer....don't spook the markets, later fomo rush in, then fomo rush out....big price gyration not nice...

yeah right...corruption wisdoms...

bingung government....legislation drag drag drag.....positive legislation for BAT earliest 2nd half of 2022....

still have to sit it out...damn the warrant cannot untung....

i thought this channel can be clean.... T__T

this space initiative likely a colab to better utilise their engineering training facilities/capabilities...mainly for company exposure, not much impact on bottom line...

if can benefit, lagi best....

if just for show, won't make losses either...

parliament suspended, how to enact new law....new regulation can only materialise 6 months after next election....next year affair already....

now can only hope the authorities really hantam the contraband ciggs....other wise still stuck in this price range...

small catch in the overall picture, but if they do this monthly, that would give a better perception of the authorities actually doing "something"

@DickyMe

Do you see the same problem in singapore where the taxes even higher?

All about seriousness of enforcement....porous borders not an excuse.....

My warrant habis....paper loss sia...

This counter so many "turnaround", restructuring and renaming, quite a con counter.....

To have a benefit of doubt, monitor the receivables....just hope the customer is legit and will really pay up.

vap liquid related legislation likely next year affair, no longer this year....

for now, buy this counter for dividend and to shield yourself from rotation volatility, don't trade and don't touch the warrants, even c3 and c4, won't make any profit out of this unless really dramatic profit surprise (which again very very unlikely at this juncture)