3 people like this.

49 comment(s). Last comment by Andre Kua 2021-09-10 09:57

wkc5657

245 posts

Posted by wkc5657 > 2021-08-12 12:18 | Report Abuse

What gives you the confidence to say that 2b per quarter can last for at least another 1 year to even 2 years?

Other glove makers also increasing capacities, and overall asp are forecasted to drop over the quarters. You implying that hartalega can maintain their asp for extended time frame?

dawchok

416 posts

Posted by dawchok > 2021-08-12 12:21 | Report Abuse

Harta is the most efficient glove company in Bursa judging from its highest net margin. While Harta is running at 48000pcs/hour, others are running at 38000. Old Kwan once joked informally that if Harta drops ASP, many glove companies will disappear from the market.

dawchok

416 posts

Posted by dawchok > 2021-08-12 12:23 | Report Abuse

Highest net margin was calculated at pre-Covid normal biz environment.

gohkimhock

2,572 posts

Posted by gohkimhock > 2021-08-12 12:36 | Report Abuse

welcome to Bursa Casino. I have been here since 1994..

Sslee

10,770 posts

Posted by Sslee > 2021-08-12 13:27 | Report Abuse

Quarter end 30 June 2021. NP margin: 57.96%
Quarter end 31 March 2021. NP margin: 48.92%
Quarter end 31 Dec 2020. NP margin: 47.32%
Quarter end 30 Sept 2020. NP margin: 40.84%
Quarter end 30 June 2020. NP margin: 24.03%
Quarter end 31 March 2020. NP margin: 14.87%

So next few quarters what should be the NP margin before customers make complaint you are a profiteer at my expense?

stockraider

30,487 posts

Posted by stockraider > 2021-08-12 13:35 | Report Abuse

It is for sure gloves gloves margin & profit after tax margin will be falling due to over production & intense competition loh!

But....is it still ....worthwhile based current price leh ??


U see we are looking....at a negative growth stock investment scenario for gloves loh...!

How do u value a negative growth stock which is the opposite of growth stock leh ?

LaoTzeAhSir

1,303 posts

Posted by LaoTzeAhSir > 2021-08-12 14:26 | Report Abuse

tin kosong raider keep your mouth shut. don't pollute the forum.

Yu_and_Mee

3,094 posts

Posted by Yu_and_Mee > 2021-08-12 14:29 | Report Abuse

only brave people dare to buy

Posted by leehualoon > 2021-08-12 14:34 | Report Abuse

at RM6.50. buying at the price of 11th March 2021 when covid is announced as pandemic. the risk and reward. reward is higher than the risk of going down. look at face mask. is face mask going to pre covid level? no right. despite of monstrous capacity flow into the market. let alone glvoe where the barrier of entry is higher than mask.

stockraider

30,487 posts

Posted by stockraider > 2021-08-12 15:47 | Report Abuse

U see gloves is simply a cincai easy produce commodity product mah!

Newcomer like mahsing with no previous gloves experience....within less than 6 mths....already become a major gloves producers in the country with few billion capacity mah!

Like that, how leh ?....that means many competitors on the way mah!

Surely ASP will fall loh.....!

Posted by stockraider > Aug 12, 2021 1:35 PM | Report Abuse X

It is for sure gloves gloves margin & profit after tax margin will be falling due to over production & intense competition loh!

But....is it still ....worthwhile based current price leh ??


U see we are looking....at a negative growth stock investment scenario for gloves loh...!

How do u value a negative growth stock which is the opposite of growth stock leh ?

stockraider

30,487 posts

Posted by stockraider > 2021-08-12 15:50 | Report Abuse

If u plant palmoil u need to wait at least 5 years to fruits mah...but rubber gloves....6 mths already set up can produce rubber gloves already loh!


Posted by stockraider > Aug 12, 2021 3:47 PM | Report Abuse X

U see gloves is simply a cincai easy produce commodity product mah!

Newcomer like mahsing with no previous gloves experience....within less than 6 mths....already become a major gloves producers in the country with few billion capacity mah!

Like that, how leh ?....that means many competitors on the way mah!

Surely ASP will fall loh.....!

Posted by CynicalCyan > 2021-08-12 21:28 | Report Abuse

The legendary guy who bought TOPGLOV & held for 10 years is back, investing in his circle of competence in glove companies.

The same guy who heaped praised on SERBA a few years ago, throwing Choivo Capital's caution to the wind.

Now, he suggests that HARTA's 2 BILLION EARNINGS PER QUARTER should last for another 1 or 2 years! Yet, his intrinsic value is only 10B USD or RM40billion or RM12.34 by 2025?

Sslee

10,770 posts

Posted by Sslee > 2021-08-13 08:41 | Report Abuse

Haha,
Only stockraider feel very lucky that at the last minute someone bought his 1 million q sell Insas-WB for half a cent and thus save him from RM 5,000 losses.

Bgt 9963

7,445 posts

Posted by Bgt 9963 > 2021-08-13 08:50 |

Post removed.Why?

Sslee

10,770 posts

Posted by Sslee > 2021-08-13 09:44 | Report Abuse

I can only say the Board of Insas is too conservative and prudent almost to a fault.

Or maybe they find out better ROI if invest in hartalega rather than running a glove business.

Posted by Philip ( buy what you understand) > 2021-08-13 10:39 | Report Abuse

Look at it this way, precovid
FOB 100 gloves was around 2.50
In April May as choivo pointed out to me the highest was 8.50 FOB 100 gloves
Definitely the reason for the crash in July it was selling at 5.30 FOB 100 gloves.

The asp is definitely dropping, but definitely also true is the fact that the volume is increasing.

But guess who is not being embargo to sell in USA ?
Who is not under investigation by NHS? Hartalega. As their reputation increases and not bullying their customers but selling at below the market price for gloves, my estimate are for the FOB to drop to around usd 4.20 per 100 gloves for nitrile.

The asp dropped with increasing production.

As for confidence: a simple question remains, what is the delivery supply times for hartalega gloves to date? Very simple question and very simple answer. How long is the waiting times for delivery?

Proton x70 waiting times now reaching 6 months due to supply constraints.

You can easily check for hartalega how long now is the supply chain wait times. They are still very much in demand.

That is the thesis for my investment. A company with products that is in demand with months to wait for supply selling at a reasonable price to market with the highest quality approved by all medical bodies around the world.

Selling at a fair price.

>>>>>>

wkc5657 What gives you the confidence to say that 2b per quarter can last for at least another 1 year to even 2 years?

Other glove makers also increasing capacities, and overall asp are forecasted to drop over the quarters. You implying that hartalega can maintain their asp for extended time frame?
12/08/2021 12:18 PM

Posted by Philip ( buy what you understand) > 2021-08-13 10:43 | Report Abuse

If sslee is selling his warrants to you, what are you trying to sell snake oil? Your claims are full of nonsense.

Go back to your cave, they are missing their trolls there.

>>>>>>
leno Insas-WC 40 sen vs Hartalega RM 7.00

10 baggers in my hand is better than 1 bag in your bush.

U presume too much, u make up all the future revenues and profit.

Gloves is a no barrier business.
Anyone can become gloves producers in a couple of months.
All investors knew these already.
That is why gloves investors are in FEAR.
Betul tak ?

qqq3333

6,615 posts

Posted by qqq3333 > 2021-08-13 11:16 |

Post removed.Why?

qqq3333

6,615 posts

Posted by qqq3333 > 2021-08-13 11:39 | Report Abuse

Posted by leno > Aug 13, 2021 11:34 AM | Report Abuse


Sorry, cannot find any good news on gloves company.
But it's still not too late, to join Insas-WC 40 sen.
TP RM 3 Ringgit.

================

wouldn't it make more sense to join in Inari battle?

qqq3333

6,615 posts

Posted by qqq3333 > 2021-08-13 11:41 | Report Abuse

It would make more sense in Inari ...no need mother and father just the daughter will do.

stockraider

30,487 posts

Posted by stockraider > 2021-08-13 11:55 | Report Abuse

I already say so many times loh...!!

If people like mahsing with no experience in gloves manufacturing can start gloves manufacturing & become one of the major producers in msia within 6 mths....that will mean entry barrier into gloves business are very low & easy mah!

That means alot of competitions are on the way mah!

That will mean huge competition & glut coming loh!

If u plant palmoil u need to wait at least 5 years to get its fruits but gloves cincai within can start production loh!

Thus it does not look good in this commodity gloves industry mah!

stockraider

30,487 posts

Posted by stockraider > 2021-08-13 12:10 | Report Abuse

This scenario is Gloves became a value investment with negative growth loh & no longer a growth investment mah!

How do u value negative growth investment leh ?

We know how to value growth investment but negative growth investment very tricky mah!


Posted by pjseow > Aug 12, 2021 9:59 PM | Report Abuse

Stockraider, The CEO of Harta ,Margma and other glove makers projected the ASP will drop to US 30 to 35 per 1000 post pandemic for Nitrile gloves. Nobody knows when.will be post pandemic. In 2 to 3 years time, Harta capacity will.reach 63.billions per year . The projected earning will be

63 x 32.5 x 0.8 x 4.25 x 0.25 = 1.740 billions

assuming 4.25 exchange rate , 80 % utilization, average ASP of US 32.5 .

EPS = 1740/3430 = 50.7 sen

Assigning a PE of 20 , its value is rm 10.14
Assigning a PE of 25 , its value is rm 12.68

From now until post.pandemic, enjoy the high dividend yield of about 10 %.
Is it worthwhile with these numbers ?

---------------------------------
stockraider It is for sure gloves gloves margin & profit after tax margin will be falling due to over production & intense competition loh!

But....is it still ....worthwhile based current price leh ??


U see we are looking....at a negative growth stock investment scenario for gloves loh...!

How do u value a negative growth stock which is the opposite of growth stock leh ?

Quarter end 30 June 2021. NP margin: 57.96%
Quarter end 31 March 2021. NP margin: 48.92%
Quarter end 31 Dec 2020. NP margin: 47.32%
Quarter end 30 Sept 2020. NP margin: 40.84%
Quarter end 30 June 2020. NP margin: 24.03%
Quarter end 31 March 2020. NP margin: 14.87%

Sslee

10,770 posts

Posted by Sslee > 2021-08-13 12:17 | Report Abuse

Hahahaha,
I am very happy to take 30-50% profit moreover my WC are free and I was also allocated 10% extra excess application above my entitlement.

stockraider

30,487 posts

Posted by stockraider > 2021-08-13 12:22 | Report Abuse

What for u make small trading profit leh ??

Just follow Leno & think big if u hold WC mah!



Posted by Sslee > Aug 13, 2021 12:17 PM | Report Abuse

Hahahaha,
I am very happy to take 30-50% profit moreover my WC are free and I was also allocated 10% extra excess application above my entitlement.

Sslee

10,770 posts

Posted by Sslee > 2021-08-13 12:23 | Report Abuse

If only qqq3 has keep his Vitrox untill now. It will be multi bagger many time over.

Sslee

10,770 posts

Posted by Sslee > 2021-08-13 12:31 | Report Abuse

Dear leno,
My portfolio plus my trading gain is now 500K+ up compare to 1st Jan 2021.
Thank you for asking.

Stockraider, Sedikit demi sedikit lama-lama menjadi bukit

stockraider

30,487 posts

Posted by stockraider > 2021-08-13 12:32 | Report Abuse

Correctloh...this is the ultimate measurement loh!


Posted by leno > Aug 13, 2021 12:26 PM | Report Abuse

to sslee :
free or not it is arguable.

At the end,
it is how much your WHOLE portfolio worth now,
compare to 1st Jan.

stockraider

30,487 posts

Posted by stockraider > 2021-08-13 12:33 | Report Abuse

Learn lah from qqq mistakes mah!

Posted by Sslee > Aug 13, 2021 12:23 PM | Report Abuse

If only qqq3 has keep his Vitrox untill now. It will be multi bagger many time over.


Posted by Sslee > Aug 13, 2021 12:31 PM | Report Abuse

Dear leno,
My portfolio plus my trading gain is now 500K+ up compare to 1st Jan 2021.
Thank you for asking.

Stockraider, Sedikit demi sedikit lama-lama menjadi bukit

stockraider

30,487 posts

Posted by stockraider > 2021-08-13 12:36 | Report Abuse

Good Luck

Posted by Philip ( buy what you understand) > 2021-08-13 12:42 | Report Abuse

that is a commendable result lee, i myself am down a lot from serba drop, hopefully the EY report incoming will do a bit to recover my costs. you are getting much better with reading and investing and trading, congrats!

>>>>>>>>
Sslee Dear leno,
My portfolio plus my trading gain is now 500K+ up compare to 1st Jan 2021.
Thank you for asking.

Stockraider, Sedikit demi sedikit lama-lama menjadi bukit
13/08/2021 12:31 PM

stockraider

30,487 posts

Posted by stockraider > 2021-08-13 12:44 | Report Abuse

Just cut loss lah!

Do not be stubborn loh!

Posted by Philip ( buy what you understand) > Aug 13, 2021 12:42 PM | Report Abuse

that is a commendable result lee, i myself am down a lot from serba drop, hopefully the EY report incoming will do a bit to recover my costs. you are getting much better with reading and investing and trading, congrats!

>>>>>>>>
Sslee Dear leno,
My portfolio plus my trading gain is now 500K+ up compare to 1st Jan 2021.
Thank you for asking.

Stockraider, Sedikit demi sedikit lama-lama menjadi bukit
13/08/2021 12:31 PM

treasurehunt

1,587 posts

Posted by treasurehunt > 2021-08-13 12:50 | Report Abuse

God bless you!

Posted by Philip ( buy what you understand) > 2021-08-13 12:57 | Report Abuse

so how much leno porfolio performance? I am sure it is goo... wait I think leno doesn't even have an imaginary portfolio. Talk so much nonsense for what?

Bgt 9963

7,445 posts

Posted by Bgt 9963 > 2021-08-13 13:59 |

Post removed.Why?

Foker

1,406 posts

Posted by Foker > 2021-08-13 14:12 | Report Abuse

Philip is a noob

Sslee

10,770 posts

Posted by Sslee > 2021-08-13 14:27 | Report Abuse

Dear leno,
To be more accurate:
I start the year with RM 2,000,180.40 portfolio and RM 743,089.27 cash in trading account for a total of RM 2,743,269.67.

As of today after another capital injection of RM 304,000 for subscription of INSAS-PB which come with free INSAS-WC.
My portfolio as of now RM 3,494,613.16 and cash in trading account: RM 131,237.14. Total of RM 3,625,850.30

Excluding the dividend received for the year since the dividend were credited directly into my bank account.

Gain for the year: RM 578,580.63 or % gain of 578,580.63/3,047,269.67 = 18.99%

Note: About 50% is in INSAS.

Posted by ValueInvestor888 > 2021-08-13 14:29 | Report Abuse

Hartalega was buying back shares at prices as high as RM11 in April, then continued to buy back in May, before stopping at the end of June when the price fell below RM7.50. The amount of money used was not as high as that used by TG last year, but their retained earnings were not as high either anyway.

Posted by ValueInvestor888 > 2021-08-13 14:30 | Report Abuse

Harta treasury shares costs about RM9.60 per unit

Posted by ValueInvestor888 > 2021-08-13 14:35 | Report Abuse

Not only TG has forced labour issue. Harta also has in one way or another but it was not picked up by CPB only. TG being the biggest,kena hit loh. Kossan also has similar issue.

Only Supermax we have not seen any news on reimbursement of recruitment fees.



https://www.thestar.com.my/business/business-news/2020/08/10/hartalega-to-reimburse-rm40mil-in-recruitment-fees-to-migrant-workers


https://www.marketscreener.com/quote/stock/HARTALEGA-HOLDINGS-BERHAD-6500179/news/U-S-probes-two-Malaysian-glove-makers-over-forced-labour-allegations-report-35059585/

stockraider

30,487 posts

Posted by stockraider > 2021-08-13 14:40 | Report Abuse

Sslee,

Very Good Result

Keep it up

Good Luck

Posted by Sslee > Aug 13, 2021 2:27 PM | Report Abuse

Dear leno,
To be more accurate:
I start the year with RM 2,000,180.40 portfolio and RM 743,089.27 cash in trading account for a total of RM 2,743,269.67.

As of today after another capital injection of RM 304,000 for subscription of INSAS-PB which come with free INSAS-WC.
My portfolio as of now RM 3,494,613.16 and cash in trading account: RM 131,237.14. Total of RM 3,625,850.30

Excluding the dividend received for the year since the dividend were credited directly into my bank account.

Gain for the year: RM 578,580.63 or % gain of 578,580.63/3,047,269.67 = 18.99%

Note: About 50% is in INSAS.

Posted by ValueInvestor888 > 2021-08-13 14:44 | Report Abuse

2 billion in earnings per quarter should last for another 1 or 2 years, bringing earnings to around 15 billion+. at a valuation of 24 billion...

Possible to achieve RM 2 billion every quarter for next 1 or 2 years? Sounds too good to be true.

Other than the above, everything in the article sounds good.

Having said that, harta is a good value buy

Thank you for the article.

Sslee

10,770 posts

Posted by Sslee > 2021-08-13 15:14 | Report Abuse

Stockraider,
Your stock pick year 2021 result is excellent

https://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/stock_pick_2021/2021-07-30-story-h1568876480-Stock_Pick_Year_2021_30_Jul_Result.jsp


Stock Pick Year 2021 - 30 Jul Result

Name %
1 Stock Pick 2021 - curvinteo 69.90%
2 Stock Pick 2021 - Musangkingfarmer 56.41%
3 Stock Pick 2021 - stockraider 52.07%
4 Stock Pick 2021 - huikong 50.05%
5 Stock Pick 2021 - LA777 33.67%
6 Stock Pick 2021 - rajachulan 28.48%
7 Stock Pick 2021 - Joe Ng 28.47%
8 Stock Pick 2021 - aaronsia 24.80%
9 Stock Pick 2021 - Tom Tee 24.46%
10 Stock Pick 2021 - LuvLuv 23.66%

stockraider

30,487 posts

Posted by stockraider > 2021-08-13 15:26 | Report Abuse

Hopefully can finish top 10 loh!

LaoTzeAhSir

1,303 posts

Posted by LaoTzeAhSir > 2021-08-13 23:15 | Report Abuse

so many trolls enjoying getting attention from Philip's post by talking non-sense and giving self org4sm. pathetic.

Posted by CynicalCyan > 2021-08-14 21:00 | Report Abuse

Fascinating, so few intellectuals on klse.i3investor here are willing to discuss about the intrinsic value of Harta

Sslee

10,770 posts

Posted by Sslee > 2021-08-15 09:49 | Report Abuse

The intrinsic value of Hartalega is Liquid assets – total liabilities + (CF1/ (1+d)^1) + (CF2/(1+d)^2) + ----- +(CFn/(1+d)^n)
Where:
CF = Cash Flow in the Period
d = Discount rate
n = The period number. Year 1 to infinity

Bgt 9963

7,445 posts

Posted by Bgt 9963 > 2021-08-15 10:26 |

Post removed.Why?

Sslee

10,770 posts

Posted by Sslee > 2021-09-07 15:23 | Report Abuse

Glove ASP, margin likely to normalise by 1Q22, but prices will remain above pre-Covid-19 levels — Hartalega CEO

By Justin Lim | theedgemarkets.com | 2021-09-07 14:58:23
KUALA LUMPUR (Sept 7): Hartalega Holdings Bhd sees the downtrend of its glove average selling price (ASP) continuing and expects prices to normalise in the first quarter of calendar year 2022 (1Q22).

In a virtual media briefing today, Hartalega chief executive officer (CEO) Kuan Mun Leong noted that the ASP started to ease in the April to June quarter and is expected to decline by 30% every quarter going forward until 1Q22.

However, Kuan believes the floor price of gloves will not return to pre-pandemic levels, owing to changes in the cost structure.

“We believe our ASP or rather our margin will be normalised by the first quarter of the next calendar year. The ASP will then be higher, meaning it will not be lower than pre-pandemic times, because the cost structure has actually changed for us. We are experiencing additional costs from social compliance and also the material cost seen today is actually higher.

“For example, nitrile gloves' raw material [cost] is still higher than pre-pandemic levels. So, the price should not be anything below US$35 [per thousand gloves]. Otherwise, this doesn't make sense in terms of margins,” he added.

At the time of writing today, Hartalega's share price had fallen four sen or 0.58% to RM6.87, giving it a market capitalisation of RM23.55 billion.

Andre Kua

400 posts

Posted by Andre Kua > 2021-09-10 09:57 | Report Abuse

Even though Hartalega share price is overly inflated IMO, but their management is really good. Their glove output is also much higher than industry stanards owing to much better design and material usage. However, as in many MNCs, when company gets too big, snakes will start to appear. It is unfortunate that they allowed themselves to be caught up. NGC should have completed years ago and yet they just completed it now. Going forward, I wonder if they still maintain the advantage over the rest that keep narrowing year after year.

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