Maybank apparently on long term uptrend since the low in October 2020. Likely may peak in 2023 at rm10+ Careful of trading in an uptrend as may miss the boat.

tollebunsmith: rather hilarious you make so much noise when you have only a few lots.

I agree with hengsame. Why sell say at 8.50 which after 0.385 dividend is only about 8.10 which is fairly low.In an economic recovery and with Covid vaccinations in place even after the ex-date the price should be able to recover well above 8.10. You can use the dividend to buy more shares at the "corrected" low price. With more shares you will get more dividends in subsequent dividend payments. This is the famous compounding advocated by Warren Buffett. Remember, a good dividend is a sure thing against earnings growth which is less known.The DRP ie dividend reinvestment plan of mbb ensures mbb can keep on with its generous dividend payments. EPF is a big holder of mbb shares evidently happy with its generous dividend payments.

1 pbb share held is going to be split into 5 pbb shares and given the glorious term of bonus shares. Who knows, mbb may join in the fun and 1 mbb share may be split into 2 mbb shares and given the same glorious term of bonus shares. Other banks may join in the fun too.

In this forum, I appreciate in particular the valuable contributions of rr88 and TeamRocket, notably the emphasis on not to be a greater fool in this stock market jungle. No one can foresee the future but time will tell who is right.

I agree with buffet3333. If you look at the TP for pbb given by various analysts above, I would say the majority are day dreaming. HLG gave TP as 13.70 which is the lowest but realistic. The emotional component of a share price is more important and a common driver of share prices than value. It was the super high emotion that pbb traded for a long period of time at rm25 in 2018. It took a long time for the emotion to peter down. So don't keep looking at the rear mirror. Pbb is an old one trick horse now.

Basically the bottom is when the vicious forced selling and the panicked selling ends. When you run out of sellers, the price can only move up. No one will know when this will happen. Share trading is a level playing field. Note that pbb has better loan portfolio than a lot of other banks.

Just look at the huge 25% difference between the TP of 10.30 by MIDF and TP of 8.25 by AffinHwang. So which of these two analysts would you believe? I hardly see anyone posting comments on such huge differences by the so-called experts. TP refers to fair price in a year's time. Is 8.25 a fair price based on earnings and dividends? Thus it is small wonder some of these analysts are held with contempt. Similarly when one says that mbb is much cheaper than pbb or hlb does it mean those who are buying pbb or hlb are silly? Do understand that people consider criteria such as earnings and dividend growth,etc.

AhHuat on 29/4/19 advised "Sit tight and head to 25" Guess he and the folks he conned are still sitting tight.

tipumakan: You may notice that prices have been on a downtrend since Sept 2018 (a high of 10.14) to Feb 2019 (price in region of 9.50)to May 2019 (region of 9.00) to present day price in region of 8.50. If you don't consider dividend ex-dates and consider just price action, evidently price have been on a downtrend of 13 months since Sept 2018. Don't you think for example that in Sept 2018 that you somehow sense with the theme of trade wars and consequential slowdown in world economy that maybank may fall in tandem with the deteriorating sentiments that you should sell all your maybank shares and hopefully to buy back at a later date? Simply put sell in region of 10 bucks and now buy back at 8.50 bucks. How glorious it would be? Imagine you are those funds like epf etc thinking this way, don't you agree they are not behaving weirdly? Of course there is the fear of missing the boat if you sell too early. You just have to make your own judgement. So if you dare sell now and hope to buy back say many months from now when it may fall to region of 8.25, or 8.00 or 7.75 or 7.50 or maybe the opposite direction? Such funds may be just making a bet or maybe rotating into other stocks or whatever other purposes. Do note the funds were not just selling, they were also buying.

If one were to note idunwork's remark that price falling because the high price (above rm2.00?) is not justified and Tipster's reckoning that "funds" are selling and that one should follow them in abandoning ship, and that the ship may sink to level of rm1.60 is interesting as the level of sinking appears similar to that of public bank share price sinking from rm25 to about rm19 i.e. proportionally from the peak price. So let us watch how the price unfolds.

RainT is right. We should stop the futile "epf is buying or epf is selling". Just look at the TP provided by macquarie grp, hlg, affinhwang, aminvest and kenanga. They range from rm19.90 to rm25.20, a difference of 26%. Isn't this huge difference in TP baffling? So we should put "epf is buying/selling and TP of 19.90 and TP of 25.20" in the same category. If these folks have such diverse or poles apart opinions what would you expect from simple folks like most of us? To have an edge in trading, we need to be discerning in information we see. For example, look at what StockStalker said about valuation of sgx banking stocks across the causeway. Pbb is a stock with a high percentage of foreign shareholders and obviously they compare pbb with their country's banking stocks. If you look at sgx bank stocks you will note pbb has fallen in tandem with sgx bank stocks. SGX bank stocks fall as folks see cloudy days ahead for the world economy. WarChest warned of pbb's three quarters of earnings contraction. What would the results for the next qtr be like for pbb? November there will be earnings reports for banks in the sgx and by comparison for pbb?StockStalker said a reasonable price for pbb is rm14. Perhaps he had based this on the dividend yields of sgx banks. This implies that based on the dividends paid by pbb, that the current price of pbb is unreasonably high relative to sgx banks like dbs, ocbc and uob. Months ago someone wrote that he was happy to buy pbb at his dream price of rm23. I wrote that that may be his dream price but there were also those who had bought earlier at their dream price of rm25. I was merely hoping that folks don't buy based on dreams as dreams can turn into nightmares. Buy based on business sense as Warren Buffet had advised as that is the right approach, not on dreams.

My observation of each day's trade over many weeks is that there are too many impatient buyers and who appear to be novices as the price usually surge early morning are caused by these impatient buyers. But crumpled by late afternoon when we run out of such impatient novices. To make good money in stocks like maybank, you need to be very, very patient. Buy some when price falls in late afternoon. Then sell to the impatient novices in early morning the next day. It is a game worth considering. However if you don't wish to swing trade, then wait till the long term trend changes. Currently the trend is down, down, down. If you consider Maybank's dividend yield, the price should not go down. However, a stock's price is more sentiment driven than value driven as most people are emotionally driven. When a stock's price goes downwards, folks try to sell before others sell. And if price drops like a waterfall, folks get panic stricken and there is a rush for the exit ie exiting the stock. The emotion of fear is worse than the emotion of greed. Let us not be impatient and rush to buy just because the price had looked attractive today. Who knows, the price may get even more attractive the next few days. There is no rush to buy but just hang on to your money and buy later when buyers had disappeared. It is a risk of missing the boat, but maybe not that bad as you won't lose in a price recovery. The great investor George Soros advised that if you are sure the price is clearly moving up, then buy and pyramid up. No doubt if you are a bit late in buying near the low, at least you are on the winning bet when price is clearly moving upwards. Currently there are too many negative news on stocks like maybank, and my guess is unless positive news emerge, it may be prudent to wait it out for a good low to buy. It is just my opinion, take it or leave it.

SHQuah: PBB or MBB? An interesting question. To decide you need to guess the net earnings and dividends of each of these banks say over the next five years. At current prices, on recent past results, pbb pays 3% dy whilst mbb pays 6% dy. This means for pbb you need to get an annual earnings growth of 3% so hopefully there will be a corresponding price rise of 3% ie a capital gain of 3% so you get a total investment return of 6% ie similar to mbb's 6% return and assuming mbb has no earnings growth. You then tabulate your computations for each of these banks year by year for a period of five years. This is a simplistic way to guide you along for a start and you can refine and revise your estimates upon quarterly reports from these banks. A useful source of information to guide you in your estimates are the reports from various analysts as they too revise their analysis subject to varying business conditions. Based on your estimates, you may decide say to place an equal bet on each of these banks or maybe a 70% bet on one bank and 30% on the other. No one can see the future, so it is a level playing field.

SHQuah: It is obvious pbb price was nudged up to a non-sustainable high price of 25 or put it another way the price had gone up too high too fast. It sort of reached a ceiling and stuck there. If it cannot rise further, the likelihood is it may fall. When enough people form this view, then keen sellers would outnumber keen buyers and the price is said to correct downwards to a more reasonable level. Price at anytime is a perceived price by market participants ie by crowd psychology. You need personal judgement as to whether it is high and may fall or low and may rise. To judge, should compare its price with other financial stocks.

Look at analysts TP of 21/2/19. Ranges from 23.50 to 27.15. So which of the anaylsts' TP would one consider as misleading?

Those who sold at rm23 and below will cry? Currently trading at rm22.44, so who is crying? This bank has lost its magic.

Bought at 23.4 and dream? Not long ago many bought at super high 25 and perhaps dream like you? I won't dream at such lofty prices. May fall to 21 which is a more down to earth or fairer price, then maybe can dream a bit.

Mr KYY said his target price for dayang of rm3 is "easily achievable". If you believe him you can sell your other stocks, properties, etc and buy dayang and join him in laughing all the way to the bank. Investing can be this certain and this easy. Wonder then what is wrong with the many analysts?

At about 11am there were simultaneous steep falls in maybank, public bank, hong leong bank, ammb bank .... but not cimb bank which already had steep fall on Monday 11/3/19. So obviously this is a planned attack. Such a simultaneous attack had happened a few years ago and later prices recovered. So stay calm. Think hard before selling as if there is a sharp price recovery you can be left behind.

laychee is quite right on kyy's Golden Rule. Only the market can be bigger than him and when the market goes against him, he won't be able to carry the weight and get crushed.

Why unhappy about kenanga? What about public bank, midf and hlg? They all have TP ranging from 0.91 to 1.30. They have their reasons. It is a matter of whether followers of KYY outnumber followers of these brokerages and price shall move accordingly.

Probably his selling is related to his Golden Rule?

I hope Mr Koon could enlighten us as to why he had sold so heavily as he said he wanted to help folks make money. So let's see how he can help us with his selling.

Whether price is high or low is up to individual's opinion. Just look at TP 1.50 of KENANGA and TP 1.91 of HLG. Don't you agree it is their analyst's opinions? To KENANGA 1.50 is fair price but to HLG 1.91 is fair price. Who is right? Both are right of course otherwise why did their company print their write-up.

People sell or buy for various reasons, so nothing to be upset about a massive throw down. If more people throw down such that price falls to 8.00 so much the better. Then you sell your other shares and buy maybank shares super cheap with super dividend yield. Then wait and the price will recover. This simple.

KYY posted a blog on 10 Dec 2018 which refers to Jak's latest quarter result. He worked out the Debt per Share as RM2.31. It probably scared the daylight out of him. He said Jak can only report losses in the next few years. He asked: 'Why should you buy when the company cannot report any profit?' He probably concluded that what he had chased all the time had turned out to be 'Just a pie in the sky'. So buyers beware!

kyy implied forced sell at rm1 is obviously luckier than forced sell at 50 sen and who knows maybe forced sell at 50 sen may be a blessing in disguise if later can buy back at a much lower price?

Jaks presently is suffering death by a thousand cuts but not yet dead. Be patient and wait for it to be nearly dead and about to revive then only buy.

Fair Value is in whose eyes. To some it is rm1 to others it is rm1.1. To me it would be Good Value at rm0.90. It is Bad Value at current rm1.23.

JJChan: ask yourself what was YTL doing before they ventured into IPP?

On the question of whether LAD is high or low, just let the court determine and let's not moon over it.

KYY is merely expressing his views. No one has to swallow them hook, line and sinker as though they are perfect. His views are just food for thought. When he said Hengyuan is wonderful, I was thinking, how can it be wonderful when Hengyuan is at the mercy of crude oil price fluctuation and their products are sold at controlled prices. To Warren Buffett this is a business with a very narrow moat and should be avoided for investors. So do I blame him when price of Hengyuan crashed? Of course no. It is just his opinion and he had honestly said you don't have to buy or sell if your views differ. In life, don't expect people to put food into your mouth. Do your own research and thinking. In fact why don't you ask KYY NICELY on what basis he thinks Jaks should be $1.40 in 18 months time? What earnings per share he envisaged in 18 months time. What sort of dividend per share to be expected to support a price of $1.40? What happens if the directors choose to pay miserable dividends?

True, compare apples with apples, not with oranges. Different countries have different mentalities which Mudajaya had sadly failed to assess in their risk management. Let's forget the India bottomless pit that Mudajaya had fallen into. It is an accident which places Mudajaya under ICU. Let's just look forward to a happy hunting ground in Vietnam. Cheers!

I have no idea about Mudajaya's power plant project in India nor any power plant projects in Vietnam however for readers interest, I was involved in a power plant project in Terengganu in early 1980s. The civil and structural and related works which had a large building housing the three turbines costs about RM900m in those days. Interestingly the three turbines cost about RM600m i.e. two-thirds the project cost. Nothing spectacular about the construction of the power station, except that it is important to have a sound foundation that can safely carry the vibratory load from the turbines. For your information the engineer who designed the turbo-generator foundation for the turbines worked in conjunction with a professor in the University of Singapore. Later this engineer were to design the foundations for our Petronas Twin Towers in a very difficult subsoil condition. The turbines were from France. The project was completed on time and within budget. For your interest Mudajaya at that time was the earthworks contractor for this project and had a young graduate engineer from an Indian University by the name of Krisnan Tan.

It would certainly be an advantage to have Mr Koon as a director of Jaks.

I too am curious to know what ails Mudajaya as my last contact with the company was way back in 1985 on a power station project where Mudajaya was the contractor for earthworks. It is now 33 years past and I presume some of the directors could have changed. My experience with contractors is that if their pricing is wrong or management is poor, they would likely suffer liquidated and ascertained damages simply with incorrect pricing, they would struggle to get subcontractors to do the job at the low price. The have to keep replacing subcontractors and that cause delays and subsequently suffer L&D. I reckon we need to know how competent Jaks is in their management and hence future performance.

Date 29 Aug 2018: TP by Public Bank as 1.10 and by Affin Hwang as 1.90. See the big difference? Normally use the world famous Gordon formula to calculate the TP. If I were their maths teacher, I'd send one of them to the headmaster for caning for doing his maths like a drunk.

Buying Jaks now is buying for future revenue when the power station goes onstream. If you don't have the stomach to wait it out, then don't invest. Look for other stocks. Supposedly you buy now at say RM1 and in say two years time the price goes to RM2. Your money doubles in two years. Then you'll be singing a different song. The trick is to collect when the price is down. Buying at RM1 definitely is more glorious than buying at RM1.4. I hope you folks could tell as many sad stories as possible so perhaps I could collect at 50 sen. Cheers!

pbb treasury shares sold on 19th and 20th which The_Reds said represent 60% of its treasury shares and when will it stop being sold? A reason for selling might be taking profits (and before others sell in a big way) and maybe buy back later at much lower prices. Investors should question the so-called Target Prices which range from about RM24 to RM27. This big difference shows just as beauty is in the eye of the beholder, so is Target Prices!

China is shifting away from cheaper coal-fired power stations as it is no longer a poor country but Vietnam is still poor and presently has to tolerate the detrimental health effects from coal-fired power stations. When Vietnam gets less poor then it may start to opt out of building such power stations. There are categories of coal, from the cheaper, low quality ones to the more expensive, higher quality ones used by advanced countries. I wonder whether Vietnam power stations would use the cheaper ones so more cost effective. It would mean the profitability for the companies running the power stations. As newbie8080 had said, there are many variables that impact earnings. What do we know of Viet government policies over time? Don't assume other countries' business and political environment is similar to that here. There need to be a comprehensive risks assessment I presume.

Perhaps those in the know may be able to estimate future earnings when the power station goes on stream and the potential dividend payout.

I wonder whether Mr Koon Y Y can lead investors to convince the management of JAKS to institute a dividend payment policy in line with that of Public Bank for example so investors can be more assured of a floor for the price of the stock. Without fair dividend payments, the price for the stock may seem like "a pie in the sky" or the dangling of a carrot in front of a donkey. Then buying the stock may seem to be following "the greater fool theory" hoping someone will buy from you at a higher price and which may be the reason some investors are so hung up by the erratic price movement and venting their frustrations sometimes in unrefined language.

Price target by which date?

I reckon it will be more helpful if the column heading "price difference" be replaced by "Percentage price rise/fall" instead.