PADINI - Misunderstanding of Shrinking Margin Due to Getting Tough Competition? Or A Better Old Strategy to Use to Booth Revenue?

At current share price at RM 1.30,

PE Ratio using Magic Formula = 4.88

PE Ratio using Magic Formula
8.71 15.81 5.14 3.27

Inventories Over Revenue - PASS
21.83% 13.87% 15.15% 15.62%

Net Receiveable Over Revenue (%) - PASS
7.27% 6.51% 8.37% 10.53%

Dividend Payout Ratio - Good
43.45% 71.17% 54.53% 51.51%

Capex Requirement (%) per dollar net earning - PASS
12.55% 12.35% 13.07% 16.72%


Graham Net Nets Current Asset Value (NCAV) - GOOD
-0.3429 -0.2896 0.7787 0.8903

Graham Net Nets Working Capital (NNWC) - GOOD
-0.5704 -0.4125 0.6235 0.7108

Retained Earning contribute to Total Equity (%) - GOOD
52.49% 54.71% 57.25% 59.79%


Share Capital Contribute To Total Equity (%) - GOOD
47.51% 45.29% 42.75% 40.21%


Current Asset to Total Asset IDEAL: GOOD
60.62% 65.24% 70.07% 72.43%

Debt To Equity Ratio - EXCELLENT
1.00 1.00 0.15 0.07

Asset Turn Over - EXCELLENT
0.9690 1.0306 1.0771 1.0671

Receivable Turn Ratio (days) - PASS
27 24 26 34

Inventories Turn Over (times per year)- PASS
3.30 4.54 5.49 4.87

Free Cash Flow (FCF) - PASS
6,154,044 26,927,959 11,226,000 12,472,000

Cash return on Invested Capital (CROIC): Excellent
8.45% 45.91% 17.88% 18.74%

Free Cash Flow (FCF) to short term debt - PASS
0.49 2.01 0.67 1.76

DUPONT's ROE (%) - PASS
12.42% 10.01% 12.33% 12.28%

Return of Asset (%) - PASS
10.88% 8.81% 10.68% 11.43%

Return of Invested Capital (ROIC) (%) - PASS
18.84% 19.78% 24.10% 24.09%

Earning Yield (Magic Formula) (%) - PASS
11.49% 6.32% 19.47% 30.57%

Current Ratio- PASS
6.04 6.40 5.91 14.30

Book Value/ NTA per share
1.11 1.12 1.19 1.26

Cash and Cash Equivalent at the end of period
33,751,375 54,711,353 59,933,000 56,352,000

Total Asset
126,056,688 131,667,314 141,681,000 140,230,000

Total Liability
110,468,959 115,790,129 18,924,000 9,697,000

Total Equity
110,468,959 115,877,185 122,757,000 130,533,000

PARAMETERS 12/31/11 12/31/12 12/31/13 12/31/14

Revenue RM
122,150,080 132,803,282 147,208,000 150,419,000

Net Operating Profit After Tax (NOPAT)
13,719,930 11,600,226 15,136,000 16,032,000

Earning Per Share (EPS)
RM 0.1381 0.1124 0.1467 0.1553

Dividen Per Share (RM)
0.0600 0.0800 0.080 0.080

Outstanding Shares
99,322,740 103,200,000 103,200,000 103,200,000

Share Price 31 December
0.69 0.72 1.19 1.03

Market Capitalization
68,532,691 74,304,000 122,808,000 106,296,000

Hope to learn more from both of u..there are simply too many valuation mmethods for one to master all.

Cheong, i do not know n too lazy to learn how to write good blog actually..all my spread sheets are with figures only.

Hard to come by excellent company like coastal.

This is one of my favorite stock for Stock Pick Challenge 2015, i choose because it's a turning around business.

However, having read through the proposal, My personal consideration:

(1) it is a 13 years into "future", and future comes with very expensive price. RM 400 million worth of shares.
(2) the "health asset injection" but...i did not see any asset injection at all, perhaps i missed it.

Buy into future, is like buy in a hope. Of course i hope the dream will come true.

As for now, i better be down to earth.. happy investing!

Price up = value suppressed

Price drop = value surfaced

PE revisit:
@ current 0.78, the share is traded at merely 7.15 times of FY 13's earning

Return of Invested Capital (ROIC) (%)
14.38% 22.09% 21.70% 9.46% 9.06% 11.38% 10.33%

Receivable Turn Ratio (days)
81 45 47 60 65 59 78

Cash return on Invested Capital (CROIC):
-11.40% 10.07% 14.96% -1.92% -1.12% 3.83% 15.53% (achieved at least 13%)

Graham Net Nets Current Asset Value (NCAV)
0.5926 0.3542 0.3946 0.3925 0.3819 0.3549 0.3488

Retained Earning contribute to Total Equity (%)
37.82% 54.56% 60.96% 49.84% 52.58% 54.62% 54.17%

Share Capital Contribute To Total Equity (%)
62.17% 45.56% 39.10% 29.10% 27.51% 33.89% 39.43%


Current Asset to Total Asset
79.28% 83.54% 78.19% 73.00% 72.31% 70.33% 65.83%

Free Cash Flow (FCF)
-27,069,269 28,023,812 35,071,042 -5,887,061 -4,249,397 18,869,174 82,113,456 (2 negatives were due to acquisition of company oversea)

Debt To Equity Ratio
0.90 1.05 0.68 0.65 0.77 0.85 0.62

Current Ratio
2.21 1.96 2.32 3.08 2.30 2.09 2.36

Asset Turn Over
1.1272 1.4892 1.0041 0.7357 0.7770 0.9811 0.8284

Earning Yield (Magic Formula) (%)
21.69% 29.62% 18.96% 12.62% 14.50% 15.76% 13.94%

PE Ratio using Magic Formula
4.61 3.38 5.27 7.92 6.89 6.35 7.17 (based on current 0.75)

Total Asset
277,971,086 409,106,984 390,774,799 522,053,749 596,572,771 699,222,388 690,465,006

Total Liability
131,497,580 209,221,573 157,883,406 204,785,929 259,342,574 322,203,194 264,235,901

Total Equity
146,473,506 199,885,411 232,891,393 317,267,820 337,230,197 377,019,194 426,229,105

Book Value/ NTA per share
0.98 0.53 0.62 0.71 0.75 0.79 0.78

PARAMETERS
02/28/04 02/28/05 02/28/06 02/28/07 02/28/08 02/28/09 02/28/10 02/28/11 02/28/12 02/28/13 02/28/14

Revenue RM
313,322,452 511,595,330 401,578,364 335,778,998 434,603,976 635,663,077 575,609,939

Net Operating Profit After Tax (NOPAT)
34,142,118 61,459,473 50,870,980 28,980,431 34,223,360 56,062,613 54,636,864

Share Price 31 December
0.76 0.36 0.78 0.62 0.51 0.720 0.905 (current 0.75)

PANTECH - VALUE Resurfaced!

Thank you

PE revisit: (include recent bonus issue) at current 1.91, the PE has reached 31 x FY 14's earning.

PE revisit: (include recent bonus issue) @ 0.335 is already at 12.2 x FY 14's earning.

I must give a big thumb up to the management team of INARI Amertron. Good Job!

Based on 2Q FY 15 result, due to huge amount of net cash from both operation (RM 88,325,000) and gross cash from warrant conversion (RM39,631,000); Total RM128 million cash;

=>Tremendous Improve of Financial leverage

Debt to Equity (from 0.92 to 0.65)

Current Ratio (from 2.07 to 2.44)

Cash (from RM 75 million to RM 142 million)

Hi mr kcchongnz, u have picked fibon in your 2nd portfolio in 2013. However, i did some analysis and found that the company is deteriorating since 5 years ago till now except for zero debt and have 20 million cash. Do u mind to share the reason u picked this fibon? Thank you

Inari-OR last trading day 29 Jan 15 @ 2.15 per rights

Hi mr tan,
1. pls help sell 975 units of inari OR
2. Fiamma finanl dividend of 6 sen per share

Thank u

Mr tan, yes, thanks

Mr Tan, For Inari holders, suggest the OR at 1:8 entitlement to be sold at listing price of 2.32 (OR trading day) and add back the cash to cash holding. thanks

high PE is not necessary a bad thing as shareholders has "high" expectation / anticipation on the company. Thus, willing to pay high valuation price..

This opposite to some counters with very very low PE but not many are interested.

Happy investing!

PARAMETERS
06/30/11 06/30/12 06/30/13 06/30/14

Outstanding Shares
167,293,560 328,425,138 375,324,000 472,816,000

Up to 16 Jan 2015, outstanding shares = 629,606,654 (include latest WA conversion)

After OR in FEB, total = 708,307,486

Assuming able to reach RM 900 million sales with average historical 13.5% net margin, net profit will be at the region of 121.5 million

Pre-rights non-diluted (not include WA, MI) EPS likely at 19 sen

Post-rights non-diluted (not include WA & WB that not exercise, MI etc) EPS likely at 17 sen

About 10.5% different only
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PER is current traded at 14 x FY 14's earning

If include the Pre-rights, inari is now traded at 17 x

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Gtronic is relatively "stable growth company" at RM 1.4 billion market cap
Inari is relatively "aggressive" company at RM 1.8 billion market cap

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Use Gtronic as reference, i think up side still have about 30% based on current financial.

PE revisit: (ex-bonus issue)

@ current 1.75, PE (magic formula) is already at 27.2 times of 6/2014's earning.

Excluding recent bonus issue

@ FY 14's EPS & 1.23 per share

PE (magic formula): 6.16

Scenario 1:

Market Value (Share Price) Generation per $ EPS Retained: 5 years Average 2.05

Share price POSSIBILITY traded at 1.61 per share.

Effect of recent bonus issue:75,102,542 new shares

@ FY 14's EPS & 1.23 per share

PE (magic formula): 7.8 times @ market cap of RM 369,502,507

Justification of high current liability:

Debt To Equity Ratio
0.76 0.48 0.47 0.26 0.28 0.39 0.41 0.36 0.56 1.06

----------------------------------------------------------------------
Current Liability (including dividend,trade payable etc)- Increasing 38,595,000 25,387,000 31,363,000 20,106,000 21,584,000 42,213,000 53,509,000 45,055,000 116,759,000 251,177,000

Non-Current Liability - Decreasing
37,224,000 26,016,000 21,507,000 12,551,000 16,888,000 15,253,000 13,415,000 21,564,000 14,040,000 10,035,000


Revenue RM - Growing
108,505,000 94,376,000 93,777,000 89,832,000 106,933,000 125,069,000 165,037,000 152,249,000 276,810,000 506,299,000

Net Operating Profit After Tax (NOPAT)- Growing
10,104,000 7,469,000 8,227,000 8,972,000 11,208,000 19,866,000 24,775,000 19,334,000 25,558,000 36,208,000

Inventories Turn Over (times per year)- Increasing
3.78 3.05 2.00 1.77 2.55 2.82 3.22 2.67 5.47 11.95

Free Cash Flow (FCF)- Growing (except 3 negative due to higher investing and financing activity)
7,615,000 16,962,000 -7,356,000 6,738,000 -11,430,000 36,522,000 2,853,000 -2,560,000 60,416,000 116,257,000

Cash and Cash Equivalent at the end of period - STRONG CASH HOLDING 13,555,000 18,229,000 18,656,000 20,821,000 26,688,000 62,206,000 59,345,000 54,896,000 117,835,000 209,880,000


Book Value/ NTA per share
0.57 0.62 0.50 0.55 0.60 0.66 0.73 0.81 1.03 1.09

Free Cash Flow (FCF) to Revenue - PASS
7.02% 17.97% -7.84% 7.50% -10.69% 29.20% 1.73% -1.68% 21.83% 22.96%

Revenue Over Capex - PASS
333.86 50.31 81.90 56.75 47.38 124.94 23.01 22.11 55.23 832.73

Net Income Over CAPEX - PASS
31.09 3.98 7.19 5.67 4.97 19.85 3.45 2.81 5.10 59.55

Market Value (Share Price) Generation per $ EPS Retained 13.67 5.45 3.84 2.81 2.13 2.72 2.77 1.83 1.46 1.46

Graham Net Nets Current Asset Value (NCAV)
0.1159 0.1550 0.1549 0.2191 0.2525 0.3037 0.3584 0.3840 0.4813 0.5670

Graham Net Nets Working Capital (NNWC)
-0.0344 0.0148 0.0312 0.1225 0.1429 0.1920 0.1932 0.2214 0.2977 0.3256

Retained Earning contribute to Total Equity (%) - PASS
-13.94% -5.74% 8.35% 7.12% 5.84% 14.86% 30.32% 33.10% 51.74% 57.69%

Share Capital Contribute To Total Equity (%)- PASS
79.77% 73.95% 69.76% 64.16% 71.00% 76.03% 68.58% 61.45% 48.27% 45.57%

Current Asset to Total Asset IDEAL - PASS
54.73% 49.32% 52.72% 52.51% 54.78% 61.23% 63.88% 61.27% 65.69% 76.51%

Current Ratio
2.48 3.08 2.80 4.08 4.42 2.98 2.76 3.40 2.05 1.55 - PASS

Asset Turn Over
0.6195 0.5657 0.5771 0.5569 0.6477 0.6589 0.7557 0.6329 0.9015 1.1604 - Fantastic

Receivable Turn Ratio (days)
186 161 102 107 113 100 77 106 83 79 - PASS

Free Cash Flow (FCF)- PASS
7,615,000 16,962,000 -7,356,000 6,738,000 -11,430,000 36,522,000 2,853,000 -2,560,000 60,416,000 116,257,000

Cash return on Invested Capital (CROIC)- PASS
7.64% 19.68% -7.48% 7.39% -11.25% 43.61% 2.79% -1.97% 52.76% 360.06%

DUPONT's ROE (%)
10.17% 6.97% 7.24% 7.27% 8.27% 13.41% 15.08% 10.55% 10.95% 14.65% - PASS with special note: financial leverage increased due to higher total liability accompanied with good FCF and profit

Return of Invested Capital (ROIC) (%)
10.14% 8.67% 8.37% 9.84% 11.03% 23.72% 24.26% 14.87% 22.32% 112.14% - Superb

Earning Yield (Magic Formula) (%)
7.84% 7.79% 8.10% 11.61% 13.23% 14.22% 12.27% 12.69% 17.66% 17.06% - PASS

PE Ratio using Magic Formula
12.75 12.84 12.35 8.61 7.56 7.03 8.15 7.88 5.66 5.86 - PASS

PARAMETERS
01/31/03 01/31/04 01/31/05 01/31/06 01/31/07 01/31/08 01/31/09 01/31/10 01/31/11 01/31/12 01/31/13 01/31/14

Revenue RM
108,505,000 94,376,000 93,777,000 89,832,000 106,933,000 125,069,000 165,037,000 152,249,000 276,810,000 506,299,000

Operating Profit Before Tax (NOPBT)
14,803,000 10,045,000 10,836,000 13,051,000 14,618,000 26,095,000 32,434,000 26,192,000 35,576,000 51,135,000

Net Operating Profit After Tax (NOPAT)
10,104,000 7,469,000 8,227,000 8,972,000 11,208,000 19,866,000 24,775,000 19,334,000 25,558,000 36,208,000

Earning Per Share (EPS) RM
0.0600 0.0500 0.0360 0.0390 0.0500 0.0880 0.1100 0.0860 0.1130 0.1610

Dividen Per Share (RM)
0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.03500 0.04000 0.1 0.1 0.0650 0.0750

Outstanding Shares
172,918,000 172,918,000 225,219,000 225,219,000 225,219,000 225,219,000 225,302,000 225,302,000 225,303,000 225,306,000

Share Price
0.82 0.60 0.56 0.52 0.50 0.88 1.20 0.95 0.92 1.16

Total Asset
175,138,000 158,539,000 166,449,000 156,149,000 174,057,000 205,582,000 231,185,000 249,942,000 364,196,000 508,407,000


Fixed Asset (P,P,E)
57,992,000 57,514,000 56,337,000 50,392,000 49,503,000 49,665,000 56,064,000 62,401,000 95,281,000 92,335,000

Total Non Current
79,280,000 80,341,000 78,701,000 74,154,000 78,709,000 79,713,000 83,506,000 96,800,000 124,957,000 119,445,000


Total Current Asset
95,858,000 78,198,000 87,748,000 81,995,000 95,348,000 125,869,000 147,679,000 153,142,000 239,239,000 388,962,000

Total Liability
75,819,000 51,403,000 52,870,000 32,657,000 38,472,000 57,466,000 66,924,000 66,619,000 130,799,000 261,212,000

Non-Current Liability
37,224,000 26,016,000 21,507,000 12,551,000 16,888,000 15,253,000 13,415,000 21,564,000 14,040,000 10,035,000

Current Liability (including dividend,trade payable etc)
38,595,000 25,387,000 31,363,000 20,106,000 21,584,000 42,213,000 53,509,000 45,055,000 116,759,000 251,177,000


Retained Earning
-13,845,000 -6,151,000 9,479,000 8,796,000 7,924,000 22,004,000 49,797,000 60,683,000 120,762,000 142,607,000

Total Equity
99,319,000 107,136,000 113,579,000 123,492,000 135,585,000 148,116,000 164,261,000 183,323,000 233,397,000 247,195,000

Net Cash from Operating Activity
7,940,000 18,838,000 -6,211,000 8,321,000 -9,173,000 37,523,000 10,026,000 4,326,000 65,428,000 116,865,000

Cash and Cash Equivalent at the end of period
13,555,000 18,229,000 18,656,000 20,821,000 26,688,000 62,206,000 59,345,000 54,896,000 117,835,000 209,880,000

GKENT - Massive Expansion Accompanied with Excellent Result!

suggest to verify above calculation

Total 5 days volume @ 18,696,100 shares
Total 5 days Amount transacted RM 54,453,885

54453885/18696100 = 2.91

includes:
1) 5 days average price x volume = 2.91
2) free warrant 250 (125x2.00)
3) rights share 187.5 (125x1.50)
4) 1125 (every 1000 shares add 125 rights share entitled)

[2910+ (250-187.5)]/1125 = 2.6422

Icon8888, is this a recent phenomena?

A special caution note that just noticed from recent announcement on expansion plan, it indicated the total cash balance in the bank.. Based on my record,

Cash and Cash Equivalent at the end of period
21,302,176 2,592,561 -1,810,000 14,303,000 25,453,000 32,567,000 (31/5/2014)

It kind of match the total cash up to 31 Dec 2014 as indicated after adding up the total cash from warrant conversion.

That also mean that the net cash change after include operation, investing and financing may have not change much during these period.

An assumption is therefore made that the Q report should be reasonable instead of big profit or big loss.

反向+成长+时间