Congrats for those still holding :-)

Am i loosing patience? hmmm...interesting to know that :-)

rimrim, dont have any news

Stock market is control by human fear...we all have witness the last two "correction" in past few months...whatever KLCI achieve in months or years, can "literally collapse" within few days...
爬上升旗山要4 小时，滚下来应该30 分钟。。but most of the times, many just "disappeared" on the way roll down..

If you are as "timid" as me, perhaps u should put things into a good thoughts...happy investing..

lloydlim, 每个人一生都有几次赚大钱的机会， 而赚大钱的机会永远都在崩盘之后。。低买高卖。。只要逮到一次机会就够。以其现在冒大险， 赚小钱； 不如套现为王，等机会，冒小险，赚大钱。。 加上崩盘到复盘时间越来越短（除非大萧条），不须紧张，慢慢部局。

If george soros "看空“， Warren Buffett says stock price is "not cheap", China slower and slower economy and shadow banking problem plus big portion of trust fund to due this year (china lehman brother's version), US tapering "no matter how", currency crisis spreading of emerging market etc...

Latest, FOMC members "started" the topic of increasing the current low interest rate in US and with no change of tapering plan AT ALL.....things are getting interesting..Whoever people or . organization with lots lots lots of bank loan better be careful...

I'm not sifu, Monica. But is always important for somebody to offer caution advice...choice is still with the investor him/herself..happy investing

Sean, god know

while hoping the best, let prepare to the worst... when winning : loosing is at 90:10, we rush in, when wining : loosing at 50:50, we gamble; but when winning : loosing at 10:90, we leave our fate to god......happy investing :-)

听听老人言。。。。。

-崩盤雖然劇烈 卻總是悄然來到-


崩盤走勢，似乎是股市的難免，此一憂慮，近來又再度浮現。然而崩盤的早期警告，總一再被忽略，認為這只是暫時的回檔。逐漸地，投資人對此一不可避免的後果，竟遭麻痺。無數次，他們忘記了歷史的教訓。直到最終，一場震撼讓人猝不及防。

根據MarketWatch分析報導指出，金融歷史學家Niall Ferguson曾說：崩盤前，世界似乎一切如常，如此平靜無波。然而當崩盤終於來到--無可避免地將會來到--每個人似乎都大感意外。此時我們的大腦卻不斷訴說，現在應非崩盤之時。


此時，生活依舊平靜，投資人陷入了催眠，變得日益脆弱，直到諸如雷曼銀行倒閉般驚人消息，一舉打翻空虛的平衡。而後，Ferguson說，「崩盤突然加速，宛如一輛跑車，也像暗夜的竊賊。」攻擊衝來，讓投資人措手不及。

一直，投資人玩著換手的遊戲，興奮地認為，在無可避免的崩盤來到前，當可贏得多一點的獲利。深信自己知道何時，何處，該如何出場。而後暗夜的竊賊卻突然出擊，讓人大感意外。即使此刻，在不願接受的情況下，投資人仍告訴自己， 這只是熱絡多頭市場中，另一次的回檔整理。直到突然間，這不只是一輛加速的跑車，而是一部重型卡車，轟隆而來。

樂觀與憂慮均存在於投資人的內心，初期的警告則轟嗚於外界。然而投資人的大腦卻總是摒棄新的訊息，選擇既有的成見，個人的傾向與意識形態。所以，就在2008年全球銀行受到重創之前，美國財政部長--即前高盛銀行執行長--告訴Fortune雜誌，經濟正處於他職業生涯中所見到的最佳狀態。其實不然，只是他的信念不容許他接納事實。

如何預測崩盤走勢？問題就在自己的腦海，自己的基因，自己的心態。投資人總難免慣性，自己摸索，玩著自己的換手遊戲。決定進出場策略，根據的是自己的承受風險能力，自己的判斷，自己的信念，傾向，意識形態，而非數據。

投資人會看到新的警告，諸如索羅斯看空S&P 500，並加碼至13億美元。投資人可能會聽到各分析師的看法。然而依舊採取平常的做法，這做法不是根據警告，事實，證據，或分析師的預測。投資人只一味根據大腦深處的意念，做出自己的決策。

當那部重型卡車突然切入高速檔，快速加速，並終於讓所有人大感訝異，一切都將無能為力，因為投資人永遠聽不到卡車衝來的聲音，直到為時已晚。1929年，儘管警告四起，卻少有人接受。2000年，投資人沒有聽見，2008年亦復如此，2014年仍將重演，那重型卡車將再度讓所有投資人猝不及防。

I plan to let go instacom not because of its business potential, but more on external risk such as china debt default risk and etc.

Steve, yes, still keeping instacom-wb as missed the port this morning..

Cuscapi is still on early stage of growing, not anticipating profit in 2013 but only in 2014 onwards. Hence, no dividend payment should be..therefore i go for warrant... Based on my record, it was traded at 18% premium in sept 2013, subsequently shoot to 40%...then stabilizing around 29% +/-..

Last two days movement has pushed the premium down below 24%...

My opinion,
1) warrant for a high growth company should carry high premium..>30%
2) warrant is currently traded with 0.11 intrinsic value, which i think should be able to overcome quite easily.
3) Unlike instacom-wb which is way deep-out-of-money (because of it current state of business), cuscapi wa is not expensive now.

Immediately risk:
"Goreng" is going on as i personally anticipate at least 2 more loss quarters before profit will role in..

have some post in cuscapi, feel free just browse through...cheers!

oopss... missed the port..

i warrants, i hold cuscapi wa since 0.19 time...still holding :-). Cuscapi is my most favorite stock, which i can simulate the most as i'm doing the business in cuscapi..holding 168 lots warrant now..waiting for the premium to fall below 20%..waiting and waiting

客凱易末季料虧100萬
2014-02-18 17:43


（吉隆坡18日訊）客凱易（CUSCAPI，0051，主板科技組）即將公佈的2013財政年第四季業績料延續第三季令人失望蒙虧，聯昌研究預計該公司第四季將蒙受100萬令吉淨虧損，全年淨虧300萬令吉；不過期待以久的第二國際機場（KLIA2）合約到手，有助扭轉2014年表現。
聯昌說，2014財政年將有希望改善，因2013年延遲推行的工程計劃，特別是旗下新產品――REV自動點餐服務系統商業化後，將開始支撐未來盈利。
客凱易宣佈取得大馬機場（AIRPORT，5014，主板貿服組）頒發一項總值2千100萬令吉工程合約，為吉隆坡國際機場及新的廉航機場――第二國際機場，提供及保養銷售點系統，這是遲來的好消息，預料將支撐2014年之後的盈利表現。
聯昌削減客凱易2013財政年的每股淨利，惟基於新合約，對2014及2015年的財測保持不變，分別為淨利1千290萬及1千750萬令吉。
客凱易攫取得上述新合約，並不令市場感到意外，因為原可在2013年取得有關重大合約，惟因新機場延遲完成才拖延合約頒發。
聯昌認為，由於去年延遲取得重大新合約，以及管理層提昇基建及增加員工人數，即2013年成長20%至360位員工，導致2013年第三季蒙受280萬令吉淨虧損，為過去4年來首次季度虧損。員工增加原本要應付REV啟動後額外技術後援服務。
該行指出，該公司旗下新產品-REV自動點餐服務系，原本新加坡及中國的客戶開始進行測試，不過，在2013年下半年進展緩慢。
中國客戶僅在本月杪才開始首次進行測試，而目前新加坡僅有1家餐飲店開始使用REV系統。巴生河流域有2間餐館使用REV系統，目前為止，該系統使用率尚不普及。
目前該公司已尋求區域快餐店測試REV系統。中國仍是REV系統的最大成長潛能市場，若在未來數月爭取得數家大型客戶，將擁有龐大發展潛能，聯昌保守預測REV系統將在2014及2015年平均取得3千及1萬個使用客戶。
技術層面而言，該公司股價自2013年創下高峰後，即出現鞏固回調，並在2週前触底，有望突破38仙的當前上升阻力。聯昌給予“加碼”評級，目標價70仙。（星洲日報／財經‧報道：李文龍）

Hi Monica, still on ship...to deport at next station..:-)

Hold for long term will reap the fruit ..dont have to be stress

i hold 750 lots wb..price managed to breakeven already

Iwarrant, i'm holding small quantity only. :-)

Sometime using too much risk to chase for too little reward, may not be that wise too..By the way, i'm seeing share market as a whole, not instaco by itself. Happy investing :-)

Decided to sell after weighing the risk and reward of stock market... any businessman will weigh whether risk & reward are in balance. If the risk of one investment is overcoming the reward in large scale, then i think i suppose not worth to the risk. In fact, not only instaco, i have sold many of my holding and holding more cash...So far instaco has been still intact with its potential, that's why i'm not selling immediately but opt for quieing.

Now left only instaco & cuscapi in holding.

Money can be earned any time, so long as tomorrow is not end of the world :-)

Not losing money is also a form of earning.

slowly unload all my holding

I'm queing to unload all my holdings at 0.13

time to sell property stock and standby yourself to be the 100% real property owner rather than be a minority shareholder of the property developer...Cheers!

http://www.thestar.com.my/Business/Business-News/2014/02/15/Johor-chokes-on-property-Carpet-building-by-China-developers-results-in-too-much-too-soon/

Hold for 2 years should reach 0.70 if things progress well...

30% of total revenue of 2012 / 2013

Monica, easy...别人的老公是帅。。。 其实自己的也不差。。 有耐心点吧。。 种柚棕都要三年。。 Cheers!

别人的老婆是美。。。 其实自己的也不差。。 有耐心点吧。。 种柚棕都要三年。。 Cheers!

On the other point, NTA is a good collateral in time of crisis...

Monica, no chasing upward spiral..:-)

My opinion on Hua Yang:
Good basic fundamental:
1) ROE (consistent double digit for past 3 years),
2) Good dividend policy: DY > 6%,
3) EPS CAGR >30% over 10 years
4) current PE about 6. (PER 10 years average range 4.8 - 9.7), highest 15 (2007); lowest 3.2 (2012)
5) Consistent 3 years issue bonus issue to make the share price affordable

Risk for property sector:
1) Immediate risk: possible BLR hike early May 2014. IF hua yang offer DIBS, expecting cost of interest increase and eat into the profit.
2) Possible over supply of property in Malaysia including Iskandar Malaysia (IM). Current average household head count, 4.5 per property in IM; Current properties available in IM just nice matching the demand. Up coming 200,000 newly completed units => massive supply in IM from 2014 - 2015.
3) Population in IM approx. 1.3 million (2006) -->after 7 years--> 1.7 million (2013). Population growth is not keeping up the pace of property supply in IM if calculate annually. Over supply risk is obvious.
4) Spiral effect: Expecting selling price of new launches to be affected when selling price of new supply go down following lower rental yield and higher installment interest rate.
5) Target customers of Hua Yang: Middle income group => the group that being squeezed the most during high inflation time when all the basic living needs are with higher price tag. => expecting lower take up rate of new launches. Affordable home but nobody interested. Car installment and electricity bill will be the priority.

My conclusion: Buy for long term based on the FA and invest in different stages, chase downward spiral only after 30% price drop, aim high DY..As for the rest of market risk, just leave it to the hua Yang team to face the challenge. We shareholders need not worry too much as all investment comes with risk.

Happy investing!

Agreed with you Carson...view from business perspective, then a lot of things making a lot of sense. And "business risk" is inevitable when running a business...share price movement is more on "artificial risk" which is uncontrollable...but with good strategy, this " artificial risk" sometime provide opportunities. Cheers!

According to Taiwan 胡立阳，share market is a very "efficient" place whereby the FUTURE company performance will be reflected at CURRENT share price. For instacom, there was a up trend due to "news of future performance" such as budget allocation for telecomm infra. Thereafter, the share price was beaten down back to "PRE-NEWS" level. So, i assume current price is pretty "realistic".

My opinion: Leader will lead and build the trend...
The cruel reality faced by most F&B operators will eventually shape the future trend of business process and consumer spending behaviour.

A good example:
Upcoming electronic payment via internet banking by bank negara malaysia to phase out cheque transaction in coming april 2014 for businesses. My company just recently adopted such internet banking using token...guess what...even bank officers are not familiar with the process and system, they know the personal ebanking well, but not business e banking...Under such new trend, even most traditional businesses will have no choice but to use internet banking, otherwise RM 0.50 will be charged for each cheque transaction.

Q report this month..

风暴来的快，去的也快。。

sgx just drop below 3000 points

赚得钱，搭的比instacom 的电讯塔还要多，还要高 。。。。

新的一年里，祝个位股东们发发发发发。。天天好天 ！

#WiseEye, there is a profit guarantee part of 15 million. And, Instacom business is basically infra and involve a lot of "servicing" and form big portion of recurring income. I do not have the exact figure. Let assume 20% of the revenue annually, it translate into at least RM 25 million.

lkf, yes...still holding...from paper profit to paper loss position

Now just sit back and be relax

Simple guide, when even aunties in the wet market start crying because of got burn in stock market, then is very good sign to go in to leverage

The biggest trigger point of collapse: when money bubble burst, it is always not just due to the trillions hard cash printed from QEs, but is the hard cash from QEs that has been leveraged. Is just like when you have 10% hard cash, you swipe the card/ loan from the bank where the money just "magically" created out of thin air. It is known that bank can leverage 9 x of the hard money in their reserve. So, The magically money need to be wipe off one day, just a matter of time...If a business is having lots of borrowing, the magical impact is expected to be greater...do proper hedging is advisable.

Hi hilmi, theoretically the effect to instacom business should be little if u agree with me that the business is somehow recession proof and is very much on telecommunication infrastructure.

You need to pay attention on the "aggressive" cash flow model where they are on high borrowing. Since the deposit rate and loan rate lines are separating again in malaysia plus inflation is anticipated, the cost of borrowing and interest to serve existing loan can eat away huge portion of profit.

You also need to check if the borrowing is influence by currency fluctuation as ringgit is pretty weak, maybe weaker after 7 FOMC meeting, not just to USD, but also other currencies. This is double blow: high interest rate + high exchange rate.

Other than that, i think the nature of its business of non-retail + basic infra + routine income should not be influenced too much.

Cost of borrowing will be up..be it personal or business, all will be crying

Poor ringgit ....sigh...Next step, bank OPR to up much earlier than anticipated? good luck to all..

safe haven will prevail in short term

chigago VIX unusually up last week...market a little panic now

The link i personally see now is USD currency VS KLCI.. also RM VS Spot gold..most of my losses in KLCI now is covered by USD currency & spot gold.