Posted by Chee Keong Koh > 2012-06-29 19:02 | Report Abuse

wow.. it seems possible.

Posted by Redzuan Ab Rahman > 2012-06-29 20:02 | Report Abuse

ayoyoyoy.....

Posted by Chong Kiew On > 2012-06-29 20:58 | Report Abuse

very unlikely

Posted by hatifahs > 2012-06-29 21:09 | Report Abuse

Gua Tak cya, itu org aai mahu collect ooi,

Posted by gaman > 2012-06-30 12:26 | Report Abuse

Mana boleh harga FGVH jatuh begitu teruk selepas 2 hari listing! Dia mau org jual dan beli harga murah! Kita tengok minggu depan harga saham FGVH akan berada pada harga RM 5.5 ke atas sbb DOW JONES telah terbang!

Posted by Namoyaki Takarajima > 2012-06-30 12:51 | Report Abuse

Macquirie Group ini bukan calang-calang syarikat sekurities, TETAPI, Macquire Group is making statement based on CURRENT scenario of FGV.

Maksudnya; repot ini dilakukan pada waktu ini dan ketika ini (Current). 'Underperform' rating juga pada waktu dan ketika ini. Macquire berkata semua pokok2 kelapa sawit FGV sudah tua berbanding syarikat2 kelapa sawit yang lain, betul, pada ketika ini lah.

Macquirie mungkinn tidak membaca Malaysia GTP full report (?) dengan apa yang bakal terjadi di Malaysia umumnya dan di Sabah dan Sarawak khasnya. Usahasama MAL-IND, MAL-USA, MAL-ASIAPAC serta usahasama MAL-AFRIKA perlulah diambilkira.

Kes Macquirie ini merupakan salah astu Impak Global kepada FGV dimana dunia sedang melihat siapakah orang yang pertama yang berani membuat kenyataan terawal tentang FGV.

Jadi, Macquirie melaksanakannya terlebih dahulu, apakah motif Macquirie membuat kenyataan sebegini? 'Read between the line'.

Pertamanya, tuan-tuan dan puan puan pada permulaannya mesti mahu bertanya: 'Siapa ka dia si Macquirie Groups ni'?

Jadi bacalah: http://www.macquarie.com/mgl/com/profile/corporate-governance/board-directors#nmoore

Orang FELDA pun boleh faham Impak Global kepada FGV jikalau rajin membaca dan menganalisa. Dengan menjadi sebagai pemegang saham FGV, anda sudahpun berada di dalamnya.

Posted by gaman > 2012-06-30 13:02 | Report Abuse

Perduli apa orang rating FGVH ! Sama ada negatif atau positif yang penting kita sudah buat untung! Kita bukan pelabur yang besar, kita hanya pelabur runcit. Bila kita untung kita buanglah dan kita tunggu IPO IHH lagilah.

Posted by Namoyaki Takarajima > 2012-06-30 14:20 | Report Abuse

hehehe gaman, jual ikan lah lebih baik kalau begitu, jangan jual buah kelapa sawit tetapi jual ikan, sell fish.

Posted by chong > 2012-06-30 15:06 | Report Abuse

FGV: No immediate driver for earnings

Written by Insider Asia
Friday, 29 June 2012 17:00

Felda Global Ventures Holdings Bhd (FGV) was successfully listed on the Main Market of the Bursa Malaysia yesterday. The widely anticipated and high-profile listing came amid uncertain and weak market conditions.

Therefore, it was laudable that the stock did as well as it did. FGV shares made their debut at RM5.39, well above the retail and institutional offer prices of RM4.45 and RM4.55 respectively.

However, as mentioned in our previous article, we are more reserved when it comes to further gains from here after taking into account our earnings and growth forecast for the company.

The company’s main earnings contributor and growth driver is its upstream plantation business. With some 323,587ha of planted oil palm landbank, FGV is the third largest planter in the world. Plantation earnings are primarily dependent on three key factors — price, output and production cost.

Price: Rising tide will lift all boats
Crude palm oil (CPO) prices have come under pressure in recent weeks in line with the broad-based selloff in commodities and equities triggered by investor flight to safety on the back of an escalating eurozone crisis as well as expectations for weaker demand on slower global economic growth.

According to the Malaysian Palm Oil Board statistics, CPO prices averaged RM3,190 per tonne in 1Q12. The average selling price then rose as high as RM3,481 in April but fell back to RM3,189 per tonne in May.

As evidence of a slowdown in the global economy mounted, prices came under further selling pressure. The benchmark futures contracts traded on the Bursa Derivatives tumbled below RM2,900 per tonne before recouping some lost ground.

The futures contracts are now hovering around the RM3,000 per tonne mark. Forecast for lower average prices — especially going into the peak production period — have already led to some earnings downgrades for the plantation sector. Of course, CPO prices could still reverse course and move higher.

Indeed, we believe the underlying demand and supply conditions remain supportive of prices in the long run. Demand for palm oil is forecast to grow steadily, by roughly 4% to 5% per year. Aside from the European Union, the largest consumers of palm oil are emerging countries such as India, Indonesia, China and Pakistan, where the per capita consumption of oils and fats remains well below levels seen in developed nations.

For instance, the per capita consumption in China and India is estimated at roughly 25kg and 15kg respectively, while that in the US is estimated at 55kg and the EU at 59kg. Importantly, demand is growing against a backdrop of a relatively tight global inventory of oilseeds.

Supply is barely keeping pace with steady consumption growth with harvests increasingly affected by unpredictable and often extreme weather conditions around the world. Higher CPO prices, as a common denominator, would lead to improved earnings, and upward re-rating, for all plantations stocks. Under such a scenario, we should see FGV’s share price heading higher, in line with the sector.

Expect flattish earnings growth for foreseeable future
The second factor, production costs, tend to move in the same direction for all planters with the key components being fertiliser, labour and fuel costs that are
largely dictated by macro events.

This being the case, the most significant differentiator among planters then — aside from less tangible factors such as size, location, management and corporate governance — is the expected growth in fresh fruit bunch (FFB) output. Output growth is a function primarily of the age profile of the company’s trees.

Generally speaking, those with younger oil palm trees and higher proportion of newly maturing acreage have better growth prospects and earnings visibility amid short-term price gyrations than companies where most of the trees are already in their prime. In this respect, we are downbeat on FGV’s outlook for the next few years.

As mentioned in our previous article, the company’s mature acreage is expected to be on the decline for some years to come, due to the substantial replanting of old trees. This would translate into stagnant FFB harvest from FGV’s own estates, even assuming a gradual improvement in yields and thus earnings from the upstream plantation business.

The company’s downstream milling and refining operations, housed under 49%-owned associate, Felda Holdings Bhd (FHB), could see slightly better volume growth given that about two-thirds of the FFB processed are purchased from Felda settlers and other parties. Nevertheless, this is a volume-based business with low margins.The refinery business in particular has been tough amid intense pricing competition from
Indonesian refiners following changes to the country’s tax structure.
Meanwhile, earnings growth from the sugar business, housed

Posted by chong > 2012-06-30 15:06 | Report Abuse

The company’s downstream milling and refining operations, housed under 49%-owned associate, Felda Holdings Bhd (FHB), could see slightly better volume growth given that about two-thirds of the FFB processed are purchased from Felda settlers and other parties. Nevertheless, this is a volume-based business with low margins.The refinery business in particular has been tough amid intense pricing competition from Indonesian refiners following changes to the country’s tax structure.
Meanwhile, earnings growth from the sugar business, housed under 51%-owned MSM Malaysia Holdings Bhd, is also expected to be very modest, in line with the low single digit forecast growth for sugar consumption in the country. While sugar demand is expected to be fairly recession proof, MSM’s margin and profits could still be hit by rising costs.

In particular, the company is exposed to fluctuations in the price of imported raw sugar while refined sugar is price controlled. Historically, any shortfall is made up by government subsidies, though this is not guaranteed and not necessarily to the full extent.

Current valuations are not compelling
FGV reported net profit of RM192.2 million in 1Q. We forecast the company’s net profit to total roughly RM1.11 billion for the full year and about RM1.09 billion in 2013. Looking further ahead, earnings growth is expected to be flattish in 2014/15.
That prices the stock at roughly 17.3 and 17.7 times our 2012/13 estimated earnings at our fair value of RM5.30 — at the higher end of the range of the local plantation sector’s valuations and well above prevailing valuations for regional planters. On the upside, shareholders can look forward to steady dividend income.

The company has indicated a minimum 50% profit payout ratio going forward. Based on our earnings forecast, annual dividends will total roughly 15 sen per share. That translates into net yield of about 2.9%, which is about mid-range for the sector.

Future acquisitions may enhance value
On a positive note, FGV will have quite a war chest for new acquisitions and expansion having raised some RM4.3 billion from the IPO (net of listing expenses). Future acquisitions may be earnings accretive. Of the total proceeds, some RM2.2 billion is allocated for the acquisition of plantation assets in the region and Africa.
Earlier this year, FGV acquired a 95% stake in one such project in West Kalimantan, where it plans to plant some 14,385ha with oil palm over the next three years. Greenfield projects will generate the most value over time but the gestation period is long, at least four years before the first harvest.

Thus, we will not see any immediate earnings impact. The company has further allocated some RM1.6 billion to acquire oils and fats manufacturing and logistics businesses as well as mills and refineries.

The vertical integration will offer synergistic benefits and strengthen FGV’s position as a key player in the industry globally. On the other hand, the downstream business is, generally, less lucrative and earnings tend to be more volatile because of the low margins.

Note: This report is brought to you by Asia Analytica Sdn Bhd, a licensed investment adviser. Please exercise your own judgment or seek professional advice for your specific investment needs. We are not responsible for your investment decisions. Our shareholders, directors and employees may have

positions in any of the stocks mentioned.

Posted by chong > 2012-06-30 15:09 | Report Abuse

FGV listing marred by ‘missing’ shares

Friday, 29 June 2012 17:00

KUALA LUMPUR: The euphoric debut of Felda Global Ventures Holdings Bhd (FGV) on Bursa Malaysia was marred by claims of some investors not having their allotment deposited into their Central Depository System (CDS) accounts.

FGV, the country’s most talked about listing, jumped 18.46% to RM5.39, an 84 sen premium to its reference price of RM4.55 at the opening bell. Subsequently, prices retrea-ted and ended the day at RM5.30, which is still a healthy 16.48% premium or 75 sen above its listing price with 261.58 million shares traded.

However, some investors claimed their shares were not credited to the CDS accounts. The affected investors were entirely those who applied for shares as eligible bumiputera investors from the Ministry of International Trade and Industry (Miti).

A broker said the number of affected investors could not be ascertained. But an investor who called The Edge Financial Daily to complain about the shares not being in his CDS account claimed that the numbers were quite big. According to FGV’s prospectus, Miti was allocated 419.54 million shares or 11.5% of the 2.19 billion shares offered under the IPO to be distributed to approved bumiputera investors.

“We paid money for those shares and wanted to sell when the price was right but were told by the brokers that the shares were not credited to the CDS account. We may have lost an opportunity to sell... this is a breach of contract,” a disgruntled investor said.

Brokers say that due to the overwhelming response from investors for FGV shares, brokers, banks and Miti may have been unable to credit the CDS accounts in time, resulting in some of those successful applicants not having their shares in their accounts.“Many people applied for the shares. Probably Miti had not got such a good response for a long time and may be overwhelmed,” said a broker.

Both CIMB Bank Bhd, which is the joint principal adviser and underwriter, and Bursa Malaysia declined to comment. On FGV, group chairman Tan Sri Isa Samad told reporters it is still negotiating terms for its strategic partnership with commodities giant Louis Dreyfus.

“We are still in negotiations with Louis Dreyfus as a strategic partner and other possible partners. We can’t just have one partner in this business. We will announce any strategic alliances accordingly,” he said. Group president Datuk Sabri Ahmad added that the group was trying to come up with a “win-win” partnership with Louis Dreyfus.

Sabri said he was quite positive that the group, despite lower first quarter earnings, would be able to prosper as long as the price of crude palm oil remained above RM3,000. “A big chunk of our profit came from plantations last year, more than 80% gross profit. “We will remain an agri business with a speciality in oleochemicals. We must grow the downstream business to protect the upstream business,” he said.

The group plans to enter Africa via Cameroon in the next three years. Sabri said the main aim is to implement the successful social engineering programme pioneered by Felda, with a focus on enriching farmers’ lives.

While most analysts were pleased with the performance of the stock yesterday — saying it was in line with expectations and is sustainable — other analysts believe that FGV’s performance would rely heavily on how fast it turns around its downstream operations.

“If they manage to turn around by this financial year, then they will be better off. If not, they will be worse off than other plantation companies,” said a plantation analyst with a non-bank backed research house. Nontheless, the possible inclusion of the group into the FBM KLCI would create renewed interest, said an analyst with Alliance Research.

Posted by angsri > 2012-06-30 16:14 | Report Abuse

No wonder the price lonjak saja.....

Posted by benson911 > 2012-06-30 17:26 | Report Abuse

Better buy wilmar (palm oil giant owns by Robert Kuok) which is traded at cheaper valuation compare to this 'political' felda.

http://testsite.internalinsider.info/mobile/malaysia/article/felda-yields-on-par-but-profits-disappoint/

Posted by Azimah Abdul Aziz > 2012-06-30 19:07 | Report Abuse

Bro...semua...wilmar tak de politik power leh....
Nak invest jgn terlampau emotional sangat... Berfikir secara bijak...untuk invest....good luck...

Posted by hatifahs > 2012-06-30 21:58 | Report Abuse

I sangat setuju dgn you ,as investor forget about political as long as kit a boleh buat duet ,kata orang tumpang sekaki.

Posted by firiza > 2012-06-30 22:15 | Report Abuse

harap-harap minggu depan naik la..dapat untung lebih..