Posted by Tan KW > 2015-05-10 18:47 | Report Abuse

hi kc, i have not update cold eyed holding for a period of times....

you can refer to boonlee77's Portfolio http://klse.i3investor.com/servlets/pfs/31055.jsp for latest cold eyed holding.

Posted by kcchongnz > 2015-05-10 18:55 | Report Abuse

TAn KW,

Thanks. But it doesn't matter. The portfolio dated 12th March 2012 is used just as illustration the uncertainties and unpredictability in investing and for learning and discussions purpose.

Posted by Tan KW > 2015-05-10 19:02 | Report Abuse

in your opinion, which investment strategy should be used in current market? magic formula? or, asset play?

Posted by Tan KW > 2015-05-10 19:04 | Report Abuse

"In Bursa, there ain’t no tooth fairy" - why there is two negative there - "ain't" and "no".... wouldn't 2 negative offset each other and become positive?

Posted by NOBY > 2015-05-10 21:19 | Report Abuse

The main problem with deep value investing into cigar butts is that time is not your friend since you are looking to realize that last puff or whatever discount from liquidation. since the business doesnt grow and liquidation value stays constant, the longer it takes to reach fair value, the higher your opportunity cost. In the case of a good growing business it is theopposite since the management can compound capital over time and thus time becomes your friend. Despite this, I still prefer deep value investing, holding a large basket of them since they are easier to analyze, and most of these type of companies are already having all the negatives priced in, chances of achieving alpha is higher. With deep value buys it is better to demand at least a 30 pc margin of safety to cushion the risk on opportunity cost

Posted by sense maker > 2015-05-10 22:24 | Report Abuse

26% absolute gain from March 2012 till today is unforgivable- by the standards of a reasonably good investors, given that these 4 years generally saw good equity gains throughout the world. I think CEyed has done better than 26% but is no where near his past records.

Lesson: past success does not guarantee future achievement- on shares, investors and many other things in life.

Posted by tjhldg > 2015-05-10 22:35 | Report Abuse

Yupss :)..

Posted by AdrienNgTzeLeong > 2015-05-10 22:36 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by bsngpg > 2015-05-10 23:05 | Report Abuse

Sorry to highlight somethings not into your favor.

In the very first place you have used wrong data of his entry prices. In fact no one know what were his actual entry prices. At least I knew he asked me(indeed everybody thru newspaper) to buy Zhulian when it was somewhere <0.90. And his Zhulian was indeed almost zero cost if you adjusted it with div and bonus. If I remember correctly, he recommended cepat at somewhere 0.70, Plenitude(~1.5), MBSB(~1.2) etc all at much lower prices than your data. Yet all of them were original prices before adjustment for div, bonus or right.

The best you may say is that the value of that portfolio shrinks by 8.8% from 2012 to 8May15, but then another fault is that how do you know he did not take profit along the years.

Selective and with what criteria ?
How about his other counters with return in multiple folds such as GTronic, Tambun and apple PIE etc? The pertinent question here is how good your quoted portfolio represents his actual performance. Therefore another fault here is the setting up of the above portfolio which is neither inclusive nor representative.

Therefore I am sorry to have an opinion that this time your discussion and lessons cannot hold water because they are based on inaccurate data.

Posted by NOBY > 2015-05-10 23:44 | Report Abuse

bsngpg, perhaps what KC is trying to illustrate is the perils of someone buying blindly into the cold eye portfolio from the reference date in 2012. As you said no one will know what is his cost until he announces it or it appears in the annual report. Nobody will also know when he takes profit or cuts loss. The purpose of this article is to analyze the lessons that can be learnt from those stocks that were winners and losers in the time period mentioned.

Posted by sense maker > 2015-05-11 01:22 | Report Abuse

I respect Coldeyed a lot and he has already amply proven himself. He has amassed great wealth in his golden days and most importantly managed to retain, if not grow, his wealth for him to be able to retire very rich.

The underperformance in the past 3 years may be due to his spending less time in analyzing the changes in the business landscape in Malaysia.

He is still an idol for many including myself, although I was lucky to turn every RM1 I invested in March 2012 to RM4 in May 2015. The great 3-year record of mine is nothing compared to what Coldeyed has accomplished over 30 years.

He is still very much someone I admire and hope to learn from.

Posted by kcchongnz > 2015-05-11 03:32 | Report Abuse

Posted by bsngpg > May 10, 2015 11:05 PM | Report Abuse

"In the very first place you have used wrong data of his entry prices. In fact no one know what were his actual entry prices. At least I knew he asked me(indeed everybody thru newspaper) to buy Zhulian when it was somewhere <0.90. And his Zhulian was indeed almost zero cost if you adjusted it with div and bonus. If I remember correctly, he recommended cepat at somewhere 0.70, Plenitude(~1.5), MBSB(~1.2) etc all at much lower prices than your data. Yet all of them were original prices before adjustment for div, bonus or right."


Me: Please read what I wrote about in the article. I was referring to a portfolio set up by someone using the stock prices "arbitrary" fixed on 12th March 2012. Did I say that is ColdEye's portfolio with the entry prices as shown? Is the article talking about ColdEye lose or made money the last three years? What is the purpose of this article. to show you that ColdEye lost money in his investment,or is it about what one should care about when investing?


"The best you may say is that the value of that portfolio shrinks by 8.8% from 2012 to 8May15, but then another fault is that how do you know he did not take profit along the years."


Me: Again does the article meant to track ColdEye's wealth, or
"Rather I am putting forward my constructive criticisms, may be on hindsight, on the stocks in his portfolio for discussions purpose."

"How do I know if he did not take profit?"

Obviously I don't know. Who tracked him and knew about them? But is the article about that?


"Selective and with what criteria ?
How about his other counters with return in multiple folds such as GTronic, Tambun and apple PIE etc? The pertinent question here is how good your quoted portfolio represents his actual performance. Therefore another fault here is the setting up of the above portfolio which is neither inclusive nor representative.

Therefore I am sorry to have an opinion that this time your discussion and lessons cannot hold water because they are based on inaccurate data."


ME: Please read carefully again what the article is about. I didn't set up the portfolio. I don't think it is considered "selective" either as I just used that portfolio set up by someone with the arbitrary prices in total. I didn't set up his portfolio.

His other counters? Sorry I didn't track his shares investments.

As an individual, I do make mistake such as using wrong data, wrong analysis, plenty of them, I believe.

No need to be sorry to have a different opinion. This you must have if you want to be successful in investing. This article also shows that all investors should have their own opinion, otherwise investing in the stock market is a very hazardous thing to do.

Posted by contemplator > 2015-05-11 09:49 | Report Abuse

Entry Price is everything :)

Posted by AC Gan > 2015-05-11 10:27 | Report Abuse

Apart from FA & TA... " X Factors " Plays an important role..!

Posted by CCCL > 2015-05-11 11:20 | Report Abuse

I thought he has few furniture counters and Prlexus.

Posted by comingsoon > 2015-05-11 11:39 | Report Abuse

You wrote many great articles but this one is just totally out of mark. bsngbg is correct. I think I have to write something.

Basically it is garbage in garbage out. You can gives those lessons but unfortunately you use the wrong example [coldeye].

Remember the story of the blinds touching the elephant? That's it. The one who touches the ear vs the trunk vs the teeth vs the tail, etc. [different data] can give totally different analysis. Your data is just a small part of the elephant, or even worse, not even an elephant but maybe a lion assume to be an elephant.

The portfolio was obtained from annual reports. So these are the flaws:-

1. Company update annual report only once a year. You do not know the entry price nor it is able to know a trade that has been opened and closed before the annual report date. If one doesn't know the entry price, how reliable can the portfolio data be?

2. Only 30 top shareholders are shown. Coldeye may not have been in the list and so will not be tracked if he owns smaller position or even a large position in a a large cap stock.

And every month, coldeye portfolio will be updated. And there are many of his portfolios tracked in i3 alone. And yet you have picked March 2012 for your starting point and assume coldeye is holding all those stocks until today. You spend so much time preparing a return table for coldeye but not following the changes?

There are a few traits of coldeye that make him very good. One of them is that he is able to admit his own mistakes very quickly and exit fast. On the other hand he keeps his winners run.

You may not like the fact but almost all the counters you used in this example have been sold and replaced with many winners [if you follow the updates]. I didn't even use the word "cut loses" because he may have own those stocks very cheap.

He is doing very very well. One doesn't need to be 100% right. Just like magic formula, not all stocks will be winners. You just need to make sure your winners outperform your losers. This is also similar to Graham holding a basket of NetNet where some went totally kaput and he still do well.

Again, I am not against your lessons. They are useful. But you have picked a very bad example to illustrate your lessons. I hope you won't ask me to reread your article like what you ask bsngbg. Maybe you should reread our comments if you still don't get what we want to say.

Posted by comingsoon > 2015-05-11 13:45 | Report Abuse

@ks55, no one knows his exact entry/average price because the annual report is only released a few days ago and showing top 30 shareholders as of 1 April 2015. See page 108. http://disclosure.bursamalaysia.com/FileAccess/apbursaweb/download?id=169248&name=EA_DS_ATTACHMENTS. We can only know he bought his stock somewhere around 15 April 2014 (2013 annual report update) to 1 April 2015.

UMSNGB has 2 interesting developments. They sold their money losing business and going forward, it will not drag the earnings. And at the same time, they have new operations setup at Vietnam that will contribute in the future. Those furniture stocks like Latitude are making a lot of money from their Vietnam operation.

Posted by kcchongnz > 2015-05-11 15:20 | Report Abuse

“A cynic is a man who knows the price of everything, and the value of nothing.” ― Oscar Wilde


A smart man makes a mistake, learns from it, and never makes that mistake again. But a wise man finds a smart man and learns from him how to avoid the mistake altogether.
Roy H. Williams

Posted by kcchongnz > 2015-05-11 15:26 | Report Abuse

Posted by Tan KW > May 10, 2015 06:47 PM | Report Abuse
hi kc, i have not update cold eyed holding for a period of times....
you can refer to boonlee77's Portfolio http://klse.i3investor.com/servlets/pfs/31055.jsp for latest cold eyed holding.


Posted by kcchongnz > May 10, 2015 06:55 PM | Report Abuse X
TAn KW,

Thanks. But it doesn't matter. The portfolio dated 12th March 2012 is used just as illustration the uncertainties and unpredictability in investing and for learning and discussions purpose.

Posted by kcchongnz > 2015-05-11 16:21 | Report Abuse

Posted by Tan KW > May 10, 2015 07:04 PM | Report Abuse
"In Bursa, there ain’t no tooth fairy" - why there is two negative there - "ain't" and "no".... wouldn't 2 negative offset each other and become positive?


The saying came from the movie show "A million ways to die in the West". The actual saying is ""There ain’t no tooth fairy, idiot!"

Unfortunately this is not asthmatics; two negatives make a positive.

What it means, it is a jungle out there in Bursa. Trading in Bursa is a zero sum game. If I find a stock is so good and I want to buy it, and buy more of it, I won't tell you to buy it before I have bought enough and am ready to sell it. There is no such thing as I am so noble that i want you to make money from the stock market, by telling you to buy it. It is noble act if I donate money to the poor, but making other to make money by speculating in the stock market a noble act?

For God sake, stop telling newbies to use margin finance to buy stock. Imagine if they have listen to your others stocks which have gone down by 50% or even more before, what would happen to them if they have use margin financing?

Posted by kcchongnz > 2015-05-11 18:40 | Report Abuse

Posted by sense maker > May 10, 2015 10:24 PM | Report Abuse
Lesson: past success does not guarantee future achievement- on shares, investors and many other things in life.

Great comment from sense maker.

That is one of the various messages the article intends to pass on, not what price ColdEye bought which shares, when he bought and when he sold, and how much he made or lost. Are these stuff relevant to us?

Posted by kcchongnz > 2015-05-11 19:25 | Report Abuse

Posted by NOBY > May 10, 2015 11:44 PM | Report Abuse
bsngpg, perhaps what KC is trying to illustrate is the perils of someone buying blindly into the cold eye portfolio from the reference date in 2012. As you said no one will know what is his cost until he announces it or it appears in the annual report. Nobody will also know when he takes profit or cuts loss. The purpose of this article is to analyze the lessons that can be learnt from those stocks that were winners and losers in the time period mentioned.

Posted by ks55 > May 11, 2015 09:27 AM | Report Abuse
Give due respect to senior especially the one who has proven track record, but don't follow blindly. Don't worship a human as if he is god. Nevertheless, he has good investment principles that we can learn from.
kcchongnz rightly pointed out having different opinion does not amount to slander on a super investor in Malaysia.


Some see the trees only, but the two people above can see the forest.

Posted by comingsoon > 2015-05-11 19:43 | Report Abuse

If you think many of what you posted are irrelevant, why spend so much time to include them in your title and article?

Maybe a better title for this article is "Musing on the WRONG ColdEye Stocks Portfolio (but it doesn't matter because it is not relevant) kcchongnz"

Unfortunately, it matters. You are showing us the wrong data for your "illustration". It is like showing us an elephant and try to illustrate how a giraffe looks like.

Posted by kcchongnz > 2015-05-11 20:25 | Report Abuse

Posted by comingsoon > May 11, 2015 07:43 PM | Report Abuse
If you think many of what you posted are irrelevant, why spend so much time to include them in your title and article?
Maybe a better title for this article is "Musing on the WRONG ColdEye Stocks Portfolio (but it doesn't matter because it is not relevant) kcchongnz"
Unfortunately, it matters. You are showing us the wrong data for your "illustration". It is like showing us an elephant and try to illustrate how a giraffe looks like.


Well, we certainly have different purpose in this topic here: This is what I have said.


" You can see the degree of respect I have for Mr. Fong. I even used his principles successfully in investing as shown. So there is no reason for me to ridicule him. In fact, Mr. Fong is one of the very rare local investors with logical and fundamentally sound reasoning I have great respect on.

http://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/kcchongnz/75946.jsp

Rather I am putting forward my constructive criticisms, may be on hindsight, on the stocks in his portfolio for discussions purpose. Anyone is welcomed to criticize me too on my comments, of course preferably with some logics, facts and figures, rather than personal attack without any substantiations."


You can see the purpose is to discuss on the stocks in his portfolio, just for discussion purpose. A discussions of whether each of those stocks are good companies and at good price, and whether they are good investments, albeit at hindsight. In another words, a learning experience. Most of my articles in i3investors are of this nature.

Read the conclusion of the article again on "Lessons for investors". I really thought there were some good lessons learned.

Yes, what price he bought and sold, I do not have interest, but merely based on a date when the portfolio was posted by someone else. Ok ok it is relevant to you. That is fine with me.

Your interest seems to be to know what price he bought and sold, how much he made etc. Like "The story of a successful investors". How good he is buying cheap at x price and sold high at y price. Well it is a different interest. May be you can write another article to show us those data. Be my guest.

Posted by donfollowblindly > 2015-05-12 09:13 | Report Abuse

What is the purpose of this blog? Don't follow Cold Eye and follow KC Chong?

Posted by donfollowblindly > 2015-05-12 09:21 | Report Abuse

Newbie a lemon pick from kcchong which is total gone case in just 9 months ago. Stocks indicated in the above blogs is not totally gone case some may take longer time to recover.

http://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/kcchongnz/58905.jsp

Posted by kcchongnz > 2015-05-12 09:24 | Report Abuse

Posted by donfollowblindly > May 12, 2015 08:59 AM | Report Abuse

What is the purpose of this blog? Don't follow Cold Eye(for free) and follow KC Chong(for a small fee)?


Great question.

If you followed blindly the portfolio dated three years ago put up by someone here for free:

http://klse.i3investor.com/servlets/pfs/6736.jsp

You lost 8.8% compared to the gain of 26% of KLCI.

If you follow what we discussed in i3 two years ago, harnessing the wisdom of ColdEye, you got a return of 186% compared to 18.5% of KLCI

http://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/kcchongnz/75946.jsp

So donfollowblindly, which was a better option on hindsight? To think that there is this free thingys in Bursa and underperformed badly, or to pay a small fees to learn the art of investing and build long-term wealth confidently?

Posted by kcchongnz > 2015-05-12 13:40 | Report Abuse

Posted by donfollowblindly > May 12, 2015 09:21 AM | Report Abuse
Newbie a lemon pick from kcchong which is total gone case in just 9 months ago. Stocks indicated in the above blogs is not totally gone case some may take longer time to recover.

http://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/kcchongnz/58905.jsp


I really pity this donfollowblindly but he followedblindly on Maybank C6 which I was educating people to beware about the doubled edged sword of leverage in call warrants above.

I really think it is good to read my post above to learn about the peril of punting in call warrants and how one should use it as financial risk management, rather than punting, but don't follow this donfollowblindly and punted and lost his underwear.

Look at all these posts here:

http://klse.i3investor.com/servlets/cube/post/donfollowblindly.jsp


Half of those comments are followblindly on those stocks which were written by me for sharing of knowledge, not recommending for buy or sell. And you know what, these are probably just a few percent of those stocks I wrote. He didn't manage to folowmeblindly to buy any of over 90% of those stocks which were written by me and made money, many of them big big money.

This is really a six sigma event. Poor soul donfollowblindly.

Posted by lookingaround > 2015-05-12 18:24 | Report Abuse

Just little comment, that probably Cold Eye wont care much of price fluctuation. Just feel nonsense to argue on the reference price and whether Cold Eye is making loss.

The dividends that Cold Eye earns now is more than sufficient for the rest of his life giving the amount of shares he is currently holding.

Somewhere i read long time ago, that price fluctuation in short term is just a voting machine. But if the investor is for long term value investing with quality portfolio, why bother so much on the price fluctuation?