Likely MD will continue to buy. He sold 5.5m shares in Sept and all his warrants lately, total proceeds is RM31m. He bought 4.2m shares lately, cost him only RM5.4m. He still has RM25m cash. FD? Few rationale reasons a businessman buy a stock, like biz, it must have done a considered valuation (like projects, estimated the risks and rewards).
Some of the measurable reasons a person will buy Gadang shares (whether EPF or foreign institutionals, likely justifiable):
1. Projects secured since Sept 2016 to May 2017, value added far exceed share price increased 2. Dividend (likely Nov 2017), perhaps is close to FD, 3.5% 3. Company ROE > EY, foreseeable next 2-3 years. 4. Anticipated securing major projects next couple of months 5. Better 4Q, profit for 2017 exceed 2016 by more than 10% 6. Gadang, PE is low compare with other peers. 7. Reward > Risk (biz risk and investor risk is different)
As I have said before, "operator" or "stockist" is part of the eco-system. Some are better than the other, it is relative. They are like acquaintances in the office, no harm having them around, but when you are sick, they won't be there for you, you are on your own. That explain why investment must be independent. 23/05/2017 16:15
MD bought another 450,000 shares on 22 May 2017. Making it 4.6m now. Too little, anything less than 20m shares, is too small for MD. Looks like more buying is expected.
Rough calculation of "considered value" of Gadang @ 2 June 2017 1. Construction order book is RM1.4b (effective interest) x 9% (NP margin) / 3.5 years x PE 14x (TA ascribed) = RM504m (assumed next 3.5 years no new contracts secured - unlikely)
2. Property - GDV 5.4b - assumed 12 years @ 20% NP Margin at PE of 8x x discounting rate 79% = RM504m (conservative of using 12 years)
3. Utility/Plantation - invested about RM80m, used 2.5 factor, value at about RM200m
4. Net cash as at Feb 2017 is RM55m.
Total sum of parts = 504 + 504 + 200 + 55 = 1.463b divided by 654m shares RM2.23 per share vs today's price of RM1.26.
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Posted by Ricky Kiat > 2017-05-09 13:27 | Report Abuse
dumb dumb hold..cheers..\(^o^)/