Can icon sifu explain whether El-Nino is good for plantation stock or not?
Logic Thinking:-
1) El-Nino affect the production, since production will be reduce, revenue will reduce.
2) Since production reduce, CPO price will increase, so it offset the production loss.
In Practical:-
1) Production reduce, CPO price also reduce, because when El-Nino is at South East Asia, his sister La-Nina is at South America, so SOYBEAN production increase, SOYBEAN oil price drop, and cause CPO price drop as well.
same old story again, Calvin promoted oil palm stocks years ago because of El Nino, price correctly up but production dropped hugely at the same time, making all oil palm companies bleeding like hell.
Posted by OptimusCallMeBaba > May 20, 2017 11:21 PM | Report Abuse
same old story again, Calvin promoted oil palm stocks years ago because of El Nino, price correctly up but production dropped hugely at the same time, making all oil palm companies bleeding like hell.
El Nino is not a blessing but it's a curse.
Calvin think you should study this chart very very carefully:
From the above chart you can see that El Nino years of 1997/8 caused CPO prices to shoot up.
So were the El Nino years of 2007/8 & 2011/2012
All those times CPO prices shot up - followed by earnings per share
See these years & prices of Kwantas below:
I have most of the Plantation Stocks 10 Year Performance with me as I look into the STOCK PERFORMANCE GUIDE By Dynaquest
OK I will Only Post EPS (Earnings Per Share)
KWANTAS CORP
Year................EPS 2005................12.2 sen 2006................5.8 sen 2007................25.0 sen 2008................48.4 sen 2009................-22.7 sen 2010................1.4 sen 2011................27.3 sen 2012................11.7 sen 2013................13.4 sen 2014................20.3 sen 2015.................-9.4 sen
As you can SEE
El Nino Years are
2007 when EPS is at 25.0 sen
2008 when EPS peaked as a high of 48.4 sen
Again El Nino year in 2011 EPS is a high of 27.3 sen
SO IN EL NINO YEARS WHEN FFB ARE LESS
PROFITS EXPLODED UPWARD
SO BY THESE CORRESPONDING EL NINO YEARS OF 2016, 2017 & 2018
El nino or La nina, who cares? does not affect anyone who believe in stock fundamental....raining or no raining, palm oil companies still need people to work in palm oil plantation because it does make money.....
Unless KLK dropped half, otherwise, BKawan may be a good friend. Share buyback since a year ago from 16+ to 19+. Of course, don't put this one in your competition stocks, move like snail.
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Posted by speakup > 2017-05-19 11:46 | Report Abuse
El nino = sell CPO!
La nina = buy CPO!
which is it now?