Posted by 3iii > 2019-01-18 18:29 | Report Abuse

Make sure you have the cash and courage to add more when your predicted correction comes true.

Do you not notice that stock prices do fluctuate a lot even in a 52 week period - up 50% and down its equivalent 1/3? Hopefully, you have a good strategy in place to benefit from this market price fluctuation (Mr. Market).

Posted by 3iii > 2019-01-18 18:38 | Report Abuse

Finally:


MARKET FLUCTUATIONS OF INVESTOR'S PORTFOLIO
Note carefully what Graham is saying here.

It is not just possible, but probable, that most of the stocks you own will gain at least 50% from their lowest price and lose at least 33% ("equivalent one-third") from their highest price -regardless of which stocks you own or whether the market as a whole goes up or down.

If you can't live with that - or you think your portfolio is somehow magically exempt from it - then you are not yet entitled to call yourself an investor.




BENJAMIN GRAHAM'S 113 WISE WORDS
The true investor scarcely ever is forced to sell his shares, and at all times he is free to disregard the current price quotation. He need pay attention to it and act upon it only to the extent that it suits his book, and no more. Thus the investor who permits himself to be stampeded or unduly worried by unjustified market declines in his holdings is perversely transforming his basic advantage into a basic disadvantage. That man would be better off if his stocks had no market quotation at all, for he would then be spared the mental anguish caused him by other persons' mistakes of judgement."

Posted by stockraider > 2019-01-18 18:48 | Report Abuse

This Ben Graham wise comment below is applicable to margin of safety stock like insas share price rm 0.70 with Nta rm 2.54 and nett cash Rm 0.70 per share with PE less than 10x and with decent div yield of about 3% pa loh..!!

Not applicable to overvalue stock like QL and Nestle, if u encounter big selloff on this type of counter u better cut n lari kuat kuat loh...bcos no margin of safety mah with Pe 50x, dividend yield of o.5% to 2.0% pa loh.....!!


Posted by 3iii > Jan 18, 2019 06:38 PM | Report Abuse

Finally:

MARKET FLUCTUATIONS OF INVESTOR'S PORTFOLIO
Note carefully what Graham is saying here.

It is not just possible, but probable, that most of the stocks you own will gain at least 50% from their lowest price and lose at least 33% ("equivalent one-third") from their highest price -regardless of which stocks you own or whether the market as a whole goes up or down.

If you can't live with that - or you think your portfolio is somehow magically exempt from it - then you are not yet entitled to call yourself an investor.

BENJAMIN GRAHAM'S 113 WISE WORDS
The true investor scarcely ever is forced to sell his shares, and at all times he is free to disregard the current price quotation. He need pay attention to it and act upon it only to the extent that it suits his book, and no more. Thus the investor who permits himself to be stampeded or unduly worried by unjustified market declines in his holdings is perversely transforming his basic advantage into a basic disadvantage. That man would be better off if his stocks had no market quotation at all, for he would then be spared the mental anguish caused him by other persons' mistakes of judgement."

Posted by qqq3 > 2019-01-18 18:50 | Report Abuse

truth be told, I never see shares like LCTITAN as investment shares like QL and Nestle...shares like LC is and always a trading share...a good trading share because it follows logics....

Posted by lazycat > 2019-01-18 19:10 | Report Abuse

well, what stocks would you recommend as low risk + high return for this year?

Posted by 3iii > 2019-01-18 20:04 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by stockraider > 2019-01-18 20:19 | Report Abuse

U ask yourself what type of earning power ??
When Nestle earnings yield is less than 2% pa based on PE above 50%...even u put monies in fixed deposits u get an earning power of 4% pa mah....!!

If u buy insas got earning power as Pe less than 10x...earning yield already exceed 10% pa mah...!!

Margin of Safety for those who are invested in Nestle, DLady, PBB, Petdag and HEIM, as explained and taught by Benjamin Graham, the father of value investing.
:thumbsup: :thumbsup:

In the ordinary common stock, bought for investment under normal conditions, the margin of safety lies in an expected earning power considerably above the going rate for bonds.

Over a ten-year period the typical excess of stock earning power over bond interest may aggregate 50% of the price paid.

This figure is sufficient to provide a very real margin of safety— which, under favorable conditions, will prevent or minimize a loss.

Posted by stockraider > 2019-01-18 20:31 | Report Abuse

U need understand what is real earning power loh...!!

Insas ROE only 4% pa....but based on rm 2.54 u generating eps of Rm 0.10 pa loh....!!

so if u buy insas at rm 0.70 u r getting yield of 14% pa....this is what we call earning power loh...!!

Posted by stockraider > 2019-01-18 20:49 | Report Abuse

Nestle ROE very terror 120% pa with NTA of Rm 3.00 it generate earnings of Rm 3.60....but u need to buy nestle for Rm 140.00...so ur earnings yield is less than 2.6 % pa loh...!!

Now u compare nestle 2.6% pa v insas 14% pa, u ask who got more earnings power leh ??
Of course Insas mah...14& pa warnings yield even kindy student understand 14% pa is more than 2.6% pa mah..!

But growth proponent may argue, nestle have growth woh ??

Raider ask very logical question loh...how much growth & for how long nestle need to grow from 2.6% pa to catch up with insas yield of 14% pa even, if u assume insas has no growth at all loh...!!

The answer is very long and very uncertain when nestle can catch up mah...!!

An english old saying a bird in hand is better than 2 in the bush mah...!!
Insas yield is already there with 14%pa...now u want to speculate nestle yield 2.6% pa can catch up, but when leh ??

Thus insas has definitely has higher margin of safety than nestle loh..!!

Posted by lazycat > 2019-01-18 21:04 | Report Abuse

mr loh..!!

the fact that insas is thong kok khee personal piggy bank meant margin of safety is completely meaningless loh..!!

u understand mah...?

Posted by stockraider > 2019-01-18 21:09 | Report Abuse

That is a separate issue under psychological investment aspect of share loh...!!
If u read sslee comment carefully, he has already dealt and risk manage this aspect u have highlighted mah...!!

Posted by lazycat > Jan 18, 2019 09:04 PM | Report Abuse

mr loh..!!

the fact that insas is thong kok khee personal piggy bank meant margin of safety is completely meaningless loh..!!

u understand mah...?

Posted by calvintaneng > 2019-01-18 21:11 | Report Abuse

Whoa Sifu Stockraider telling 2 Dinosaurs, One Quack duck, one lazycat and one smart alex

AhFah sure clever street smart!!

Posted by KLCI Going Heaven > 2019-01-18 22:01 | Report Abuse

all these uncle comment so long, can read whole day also can't finish haih

Posted by qqq3 > 2019-01-18 22:26 | Report Abuse

cal and raid...Insas is a stock for novices..fact.......everyday shout for what? can go up meh?

Posted by lazycat > 2019-01-18 22:32 | Report Abuse

mr qqq3 , what stocks would you recommend to buy as a low risk + high return investment for this year?

Posted by qqq3 > 2019-01-18 22:47 | Report Abuse

in my dictionary where got low risk high return one?

Posted by qqq3 > 2019-01-18 22:47 | Report Abuse

risk and return is what one makes of it....stocks by itself is risk is related to return....

Posted by qqq3 > 2019-01-18 22:51 | Report Abuse

qL is a low risk high return share for philip because he knows how to handle it and already so much unrealized profits....

Posted by qqq3 > 2019-01-18 22:54 | Report Abuse

risk and return is inherent in the share, any share...high risk high return....low risk low return...u wouldn't know it flips left or right until the future has come ....risk and return is what one makes of it....

just because a share goes up after purchase, it does not mean it is a high return low risk share......

Posted by qqq3 > 2019-01-18 22:57 | Report Abuse

lazycat > Jan 18, 2019 10:32 PM | Report Abuse

mr qqq3 , what stocks would you recommend to buy as a low risk + high return investment for this year?

======

however if u are talking about share with growth characteristics that i like , I can give u ...Vitrox.....

Posted by lazycat > 2019-01-18 22:58 | Report Abuse

what stocks you considered as a low risk yet high return for year 2019?
would you like to share your stock picks?

Posted by qqq3 > 2019-01-18 23:04 | Report Abuse

azycat > Jan 18, 2019 10:58 PM | Report Abuse

what stocks you considered as a low risk yet high return for year 2019?
=========

I thought I have answer u above....

Posted by qqq3 > 2019-01-18 23:05 | Report Abuse

first, I am a high frequency trader.....today I just bought Armada....

Posted by qqq3 > 2019-01-18 23:07 | Report Abuse

I can talk about it...but I am not naturally a buy and hold guy......I just don't have the temperament for it....but I respect and I like people who do....

Posted by qqq3 > 2019-01-18 23:09 | Report Abuse

for 2019....I am naturally bearish..as I was naturally bearish for whole for 2018....

I wrote this...

https://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/qqq3/188428.jsp

I seems time to trade now...so I trade la.......

Posted by qqq3 > 2019-01-18 23:10 | Report Abuse

I think Jaks is a good bet for 2019....

Posted by lazycat > 2019-01-18 23:16 | Report Abuse

why u choose vitrox over penta?

Posted by qqq3 > 2019-01-19 00:48 | Report Abuse

read the vitrox report, I challenge anyone who is not impressed.

Penta? Penta is another level lower. Analysts are right when analyst don't like their listing of subsidiary in HK.

Posted by qqq3 > 2019-01-19 01:17 | Report Abuse

I can't even understand how Penta can compete against Vitrox

Posted by lazycat > 2019-01-19 01:25 | Report Abuse

link of the vitrox report please

Posted by qqq3 > 2019-01-19 01:33 | Report Abuse

annual report I mean.

Posted by Haw Liao > 2019-01-19 11:46 | Report Abuse

thats why u need 4 wifes to have an edge...

Posted by 3iii > 2019-01-19 12:20 | Report Abuse

Can someone do a comparative study of these 4 growing companies in Bursa:

Nestle
QL
Topglove
Hartalega

This study should be both educational and fun, and may even be rewarding too.

Posted by stockraider > 2019-01-19 12:27 | Report Abuse

These stocks are old hags & their success are already price in lah....!!

Just look for future growth stock, don waste time always looking at the rear mirror, telling us how good, how good loh ??

If u want to look at the rear mirror maybe can engage a Phd student to do an academic study mah...!!


Posted by 3iii > Jan 19, 2019 12:20 PM | Report Abuse

Can someone do a comparative study of these 4 growing companies in Bursa:

Nestle
QL
Topglove
Hartalega

This study should be both educational and fun, and may even be rewarding too.

Posted by Haw Liao > 2019-01-19 12:32 | Report Abuse

nestle not many can invest lah...over priced just like gold

QL everyday u eat chicken and egg and seafood won't make the share price go higher

glove stocks danger stock...wait for clear rebound

stock market is about perception, price and value can be made up by market makers

Posted by Haw Liao > 2019-01-19 12:37 | Report Abuse

just before glove stock crashed, they say dividend defensive stock lol then they say overvalued crash until mother father no eyes see...

controlled by market makers

Posted by Haw Liao > 2019-01-19 12:44 | Report Abuse

when u talk like professor in stock market, u are falling prey to the stock operators...

because they can read your next move...

learn to be the hunter, not the hunted

Posted by 3iii > 2019-01-19 12:50 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by 3iii > 2019-01-19 13:04 | Report Abuse

Segmental businesses of QL

4 segments:

MPM (Marine Products Manufacturing)
ILF (Integrated Livestock Farming)
POA (Palm Oil Activities)
Family Mart (New)


2018 Annual Report
(m)

MPM
Rev 905
Profit 124.1
Assets 1076.6
Liabilities 258.3
Equity 818.3
Finance cost (6)

ILF
Reve 1971
Profit 103
Assets 1762.5
Liabilities 1017.7
Equity 744.8
Finance cost (36.7)

POA
Rev 387
Profit 27.9
Assets 486.9
Liabilities 159
Equity 327.9
Finance cost (6)



Revenues by countries

Malaysia 2601 (2018) 2446 (2017)
Indonesia 560.4 (2018) 471 (2017)
Vietnam 93.6 (2018) 90.5 (2017)
Others (China & Singapore) 7.7 (2018) 4.9 (2017)

Posted by lazycat > 2019-01-19 13:06 | Report Abuse

pos used to trade above PE 50
gdex above PE 100

look at this 2 stocks price now

Posted by 3iii > 2019-01-19 13:27 | Report Abuse

The shareholdings distribution of QL is interesting:

less than 100 (0%)
274

101 to 1000 (0.03%)
843

1001 to 10,000 (0.82%)
2882

10,001 to 100,000 (4.09%)
2093

100,001 to 5% (41.39%)
604

5%+ (53.67%)
2


Total no of shareholders: 6698



The number of shareholders with 100,001 + shares in QL is
606 (collectively own 95.06%)


Breakdown
2 own 53.67%
28 own 21.07%
576 own 20.32%

6092 own 4.94%

Posted by 3iii > 2019-01-19 13:34 | Report Abuse

Therefore, 9.1% of shareholders own 95.06% of QL.

This is not unexpected. It is well known that 1% of the population owns 50% of the wealth, the next 9% of the population owns the next 40%. The majority (90%) owns less than 10% of the wealth.

Posted by 3iii > 2019-01-19 13:43 | Report Abuse

At price of 6.87 per share, QL has a market cap of 11.146 billion.

Net earnings in 2018 was 215.7 m
Net CFO was 298.6 m
Capex was 339 m
Increase in debt was 169 m
Dividend 90.5 m


It is a good company, not a great company (by my definition).
It is also trading at a high valuation.

For these reasons, I shall not be buying this stock today. It will be in my radar screen though. I will spend a bit more time to understand its new business, Family Mart.

Posted by 3iii > 2019-01-19 13:47 | Report Abuse

I group Nestle, DLady and perhaps, Harta in a group of their own (great companies).

I will put QL and Topglove in the same group (good companies).


http://myinvestingnotes.blogspot.com/2010/03/the-three-gs-of-buffett-great-good-and.html

Posted by Haw Liao > 2019-01-19 14:02 | Report Abuse

family mart too many competition from mushrooming cheaper convenience store...

the convenience store concept only works well in high income country because selling overpriced items...

implementation at the wrong timing

Posted by 3iii > 2019-01-19 15:05 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by 3iii > 2019-01-19 15:06 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by 3iii > 2019-01-19 15:07 | Report Abuse

>>>>Haw Liao when u talk like professor in stock market, u are falling prey to the stock operators...

because they can read your next move...

learn to be the hunter, not the hunted
19/01/2019 12:44<<<<


These operators do not fancy the stocks I like.

Posted by stockraider > 2019-01-19 15:08 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by Sslee > 2019-01-19 19:06 | Report Abuse

Dear all,
My response to Mr. Philip: THE PERCEPTION OF P/E
Definition of High PE or growth trap: Growth, again, has little meaning without any reference to the future return of the business. Growth is only good if it is above the cost of capital.
https://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/Sslee_blog/190733.jsp

Thank you