Looks very over-priced.

In FY 2023, its annual revenue was RM 2.0b and NP 167m.
NPM was 8.13% and ROE 11.95%.
Its P/NAPS was 4.97x. Its PE today is >50x.

At RM 3.20 per share, its market cap is RM 11.612 billion.

Assuming the risk free rate is 4%, you can get a risk free earning yield of 4% (that is a PE of 25x).
At PE of 25x, we would wish to see Chin Hin having earnings of RM 464.5million per year.
IF it can grow at a high rate of return for a reasonable number of years, we may give it a higher PE than 25x.

The RM1.90 dividend for last year cannot be sustained.

Its dividend in 2023 was RM 1.90 (Interim 40 sen, Final 70 sen, Special and others 80 sen)

At the price of RM 24.10 per share, its DY is 4.56% (assuming sustainable recurrent dividends of 110 sen)

Still the best run plantation company in Malaysia.

Retailing is a challenging business. Where is the competitive advantage for long term durable growth?

Its highest dividend paid in 2018 was 20 sen per share.
Its dividend for year 2023 was 5 sen per share.
It is probable that the future dividends will continue to be cut due to falling profits.

Poor consumer sentiment, high inflation and cost of living were quoted as reasons for the drops in revenues and earnings.

Its revenues and earnings continue to shrink from their peaks in 2016.

Balance sheet remains strong, no debts.

Concept of equity bond (of Warren Buffett)

Heim was bought at RM6, decades ago.
Its latest yearly dividend was 128 sen.
Imagine owning a bond with a face-value of RM 6 and paying increasing coupon rate over many years.
Today, its coupon rate is 21.3% (=RM1.28/Rm6.00).

A brief review of my long term portfolio

1. Investing is very safe for the long term. Short term results can be extremely volatile. Be prepared for rough rides anytime.

2. Holding on to winners, selling the losers. This ensures that your portfolio will contain many winners. Of course, another assumption being not to invite "losers" into your portfolio.

3. The long term multi-baggers are the true builders of the wealth in the portfolio. Even then, over the decades, their prices fluctuated too (not a surprise). The ability to continue hold on to these for decades ensure you grow your wealth through compounding in these winners.

4. Sell quickly those stocks that have deteriorated fundamentally (business wise). You may choose to sell some of the stocks you like too if you think they are too over-priced (or you may choose not to use this strategy, it will be fine too).

5. Twitching your portfolio now and again, to improve on the quality of the stocks in it and also to optimise returns is a good practice. Do this occasionally, but rarely. Often you will find that you can reinvest into the same stocks that you know well in the stock portfolio.

6. Sometimes, you made a mistake in buying a particular stock. Just sell and reinvest into another you like.

7. Always buy at bargain prices. An investment is good at a certain price and very bad at a high price. The market is there to serve you, you will always have a chance to buy cheap. Be patient.

8. Have the courage and the cash ready to act when an opportunity presents. Be greedy when everyone is fearful. Fire your elephant gun, do not be timid in this opportune time.

What calvintaneng is pointing out is "don't be the patsy". :-)

Newly listed.
Already difficult to understand its accounts.
Such a big drop in revenue (due to non-redemption of packages)

RM ('000)
Qtr Rev … PBT … NP
31-Mar-24 9,454 … -7,909 … -7,909
… …
31-Dec-23 17,573 … -269 … -1,073
30-Sep-23 15,513 … -3,133 … -2,741
30-Jun-23 17,892 … 5,271 … 4,017
31-Mar-23 16,811 … 3,185 … 2,357

INSAS

Still a very gruesome company.
It will be difficult to value this company.
Many who invested into this company opine it is severely undervalued.
Yes, based on its discount to the NAV, it is severely undervalued.
Yet, an undervalued company can remain undervalued for a very long time.
Insas is indeed an example of this.

Over the last decade, its NAPS has grown from RM 1.73 to RM 3.47.
Over the same period, it continues to be priced at >70% discount to its NAPS.

Given its latest ROE of 3.61%, it is not surprising that it trades at a discount to its NAPS.
Over the decade, its share price fluctuated between RM 0.64 to RM 1.06.
In 2017, its share price touched RM 1.07 and today, its closing price was RM 1.08.

Yes, it is very undervalued. For those who have owned this stock the last 10 years, they are trapped waiting for this stock to be repriced.

Holding such stocks are fine, but if the fair value is not realised by the 2nd year or so, there is opportunity cost incurred. Imagine if you have held Scientex instead of Insas the last decade.

Its share price in 2014 was RM 1.21 per share and its dividend in 2014 was 2.99 sen per share.
It paid increasing dividends over the last 10 years.
Today, its dividend for 2023 was 10 sen per share.
This gives a dividend yield of 10 sen / RM 1.21 = 8.26% based on historical cost.

This is another multi-bagger for those who have this stock in their portfolio for the last decade or more. The last 2 decades saw rapid growth of this company's twin businesses. It has grown big, and its growth has slowed relatively, but the management has been excellent. Its property business (building affordable homes) should continue to deliver good profits going forward.

Over the last 10 years:

It grew its revenue at CAGR of 4.86%
It grew its net profit at CAGR 4.27%
Its dividend distributed grew at CAGR of 6.53%.

Its DPO ratio grew from 46% (2014) to 55% (2023).
DPS grew from 10.74 sen (2014) to 19 sen (2023).
Of note: in 2020, it distributed 13 sen in dividends (cf 14.60 sen in 2019)
Its Net Profit Margins remain steady between 25% to 27%.
Its ROEs from 2014 to 2018 were in the mid teens. From 2019 to now, they were at the low teens.

Its PE hovered between 12 to 16 over many years. Today, its PE is in the lower part of this range.
A good way to value a bank is to look at its P/NAPS: PBB was a very expensive bank in the past as its P/NAPS was consistently above 2. Today, its P/NAPS is 1.52x. With a ROE of 12.16% today, this high quality company is trading at a: _____________.


Price = EPS x PE

Its EPS is consistent and growing.
Its PE has shrunk.

Latest annual revenue still remains below the prepandemic level. It is about the same revenue as in 2017.
However, its profit before tax has turned positive this year.
At RM 3.46 per share today, this is double from its lowest price of 2022.

Topglove

This stock was the darling of many newcomers in 2020. Sadly, all who bought in 2020 and did not sell would have lost a lot of their capital.

Those who bought before 2020 and still holding their stocks today will see their share price shrunk by 40% or so. However, Topglove distributed 75 sen dividends (2020 11.67 sen and 2021 63.50 sen) and given its price of RM 1.10 today, they probably are sitting on a small gain today.

Luckily, I sold Topglove in 2020 on its way up, at the time of exuberance, though I still hold shares in this company today.

A turnaround stock.

Revenues and earnings continue to grow at low pace (4% annually).
Dividends paid over the last 10 years grew from 11sen (2014) to 19 sen (2023),. growing at CAGR of 6%+.

At price of RM 4.04:
Its PE has shrunk from mean of 14 to 11.8 today.
Its present DY is 4.7%.

After World War II, US became the dominant country in the world. The world was divided and the cold war ensued for many years. The Soviet Union broke up and many of its newly independent countries are now with or leaning to the G7 and European countries.

The US dollar reigned supreme. It soon become the world reserve currency and most trades between countries are settled in US dollars. The SWIFT system provides the mean to trade using the US dollars for many decades.

When the US santioned Russia by kicking it out of the SWIFT system and also freezing its US denominated assets (mostly in US Treasury bonds), it set off an alarm bell to those holding the US dollars and their vulnerabilities, especially in those where US try to coerced or pressured.

The need to look for an alternative system was urgent for these countries not in the good books of the US. They looked to learn from the Iranian sanctions by the US and also the sanctions of Russia by the US, and given our human ingenuity, soon comes out with a system to trade among themselves, by passing the use of the US currency. Moreover, while the G7 controlled a huge part of the world GDP at its inception, its influence today is much less (30%). BRICS+ controls more than 30% of the world GDP today.

In a few months or perhaps a year or two, we should see the rise of a new world currency system (backed by gold) in place, for those countries wishing to participate in this. In the next few years, the US currency will remain all powerful still but the weaponisation of the US currency will be less effective. Over time, will we be seeing the rise of the BRIC+ currency and the slow gentle decline of the US currency as the world reserve currencies.

Given the huge debts of the US, will the slow decline in the use of the US currency as a world reserve currency impact its economic strength in the near future?

Poh Kong

Highest qtrly revenue and highest qtrly net profit reported.
Revenues increased by 23% and net profit increased by 69% QoQ
Higher revenues and increase in gold prices had improved its profit margin.

calvintaneng, the KLCI has risen 10% YTD. However, you promoted TSH from 1.78 to 1.05. Maybe you should reconsider your actions?

>>>
Posted by calvintaneng > 2 weeks ago | Report Abuse



Better sell Dlady (holland grandma)

GO BUY NOTION

NOTION VTEC: 4 ENGINES OF GROWTH FIRING UP IN UNISON: HDD (Hard Disk Drive), DIGITAL CAMERA, EMS, PPE N95 FACE MASKS, Calvin Tan

https://klse.i3investor.com/web/blog/detail/www.eaglevisioninvest.com/2024-05-20-story-h-161551412-NOTION_VTEC_4_ENGINES_OF_GROWTH_FIRING_UP_IN_UNISON_HDD_Hard_Disk_Drive
>>>


Don't expect a good deal from a dishonest person. :-)
😀🤔

>>>
Posted by calvintaneng > 12 hours ago | Report Abuse

As long as DC (Data Center) continue to proliferate Notion, Jcy and Dufu should continue its bull run
Watch Western Digital, Seagate and Nvidia perform to see the Hdd bull trend
>>>


High risk, low reward

My protection:

For every 500 companies screened
Saying NO to 200 companies
Saying YES to 1 company

😀

Projected EPS for next year: 140 sen - 160 sen
At today's price of RM 38 per share, its projected PER is 27 to 23.7

Hoperfully, DLady will soon normalise its gross profit margins soon and with its increasing revenues, this will translate into even higher earnings and EPS.

Summary
Total comments
31,556
Past 30 days
0
Past 7 days
0
Today
0

Stockraider

Hasn't posted for a month. Hope all is well with him.

🤔

Learn from history.

The mainland Chinese are now so much better than their parents and grandparents. We applaud and rejoice their successes. Lifting such a big population out of poverty is a great achievement.

Tiananmen incident is repeatedly used by the detractors to run down mainland China. The majority of the mainland Chinese rightly support their government of the day.

The 4Cs

Chun, chun, chun, calvin

calvintaneng comes out again with another of his projections. This is just classic of this chap.

ECRL Project: He came up with a long list of companies that will benefit from this project, due to their lands being proximal to this project. What happened?

National Fibre Project: He came out with a list of companies. Remember what happened to NETX.

Plantation stocks: He too came out with a long list of plantation stocks that he was convinced will be multiple winners. We know his TSH sank from $1.78 to $1.05.

Now, he is into data centers and he too has a long list of companies that will benefit.

My observation is he is a very imaginative person indeed.

Good morning. 😀😀

calvintaneng comes out again with another of his projections. This is just classic of this chap.

ECRL Project: He came up with a long list of companies that will benefit from this project, due to their lands being proximal to this project. What happened?

National Fibre Project: He came out with a list of companies. Remember what happened to NETX.

Plantation stocks: He too came out with a long list of plantation stocks that he was convinced will be multiple winners. We know his TSH sank from $1.78 to $1.05.

Now, he is into data centers and he too has a long list of companies that will benefit.

My observation is he is a very imaginative person indeed.

Good morning. 😀😀

It is not necessarily a problem for a company to spend heavily on capex, as long as the capex is earnings a decent ROCE.

However, capex that is consistently much higher than depreciation with no improvement in ROCE is rarely the hallmark of a great company.

Essentially, MYEG's capex is high. Mostly for developing new businesses. It has taken on more debts. OTOH, its Return on capital employed remained in the high teens and even increased, which is reassuring that its investments have not been in vain.

No track record to judge this company. Investing into this company is based on pure speculation and blind-folded too. 😀😀😀

You can always wait 5 years to have another look at this counter, and it will still be alright for your investing. Patience is so important in investing.

(RM m)
FISCAL YEAR ENDING 2023 2022 2021 2020 2019
NET INCOME 487.65 398.66 315.94 268.66 242.47
FREE CASH FLOW 491.76 228.93 79.66 242.61 83.84

CAPITAL EMPLOYED 2,919.50 2,617.00 2,504.00 2,467.00
ROCE 16.70% 15.23% 12.62% 10.89%

TOTAL EQUITY (Book Value) 2,209.00 2,090.00 2,016.00 1,904.00 1,872.00


CASH AND EQUIVALENT 84.00 399.00 252.00 215.00 76.00
ST DEBT & CURRENT PORTION OF LT DEBT 145.00 141.00 161.00 162.00 158.00
LT DEBT 737.00 722.00 412.00 423.00 325.00
TOTAL DEBT 882.00 863.00 573.00 585.00 483.00
NET CASH (DEBT) -798.00 -464.00 -321.00 -370.00 -407.00

calvintaneng knows very little about this company's business. Not within his circle of competence. In fact, the whole plantation sector, calvintaneng talks a lot of non-sense.

>>>
Public bank abandoned the ship.

KUALA LUMPUR: Public Investment Bank (PublicInvest) is ceasing its coverage of TSH Resources Bhd due to the company's limited growth prospects and sluggish fresh-fruit bunches (FFB) yield.

The firm said it is reallocating its internal sources to other sectors.
>>>>



>>>
In a research note today, PublicInvest said FFB production growth is anticipated to be subdued this year due to the sale of plantation assets in Indonesia and Sabah (13,214 hectares) over the past two years.

"Additionally, the average age of the plantations is increasing (currently 13.4 years old), and FFB yield remains low due to insufficient replanting activities in recent years," PublicInvest said.

Additionally, TSH Resources encountered significant crude palm oil (CPO) taxes when exporting its CPO products due to the current unfavourable CPO export tax policy in Indonesia.
>>>>

While calvintaneng promoted TSH from 1.78 to 1.05 (today), he simultaneously demoted DLady from 20.00 to 36 (today).

Last 52 wk price range 20 to 36.

Today, closing price RM 36.

😀

Last 52 wk price range 20 to 36.

Today, closing price RM 36.

Debt increasing.
FCF anaemic.

Zetrix co-founder Wong Thean Soon said it is thrilled to partner with Web3Labs, a trusted leader in the Web3 space.

“This collaboration will add immense value to Zetrix and provide invaluable support to the burgeoning Web3 ecosystem with key stakeholders in HK.

“Zetrix and its international supernode on China’s national public blockchain, Xinghuo BIF is the natural choice for Web3 decentralised applications (DApps) that serve the objectives of HK Special Administrative Region (SAR) to be a global crypto hub,” he said.

Echoing Wong’s sentiment, Web3Labs chief executive officer Caspar Wong said it is excited to welcome Zetrix as a strategic partner.

“Their commitment to aligning with the HK vision and fostering innovation makes them the perfect platform for building impactful Web3 solutions.

Jan 22, 2024 MyEG Services Bhd’s (MyEG) Zetrix, Web2Labs Hong Kong and Summer Capital are teaming up to to advance Hong Kong’s Web3 initiatives. Blockchain strategy and technology company Web3Labs leverages its network of over 500 partners throughout the Web3 ecosystem including government bodies, institutions, investors, exchanges and media outlets to foster additional growth and innovation facilitated by the city state. The key objectives of this collaboration among others is to enhance Zetrix as the preferred Layer-1 platform for blockchain applications aligned with the HK’s government’s Web3 vision and catalysed by further collaborations with industry and business communities.

Jan 22, 2024 MyEG Services Bhd’s (MyEG) Zetrix, Web2Labs Hong Kong and Summer Capital are teaming up to to advance Hong Kong’s Web3 initiatives. Blockchain strategy and technology company Web3Labs leverages its network of over 500 partners throughout the Web3 ecosystem including government bodies, institutions, investors, exchanges and media outlets to foster additional growth and innovation facilitated by the city state. The key objectives of this collaboration among others is to enhance Zetrix as the preferred Layer-1 platform for blockchain applications aligned with the HK’s government’s Web3 vision and catalysed by further collaborations with industry and business communities.

The group continues to record commendable earnings growth premised on the Zetrix platform. The progressive effort to introduce new services using blockchain technology would further translate into better yield for the group. Note that this is on top of the existing e-government services which serve a good earnings base for the group. At the current rate, the house is of view that there is a high chance that earnings from Zetrix would take over the overall income from e-government services.

The group continues to record commendable earnings growth premised on the Zetrix platform. The progressive effort to introduce new services using blockchain technology would further translate into better yield for the group. Note that this is on top of the existing e-government services which serve a good earnings base for the group. At the current rate, the house is of view that there is a high chance that earnings from Zetrix would take over the overall income from e-government services.

Myeg’s 1QFY24 earnings grew strongly by +47.2%yoy to RM156.0m. This was mainly attributable to the stronger growth in revenue as well as the decline in operating expenses (-10.7%yoy). The improvement in revenue to RM232.9m was mainly supported by: i) contribution from Zetrix blockchain platform; and ii) contribution from the sale of Zetrix tokens.