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Posted by i3gambler > 2 days ago | Report Abuse

On behalf of the Board of Directors of ICAP, RHB Investment Bank and Astramina Advisory Sdn Bhd wish to announce that based on the valid DRFs received by the Share Registrar, ICAP will be issuing 1,036,359 DRP Shares pursuant to the DRP. The DRP Shares to be issued represent 21.85% of the total 4,742,949 DRP Shares that would have been issued had all the entitled shareholders of ICAP elected to reinvest the Electable Portion into DRP Shares.

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78%+ chose to receive the dividends.

Most of the gains are made in only a few stocks which I had the conviction to buy and held on for a very long time. These are the true compounders that gave the majority of the returns over the decades. The power of compounding its truly amazing. Another doubling and it is a very huge sum at the end of a long compounding period.

How good has been my stock selections?

Reviewing my portfolio over the decades, how do I grade myself as a stock picker?
Probably average (maybe even slightly below average), this would be my humble assessment.

I did have a few losers in my portfolio. Thankfully, the losses are small in comparison to the overall.
There are also many non-performers. Some, I have probably held on for too long.
Thankfully, I did pick some stocks that have given the majority of the total returns of the portfolio. They have grown and are multi-baggers. An element of luck is definitely in play too.

Yes, temperament is more important than intelligence. You need some intelligence but more importantly, you should have very sound investing philosophy and reasonable emotional approach to the stock market.

I will not share too much on this company for now, but that I remain positive on Dutch Lady.

The Dot-Com crash in US in 2000 affected the American investors severely. Buffett was not caught in the exuberance and though underperforming during the Dot-Com bubble, not only survived but outrun the returns of all the other investors post Dot-Com.

Post Dot-Com crash, value investing (as practised by Buffett) became fashionable again. Many books and internet articles appear on this topic. These books were also available in our local bookshops.

What I learned in post 1997?

A housewife had a portfolio of penny stocks. They were all down 90% or so. They were all gruesome companies except one. Holding onto these stocks made here felt comfortable but actually was costly, in terms of opportunity costs. She was advised to sell and cut her losses, except one. She was advised not to indulge in stocks in future without guidance. Luckily for her, she had only about less than RM20,000 invested.

Another man willing shared that he lost everything in 1997. Everything meant including his savings in the Asian Financial Crisis. I could see his mental state was much affected, though he had come to term with his loss. At his early 50s or so, it was financial disaster. He shared that he was totally staying away from stocks. His grown up children, early in their careers, are helping out with his household expenses.

The bull run of the 1990s made a lot of people behave differently. The greed for short term money and easy money, resulted in many to give up a stable but reasonable career for the short term opportunities at that time. The mee seller spent her time in the stock broker's place, the teacher gave up teaching to do multilevel selling and the accountants became remisiers. When the crashed came, these people lost a great deal.

Despite the massive drop in share prices in the Asian Financial Crisis in the late 1990s, and no good knowledge of investing, my portfolio survived. Luck was on my side. My advisor on stock was a very capable senior person. He had recommended stocks to me at various times, perhaps, 3 or 4 times per year. My portfolio was in the negative (showed losses) in the Asian Financial Crisis in 1997. But I was well placed, with also a lot of cash, as from 1994 to 1997, I was fearful of the market due to its exuberance. When the crash came in 1997, I invested more money but the prices continued to fall (painful for the short term players but on hindsight and experience, the short term pain turned out to be a great teacher for those wishing to play long term).

By 2002, my portfolio showed significant gains. Dividends accumulated contributed significantly also to the total gain. Many of the shares that crashed, recovered, as least back to my buying prices. I realised that when the price returned back to your initial buying price, you would have made a positive return given the dividends received. This also meant all the returns were due to dividends received from this particular stock in 2002.

Short term versus long term

Always audit your investment journey and returns. You will learn a lot from this activity too.
My investment is sloth like. I bought in big amount, generally held for long time and hardly ever sell.
This must have been influenced by my experience in the first decade of my investment.
How you behave during the market fluctuations can only be learned through experiencing them! :-)

Short term versus long term

The first stock I bought was interesting. I cannot even remember the name already. It was the beginning of the bull run of the 1990s. I was reacting to its share price rise and big volumes. I don't even know what business it was doing, although I had some idea, but not enough to be a safe investor. Anyway, it was a "beginners luck". It went up maybe 50% of so in a very short time, maybe weeks. I sold. My remisier congratulated me. :-) But it was the absolutely wrong way to invest.

In the 1990s, there were few good investment books in the bookshop. The internet was in its infancy. I bought and read many books, but they were the wrong ones on accounting, economics and some personal finance.

Reviewing my decades of experience in investing in stocks.

Everyone approach investing in stocks in different ways, much influenced by their learning, past and on-going experiences. They are also affected by personal knowledges of what affected their parents, friends and others in their investments.

TSH

What is its ROE?
What is its NTA?
What is your required return on your investment?
What is your fair price for TSH, given your required return on your investment?

When you answer these questions, you will arrive at your fair price for TSH.

👍🙏

Yes, our Singaporean friend is the best. 😀

He promoted Netx for 2 years, telling all that it will go from 2 sen to 20 sen very soon after his eagle eye touch.

Alsom I observed our Singaporean friend promoted TSH at 1.87 and wrote that it was so cheap ... just looked at the CEO buying non-stop in tranches. :-)

Total return from Petgas from 2014 to 2024

Stock Price Analysis:

In 2014, PETGAS was trading around RM21–RM23 per share.
As of November 2024, PETGAS trades at approximately RM17.80 per share​

This represents a price decline of about 18–22% over 10 years.

Dividends:
PETGAS has consistently paid dividends, often yielding between 4–5% annually. The payouts were generally between RM0.64–RM0.88 per share annually, depending on the year. Over 10 years, the cumulative dividends are estimated at around RM7–RM8 per share​

Total Return Estimation:
Capital Loss: A decrease of around RM4–RM6 per share from the 2014 price.
Dividend Gain: Adding back RM7–RM8 from dividends results in a net gain of approximately RM1–RM3 per share over the 10 years.

When factoring in the initial investment, this translates to an annualized return of approximately 0.5–1.5% per year, driven mostly by dividends rather than capital appreciation. The returns are modest and highlight the importance of dividend income for PETGAS investors.

Total Return: Combining price appreciation with dividend payouts, the total return per share for an investor from 1994 to 2024 is substantial. Assuming reinvestment of dividends, the compounded annual growth rate (CAGR) of the investment would likely exceed 8% annually.

Investors who purchased PETGAS shares in 2004 and held them until 2024 achieved an approximate total return of 363% over 20 years, primarily driven by consistent dividends and significant capital appreciation.

My fair price for TSH is 72 sen per share. 😉

There is little to choose between PBB, MBB, CIMB and HLB.
However, today, one of these four is relatively a better value amongst them.

Banking Sector

PBB ROE 11.99% P/B 1.53 NTA 2.90 P/E 12.79
MBB ROE 10.97% P/B 1.36 NTA 7.51 P/E 12.35
CIMB ROE 10.79 % P/B 1.3 NTA 5.449 P/E 12.01
HLBANK ROE 10.50% P/B 1.13 NTA 18.19 P/E 10.64
HLFG ROE 10.50% P/B 0.70 NTA 26.53 P/E 6.64
AMBANK ROE 10.11% P/B 0.9 NTA 6.03 P/E 8.91
ABMB ROE 10% P/B 1.06 NTA 4.630 P/E 10.61

RHB ROE 8.49% P/B 0.92 NTA 7.265 P/E 10.7
BIMB ROE 7.44% P/B 0.81 NTA 3.350 P/E 10.87
AFFIN ROE 3.59% P/B 0.61 NTA 4.80 P/E 16.93

UNITED PLANTATION

The investor’s total return from 2014 to 2023, combining capital appreciation and dividends, would be approximately 142.7% if dividends were not reinvested. If dividends were reinvested, the return would likely be higher due to compounding effects.

My assessment (caveat emptor: please make your own analysis and decision)

UTDPLT and KMLOONG are trading at fair prices.
JTIASA is trading at fair price / slightly underpriced (by not much).
TSH is overpriced.

Great Good Gruesome

It is better to buy a great company at a good price than to buy a good company at a great price. Avoid the gruesome company.

PLANTATION STOCKS (VALUATION)

UTDPLT ROE 25.4% P/B 4.29 NTA 6.950 P/E 16.90
KMLOONG ROE 18.00% P/B 2.79 NTA 0.920 P/E 15.52
RSAWIT ROE 16.37% P/B 1.29 NTA 0.19 P/E 7.88
IOI ROE 12.63% P/B 2.02 NTA 1.910 P/E 15.96
SOP ROE 10.78% P/B 0.82 NTA 4.09 P/E 7.65

JTIASA ROE 9.38% P/B 0.78 NTA 1.60 P/E 8.27
THPLANT ROE 7.81% P/B 0.80 NTA 0.830 P/E 10.26

TSH ROE 5.06% P/B 0.84 NTA 1.420 P/E 16.57
CEPAT ROE 4.49% P/B 0.55 NTA 1.300 P/E 12.24
KLK ROE 4.30% P/B 1.64 NTA 12.5 P/E 38.13
UMCCA ROE 4.25% P/B 0.75 NTA 6.880 P/E 17.70
NSOP ROE 4.20% P/B 0.46 NTA 8.950 P/E 11.03

In his 2022 Berkshire Hathaway Annual Letter, Warren Buffett reflects on his mistakes and successes over 58 years of managing Berkshire Hathaway. He acknowledges that most of his capital-allocation decisions have been average, with a few standout successes and some bad decisions salvaged by luck.

Buffett highlights the dual nature of capitalism, where creative destruction creates both winners and losers. He emphasizes the occasional opportunity in publicly traded stocks to buy great businesses at attractive prices, while noting that controlled businesses are rarely available at bargain prices.

Buffett attributes Berkshire’s success to a few key decisions and a long-term investment advantage.


Here’s an excerpt from the letter:

Over the years, I have made many mistakes. Consequently, our extensive collection of businesses currently consists of a few enterprises that have truly extraordinary economics, many that enjoy very good economic characteristics, and a large group that are marginal.

Along the way, other businesses in which I have invested have died, their products unwanted by the public. Capitalism has two sides: The system creates an ever-growing pile of losers while concurrently delivering a gusher of improved goods and services. Schumpeter called this phenomenon “creative destruction.”

One advantage of our publicly-traded segment is that — episodically — it becomes easy to buy pieces of wonderful businesses at wonderful prices.

It’s crucial to understand that stocks often trade at truly foolish prices, both high and low. “Efficient” markets exist only in textbooks. In truth, marketable stocks and bonds are baffling, their behavior usually understandable only in retrospect.
Controlled businesses are a different breed. They sometimes command ridiculously higher prices than justified but are almost never available at bargain valuations. Unless under duress, the owner of a controlled business gives no thought to selling at a panic-type valuation.

At this point, a report card from me is appropriate: In 58 years of Berkshire management, most of my capital-allocation decisions have been no better than so-so. In some cases, also, bad moves by me have been rescued by very large doses of luck. (Remember our escapes from near-disasters at USAir and Salomon? I certainly do.)

Our satisfactory results have been the product of about a dozen truly good decisions — that would be about one every five years — and a sometimes-forgotten advantage that favors long-term investors such as Berkshire.

👉 Read the full letter here: https://acquirersmultiple.com/.../warren-buffett-most-of.../

I came across one person who got scammed just over the phone. Some are very vulnerable indeed. Have any studies being done on the modus operandi by the scammers (probably yes) and on the vulnerable characteristics of those scammed?

My accounting knowledge is not so good. I stay away from those companies with accounts I find complicated and difficult to comprehend. I thank SSLee for pointing out the finer points on accounts which are remarkable and educational.

CPO prices reached a 2-year high of approximately RM4,950/tonne in early November 2024, up from approximately
RM3,650/tonne at the start of year 2024 (source: Malaysia Palm Oil Board).

In the medium term, several factors are expected to support CPO prices, including tight supplies due to reduced production in Indonesia, demand from Indonesia’s transition to the B40 biofuel mandate by 2025, and overall higher global demand.

Nonetheless, CPO price volatility remains a concern, likely influenced by demand and inventory levels among key importing countries. Seasonal nature of palm oil production and competitive pressures from alternative edible oils, such soybean, rapeseed and sunflower oils, could also impact the industry.

An investor who bought Scientex shares in 2014 and held them through 2024 would have experienced significant total returns, driven by both share price appreciation and dividend payouts.

Share Price Appreciation: In 2014, Scientex's share price was approximately RM1.21 per share (adjusted for stock splits). By 2024, the share price had risen to around RM4.50. This translates to a gain of approximately 300%+ in share price alone​

Dividend Income: Scientex has consistently paid dividends over the years, growing from 2.99 sen per share in 2014 to 10 sen per share in recent years. Cumulatively, dividends over the decade add significantly to total returns, especially for long-term holders​

Total Return: Combining share price growth and dividend payouts, the total return on investment over 10 years is estimated to exceed 400%. This indicates strong performance for long-term investors​.

Scientex’s growth was primarily driven by its dual focus on manufacturing (flexible plastic packaging) and property development, enabling steady expansion across both segments.

Padini’s current price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio indicates it is fairly valued. Padini as a stable company with moderate growth potential and consistent returns for investors​
​
Padini is a fundamentally strong company with a proven track record, appealing to investors seeking stable growth and income through dividends.

However, it may not offer explosive growth due to the mature nature of its domestic market.
Investors should weigh its solid financials against risks like market competition and economic sensitivity.

Total return of Padini to its investors over last 10 years

Share Price 10 Years Ago: In late 2014, Padini’s share price was approximately RM1.50 after adjusting for corporate actions like stock splits and bonuses​
Current Share Price: As of November 2024, Padini's share price is RM3.43​

Dividends Paid: Over the last 10 years, Padini has consistently paid dividends. A conservative estimate based on historical payouts suggests cumulative dividends exceeding RM1.00 per share.

When you keep your investing philosophy simple, you will see with clarity.

If an investor purchased KLCCP Stapled Group shares 10 years ago in 2014 and held them until today, they would have gained through both capital appreciation and dividends.

Capital Gains:
In 2014, KLCCP Stapled Group shares traded around RM6.55.
As of November 2024, the shares are trading at approximately RM8.00.
This represents a capital gain of about RM1.45 per share, or roughly 22.1% over the 10 years.

Dividends:
KLCCP Stapled Group has a strong track record of consistent dividend payouts. Over the last year, the total dividend per stapled security was 40.5 sen, and the average dividend over the past decade has been around 38 sen annually.
Cumulatively, dividends over 10 years would amount to approximately RM3.80 to RM4.05 per share.

Total Return:
Combining the capital gains and dividend returns:

Total return per share = RM1.45 (capital gain) + ~RM3.90 (dividends) = ~RM5.35.
For a 10-year period, this equates to a total return of ~81.7% or an annualized return of ~6.2%.
These figures exclude transaction costs and assume dividends were not reinvested. The consistent dividend yield and stable capital growth make KLCCP Stapled Group an attractive choice for long-term, income-focused investors.

A stapled group refers to a corporate structure where two or more separate entities, typically a property company and a real estate investment trust (REIT), are legally and operationally "stapled" together to trade as a single unit on the stock exchange. Investors cannot trade shares in one entity without the other—they are inseparable, hence the term "stapled."

Key Features of a Stapled Group:
Combination of Entities:

Typically includes:
A REIT, which owns income-generating real estate assets.
A property management or development company, which develops, manages, and operates the assets.

In the case of KLCCP Stapled Group, it includes:
KLCC Property Holdings Berhad (the property development and management company).
KLCC REIT (the REIT component holding income-generating assets like office buildings and retail spaces).

Single Trading Unit:

Shares of both entities are "stapled" and traded together as a single unit on the stock exchange (e.g., Bursa Malaysia).

Benefits to Investors:

Stable Income: The REIT component provides steady income from rental properties.
Growth Potential: The property management/development company drives value through asset enhancement and property development.
Tax Efficiency: REITs often enjoy tax advantages, such as income tax exemptions on distributed profits, benefiting investors.

Operational Synergy:

The combination allows both entities to work together effectively, leveraging the REIT's steady cash flow and the development company's growth opportunities.

For KLCCP Stapled Group, this structure ensures that investors gain exposure to a combination of stable income (from KLCC REIT's rental assets) and growth potential (from KLCC Property Holdings Berhad's development and management activities).

For those who love to invest in properties, this company is the best in this sector in Bursa.

By leveraging its prime assets and expertise in property management, KLCCP consistently delivers strong performance and shareholder value.

Earnings for this financial year should exceed RM 1b. A consistent dividend payer. At present price, its DY is better than the banks interest rates.

Jaks
The clash of the titans between KYY and others.
Others won.

Hmmm .....
Price is higher today.
Sellers only letting go at higher prices.

Kim Loong Resources appears to be a stable, income-generating company with a focus on sustainability and responsible practices. It may appeal to dividend investors or those seeking a low-risk, long-term holding. However, its performance is closely tied to commodity cycles, and potential investors should consider this risk before making an investment decision.

Over the past decade, Kim Loong Resources has consistently generated strong free cash flow, driven by solid operational performance. In 2023, the company reported a free cash flow of approximately RM 149 million​

The trend has been relatively stable, with fluctuations due to market conditions such as commodity prices. Over the years, Kim Loong's focus on maintaining efficient operations has allowed it to sustain healthy cash flow, supporting dividends and capital expenditures.

Insas may be attractive to value investors, especially due to its strong cash position and low valuation metrics. However, concerns around profitability and operational efficiency might make it less appealing to growth-focused investors. Always make your own decision by conducting further research based on your specific investment goals and risk tolerance.

This man cleared 1000 acres to plant oil palm. He used cash and bank borrowings. In the initial few years, he kept pumping money to clear the land and to plant in stages over a few years. The initially planted oil palm trees matured and started producing revenues. However, he continues to pump in his own money. During the very good CPO prices 2 years ago, he was much relieved and able to extract some cash out of his plantation. When the price of CPO retreated, he continues to pump in small amounts to complete the planting. Two years ago, he leased another 500 acres for the same objectives.

When do you think this man's plantation will generate positive free cash flows?

TSH Resources Berhad has a total land bank of approximately 91,489 hectares. Out of this, about 43,000 hectares are planted with oil palm. The majority of its plantations are located in Kalimantan, Indonesia, which accounts for a substantial portion of its productive acreage. The remaining land includes areas in Malaysia, primarily in Sabah, and unplanted reserves designated for future expansion

SSLee 👍

Live your life and make it the most beautiful story ever. 🙏👏

You should be RISK LOVING and yet completely AVERSE TO RUIN.

The idea is that you have to take risk to get ahead, but no risk that can wipe you out is ever wroth taking. The odds are in your fvour when playing Russian roulette. But the downside is not worth the potential upside. There is no margin of safety that can compensate for the risk.

Same with money. The odds of many lucrative things are in your favour. But if something has 95% odss of being right, the 5% odds of being wrong means you will almost certainly experience the downside at some time in your life. And if the cost of the downside is RUIN, the upside the other 95% of the time likely ISN'T WORTH THE RISK, no matter how appealing it looks.

LEVERAGE pushes routine risks into something capable of producing ruin. The danger is that rational optimism most of the time masks the odd of ruin some of the time. The result is we systematically underestimate risk. In a market crash, those with high leverage had a double wipeout. Not only were they left broke, but being wiped out erased every opportunity to get back in the game at the very moment opportunity was ripe. They were done.


[In this forum, we observed an investor in Jaks who got wiped out due to leverage. He sold assets to cover his margins.]

Warren Buffett and Charlie Munger had a third member in their group 40 years ago when they first started. They made investments together. He was Rick Guerin.

Warren said, " Charlie and I always knew that we would become incredibly wealthy. We were not in a hurry to get wealthy; we knew it would happen. Rick was just as smart as us, but he was in a hurry."

In the 1973-1974 downturn, Rick was levered with margin loans. The stock market went down almost 70% in those two years, and he got margin calls. He sold his Berkshire stock to Warren at under $40 a piece. Rick was forced to sell because he was levered.

Charlie, Warren and Rick were equally skilled at getting wealthy. But Warren and Charlie had the added skill of staying wealthy. Over time, this is the skill that matters most.

Jesse Livermore was another who was very good at getting wealthy, and equally bad at staying wealthy.

Getting mone is one thing. Keeping it is another.

Getting money requires taking risks, being optimistic, and putting yourself out there.

Keeping money requires the opposite of taking risk. It requires humility, and fear that what you have made can be taken away from you just as fast. It requires FRUGALITY and an acceptance that at least some of what you have made is attributable to luck, as past success cannot be relied upon to repeat indefinitely. Always be afraid. Only the PARANOID survive.

To summarise money success in one work, it would be "survival"

Among the many participants in this forum, Philip is outstanding. :-)

The market price swings like a pendulum.

By market timing, you buy when you think the price will be swinging upwards and sell when you think the price will be swinging downwards.

On the other hand, value investors tend to price the market, buying when the it is undervalued and may sell when it is overvalued.

Pricing the stock

The 2 ways:

1. By pricing we mean the endeavor to buy stocks when they are quoted below their fair value and to sell them when they rise above such value.

2. A *less ambitious* form of pricing is the simple effort to make sure that when you buy you do not pay too much for your stocks. This may suffice for the defensive investor, whose emphasis is on long-pull holding; but as such it represents an *essential minimum* of attention to market levels.

We are convinced that the intelligent investor can derive satisfactory results from pricing of either type.

Why do you Sell and When?

1. Reducing serious loss

When the fundamentals of a stock have deteriorated, sell to protect your portfolio.
This decision should be make quickly based on the facts and situations, in order to keep your losses small.


2. Taking profit

Profit should be realised from sales of stocks in the following situations:
(I) when the stock is obviously overpriced, or
(II) when the sale of the stock frees the capital to be reinvested into another stock with potentially better return.

Not taking profit in the above situations can harm your portfolio and compromise its returns.
In other circumstances, let the winners run.


3. Underperforming stocks

Underperforming stocks should also be sold early.
Hanging onto underperforming stocks is costly too.
There is the opportunity cost that the capital can be better employed for higher return.
Also, hanging onto these lack-lustre stocks reduces the overall return of your portfolio.

(KISS version, Keep It Simple & Safe)

Strategies for buying and selling.

For buying (ABC):

A. Assess Quality, Management and Valuation (QMV)

B. Buy good quality stocks.

C. Buy these stocks at a discount (Margin of Safety)

(If you select your stocks carefully, often one can hold them for long periods. The idea is to allow compounding over the long period to work in your favour.)


For selling (1,2,3,4):

1. If you need cash for emergency. (But then, hopefully, you will have separate money for such emergencies. The cash invested into the market should be separate.)

2. You will need to sell URGENTLY (QUICKLY) if there is something wrong with the fundamental of your stock (example: fraudulent accounting, etc). At other instances, you do have the time to SELL at leisure.

3. Your stock has gone up too high. By your assessment, at that price the upside return is less, but the downside risk is more, then you may wish to sell to REINVEST INTO ANOTHER STOCK WITH MORE FAVOURABLE UPSIDE REWARD/DOWNSIDE RISK RATIO.

4. On occasions, you have identified a very good BARGAIN, you may wish to sell some of your stocks to REINVEST into these stocks to capture a higher upside/downside reward risk ratio that these stocks offer.

Defensive Portfolio Management = 2.
This is to prevent harm to the portfolio.
Urgent attention needed.

Offensive Portfolio Management = 3 & 4.
This is to optimise returns of the portfolio.
Have the time to sell at leisure.

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Posted by godhand > 21 hours ago | Report Abuse

Timing of buying and selling is the most critical decision you need to make if you are not as rich as Philip and want to outperform the market

If you are as rich as Philip then no worry you can continues average down your cost at the down cycle and if you do that long enough then for sure the up cycle will come one day and your stocks start to perform again


Or u can just avoid buying cyclical business. life dont have to be tough
>>>


https://myinvestingnotes.blogspot.com/2008/10/market-fluctuations-as-guide-to.html

https://myinvestingnotes.blogspot.com/2008/10/market-fluctuations-as-guide-to.html

Two ways to profit from the market swings: Timing or Pricing


Since common stocks, even of investment grade, are subject to recurrent and wide fluctuations in their prices, the intelligent investor should be interested in the possibilities of profiting from these pendulum swings. There are two possible ways by which he may try to do this:

- the way of timing and
- the way of pricing.


By timing we mean the endeavor to anticipate the action of the stock market—

- to buy or hold when the future course is deemed to be upward,
- to sell or refrain from buying when the course is downward.


By pricing we mean the endeavor
- to buy stocks when they are quoted below their fair value and
- to sell them when they rise above such value.

A less ambitious form of pricing is the simple effort to make sure that when you buy you do not pay too much for your stocks.
This may suffice for the defensive investor, whose emphasis is on long-pull holding; but as such it represents an essential minimum of attention to market levels.


We are convinced that the intelligent investor can derive satisfactory results from pricing of either type.

We are equally sure that if he places his emphasis on timing, in the sense of forecasting, he will end up as a speculator and with a speculator’s financial results.

This distinction may seem rather tenuous to the layman, and it is not commonly accepted on Wall Street. As a matter of business practice, or perhaps of thoroughgoing conviction, the stock brokers and the investment services seem wedded to the principle that both investors and speculators in common stocks should devote careful attention to market forecasts.

>>>
Posted by godhand > 6 hours ago | Report Abuse

Timing of buying and selling is the most critical decision you need to make if you are not as rich as Philip and want to outperform the market

If you are as rich as Philip then no worry you can continues average down your cost at the down cycle and if you do that long enough then for sure the up cycle will come one day and your stocks start to perform again


Or u can just avoid buying cyclical business. life dont have to be tough
>>>


Your investing will be affected by your past experiences and this is obvious.

You will need to develop your own investing philosophy which can deliver a reasonable return on your investing to meet your investing objectives for the time period you are aiming at. Perhaps, your investing lifetime is many decades.

The importance of sticking to your investing philosophy without being frightened out of it by a bull or bear market cannot be emphasized.

How good is your investing philosophy and your ability to stick to it, in the ups and downs of the market place?

Investing is a lot based on temperament, a bit of mathematics, some intelligence and the ability to stay aloof from the herd (the herd is often wrong in the long run).