Posted by witan > 2020-12-17 18:09 | Report Abuse

Nice analysis. Thanks for sharing. At last someone who share with some facts

Posted by trueinvestor > 2020-12-17 19:00 | Report Abuse

Agreed....

Posted by super_newbie > 2020-12-19 01:33 | Report Abuse

I like your analysis, very informative. Anyhow, FY21Q1 total sales volume is 17.97b pieces and 43% is NBR. With 56% Revenue derived from NBR, the ASP for NBR (included regular and spot) is at c. USD85. I think this aligned with the ASP guidance and explained the differences occurs in your analysis.

Posted by BenTan000 > 2020-12-19 10:45 | Report Abuse

super_newbie, thank you for your comment!

I indeed found the same discrepancy just yesterday (after I published the article). I hadn't seen the full presentation briefing before that so I was relying on outdated data. Just for everyone's reference, the presentation is here: https://www.topglove.com/App_ClientFile/7ff8cb3f-fbf6-42e7-81da-6db6a0ab2ef4/Assets/corporate_calendar/1QFY21%20Briefing%20slides_091220..pdf

The sales volume figure is particularly important and I couldn't find it elsewhere, so I had to derive it from the assumed production capacity. In this case, the production capacity for the quarter came at 19.125 billion pieces based on the announced 85% utilization rate.

In any case, I still believe the company's book revenue and corresponding profits will be running 1 to 2 quarters behind the actual timing of the placements of the orders because of the significant lead times for deliveries.

Posted by Morpheus61 > 2020-12-19 10:51 | Report Abuse

Hi BenTan,

Should'nt the Booking of revenue & profits be at the time of Raising the Invoice ? Given lead time of 510 days for NBR & 340 days for NR, 510 days equates to 5+ quarters & 340 days equates to 4 ?

Posted by super_newbie > 2020-12-19 11:39 | Report Abuse

@BenTan000, yes agreed with you. Nevertheless, we knew that the lower asp backlog order is cleared, ASP for regular order of NBR likely priced above USD75/1000 pieces from next quarter onward. Same as Supermax, I believe blended ASP will hit above USD85 as well for Oct-Dec quarter.

Posted by BenTan000 > 2020-12-19 12:19 | Report Abuse

Hi Morpheus61, thank you for your comment!

Yes, that is correct based on the explanation given in the company's annual report (and based on GAAP). What I was trying to figure out was more in line with how much that delay in reflecting ASPs in the books is in practice, actual delivery times aside.

I tried to do that, because I wanted to know how long after the major part of the impact of the COVID crisis we could expect to see "crisis" level revenues (and profits) in company's books. As super_newbie mentioned, with other things taken into account, it will likely still be at least 1 quarter into the future, after the crisis level deliveries are cleared.

Posted by Sales > 2020-12-20 21:36 | Report Abuse

Hi BenTan000! Thank you for the comments. Great analyst.

Posted by sikusiku > 2021-01-13 19:29 | Report Abuse

Excellent analysis, Ben.

Would you be willing to provide me with your email so I correspond with you on some things that I was wondering about which I still haven't gotten any clarity on from the company itself?

It makes me thing there's a likelihood you might have some ideas unlike me just fumbling about.

Posted by Ben Tan > 2021-01-13 19:40 | Report Abuse

Sikusiku I messaged you privately.