BTW, the actual profit is RM 1.4 billion. So you are not right on track. You are just as bad as the other analysts. But this doesn't matter. All you can think about a win is that your prediction comes true. But you can't even predict accurately beyond 1 quarter, even if u get it right for one quarter, which you didn't, you won't be able to get it right the next 3 quarters. So you have zero advantage.
No wonder they said pen can kill. It is either you are ignorant of how much ASP will drop or you have math problem.
First of all, ASP might (I wont say definitely) drop to pre-covid level. If you google, most agreed that glove price at the highest is 4x pre covid level. $90/4 = $22.5 per 1000 gloves
Now work the math.
If $22.5 , then 1 piece is $0.0225 48b x $0.0225 x RM4.1 = RM4.43b revenue
if $25, then 1 piece is $0.025 48b x $0.025 x RM4.1 = RM4.92b revenue
if $30, then 1 piece is $ 0.03 48b x $0.03 x RM4.1 = RM5.9b revenue
Would you mind to share how much profit margin Supermax will get? 80%?
For comparison, lets just say for FY2021, average price for Supermax sales is $70 for the whole year.
if $70, then 1 piece is $0.07 26b (current capacity) x $0.07 x RM4.1 = RM7.46b revenue (kinda close to the estimate)
Even with double the capacity, Supermax would not earn anywhere close to RM4b even if the ASP is $30. That is why their shares is being dump.
You havent even taking into consideration how much excess capacity once covid is over. Dont forget pre-covid, utilisation rate for most glove makers are just around 60-70%. Lets just say Supermax is really popular for whatever reason and they managed to retain 70% utilisation rate of 48b capacity. Whatever result I posted x 70% would be a figure much lower than RM4b revenue. So tell me how do you expect RM4b profit for FY2022?
It doesnt matter win or lose money, this pandemic together with glove rally will surely be a unforgettable moment for all winners and losers in gloves.
It doesn't make sense that a company generating 4 billion profit for the next 2 to 3 years will have a pathetic 3.5 pe. Mr market will decide the share price.The rest wait patiently.
Where got right on target? Read those analyst reports and you shall find their disappointment hidden inside. Sayonara to those who bought at the recent hike and still holding the falling knife.
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Posted by brian3381 > 2021-05-05 22:26 | Report Abuse
Bla bla bla. Stil wan to denied?