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16 comment(s). Last comment by enning22 2022-05-14 00:45


50,266 posts

Posted by calvintaneng > 2022-05-12 06:14 | Report Abuse

Rhb research has given it's argument palm oil prices might not sustain due to Ukraine war ceasing and Indonesia resume it's palm oil exports

These are skin deep assumptions of a bias mind

Why Calvin thinks this is shallow calculations
There are deeper underlying factors why Vege oil is in great shortage

1. River in the Sky factor

The destruction of Amazon forest has released a body of water in the sky....causing havoc as 10 Typhoons hit HEILONGJIANG the Breadbasket of China

(3 Super typhoons reached heilongjiang and JILIN in year 2020....wiping out China's soybean and corn

leading to petrifying fear of a repeat of the 1960s famine
Thus China has stockpiled more than enough food at the expense of all others


50,266 posts

Posted by calvintaneng > 2022-05-12 06:16 | Report Abuse

The La Lina factor

Too dry in Canada, USA highplains, Brazil, Paraguay and Argentina have affected canola, soybean and corn production

Even now La Lina is in play again


50,266 posts

Posted by calvintaneng > 2022-05-12 06:19 | Report Abuse

While certain parts are too dry India has experienced cyclones, Greece was hit by tornadoes and floods in NSW, Australia have damaged olive, soybean and canola

Even Malaysia Sri Muda experienced a once in a hundred years flood


50,266 posts

Posted by calvintaneng > 2022-05-12 06:22 | Report Abuse

There is a shortage of labourers in Malaysia and certainly we hope Indon labours can return

but take nothing for granted if Covid 19 virus mutates and borders might shut again leading to continual shortfall

This shortfall of workers also affected farmhands in Australia, Europe and elsewhere leading to slower production and shortfall


50,266 posts

Posted by calvintaneng > 2022-05-12 06:29 | Report Abuse

Now ports of Ukraine are shut by Russian blockage so no export of sunflower oil

Russia in turn got embargo against it's canola and sunflower oil exports

With storage full next crop of sunflower will not have storage space if they do get them harvested

We already know planting shortfall is almost 40% due to lack of fertilizer, damaged fields by Russian land mines and destroyed farm equipments

Even if the little sun flower crops could be harvested the destroyed infrar will hamper it's transport

And no certainty that by then even the remaining export route by trains are still intact due to Russian Missile bombing

With both Ukraine and Russia in a war of attrition it might last 4 years (1914 to 1918: 1st WW1) or 6 years (1939 - 1945: WW2


50,266 posts

Posted by calvintaneng > 2022-05-12 06:43 | Report Abuse

last 4 years both Malaysia and Indonesia have stopped converting forest to palm oil

but 4 years world population continues to increase by another 320 millions (one year 1% population growth is 80 million out of 8 billion people

so shortfall will grow


50,266 posts

Posted by calvintaneng > 2022-05-12 06:50 | Report Abuse

while the world advances more and more farmlands will be converted to housing , industries and other developments causing food crisis

1. productive farm lands are turned into thriving housing enclaves. that was Why Kulim taken private to build two thriving housing estates in Pengerang

in Batu kawan, Penang, demand for Tech park and housing have taken up chunks of lands where palm oil once thrived

in Johor Kulai bplant just sold lands to ytl power for conversion into data center and solar farm

over in Indonesia there buy palm oil lands from Tsh in Bulugan Regency to build world biggest Green tech park

in Kutai Indonesia is turning palm oil land to a New Admin Capital


50,266 posts

Posted by calvintaneng > 2022-05-12 06:52 | Report Abuse

Kutai like Putrajaya will turn into Nusantara
no more palm oil just like punchong no more rubber

puchong ioi mall is a testimony of how agriculture converts to other uses


50,266 posts

Posted by calvintaneng > 2022-05-12 06:57 | Report Abuse

from all above converging on going factors there is no telling how high more vege oil prices can still go up and for how much longer shortfall will last

to still give neutral call on palm oil is just being overcautious

What about other buy calls which now face imminent danger of collapse due to USA raising interest rates?

Should just stop recommending investment as all other stocks are in danger of collapse

Palm oil now at Rm6000 with cost of production below Rm2000 there is no other business on earth earning 200% real cash profits

How to be neutral ?


973 posts

Posted by skoh888 > 2022-05-12 08:42 | Report Abuse

you arrogant cun...calling people with bias mind .Look at yourself in the mirror. Everyone has a right to an opinion. Respect everyone's opinion with an open mind


273 posts

Posted by s3phiroth > 2022-05-12 08:57 | Report Abuse

msia cpo stock level improved because the oversea buyers temporarily stopped buying and consume their domestic cpo stock only. Nevertheless their stock level wont last long indefinitely. They will eventually start buying again.

If u read the latest release from the cargo surveyor, u will know that they started buying fenzy early this month, which is about 40% more than the same period last month.

Posted by everest29029 > 2022-05-12 11:41 | Report Abuse

Indonesia will soon lift the ban on exports sometime this month. It is not that hard to predict what is coming. As soon as Indonesia is flooded with palm oil, they would want to regain the lost market share from Malaysia. A bigger discount would have to be dished out to regain market share.


30,515 posts

Posted by stockraider > 2022-05-12 11:46 | Report Abuse

Lu tau boh ??

At the moment plantation stock are price modestly using sustainable cpo price of Rm 4000 mah!

With the current price above Rm 6000, even if indonesia comeback to the export mkt....that will not affect plantation share price bcos it is not it is not value base on cpo rm 6000 mah!


20,343 posts

Posted by speakup > 2022-05-13 11:40 | Report Abuse

Plantations theme is over. See plantations up a bit only today but O&G Hengyuan and Petronm panic buying again


1,013 posts

Posted by king36 > 2022-05-13 13:23 | Report Abuse

O&G DNEX is dropping too..... drastically.......


2,811 posts

Posted by enning22 > 2022-05-14 00:45 | Report Abuse

even with Indonesia lifted the export ban, but palm oil price still will remain high, for extreme cast still be above 4000 rm. per ton, Indonesia till will keep the 30 bio diessel programe,consume 10 million ton CPO per year. domestic food usage take 8 million ton, Availability of oil for export is not too alarming. the figure could be could be 3o-35 million ton region.

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