The AI and DC rock & roll party is over - prematurely! Surprise shocks from Dow to Nikkei and panic all over the world! All eyes and ears will be focusing on FEDs Sep interest rate reduction, is it BIG enough and FAST enough to avert the recession! All look bad in US, unemployment data, 35 trillion debts, ticking time bomb of Nasdaq and the anytime all out war in Middle East. No fund managers can sleep well at night from now. Warren Buffet, willing to forego $100 mil dividends, already ditched 50% shareholdings in Apple. Best indication is out, what are we waiting for?
Please take VICKY's advise. Do not chase the gap up opening. Now it is based on extremely bad and nervouse sentiments. It will open gap up and slowly it will turn red.
potential profoundly sweet durian runtuh for those dudes with the heart💜, the guts and the smarts to have swooped in like a fearless hawk at 1.80 or lower today, god bless you all
Outlook: After three consecutive quarters of robust growth in FY2024, we anticipate the fourth quarter to progress at a moderate pace. This period of stabilized earnings will position us well as we prepare for further expansion in the next financial year. The Board and Management are confident that FY2024 will set a new benchmark for both revenue and profits, marking a record year for the Group. We attribute this success to our dedicated, growth-minded and forward-looking team, whose commitment has been instrumental in driving our achievements.
(b) FY2024 Revenue PAT Quarter 1 93.7 million 8 million Quarter 2 111.5 million 14 million Quarter 3 135.5 million 20 million The strong growth quarter on quarter is possible through contributions from HDD and EMS sectors. (c) The various segments performed as follows: - HDD in Q3 grew +30% QoQ and +144% YoY Automotive lost -12% QoQ and grew +10% YoY EMS in Q3 grew +54% QoQ and +93% YoY
Now fear and panic grip and reign supreme! With such sentiments, whatever "good things" will not beat the market forces. Best to do, be light or exit and come back later. Of course, if the FED so decide to hold emergency meeting soon to cut rate (substantially) before September, then there is a chance confidence might return. Focus on news on FED.
Even Notion ptofit is 11 fold it is the biggest loser. This is the power of sentiment. Do not underestimate the power of setiment. Anyway all tech stocks are resetting as mentioned 2 weeks ago.
This Notion qtr result is impressive. Not to forget, its mgmt stated way before that only 2H'24 will see growth & will triple its revenue by FY2026 after mid/end Q4'24 China+1 Aluminium start operation. By then, it will be massive growth, hit target of RM3.20 (PE 10) by year 2025. In term of fundamental growth, Notion is structural changing & growing business toward new era of EMS + HDD especially when HDD data center come by year end after all AI DC building ready to operate throughout the world, not only Msia. Market sentiment does driven fear & uncertain but no one know when it will play, this week negative, then next week positive & then later all clear.. it shoot up high then we end up chasing & buying at high end and lose it. We need to invest through dollar averaging if it drop, then hold for massive gain in next half to 1 year.
Seriously what is the appeal for this counter. track record is not impressive, earnings are volatile even before MCO. HDD contract manufacturing for WD isnt exactly rosy. I have known previous WD suppliers who have a very cost tight and high commitment and low margin operating environment.
Quarter on quarter might be improving but track record is not convincing at all and the fact they went to PPE earlier makes u wonder if they are really focused or have a clear long term plan. USD is depreciating and margins are likely to come down.
This QR was already factored into the price as earlier this was trading at a high PE multiple, indicating a lot of insider trading / news, buying ahead of the announcement.
Its revenue up QoQ & impressive result, even AI DC not ready entirely, but still deliver better result Q1'FY24 --> 93.7M, earn 8M (EPS 1.56) Q2'FY24 --> 111.5M, earn 14M (EPS 2.72) Q3'FY24 --> 135.5M, earn 20M (EPS 3.9) Q4'FY24 --> >150M, earn 25M (EPS 4.33) ?? Potential achieve, i believe conservatively can hit to this target
Then Q1'FY25 --> 150M to 180M, earn 30M (EPS 5.0 to 5.4) ??
Then subsequent, every Qtr modestly growing and get higher once EMS China+1 start to kick operate & revenue continue up till end of 2025, it will triple its revenue to RM1bil, then it will be massive opportunity if to buy now & hold for it. As long as Qtr result continue to show good, impressive growing trend, i dont see any issue of it beside too focus on sentiment movement. We can buy dollar averaging to manage market sentiment provided it revenue & earning continue growing.
It's goreng up, not entirely goreng as it support by revenue + earning result continue grow. Imagine from Q1 revenue from 93.7mil to 135mil in 6mths, but its earning grow massively from 1.56sen up to 3.9sen, that 150% gain in operation efficiency, better margin profit to get this better earning profit result, that massive growth to be frank even not factor in AI DC building ready for next HDD/SDD storage business grow by year end. Compare to other EMS companies with average PE 20+ with less to low grow, this Notion is purely more better invest upon vs others. The only driven factor that potential make Notion or even all others stocks in the market is sentiment movement now. As long as Notion mgmt really good in deliver its business revenue & earning quarterly, then any drop we can collect it gradually through dollar averaging.
This book is the result of the author's many years of experience and observation throughout his 26 years in the stockbroking industry. It was written for general public to learn to invest based on facts and not on fantasies or hearsay....
zoizai
1,482 posts
Posted by zoizai > 2024-08-05 18:00 | Report Abuse
Tmr limit up