Posted by kcfan > 2012-08-22 22:46 | Report Abuse

Palm Oil Has First Weekly Gain In Six As Malaysian Exports Climb
Palm oil prices posted its first weekly gain in six, after exports from the world’s third largest producer, Malaysia rebounded as the lowest price in 10 months lured buyers. The November-delivery contract closed at RM2,962 a metric ton after gaining 0.7 percent on the Malaysia Derivatives Exchange, the highest settlement price for the most-active contract since 31 July. Futures on the other hand, advanced 2.8 percent this week after dropping to a 10-month low of RM2,820 on 14 August. For the first half of August, Malaysia’s exports climbed 7.6 percent to 606,449 tons when compared to July in the same period. Exports fell 15.3 percent to 1.3 million tons in July from a month earlier according to the Malaysian Palm Oil Board on 10 August. Palm oil for January delivery rose 1 percent to close at Rmb7,814 a ton on the Dalian Commodity Exchange.

Significance: Malaysia’s palm oil exports began a tentative recovery for the first half of August attributed by higher shipments to China and India. However, there is a slim chance that production growth may be higher than export growth.

Posted by KC Loh > 2012-08-25 13:06 | Report Abuse

sad...sad.... :)

http://www.theedgemalaysia.com/in-the-financial-daily/219095-better-second-half-seen-for-plantation-companies.html

Posted by KC Loh > 2012-08-25 21:01 | Report Abuse

hot weather is coming back to Malaysia. Expect flash flooding soon! sad... sad.. :)

http://www.theedgemalaysia.com/business-news/219126-palm-oil-inches-up-set-for-2nd-straight-weekly-gain.html

Posted by kcfan > 2012-08-26 18:16 | Report Abuse

Crude palm oil prices rose on Wednesday to return to a high of 3,000 ringgit per tonne, investors look forward to the new round of "bull market" is expected to come, but analysts have thrown cold water that short-term original brown oil. bullish, but slowing demand and inventory pressure and other negative factors are still fresh in the material is difficult to reverse the price yaw variable trend, a bull market is still far from forming, the fastest debut only this year seconds.
Bull market is the fastest year-on-year tip of branch debut
CIMB Research said yesterday the large Mayan Sheng Product Exchange CPO futures under the support of the unusually large trading volume exceeded RM 3,000 per metric ton to 3 thousand and 42 ringgit gap, even the 50-day simple moving average line (SMA) But this may be just beginning in June plane adjustment (Flat Correction), C wave trend.
"This wave rally may be the small waves of the third wave of the Elliott Wave Theory (Elliott Wave), is expected to drive the price of re-exploration a high of 3 thousand 183 ringgit per tonne in July, and even reached the Fibonacci fallback theory ( the Fibonacci Retracement) 50% to 62% of the 3 thousand 225 ringgit per metric ton and 3 thousand 315 ringgit resistance level to complete the second wave (Wave II) plane to adjust the pattern. "
http://biz.sinchew-i.com/node/64282?tid=22

Posted by KC Loh > 2012-08-26 18:20 | Report Abuse

yeahh... it was already RM3000+ last week! good news. not too particularly worried because CBIP is aiming for niche market in their plant patent for CPO sector. But they have already increase their palm landbank if recall correctly from annual report. This will translate better margin back for the downsteam side!

Posted by jocoolsebastianrocks > 2012-08-27 14:35 | Report Abuse

A good day to sifu KC LOH & KC Fan. Newbie here. In your expert opinions,will the GE & ECB meeting in September affect the price of CBIP?Thanks in advance.

Posted by KC Loh > 2012-08-27 14:44 | Report Abuse

firstly, i am not answering in the capacity as a sifu. kcfan might fill you in as that! :)

in a globalized world, and also that of the GE, i think all stock pricings will be affected somewhat. But stocks that stay true to fundamentals should not move too far from its value.

i am of the opinion, hedge fund pricing, el nino and el nina will effect CBIP pricing more than the two mentioned above. But then again, i wish to point to you the fact that CBIP is particular hold a niche market in their refinery machineries!

Posted by KC Loh > 2012-08-28 09:02 | Report Abuse

oh steady... steady.... no need rush!

Posted by kcfan > 2012-08-28 10:48 | Report Abuse

unbelievable steady...

Posted by kongfeifan86 > 2012-08-29 16:24 | Report Abuse

no energy d?

Posted by KC Loh > 2012-08-29 19:04 | Report Abuse

tyre pamcit! :)

Posted by KC Loh > 2012-08-29 21:03 | Report Abuse

This will be good news for CBIP and their sales long term. I recall the chairman of CBIP is the same director for Sime Darby and TH Plantations. He is also CEO of MPOC. Money in the bag! hehehe

http://biz.thestar.com.my/news/story.asp?file=/2012/8/29/business/20120829162708&sec=business

Posted by KC Loh > 2012-08-29 23:10 | Report Abuse

i believe another contract secured for their modipalm machinery.

http://www.bulleh.com/a/E892DC2067BDA30248257A690036DAB2

Posted by KC Loh > 2012-08-29 23:29 | Report Abuse

scratch that. is suppose to expand their plantation territory in indonesia! Good going CBIP.

Posted by KC Loh > 2012-08-30 16:28 | Report Abuse

steady... steady....

Posted by jocoolsebastianrocks > 2012-08-30 17:17 | Report Abuse

Thanks KC Loh. Waiting for the price drop after the dividend to bag some.

Posted by KC Loh > 2012-08-30 17:19 | Report Abuse

no thanks necessary. you asked a fair question, so you got my opinion! :)

Posted by KC Loh > 2012-09-04 00:22 | Report Abuse

This should have been done earlier, rather than allow the downstream players to suffer! FGV should be climbing :)

further news coming :

http://www.theedgemalaysia.com/business-news/219602-govt-revising-palm-oil-export-tax-structure-to-remain-competitive-says-deputy-minister.html

Posted by KC Loh > 2012-09-04 00:24 | Report Abuse

and another one:
http://www.theedgemalaysia.com/political-news/219617-palm-oil-edges-up-on-exports-bernanke-remarks.html

Posted by jocoolsebastianrocks > 2012-09-04 14:42 | Report Abuse

Our government needs higher tax to cover the increasing deficit, mostly enter their own pockets eventually,which in turn will bring down profit thus the ability of individuals/ corporates to spend/ invest,leading to a vicious cycle of economy downturn. Big companies usually have loopholes to go to,not individuals.

Posted by yfchong > 2012-09-10 10:44 | Report Abuse

Look like the bull has hone to other part of the financial continent, like wise now have bullets can collect consumer counter that would be able to generate generous divined over few Q until the return of financial bull, sob sob

Posted by KC Loh > 2012-09-10 11:52 | Report Abuse

ex-date liao!

Posted by jocoolsebastianrocks > 2012-09-10 12:41 | Report Abuse

Yes! Watching & catching.

Posted by KC Loh > 2012-09-10 14:02 | Report Abuse

Expected lor. China and India import has increased. Hopefully the stockpiling of 2mn tonnes will finish soon and price will rise in tandem again!

http://klse.i3investor.com/servlets/fdnews/213599.jsp

Posted by KC Loh > 2012-09-11 13:50 | Report Abuse

Management of CBIP, please take note that next two quarters, the shareholders would humbly ask for a special dividend + interim! Hehehe

http://klse.i3investor.com/servlets/fdnews/213613.jsp

Posted by jocoolsebastianrocks > 2012-09-11 19:24 | Report Abuse

If only CPO will go higher...should suggest them to sell machines for soy/ sugar processing too, to diversify business & minimize risk :D

Posted by KC Loh > 2012-09-11 19:47 | Report Abuse

If they diversified, the are maximizing risk. Sugar processing has high barrier of entry and monopoly by al-bukhary group and soy processing is an over crowded market!

Posted by KC Loh > 2012-09-13 13:02 | Report Abuse

Baguih.. baguih.... hehehe

http://klse.i3investor.com/servlets/fdnews/213656.jsp

Posted by KC Loh > 2012-09-14 15:20 | Report Abuse

going back to pre ex-date price already! steady .... steady.... :)

Posted by jocoolsebastianrocks > 2012-09-26 18:19 | Report Abuse

http://www.palmoilhq.com/PalmOilNews/asian-crude-palm-oil-ends-up-on-bargain-hunting-limited-upside/
Bro KC Loh, any chance of it reaching RM2.50+? Expected the price of crude palm oil recovering end of this yr. Wonder why the price of plantation-related share in Malaysia is still relatively stable in comparison to that next door i.e. Wilmar.

Posted by KC Loh > 2012-09-26 18:31 | Report Abuse

2.50+ is knocking on the back of weakening price. but export notably to China and India has increased.

I think delayed pessimism until new reports are needed to show that inventory finally is balanced. Indonesia tactics for undercutting prices also i think probably affected malaysia's position. Now govt is trying to do something about it in budget announcement probably. for now, the pessimism stays due to OCT, NOV and DEC cpo futures are down. In short, delay in news is still making the pessimism linger. with exports rising and wheat and soy depleted, cpo will probably bounce back year end as you estimated!

this is my view!

Posted by KC Loh > 2012-09-26 18:46 | Report Abuse

well i just read this report, and you may take in in tandem what is being posted

http://www.theedgemalaysia.com/in-the-financial-daily/221305-recovery-in-cpo-price-expected.html

Posted by jocoolsebastianrocks > 2012-09-26 19:01 | Report Abuse

Cool. Keep it in my watchlist. Wish I knew all this a few yrs earlier. Missed out 2 big bears. Need to learn more from experienced investors like you~:D

Posted by KC Loh > 2012-09-26 19:09 | Report Abuse

you can ask if you have any queries. I will try my best to answer what i know! all the best to you!

p.s. you may have a chance of picking up good stocks next year. Maybe not full blown bear, but the US fiscal cliff my be a precursor to some recession-like markets!

Posted by passerby > 2012-09-26 21:08 | Report Abuse

I thought they already sold away their oil palm plantations(Sachiew Plantations & Empresa), do they still have so much exposure on CPO?

Posted by jocoolsebastianrocks > 2012-09-26 22:07 | Report Abuse

CB Industrial Product Holding Bhd (CBIP) has proposed to acquire 94% of PT GAS for RM6.3mil or Rp18.8bil.
PT GAS has been granted a land with total area of 14,347ha in Central Kalimantan.
The land comprises 14,049ha of “Convertible Production Forest” and 298ha of “Other Purpose Area”.
ThepurchasepriceofRM6.3milwasroughlybasedonaconsiderationofRM605/haforthe “Other Purpose Area” land and RM437/ha for the “Convertible Production Forest” land.
According to CBIP’s Bursa Announcement, a “Convertible Production Forest” land must apply for a relinquishment of forest area to the Minister of Forestry and be granted with a “Hak Guna Usaha” before it can be planted whereas an “Other Purpose Area” land does not require applying for a relinquishment of forest area.
WeviewtheproposedacquisitionpositivelyasitwouldexpandCBIP’splantationlandbank in Indonesia.
Currently, the group has about 37,273ha of land in Kalimantan.
Out of these, an estimated 33,000ha is plantable with palm oil.
Apartfromthese,CBIPalsoownsstakesinassociates,whichhave26,422haoflandintotal.
With PT GAS, CBIP’s landbank would increase to 51,620ha.
WeconsiderthepurchasepriceofRM437/hatoRM605/hafair.CBIP’spreviousacquisitions of landbank in Indonesia were roughly at RM703/ha.
Presently, CBIP is preparing nurseries for its oil palm estates in Kalimantan. The group plans to plant about 3,000ha to 5,000ha of land with oil palm each year.

Posted by jocoolsebastianrocks > 2012-09-26 22:08 | Report Abuse

Copy & paste from AmSecurities.

Posted by jocoolsebastianrocks > 2012-09-26 22:16 | Report Abuse

http://research.osk188.com/attachments/45/osk-report-cbip_stock-idea_20120904_osk-retail-research-P9AU72101938150454e5f7fcca.pdf
OSK better.

Posted by necro > 2012-09-26 23:29 | Report Abuse

ROE UP UP every year!!!

Posted by KC Loh > 2012-09-30 00:41 | Report Abuse

The first eight months of this year, palm oil export new high
SATURDAY, 29 SEPTEMBER 2012 20:10
(Kuala Lumpur, the 28th) Malaysian plantation and Industries Deputy Minister Datuk Hamzah Nuding said, until August 31 this year, "Malaysia's palm oil exports amounted to 47.4 billion ringgit, a record high.

He said that the first eight months of this year, a total of 47.4 billion ringgit palm oil products were exported to 150 countries and regions around the world. Period, China is Malaysia's largest palm oil exporter, accounting for 19.1% of total exports, accounting for about 12.3%, followed by the European Union, Pakistan, accounting for about 7.5% and about 7.1% in the United States.

It is understood that the full year of 2011 Malaysian palm oil exports amounted to 83.4 billion ringgit. The palm oil is the most important one of the pillar industries in Malaysia."

translated from http://www.eunited.com.my/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&catid=46%3A2009-10-23-07-13-11&id=98159%3A8-&Itemid=75

Posted by jocoolsebastianrocks > 2012-09-30 12:04 | Report Abuse

Indonesian government cuts export tax for CPO from 15%to 13.5% while refined oil 7% to 6% in September .http://finance.yahoo.com/news/indonesia-sets-crude-palm-export-033009706.html Disappointed with the new budget plan with no tax cut for fertilizer/pesticide/CPO.

Posted by KC Loh > 2012-09-30 12:15 | Report Abuse

indonesia's stockpile is increasing exponentially without control. That's why Aceh recently put a stop to issuing license for clearance of forest!

i think the calculation of the part of the govt is that with the depleting and massive price rise of grain and soyoil. the export of palm oil will sufficiently deal with the current high stockpiling! keeping at this price will not require tax cut, because govt will still need to keep revenue up to meet the current fiscal deficit! I think by year end, price will be good again for palm oil!

Posted by jocoolsebastianrocks > 2012-10-01 11:32 | Report Abuse

Totally agree with your last 2 statements, bro, totally~:>

Posted by KC Loh > 2012-10-01 15:11 | Report Abuse

steady..... steady......

Posted by KC Loh > 2012-10-04 11:41 | Report Abuse

good proposal... about time too! should be good for GenP, Kfima, and the rest CPO counters!

http://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/PublicInvest/18633.jsp

Posted by KC Loh > 2012-10-04 11:43 | Report Abuse

but downstream players will still not have their lots improved. FGV? kesian.....

http://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/journeytowealth88/18636.jsp

Posted by jocoolsebastianrocks > 2012-10-04 13:27 | Report Abuse

Don't think they'll approve the proposal for tax cut cos our treasury has many holes to be covered.

Posted by KC Loh > 2012-10-04 13:32 | Report Abuse

Minister Dompok is leading the charge, i think will be approved. if the tax structure remains the same, Malaysia will be left behind. Its a case of hands being tied, due to Indonesia's insensitivity! i think CPO counters will soar after the new reduced tax implementation! remember, with soy depleting, palm oil will shine! The improvement of exports to China and India validates that!

Posted by jocoolsebastianrocks > 2012-10-09 11:01 | Report Abuse

http://www.palmoilhq.com/PalmOilNews/malaysia-defers-decision-on-cutting-crude-palm-oil-export-tax-official/
As expected from our government... Still need time to study?..

Posted by KC Loh > 2012-10-09 12:17 | Report Abuse

i still say govt-to-govt is the way to go. I think there is a fear of all out war with Indonesia and the greatest losers are palm oil sector! Remember, we have malaysian companies invested a lot in Indonesia!

anyway, still a silly decision not to lower it somewhat for the downstream players in this sector! I seriously thought Malaysians hands were tied in this case! looks like political sentiments carried the day!