The counter is horribly bearish. The bears continue to charge violently with no sign of fatigue. In the next few days it could possibly fall to 105 and below. Trade wisely 9/9/2024
Janus@ bolehland. Most of the counters are heavily manipulated. Imagine from Rm 3.70 to Rm 1.00 plus. How many ppl are stucked high? Heartless operator, sharks and IB. Haha
The call warrant will expire in a week time. Today is the beginning of the 5 day VWAP. There is an inclined tendency to push down the price of mother share to render the warrant out of money and mature worthlessly. Happy trading 17/9/24
That's the price to pay for bottom fishing, a long period of looking at paper losses while waiting for the inevitable rebound vs. chasing high where one should rightfully see immedaite gains and more gains without much waiting
You can wait for one more drop to $1 or below before the inevitable rebound, or you can go in now and take some paper losses but not miss the next uptrend. Gluck
Strong Ringgit addresses raw material and freight cost
Budget'25 adjust sugar price or not nvm, Govt paying this bumi company 24M monthly or 288M yearly
Interest cost is high because of Johor plant, I don't foresee much reduction tho
New Johor warehouse completed only in Aug'24. Ramp up production if they can hit 50% UF results will be better than last few quarters
Importantly, at least 75% held that won't move. Balance 25% shares for such a smallish counter. You can know for sure that it's all in the waiting. When interested parties become interested, it's gonna double again
As much as CEO thinks they are good in hedging, MSM often misses it
So yes it shall take a few quarters. Last quarter, they would have locked in high sugar cost from prior hedging. This quarter onwards they would have averaged down and sugar cost shld be quite favourable now despite NY11 surging
Ringgit they would have hedged way ahead of current strength. So that's another hedging loss that we can't see. Need things to trend a few quarters for them to get it right
Let's see how budget goes. Govt should address the dichotomy between subsidising MSM/CSR on the one hand to cap sugar price while declaring war on sugar. Cannot like this one la
Agree with Josh, watch out MSM has formed higher lows tho it's very flat and barely visible lol. Bottom reversal in place looking to close the gap back to 1.50 range. Even w hedging loss MSM is inexpensive at 1.70+-I think that'd be the stable price for a while after this rebound 😆
MSM's 2Q loss is as I have correctly speculated now that it's confirmed by BIMB - it's a hedging loss. Much has been said about their export segment trading on current prices therefore ensuring a small margin - this isn't true looking at last quarter. They hedged raw sugar cost too high and forced to sell at market. They did it reluctantly, hence the marked to market losses of 18M for unsold inventory and a sharply qoq export volume. Based on their internal export target, they have attained only 1/3 in 1H confirming their restraint in exporting at low prices.
Now MSM has the benefit of riding MYR strength and having locked in lower NY11 prices for subsequent gains. Their increased storage capacity will allow them to "trade" export segment for higher prices. A turnaround in 3Q looks elusive. However given another quarter for them to adjust their poorly timed hedges, they will quickly turn profitable with a sizeable quarterly profit of between 40-50M. They will then be trading at a very low PE relative to newbie's consumer sector stocks.
Other catalysts:
1) Bringing in a partner in MSM Johor with a sizeable offtake. Think Wilmar. Not sure why it didnt go through, whether it is political or not. Even if Wilmar doesnt come in, MSM Johor will be increasingly valuable over time. The market is niche and regulated, someone will want in. E.g. if they open it up to Syed Mokhtar he will snap it up without further tot
2) Corporate exercise by Felda. Since their 2019 blunder which coincided with Ringgit crash, Felda has been suffering from no returns whatsoever by MSM. The moment MSM turns around there will be huge pressure from major shareholder to monetise. This will directly benefit minority shareholders
This book is the result of the author's many years of experience and observation throughout his 26 years in the stockbroking industry. It was written for general public to learn to invest based on facts and not on fantasies or hearsay....
nrama123
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Posted by nrama123 > 3 weeks ago | Report Abuse
MSM is good example for Syndicate Counter ..similar like SCIB