Posted by UncleFollower > 2 months ago | Report Abuse

MSM's 2Q loss is as I have correctly speculated now that it's confirmed by BIMB - it's a hedging loss. Much has been said about their export segment trading on current prices therefore ensuring a small margin - this isn't true looking at last quarter. They hedged raw sugar cost too high and forced to sell at market. They did it reluctantly, hence the marked to market losses of 18M for unsold inventory and a sharply qoq export volume. Based on their internal export target, they have attained only 1/3 in 1H confirming their restraint in exporting at low prices.

Posted by newbie9893 > 2 months ago | Report Abuse

MSM resistance breakout with high volumn, TP 1.4 today

Posted by UncleFollower > 2 months ago | Report Abuse

Now MSM has the benefit of riding MYR strength and having locked in lower NY11 prices for subsequent gains. Their increased storage capacity will allow them to "trade" export segment for higher prices. A turnaround in 3Q looks elusive. However given another quarter for them to adjust their poorly timed hedges, they will quickly turn profitable with a sizeable quarterly profit of between 40-50M. They will then be trading at a very low PE relative to newbie's consumer sector stocks.

Other catalysts:

1) Bringing in a partner in MSM Johor with a sizeable offtake. Think Wilmar. Not sure why it didnt go through, whether it is political or not. Even if Wilmar doesnt come in, MSM Johor will be increasingly valuable over time. The market is niche and regulated, someone will want in. E.g. if they open it up to Syed Mokhtar he will snap it up without further tot

2) Corporate exercise by Felda. Since their 2019 blunder which coincided with Ringgit crash, Felda has been suffering from no returns whatsoever by MSM. The moment MSM turns around there will be huge pressure from major shareholder to monetise. This will directly benefit minority shareholders

Posted by newbie9893 > 2 months ago | Report Abuse

last chance to buy MSM below 1.3, you won't be able to get this price in afternoon section..

Posted by newbie9893 > 2 months ago | Report Abuse

wah...cleared 1.35 in one second..go...go...go

Posted by newbie9893 > 2 months ago | Report Abuse

I am about to reach my TP1.4

Posted by newbie9893 > 2 months ago | Report Abuse

i will change my TP to limit up price 1.59 if break 1.4

Posted by newbie9893 > 2 months ago | Report Abuse

congrats to all those who follow me to buy in MSM this morning....Ong ah...huat ah..

Posted by miracle_trader > 2 months ago | Report Abuse

can go higher, it drop from 3.50 . so now rebound to around 1.80 also reasonable

Posted by newbie9893 > 2 months ago | Report Abuse

please buy Parkson as well ...to be rewarded like MSM soon

Posted by fruitcake > 2 months ago | Report Abuse

die those who bought at ceiling price today💀

Posted by newbie9893 > 2 months ago | Report Abuse

no worries, MSM in uptread mode, will continue up tomorrow

Posted by mf > 2 months ago | Report Abuse

Time
US 30
42,013.5 42,261.1 41,969.0 -183.0 -0.43%
04:11:55
US 500
5,684.9 5,721.4 5,676.4 -24.6 -0.43%
04:10:22
US Tech 100
19,693.7 19,861.0 19,652.3 -107.3 -0.54%
04:10:35

Posted by fruitcake > 2 months ago | Report Abuse

msm certainly got sweeter. GO GO GO

Posted by KylieTan > 2 months ago | Report Abuse

Seems like strong MYR is benefitting MSM

Posted by share4u888 > 1 month ago | Report Abuse

will government remove the sugar ceiling price for MSM and scrap the sugar subsidy ??

Posted by share4u888 > 1 month ago | Report Abuse

just wait for the Budget anouncement.

Posted by bose00 > 1 month ago | Report Abuse

Nice chart… formation of a mini cup and holder ?!?

Posted by share4u888 > 1 month ago | Report Abuse

next 3 concerns of the government : 1) sugar ceiling price and subsidy, 2) Ron95 floating price, 3) re-implement of GST. Which one you think government will go ahead first and doesn't impact the citizen much.

Posted by share4u888 > 1 month ago | Report Abuse

baed on the chart, this week should have more upside.

Posted by Luisa7 > 1 month ago | Report Abuse

Higher export prices positive for MSM

https://www.thestar.com.my/business/business-news/2024/10/01/higher-export-prices-positive-for-msm

Posted by KylieTan > 1 month ago | Report Abuse

Who is lucky person who grabbed it at below RM1.10 ? 😃

Posted by UncleFollower > 1 month ago | Report Abuse

Bullish pattern forming, high chance of a big spike soon. Fundamentally it's terrible lol. Newsflow, could be bad - war on sugar, PMX could tax sugar to discourage consumption + continue to cap sugar price at 2.85 to encourage consumption both at the same time 😎 that'd be a poor outcome for MSM

Posted by meisarel > 1 month ago | Report Abuse

The gov may abolish the industry incentive to sugar players by removing ceiling price.

Let market forces determine its value.

Posted by KylieTan > 1 month ago | Report Abuse

Tomorrow will determine the trend of MSM
https://www.thestar.com.my/news/nation/2024/10/10/interactive-what-you-need-to-know-about-malaysias-upcoming-sugar-tax-hike

Posted by UncleFollower > 1 month ago | Report Abuse

Yes PMX did it. Increase sugar tax on sugary drinks purportedly to wage war on sugar, but maintain price control at RM2.85 to have malaysian sugar cheapest in the world 🤣

Posted by KylieTan > 1 month ago | Report Abuse

Surprisingly, MSM doesn't free fall today 🙂

Posted by thundery > 1 month ago | Report Abuse

The tax can divert to consumer, no worry on MSM but at the same time hope to halt certain peoples to less consumes sugar, eventually not to totally eliminate sugar users rather than reduce the number, in long term no effect on buisness will be as usual

Posted by UncleFollower > 1 month ago | Report Abuse

A convincing break below 4 USD to ringgit will be a huge catalyst for MSM. Whether that happens sooner or a recovery in its exports remain to be seen

Posted by tapdance > 1 month ago | Report Abuse

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-10-21/sugar-supplies-seen-dwindling-to-lowest-in-years-in-early-2025?utm_source=website&utm_medium=share&utm_campaign=copy

Posted by bose00 > 1 month ago | Report Abuse

good sign - ready to position . share price slowly climbing up ~

Posted by KylieTan > 1 month ago | Report Abuse

Seems like we could see a sweet turn for the MSM 😀

https://www.thestar.com.my/business/business-news/2024/10/21/will-msm-see-a-sweet-turnaround

Posted by UncleFollower > 1 month ago | Report Abuse

Will MSM see a sweet turnaround?

IT wasn’t too long ago that MIDF Research had a target price of RM4.48 per share for MSM Holdings Bhd. That was in April 2024, when it was trading around RM3.30.

MIDF’s bullishness was based on several factors, including rectifying equipment problems at MSM’s Johor plant, which had hit the pause button.

With that sorted out, MIDF reckoned that MSM would lift the group’s sugar yield by ramping up its melting activities – a key process in sugar making –ahead of growing demand in Asia-Pacific countries.

Another factor cited by the research house was the price moderation of raw sugar, which is MSM’s main raw material.

Rumours of potential new shareholders also boosted sentiment on MSM shares then, including the reemergence of speculation that the Kuok group might be interested.

Alas, there were problems. No new shareholders came in and MSM fell back into the red.

Today, MSM trades at a mere RM1.25 per share and MIDF has since downgraded the stock to “neutral” with a target price of RM1.39.

So what changed so much in just six months?

A quick rewind to February 2024. MSM was the talk of the town then as the group finally returned to the black after more than eight quarters of losses.

It reported a net profit of RM42.87mil in the fourth quarter (4Q) of financial year 2023 (FY23), as its quarterly revenue jumped 40% to RM949.88mil.

MSM maintained its momentum into FY24, reporting a profitable 1Q despite a slightly lower revenue.

But this was when the research house lowered its target price to RM3.60 per share, revising downwards MSM’s earnings estimates, despite maintaining its “buy” call.

By the 2Q ended June 30, things went awry as the group posted a net loss of RM32.4mil despite an uptick in revenue.

MSM cited high input costs –mainly raw sugar, freight expenses and the weakened ringgit – as the main culprits.

MIDF flagged another issue, an inventory write-down, as MSM’s sugar prices struggled to compete with a surge of cheaper imported sugar from approved permit players.

Posted by UncleFollower > 1 month ago | Report Abuse

Spills the ‘sugar’ on 2Q losses

Speaking to StarBiz 7, MSM group chief executive officer (CEO) Syed Feizal Syed Mohammad explains that after taking risk management steps to combat high raw sugar prices, the company had to absorb higher hedging costs in the 2Q due to prior hedging activities.

Syed Feizal is the fourth CEO of MSM since its parent company, FGV Holdings Bhd, listed in 2012.

“This (loss) is not going to be something permanent. You’ve got to pass through certain higher hedging done at that time – especially when raw sugar was doing fairly well in 2023, so you’re hedging for 2024.

“Nevertheless, we don’t lock up all our positions at a single price,” he says.

He explains that the group opted for gradual hedging to mitigate risks associated with sudden price changes.

However, he anticipates seeing results a bit later, potentially by the 4Q.

Gas, on the other hand, takes up 8% to 9% of the group’s cost.

“Petroliam Nasional Bhd is our direct supplier. We pay market prices. We don’t get any concessions,” he adds.

On freight issues, Syed Feizal notes that costs were higher for MSM in the 2Q and suggests that the government provide more logistics incentives for exports.

He explains that bulk breaking – dividing a large quantity of goods into smaller amounts – is more cost-efficient compared to container shipping.

However, in Malaysia, it’s the other way around as bulk breaking rates are higher.

“That should not be the case. The relevant ministries should look into how they can support industries to achieve more competitive logistics costs,” he adds.

Returning to profitability

Syed Feizal remains hopeful that MSM is heading back to profitability.

“The 4Q is a lot brighter and we are optimistic of getting back in the black for the full year.

“Opportunity lies in volume,” adds Syed Feizal, noting the revival of MSM’s Johor plant.

Managed by its subsidiary, Sugar Refinery (Johor) Sdn Bhd, the plant has faced ongoing issues since its inception.

Syed Feizal aims to see the Johor plant in the black again and contributing to group earnings, complementing the strong performance of the Prai plant.

“The Johor plant has a utIlisation rate of about 30% to 35%.

“So, there’s a lot of headroom in volume. Our strategy to support the ramp-up is to get to the export market,” he says.

The plan is to expand MSM’s export market from 15 to 25 countries.

MSM’s top five export destinations are all located within Asia Pacific, accounting for more than 60% of total exports.

MSM is seeking to have the Vietnam anti-dumping tariff lifted, for which Syed Feizal says discussions with that country’s government are underway.

“Vietnam accounts for 100,000 to 140,000 tonnes annually and we don’t want to miss that.”

MSM exported 242,077 tonnes of refined sugar in 2023, which will go up to 260,000 tonnes by the end of 2024, he says.

For next year, the target is set at 360,000 tonnes.

“Contributions will not just be largely from Prai, but Johor will start to contribute more as well.”

As improvements continue at the Johor plant, Syed Feizal aspires to see MSM with “two Prai plants” – highlighting two powerhouses at full force.

Posted by KylieTan > 1 month ago | Report Abuse

We will see an M-shaped pattern on the movement of MSM

Posted by bose00 > 1 month ago | Report Abuse

RSI over 50% good momentum

Posted by UncleFollower > 1 month ago | Report Abuse

This counter really have to dare to sell dare to buy...dare to buy side I definitely played my part hehe. Dare to sell I only did it this round while missing out on last few rounds. I am left with 1/3, one more dip I have to start buying it back down...can't win it all, sell high buy high

Posted by UncleFollower > 1 month ago | Report Abuse

Moving very nicely.

Posted by KylieTan > 1 month ago | Report Abuse

What's your target price, UncleFollower 😀

Posted by share4u888 > 1 month ago | Report Abuse

RM1.56 1st resistance

Posted by thundery > 1 month ago | Report Abuse

Typical pump and dump stock

Posted by UncleFollower > 1 month ago | Report Abuse

@Kylie no target price for this counter, too volatile. If forced to however, it should be 1.7++ first round and if it's clear to $2 coupled with earnings recovery, I will just ride the wave.

However this counter dare to sell dare to buy...I sold heavily those few days, now I am buying back some. Prepared to buy down to $1 again

Posted by KylieTan > 1 month ago | Report Abuse

nice, thanks for sharing, UncleFollower 😊

Posted by heesing62 > 1 month ago | Report Abuse

This counter is like casino….. the management is poor if you compared against Robert’s era.

Posted by thundery > 1 month ago | Report Abuse

Gambling stock

Posted by UncleFollower > 1 month ago | Report Abuse

Fair enough to say management is poor vs Robert's era. But it is for the poor management that here we are given a chance to buy it so low.

Their greatest obstacle is the legacy Johor plant. Felda should not have done it back then but it is already built and sunk in. Current CEO's focus on changing that is the right direction. Can't be faulted too much if he fails to turn it around 😅

Their 2nd obstacle is the way they hedge. Robert is famous for making more in directional bets on sugar futures than the factories could produce. MSM today hedges out of necessity so there'll always be a time lag effect. They are trying to take fewer directional bets, with an aim for stability and ultimately paying back some dividends to Felda.

Posted by UncleFollower > 1 month ago | Report Abuse

That's what's happening to the business. This stock moves in an entirely different way. Because it is so tightly held and so illiquid, the share price action is clearly driven by sharks more than fundamentals. Definitely right to say it's a gambling stock - thats why I am here 😂

Posted by rhtc88 > 1 month ago | Report Abuse

Yesterday sold at RM 1.31 with 5%. Small gain better than lose. Looking forward to buy again when drop more.

Posted by Besafe > 1 month ago | Report Abuse

Pump and dump stock. Got make a bit just sell. Haha

Posted by KylieTan > 1 month ago | Report Abuse

It's gambling stock for FIFO traders, thundery 😄