MSM's 2Q loss is as I have correctly speculated now that it's confirmed by BIMB - it's a hedging loss. Much has been said about their export segment trading on current prices therefore ensuring a small margin - this isn't true looking at last quarter. They hedged raw sugar cost too high and forced to sell at market. They did it reluctantly, hence the marked to market losses of 18M for unsold inventory and a sharply qoq export volume. Based on their internal export target, they have attained only 1/3 in 1H confirming their restraint in exporting at low prices.
Now MSM has the benefit of riding MYR strength and having locked in lower NY11 prices for subsequent gains. Their increased storage capacity will allow them to "trade" export segment for higher prices. A turnaround in 3Q looks elusive. However given another quarter for them to adjust their poorly timed hedges, they will quickly turn profitable with a sizeable quarterly profit of between 40-50M. They will then be trading at a very low PE relative to newbie's consumer sector stocks.
Other catalysts:
1) Bringing in a partner in MSM Johor with a sizeable offtake. Think Wilmar. Not sure why it didnt go through, whether it is political or not. Even if Wilmar doesnt come in, MSM Johor will be increasingly valuable over time. The market is niche and regulated, someone will want in. E.g. if they open it up to Syed Mokhtar he will snap it up without further tot
2) Corporate exercise by Felda. Since their 2019 blunder which coincided with Ringgit crash, Felda has been suffering from no returns whatsoever by MSM. The moment MSM turns around there will be huge pressure from major shareholder to monetise. This will directly benefit minority shareholders
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UncleFollower
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Posted by UncleFollower > 1 day ago | Report Abuse
MSM's 2Q loss is as I have correctly speculated now that it's confirmed by BIMB - it's a hedging loss. Much has been said about their export segment trading on current prices therefore ensuring a small margin - this isn't true looking at last quarter. They hedged raw sugar cost too high and forced to sell at market. They did it reluctantly, hence the marked to market losses of 18M for unsold inventory and a sharply qoq export volume. Based on their internal export target, they have attained only 1/3 in 1H confirming their restraint in exporting at low prices.