The benchmark palm oil contract for April delivery on the Bursa Malaysia Derivatives Exchange was 1.3 percent up at 2,226 ringgit ($541.61) a tonne at the close. It was earlier as high as 2,228 ringgit, its strongest levels since Oct. 23. Palm is up 2.4 percent for the week, a second week of gains in three. The benchmark palm oil contract for April delivery on the Bursa Malaysia Derivatives Exchange was 1.3 percent up at 2,226 ringgit ($541.61) a tonne at the close. It was earlier as high as 2,228 ringgit, its strongest levels since Oct. 23. Palm is up 2.4 percent for the week, a second week of gains in three.
KUALA LUMPUR: Malaysian palm oil futures jumped to a near three-month high on Friday, charting a second day of gains, buoyed by strong crude oil prices and technical buying.
The benchmark palm oil contract for April delivery on the Bursa Malaysia Derivatives Exchange was 1.3 percent up at 2,226 ringgit ($541.61) a tonne at the close. It was earlier as high as 2,228 ringgit, its strongest levels since Oct. 23.
In a letter to shareholders, which was released on the Bursa Malaysia website, FGV’s chairman said that the group has identified several non-core businesses and assets worth RM350mil for disposal. Also, he said that FGV’s targets are an FFB yield of 19.4 tonnes/ha and production cost (exmill) of RM1,469/tonne for FY19F compared with an FFB yield of 16.9 tonnes/ha and production cost of RM1,666/tonne in FY18E. In addition, it is estimated that FGV will record a pre-tax profit of RM1bil based on an average CPO price of RM2,500/tonne. We think that the proposed disposal of non-core assets worth RM350mil would help generate some cash for FGV. The group’s gross cash stood at RM1.74bil as at end-FY17. Including loans and amounts due to the shareholder, FGV’s net debts were RM4.2bil as at end-FY17. Net gearing was 75.4%. We believe that one of the assets slated for disposal is FGV Cambridge Nanosystems, which has already been classified as an asset for sale in FGV’s balance sheet. It had a net book value of RM72.2mil as at end-December 2017. We reckon that the other assets for sale may be related to travel or property such as the Troika condominiums. The proposed disposal of the assets would result in a one-off disposal gain to FGV. Operationally, whether or not FGV swings into the black would depend on CPO prices and the group’s production costs. We maintain HOLD on FGV with a fair value of RM1.08/share, which is 0.7x of FGV’s book value of RM1.54/share as at end-FY17. FGV’s book value was RM1.30/share as at endSeptember 2018. Source: AmInvest Research - 15 Jan 2019
No wonder, share price (FGV) sudah naik :) Crude Palm Oil Prices Up 20% Early This Year Author: kltrader | Publish date: Tue, 15 Jan 2019, 10:25 AM
Macquarie Equities Research (MQ Research) released a report on Thursday (10 Jan), summarizing the crude palm oil (CPO) statistics for December 2018. In a nutshell, although last month was uninspiring due to several factors, the recent cut on import taxes for palm products as announced by the Indian government saw CPO prices rebound approximately 20% to RM2,200 per tonne early this year.
Conclusion Malaysia’s palm oil stock-to-use (S/U) ratio for December 2018 (16.2%) continued to deviate from long-term average (5-yr: 10%) as inventory swelled to a new high 3.22mil tonnes (+6.9% month-on-month (MoM)), on: (i) sluggish exports (+0.6% MoM to 1.38mil tonnes); (ii) insignificant decline in production (-2.0% MoM to 1.81 mil tonnes vs historical avg. of 12% MoM); and (iii) high level of palm oil imports (109k tonnes, -2% MoM). Impact Production contracted. CPO production in December 2018 shrank by 2.0% MoM to 1.81mil tonnes, leading to a 2% year-on-year (YoY) fall in total production for 2018 to 19.52mil tonnes. While the decline is in-line with seasonality, the quantum is much smaller vs the 5-year historical average of -12% MoM. MQ Research believes this could be due to shifts in weather patterns in Malaysia through the year. Weak exports. There was a marginal increase in export volume in December 2018 (+0.6% MoM to 1.38mil tonnes), supported by India (+17.3% MoM) and China (+55.6% MoM). However, total exports for the full year were still uninspiring, registering a 0.4% decline year-on-year (YoY) to 16.48 mil tonnes. China imported 3% less YoY to 1.86mil tonnes, while EU was down 4% YoY to 1.91mil tonnes. This was partly offset by a jump in exports to India (+24% YoY to 486k tonnes). While this may come as a surprise in view of the high tariff the government imposed (>40%), note that India imported much less in 2017, hence, the low-base effect. Inventory reached a new peak. Despite weaker production and a slight improvement in exports in Dec 2018, they were insufficient to suppress the inventory level, bringing it to an all-time high at 3.22mil tonnes (+10.1% YoY, +6.9% MoM). MQ Research believes local players are still importing discounted palm oil from Indonesia, resulting in 51% YoY increase in imports to 841k tonnes. Outlook The industry had a fairly good start to 2019 as prices rebounded to RM2,100–2,200/tonne (up 10-20%) following the announcement by the Indian government to cut its import taxes on palm products. That said, MQ Research thinks the cuts are not sufficient to drive inventory down meaningfully—tariff on CPO was reduced from 44% to 40%, while refined palm products from Malaysia now have a new (preferential) tariff of 45% (Indo 50%) from 54% previously.
MQ Research believes bigger cuts are required to potentially bring exports to historical levels, especially with other vegetable oils overcrowding the market. MQ Research believes Indo’s biodiesel programme will continue to soak up CPO.
In addition, as production momentum tails off, MQ Research thinks near-term downside risks are limited. However, in the absence of major catalysts, MQ Research prefers defensive players like IOI vs other Malaysian players, given its strong operating track record and low sensitivity to CPO prices thanks to its downstream exposure.
Regionally, MQ Research likes First Resources for its high production growth and London Sumatra for its attractive margins.
Speculation on who will helm FGV Holdings Bhd intensified as Mass Rapid Transit Corp Sdn Bhd (MRT Corp) commercial and land management director Datuk Haris Fadzilah Hassan (picture) is widely expected to fill the hot seat at the listed planter.
The government-linked company (GLC), which has a gargantuan task of correcting its accumulated financial and operational mess over the last few years, has been searching for a new head in the last four months.
According to sources, the search ended earlier this week and Haris Fadzilah has been selected by the company.
The appointment is said to have also been endorsed by Economic Affairs Minister Datuk Seri Mohamed Azmin Ali, who oversees the Federal Land Development Authority (Felda), one of the major stakeholders in the listed company, a source told The Malaysian Reserve (TMR).
TMR had reported on Tuesday that FGV could name the new CEO as early as this week and the candidate will be from outside.
TMR’s report speculated that the front-running candidate could be a former staff of MRT Corp or Sime Darby Bhd, given the string of top personnel from the two companies who had been recently recruited to join FGV.
In a compelling letter to the shareholders published on the stock exchange on Monday, FGV chairman Datuk Wira Azhar Abdul Hamid said the appointment of a new CEO will be made in the “next few days”. The appointment, he said would allow the company to correct its operational and financial debacle. Azhar has been carrying the mantle of interim CEO.
Haris Fadzilah succeeds Datuk Zakaria Arshad, who resigned in September last year.
The former’s appointment comes two weeks after the plantation giant announced the appointment of Datuk Mohd Hairul Abdul Hamid as its CFO on Jan 2. Mohd Hairul was MRT Corp’s former CFO.
A graduate of University of Miami, Haris Fadzilah’s career has revolved around several key industries including oil and gas, automotive and plantation. His 28-year corporate experience extends to Petroliam Nasional Bhd, Perusahan Otomobil Nasional Sdn Bhd, Sime Darby and MRT Corp.
The new CEO, however, faces a herculean task to turn around the giant planter that posted almost RM850 million losses for the July through September 2018 period.
FGV is also embroiled in what is expected to be lengthy and complicated civil proceedings filed against former directors and management staff to recover millions from alleged questionable deals.
Azhar had said the new management will implement the transformation plan that the board had worked on and will have the task of turning the company around.
With a professional team in place, Azhar said FGV will be able to make changes, execute hard decisions to cut waste and “sweating” its assets as they ought to be. This process will span over the next two to three months, Azhar added.
FGV was once Asia’s largest initial public offering in 2012. Its share price has since plummeted to a record low of 63 sen in the last 52 weeks, a far cry from the excitement of its RM4.55 debut. FGV closed at 95 sen yesterday.
Jika boleh, RM2-3 pun ok lah, dibawah seringgit, sungguh memalukan :)
FGV was once Asia’s largest initial public offering in 2012. Its share price has since plummeted to a record low of 63 sen in the last 52 weeks, a far cry from the excitement of its RM4.55 debut. FGV closed at 95 sen yesterday.
@qps9999 very likely next week, above rm1 ,while waiting for news on new CEO & turnaround plan of felda from Azmin. 3 most important factors of a company for investors: quality of the top mgmt team especially the CEO, Biz model & current market price (cheap vs expensive). fingers crossed. So, who will lead FGV as CEO will also have an influence on the share price :)
any revamp takes time to see the fruits. for the people not involved in corruption, they like ph, for those doing biz and paying corruption money to get contracts, etc they hate ph .... haha
China, the world’s second-largest economy, has imported a record amount of palm methyl ester, an alternative to conventional diesel made out of palm oil, according to PRIMA, a research company focusing on links between biofuel, energy and agricultural markets China, the world’s second-largest economy, has imported a record amount of palm methyl ester, an alternative to conventional diesel made out of palm oil, according to PRIMA, a research company focusing on links between biofuel, energy and agricultural markets
SINGAPORE: China is one of the top beneficiaries of the plunge in palm oil prices this year as the country seeks to boost use of the tropical commodity in biofuel to reduce reliance on energy derived from petroleum.
The world’s second-largest economy has imported a record amount of palm methyl ester, an alternative to conventional diesel made out of palm oil, according to PRIMA, a research company focusing on links between biofuel, energy and agricultural markets.
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Purchases were 720,000 tonnes in the first 10 months, with Indonesia supplying about 90%, Customs data show. Shipments revived in the second quarter for the first time in about four years as palm prices fell below those of gasoil, or conventional diesel.
The discount continued to widen, reaching US$220 a ton in early October, the heftiest since 2014, increasing the appeal of palm as fuel.
That benefited Indonesia and Malaysia, the top producers of the oil, as they struggled to cope with a global glut and prices at their lowest level in more than three years. — Bloomberg
As long as FGV simply does its business strictly following rules, regulations and the provisions of the laws, FGV is going to make good profits. Oil palm plantation is a very straight forward business. Each hectare of oil palm will give you about 20 to 22 MT of fresh fruit bunch (FFB). Just fertilise the trees, weeding the plantations and harvest the FFB faithfully, then FGV will be going to make profits.
FGV's problem is about the integrity of its previous management. They bought some properties and businesses not related to their core business at very high prices. They also bought Asian Plantation at an unreasonable high price. The quality of Asian Plantation was found to be very bad with a big portion of the land not suitable for oil palm planting. FGV just needs to stay in plantation which is its core competency area to become profitable.
The CEO, Azhar said that FGV can make RM1bil per year from its present businesses. That translates to earnings per share (EPS) of 27.4 sen. When it becomes reality, FGV should trade at RM2.74 for PE Ratio of 10 times. With PE Ratio of 15 times, It should trade at RM4.11 per share.
33,000 plantation is above 33 years ... 14K re-plantation each year within 2+ years those old 33 years should reduced .. with a competent management which want to show result i think FGV is in the right direction ... unless CPO goes south i would expect 2019 financial result should start showing some result .... but as much as possible .... .
Tun M visit to Africa, Europe can boost CPO price? So good news to inform Felda voters in Cameron? Najib only depend on China but they want us to have huge debts from ECRL, etc.
'8888' To be frank and on neutral side, I think your statement on "China want us to have huge debt" is not suitable. ECRL is part of one belt one road which Xi China are willing to see the success rather than failure. Further more it is mutually agreed project although was signed by Najib it is different matter.
This book is the result of the author's many years of experience and observation throughout his 26 years in the stockbroking industry. It was written for general public to learn to invest based on facts and not on fantasies or hearsay....
henry888
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Posted by henry888 > 2019-01-18 17:30 | Report Abuse
half sen ..ok lah......no prawn fish also can..