Unlike a company warrant, a structured warrant is issued by an IB in return for a premium. So the first investor buys the structured warrant directly from Macquarie, and then the warrant is subsequently traded freely on Bursa just like any other share. At the expiry date, if the mother share price is above the warrant exercise price, Macquarie will settle the difference in cash. If the mother share price is equal to or below the warrant exercise price, the warrant will expire worthless.
Now in this case, Macquarie issued this warrant C67 on 3 February 2020 (before the covid19 bull run) with an expiry of 16 Oct 2020 (next month).
With an exercise price of 1.67 and an exercise ratio of 1.333, Macquarie will have to compensate in cash to all warrant holders if the mother share price close above RM1.67. For example, if the mother share price close at RM5, Macquarie will have to compensate RM2.50 per warrant [(5-1.67) / 1.33]. If the mother share price close at RM8, the compensation is RM4.76 per warrant [(8-1.67) / 1.33]. As you can see, even though the difference in the mother share price is just 60% (8/5), they will need to compensate 90% (4.76/2.50) more. This is the leverage effect of a structured warrant.
Now the next thing that people need to know - just 2 weeks ago, Macquarie issued a report with a TP of RM30. Today they issued a new report with higher profit forecast for 2020, 2021 and 2022 on the basis that ASP is increasing faster than expected.
At the same time, he halved the TP on the basis that "ASP cannot sustain forever". What changed the analyst's forecast within this short 2 weeks? Did he suddenly talk to industry leaders worldwide to realise that ASP will not last forever? He did not know how to do his job previously and suddenly now he knows? Did he suddenly have a crystal ball?
Or did some head of department from the derivative division realised they shouldnt have issued C67 because they didn't expect the bull run sparked by Covid-19, spoke to the IB CEO, who then spoke to the head of department of the research division, who then had a "word" with the independent research analyst?
I'm not accusing anyone of anything, I'm just stating the facts and "possible scenarios". You make the judgement. This is something we need to ponder upon before taking in the headline RM5.40 downgrade report.
Why single out MAC's warrant. Even CIMB has it's own warrant expiring on 30th October 2020 at RM1.50 exercise price. RHB's warrant expiring on 27th Oct 2020 at RM1.95.
With an exercise price of 1.67 and an exercise ratio of 1.333, Macquarie will have to compensate in cash to all warrant holders if the mother share price close above RM1.67. For example, if the mother share price close at RM5, Macquarie will have to compensate RM2.50 per warrant [(5-1.67) / 1.33].
Can explain how the call warrant price (4.81) fit into the equation?
This book is the result of the author's many years of experience and observation throughout his 26 years in the stockbroking industry. It was written for general public to learn to invest based on facts and not on fantasies or hearsay....
stingray_ea
2,765 posts
Posted by stingray_ea > 2020-02-19 14:44 | Report Abuse
No hope