OSK Research maintains Sell on Eng Tek, FV RM1.24
Publish date: Wed, 19 Oct 2011, 08:52 AM
KUALA LUMPUR: OSK Research is maintaining its Sell call on Eng Teknologi at a revised fair value of RM1.24 based on 0.6 times FY12 price to net tangible asset, down from 0.7 times previously.
It said on Wednesday, Oct 19 that although the share price has retraced by some 15% since its last downgrade two days ago, it believes investors will turn even more cautious as the current flood in Thailand is not showing any signs of subsiding.
'We foresee further downside risks should the flood situation persist, which could compel the bankers of TYK Capital's privatisation offer to have second thoughts over the proposal,' it said.
On Tuesday, Engtek released an official statement on Bursa Malaysia regarding its Thailand operations amid existing floods in the Ayutthaya province.
The management has confirmed that operations in both its Rojana and Hi-Tech Industrial Park were suspended, while production in other facilities were also experiencing disruptions as their major customers in Thailand are situated in the flood-hit areas.
'The announcement did not come as a surprise as we highlighted previously that all five industrial estates in Ayutthaya have been confirmed to be inundated by water by the Thai army. Given the significant presence of most HDD component manufacturers within the flood-hit province, we continue to expect the negative developments to take its toll on the entire HDD component supply chain,' it said.
OSK Research said Thailand contributes 75% of Engtek's sales. With a total 400-500 CNCs installed, Engtek's two factories in the Ayutthaya province supply some 40% of its total production.
'While we believe management would attempt to mitigate any near-term production shortfall by increasing the production from its existing facilities in China, Philippines and Malaysia, we opine what is more of a concern here is that Thailand typically contributes 75% of its consolidated sales,' it said.
OSK Research said given the presence of almost all major HDD makers in the region, i.e. Western Digital, Seagate, Hitachi, and Toshiba.
The research house said due to the severity of the aftermath damage, the entire HDD supply chain is likely to be hit and we foresee downside risks not just on its Thai facilities but also its existing operations in the rest of the region. 'Restoration to pre-flood production level would depend largely on how fast all the HDD component manufacturers can shift their respective production out of Thailand in the immediate term and how soon the flood in Thailand would subside in the near term,' it pointed out.
OSK Research said due to the fluidity of the situation with all of the flood-hit industrial parks sealed off by the Thai army as a precaution, the magnitude of losses suffered remains unknown at this point of time.
'Although we make no changes to our forecasts for now, we foresee a difficult 4Q11 given the widespread aftermath impact. Should the monsoon rains subside by the end of this month, realignment or replacement of machineries will take at least another two to three months and hence, we expect production to normalise only by 2Q12 in our base case scenario,' it said.
It said on Wednesday, Oct 19 that although the share price has retraced by some 15% since its last downgrade two days ago, it believes investors will turn even more cautious as the current flood in Thailand is not showing any signs of subsiding.
'We foresee further downside risks should the flood situation persist, which could compel the bankers of TYK Capital's privatisation offer to have second thoughts over the proposal,' it said.
On Tuesday, Engtek released an official statement on Bursa Malaysia regarding its Thailand operations amid existing floods in the Ayutthaya province.
The management has confirmed that operations in both its Rojana and Hi-Tech Industrial Park were suspended, while production in other facilities were also experiencing disruptions as their major customers in Thailand are situated in the flood-hit areas.
'The announcement did not come as a surprise as we highlighted previously that all five industrial estates in Ayutthaya have been confirmed to be inundated by water by the Thai army. Given the significant presence of most HDD component manufacturers within the flood-hit province, we continue to expect the negative developments to take its toll on the entire HDD component supply chain,' it said.
OSK Research said Thailand contributes 75% of Engtek's sales. With a total 400-500 CNCs installed, Engtek's two factories in the Ayutthaya province supply some 40% of its total production.
'While we believe management would attempt to mitigate any near-term production shortfall by increasing the production from its existing facilities in China, Philippines and Malaysia, we opine what is more of a concern here is that Thailand typically contributes 75% of its consolidated sales,' it said.
OSK Research said given the presence of almost all major HDD makers in the region, i.e. Western Digital, Seagate, Hitachi, and Toshiba.
The research house said due to the severity of the aftermath damage, the entire HDD supply chain is likely to be hit and we foresee downside risks not just on its Thai facilities but also its existing operations in the rest of the region. 'Restoration to pre-flood production level would depend largely on how fast all the HDD component manufacturers can shift their respective production out of Thailand in the immediate term and how soon the flood in Thailand would subside in the near term,' it pointed out.
OSK Research said due to the fluidity of the situation with all of the flood-hit industrial parks sealed off by the Thai army as a precaution, the magnitude of losses suffered remains unknown at this point of time.
'Although we make no changes to our forecasts for now, we foresee a difficult 4Q11 given the widespread aftermath impact. Should the monsoon rains subside by the end of this month, realignment or replacement of machineries will take at least another two to three months and hence, we expect production to normalise only by 2Q12 in our base case scenario,' it said.
Labels: ENG
Discussions
Be the first to like this. Showing 34 of 34 comments
We would never downngrade a industry because of natural disaster ya. Period. Period.
2011-10-20 00:02
Then all the research houses and financial institutiions in Japan should downgrade all their listed industries & companies world wide because of Sunami and earthquakes strucked in Japan few months ago.
2011-10-20 02:17
time to buy....hehe...i noticed most times when RH give a sell call the stock price went opposite. May be they want to pick up cheap :)
2011-10-20 12:00
haha, dont simply use my name and said buy or sell. yours all are pro should be able justify.
2011-10-20 14:35
Can earn quick $$$ mah....now 1.55-1.60...good time to collect back....haha
2011-10-20 16:48
better still if he can collect back at 1.24. Too bad not many willing to sell at this price. Else me too will collect.
2011-10-20 16:50
Probably Dato knew what is going on and sell first and later buy back which is happen in M Flour. Dato hv previlage info (inside) and we are outside just guessing....hehehe..we may get caught with oue pants down,
2011-10-20 23:45
yaloh, experience not enough. But would I cut loss now? No. Because I can stand longer than crocodile. Am I still have power to collect even price drop below <1.2? Yes. Dont believe? see how lah. I just worry 2 things: company bankrupt or immediate privatisation price < 2... then haha.... Otherwise one day, dato still want to privatisation after eat enough dimsum....
2011-10-21 08:41
Please dont be emotional follow people throw the stock if u buy on price > 1.8. If you want throw please throw it early. Otherwise keep it. If u simply throw then u only can become crocodile dimsum immediately even no definite answer come out (Mid November). This advice is for those not buying large portion. If yes, please follow ck tan and cut loss partially. At this moment if u want buy at price 1.4-1.5 can, just small portion by small portion like ~ 500 shares. Richard say is correct. But not clearly for those who still have interest to continue play with this stock.
2011-10-21 08:56
ya why not? So this is the reason we should throw it now? All of you are pro. I just share my viewpoint only. As i said early, throw or buy i can't make decision for u. If u think Eng can reach to historical price < 1 then, please wait lah to collect at that price or better sell off all now. Ok?
2011-10-21 09:19
Please lah bro, people play with this counter sure will know the historical. Dont pretend u are only one expert and know everything.
2011-10-21 09:54
I feel we should be more constructive and focussed, less vindictive and emotional. This portal is supposed to mutually beneficial, sharing info, experience and expertise. Lets cool down.
After the offer came, the situation in US, Europe worsened. I suggested to CK, the deal may be aborted. I caution only. It went below 2.00 Turn over low. Then the floods came. Selling intensify and the rest we know.
Irrespective of our position, if you are a punter, we should have followed the trend. Remember the golden rule. Don't go against the trend. Leave emotions aside. Live to find another day etc.
I am no exception even frankly after 40 years. So guys, take all these with a pinch of salt. In heavy weather like now, I agree charts, fundamentals won't work well. Even HSBC the rock falls.
I am not offering a solution. I am pleading for cool heads. I really don't know how low it will go. There is danger of more bad news to come. It will take a while to find a true bottom.
Yes, don't believe all the news especially from broking houses. Always use your own judgement, why do people buy or sell. Think carefully, not forgetting the overall trend, volume at that point in time.
There are still some counters for long term. Maybe unload some Eng to get back 12-15 % return in the same time-frame or sell-off, buy back much lower. Just for discussion only Thanks
2011-10-21 10:05
Hi mikenkh, I agree with what u said. myself also feel that i talk a lot bullshit things but not related much to Eng case. No point, i still want to fight with someone but nothing much helpful result against Eng case. Who want to know historical please study. I am not technical or news reporter. Here i just share my respectful feeling and feedback only. Technical or historical left to those pro lah.
2011-10-21 10:15
? Why u still want to continue topic with me? I agree mikenkh is on the point he said we should cooling down, dont said the useless thing here. In previous i also mention sell right? Why not sell? Are u crazy if u buy large amount but still hold it?
2011-10-21 10:26
richard, why must keep on kacau those holding ENG TEK shares. If you are not holding any of ENG TEK shares then pls dont kacau. Whether we want to buy or sell it is up to us and i dont see the price falling any futher. Its holding between 1.55-1.60.
2011-10-21 10:40
Hi Gan and Lim. Please agree to disagree. All said and done must be in good faith. Even Soros and Buffet made mistakes. But we must learn to rise from the ashes. Live to fight another day. Just a little food for thought.
It is not absolutely necessary to predict the actual lowest price but more vital to know it can go down some more beause of unfavourable factors or catalytic circumstances. All things considered, this is the more likely case. The trend is obvious already. I believe the buying are solely those who sold much higher returning for another meal.
Frankly only the die-hearts are averaging down now. There will be more selling if the price goes up with volume. There again its another chance to unload if you like. It is unwise to do anything now. There is no volume. We also wait lah.
The point I want to get across is to recognise and trade with the trend in stages be safer. Be patient.
2011-10-21 10:55
kamelads you are right, as long as the price stood above 1.54 support level , its consider stable and safe at this moment. ignore such a silly question...
2011-10-21 10:59
No apology please. If yes i also said apology because i cant answer u question not because i dont know, is because i think this is the responsible for all of u go and study company background yourself, before buy in any share. Nobody got this responsibility to told u here.
2011-10-21 11:06
peace brother. I definately agreed with mikenkh. We shld debate/share info constructively and agree to disagree. I believe this is the main purpose of this forum. I don't know where the price will move up/down....even RH/Expert can't tell.....do they but i hope it will move upwards.
2011-10-21 11:11
ya i quite peace now. But somebody attitude/saying really.... as my name ganasai. "simple question lah", "sad/malu behind lah"... Dont talk any success or fail if basic thing like respect people also dont know.
2011-10-21 11:14
seems like it gets some support at RM1.56-RM1.57 today. good time to go in now or wait longer first?
2011-10-21 11:17
Yes, i define that is silly question as everybody know the company history low,the past is past. For technically wise its quite safe and low at this level unless it broke down to 1.54 level,that is another story. u seems to advice but acually u are challenge and disturb everybody emotion.. got it?
2011-10-21 11:24
please stop lah. Even my name is like this, should not be respect? You not allow people got such name? You not allow father give me this name? Please lah. Let us go back the share discussion better.
2011-10-21 11:32
Richard,
No comment. I don't want to get involved in the feud between you two. Me will exit from here. Happy trading. :)
2011-10-21 11:33
I think my name like this wont hurt people. I just hurt myself, because sometimes i feel i am ganasai, really dont want to lose. But if u continue said "sad", "malu" aganist other people, please stop now.
2011-10-21 11:35
aiya, u expect it to go down somemore on next monday but u ask others to buy pulak.
2011-10-21 17:17
please, if u want comment or feedback please go ahead just dont refer me in. thanks.
2011-10-21 17:22
up to him lah, different people different situation, whether when i avg and how much i avg only i know. Ok? Please dont follow me, and follow richard expert.
2011-10-23 01:23
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Well said and research but...u know let me downgrade OSK research. OSK unit trust top 5 shareholdings across the funds is CY PARK Fabers TImedotcom. Look at their price performance over time.It is no brainer holdings. For us look at the name of their top shareholdings will scare u off.
2011-10-20 00:00