Perdana Petroleum - Turnaround far from fleeting

Date: 
2014-01-10
Firm: 
CIMB
Stock: 
Price Target: 
2.00
Price Call: 
BUY
Last Price: 
0.48
Upside/Downside: 
+1.52 (316.67%)
Target RM2.00 (Stock Rating: ADD)

After a strong earnings turnaround in FY13, Perdana is set to expand its fleet this year, potentially adding more vessels than the two that we had initially expected. The timing is good as the operating environment in the marine support space has been very conducive, with improvement in charter and utilisation rates. We maintain our forecasts for now and continue to value the stock at a CY15 P/E of 15.8x, applying a 30% discount to the average P/E of the oil & gas big caps. The stronger earnings uptick expected in FY14 is the potential re-rating catalyst that supports our Add call.

What Happened 
On 24 Dec 2013, we wrote that Perdana had taken delivery of its 16th vessel, a work barge named Perdana Protector. We understand that the company is likely to add at least two more vessels to the two new work barges, namely, Perdana Resolute and SK312, we had expected for this year (Figure 1). Perdana Resolute and SK312 have been earmarked to work for the company's largest shareholder, Dayang (DEHB MK, Not Rated). 

What We Think 
We are thrilled that Perdana is swiftly expanding its fleet, clearly taking advantage of the increase in charter and utilisation rates. The company currently fetches a charter rate of around US$2/HP for a 5,000HP anchor handling tug supply vessel, higher than US$1.50-1.80 netted last year. Meanwhile, the company's utilisation rate shot up to a robust 83% in 3Q13 from an estimated 74% in 3Q12. There is definitely room for expansion as Perdana's net gearing stood at only 0.6x as at 30 Sep 2013. Furthermore, we are encouraged that there is potentially a ready customer for the new vessels. We understand that Dayang is likely to charter at least one of the new vessels on a long-term basis. Currently, around 65% of Perdana's working vessels are on long-term charters, which help to provide stability to the company's earnings. A new work barge could chip in around RM5m in net profit p.a. 

What You Should Do 
Accumulate the stock and ride the wave of improvement in Perdana's operating environment. After a strong earnings turnaround in FY13, we expect the positive momentum to continue in FY14 as the company expands its fleet. With an average age of less than four years, the company's fleet is among the youngest in Malaysia's marine support space.

Discussions
1 person likes this. Showing 1 of 1 comments

BURSAMASTER

believe it should touch 2.00 by CNY as the buying momemtum from funds especially EPF is very strong

2014-01-12 08:53

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