The 5 Rules of Investing by Cold Eye (冷眼) - kcchongnz

5 Rules of Investing by Cold Eye - APM [Pass]

Tan KW
Publish date: Sun, 11 Aug 2013, 09:41 PM
Tan KW
0 431,572
Original discussion on http://klse.i3investor.com/servlets/forum/900214344.jsp

Cold Eye 5 yardsticks presentation by Cold Eyed - http://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/kianweiaritcles/26614.jsp

This is an effort to collect the discussions and tidy up in a blog format.

5 Rules of Investing by Cold Eye - Portfolio Simulation - http://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/5_rules_cold_eye_kcchongnz/34658.jsp

Posted by kcchongnz > Mar 20, 2013 10:16 AM Report Abuse 

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Cold Eye’s yardsticks for APM Financial year ended 31/12/2013 

Yardstick 1: ROE 
APM reported an earnings of 113.6m for the common shareholders, or EPS 56.4 sen for the year ended 31/12/2012. With its net asset backing per share of 4.40, ROE is 12.8%. Not bad at all if we take into consideration that the ROE was achieved with no debts. 

Yardstick 2: Cash flow and free cash flow 
The cash flow from operations (CFFO) is 142m. This is 114% of its earnings of 125.2m. This shows the quality of the earnings is good. After spending 48m in capital expenses, there is a free cash flow (FCF) of 94.2m left which APM has already announced that they are going to pay dividends of 64.5m, or 32 sen per share. This FCF is at 8% (<5%) of its revenue which is good. Overall APM’s cash flow and free cash flow are excellent. 

Yardstick 3: PER 
APM is trading at 4.96 today. With EPS of 56.4 sen, the PE ratio is only 8.8 (<10). This is a reasonably low PE and considering that it is a debt free company and hence low risk. 

Yardstick 4: Dividend yield 
APM announced that it is going to pay a dividend of 32 sen for last financial year, or a dividend yield of 6.5%, close to twice the FD rate. Very good indeed. 

Yardstick 5: NTA 
The net asset backing per share of APM is 4.40. Hence at a share price of 4.96, the price-to-book value is 1.1 (<1.5). It is inexpensive. 43% of its assets is hard cash. 

APM meets all criteria of Cold Eye as an investment grade stock. For those who is going to harp on its ill-liquidity, the table below shows its long and short-term return from 2 weeks to 5 years. 

APM 4.96 20/03/2013


Period 2-week 6-month 1-year 2-year 3-year 4-year 5-year
Price 5 4.96 4.4 4.85 3 1.5 2
Return of stock -0.80% 0.00% 12.70% 2.30% 65.30% 230.70% 148.00%
CAR -19% 0.00% 12.70% 1.10% 18.20% 34.80% 19.90%
Dividend 0 2.50% 4.30% 3.10% 3.30% 8.00% 5.00%
Stock price appreciation -19% -2.50% 8.40% -2.00% 14.90% 26.80% 14.90%

If one has held this share for 5 years, his return on investment is 148%, or of a compounded annual return of 20%, double that of the return of the market. Revenue and earnings has grown from 7% and 16% respectively from 5 years ago. 

Oh I just bought this stock not long ago, but I am not asking anyone to buy so that I can sell him high.

 

 

 

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