Personal opinions today:

In the Brexit negotiations, the Irish border trade agreement made progress, boosting the pound, and the pound was 1.31. At the same time, the bullish euro, EURUSD rose and hit the 1.15 mark. However, the market is still concerned about the results of US inflation data. The yield of US Treasury bonds is still high, and the US dollar is supported to curb the rise of the euro and the pound. At the same time, the US dollar continued to be high, and the US dollar against other major currencies also curbed the increase.

Similarly, the US Treasury bond yields was high, the US Dow is still weak, and the trend is maintaining downward. Asian stock markets are generally following the trend. The Nikkei index continued its downward trend, and the US dollar remained at 113 mark against the yen. The overall development of USDJPY is still downward.

Tonight and tomorrow night, the United States announced the September production price index and consumer price index and other related inflation data, US Treasury yields reached short-term highs, gold prices and crude oil prices, the rise was blocked.

Today's suggestion:

EURUS​D

1.1535/1.1550 resistance

1.1465/1.1450 support

Although the Brexit negotiations are progressing well, it will help boost the euro. However, the market is watching the performance of US inflation data. That inflation expectations are heating up, and it is difficult for the euro to break through the resistance. But the market sentiment has changed. If the US inflation data shows signs of slowing down, the dollar will fall, which will cause the euro to rebound. In the short-term technical position, the euro is concerned with one of the important support of 1.1450 against the US dollar, with a short-term resistance of 1.1535.

GBP​USD

1.3175/1.3200 resistance

1.3095/1.3080 support

Market rumors, the Brexit negotiations are expected to reach a bilateral trade agreement between the EU summit before the end of the month, market optimism boosts the pound. It is currently estimated that the Brexit negotiations are optimistic, and the fundamentals support the rise of the pound. However, before the US inflation data is released, under the strong dollar, there is still a chance to curb the pound, and it is recommended to be cautious when trading. Special attention to the 1.3175 and 1.3200 resistance levels.

USD​CHF

0.9935/0.9950 resistance

0.9885/0.9865 support

Earlier, the euro remained weak and indirectly curbed the Swiss franc. Switzerland’s unemployment rate improved in September and the CHF did not rebound. However, the US dollar against the Swiss franc has been below the resistance of 0.9950 and 0.9970, the euro rebounded yesterday, the dollar fell against the Swiss franc. Overall trend still needs to pay attention to the euro-dollar change, because the market is eager to see the inflation data released by the US this week, which may curb the euro's rise, but also to curb the Swiss franc. If EURUSD have a chance to rise further, it will help the dollar fall against the Swiss franc.

USD/JPY

113.25/113.40 resistance

112.65/112.50 support

The Nikkei index continued to fall, becoming one of the important factors for the dollar to fall against the yen. In addition, after the quarterly settlement in Japan, the return of funds to Japan will help the yen rise. Moreover, the US government is aiming to suppress Japan's trade and tighten the deficit in response to Japan's trade deficit with the United States. There are rumors that the Bank of Japan continues to reduce its holdings of US Treasury bonds, which may trigger a new round of strong yen. In the medium-term goal, the USD/JPY trend has the opportunity to test the 111 level.

AUDUSD

0.7145/0.7160 resistance

0.7090/0.7075 support

The recent Australian economic indicators data is not good, Australia September consumer confidence index also fell, but the US dollar adjusted on the eve of the US inflation data release, the commodity copper price rose, and the Australian dollar. Technically, the Australian dollar broke the resistance of 0.7090 against the US dollar, which will help improve the trend of AUDUSD. However, it must be noted that before the release of US inflation data, the US dollar is strong, or it can curb the rise of the Australian dollar.

NZDUSD

0.6530/0.6550 resistance

0.6475/0.6460 support

The Australian dollar rose, the New Zealand dollar followed the pace of rising, initially challenging 6480 resistance. The market waits for US inflation data, the US dollar adjusts, and the short-term New Zealand dollar benefits. Technically, the New Zealand dollar trend is based on another resistance of 0.6520 and 0.6535.

USD/CAD

1.2950/1.2965 resistance

1.2905/1.2885 support

The oil price rebounded from $73 and remained strong in the short term, with a bullish Canadian dollar. Remember that the Canadian job market report and trade accounts improved significantly last week, and the fundamentals were positive for the Canadian dollar. If the dollar is weaker or the oil price rises further, the dollar will have the opportunity to test the 1.2905 and 1.2885 support.

EUR/GBP

0.8770/0.8785 resistance

0.8730/0.8715 support

The Brexit negotiations are progressing well, boosting the pound again, the pound is strong, and the euro continues to fall against the pound. If there is good news in the Eurozone, or if there is a bad situation in the UK, it will boost the EUR/GBP, otherwise the EUR/GBP trend will continue to decline.

EURCHF

1.1420/1.1435 resistance

1.1380/1.1375 support

Technically, the euro continued to adjust to the downside against the Swiss franc. Fundamentally, the euro is weaker than the Swiss franc. If the euro has a chance to rise against the dollar, the Swiss franc will stand still against the dollar and the euro will have a chance to rise against the Swiss franc.

XAUUSD

1186/1184 support

1193/1195 resistance

US Treasury yields continued to rise, funds flowed to US Treasury bonds, gold was downward, and could not break the resistance. The market is looking at US inflation data and expects the Fed to maintain a rate hike. Before the market waits for US inflation data, it is believed that gold could not go further up. The important resistance as 1,200 US dollars in middle term.

US crude oil futures:

75.35/75.70 resistance

74.05/73.75 support

The fundamentals are bullish on oil prices, supporting the rise in oil prices. Note that the United States announced the amount of crude oil inventories, it maybe affecting oil price changes in next few days. It is recommended to pay attention to crude oil inventory data to aware the oil prices fluctuate. If inventories increase significantly, oil prices are expected to be further supported and are expected to test $75 resistance or maybe close to $76.

BTCUSD:

6700 / 6850 resistance

6330 /6260 support

US 10 year treasury bond yield hit 7 year record high, capital funds transfer a lot to bond . Cryptocurrency have a downside risk. Now, the bitcoin maintain 6500. The market observe the performance of the US CPI tomorrow, the bitcoin keep downward. 

Hope you enjoy and have happy trade!  The content is for reference only. Please do ensure that you understand the risk.

Information provided by ATFX, Chief Analyst of Asia Pacific: Martin Lam

Registered Australian Accountant/ Certified Professional Manager / Certified Financial
Advisor Experienced Investor / Media Market Commentator Martin Lam has Over 17 years’ experience in global investment market. Familiar with the worldwide stock indices, precious metals such Gold and Silver, Crude oil and Forex. He operated Martin Currency Trading Company and had partnership with a number of well-known international financial corporations and institutions. Before he join ATFX, he was TeleTrade Greater China development and Sales Director. Mr. Lam attends Hong Kong Now TV and China CCTV finance channel once a week. He also had regularly invited by different media, such as DBC Digital Financial Channel, Hong Kong Economic Times, The Standard, Ming Pao to share his experience to trade in Forex, Precious metals, Crude oil and worldwide stock indices. 
Contact: cs.gm@atfx.com or wechat: ATFX_China

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