Personal opinions today:

 

On the last trading day of 2018, the investment market is expected to remain volatile, specifically in the stock market. The reason comes from the progress made in Sino-US trade negotiations. China is willing to accept the request of the US and plans to hold talks next week. In this regard, it is estimated that the stock market will be boosted by strengthening the smooth development between China and the United States trade cooperation.

 

In the foreign exchange market, the United States Senate House was unable to reach a funding proposal, resulting in the US government failing to obtain sufficient funds for operation. Some US governments need to close down and operate, causing negative effects on the US dollar and fluctuations in investment sentiment. The dollar is expected to fall. If the current US index falls below 96.5 and the daily chart is below the 10 and 20-day moving averages, the US Index has a chance to break the 96 mark and further decline. If the US dollar index continues to fall, it is estimated that gold prices are still high, and European currencies and other major currencies still have opportunities to rise.

 

Today's suggestion:

 

EURUSD

1.1460/1.1480 resistance

1.1420/1.1400 support

At present, the market situation, the dollar exchange rate is weak, and it is expected to be more euros. However, due to the fact that there is no data released in the Eurozone on the eve of New Year's Day, the Euro's movement is expected to remain within 1.14 to 1.15.

 

GBPUSD

1.2725/1.2740 resistance

1.2655/1.2640 support

The risk of Brexit exists. The British government must pass the draft for Brexit next March, otherwise the British government will be responsible for all risks after the Brexit. Therefore, the pound will continue to be downside risk in the short term. Technically, the trend is still bearish.

 

USDCHF

0.9820/0.9800 support

0.9875/0.9890 resistance

The U.S. government’s financial appropriation has still not been passed, the bearish dollar is in short, the European currency almost up, and the indirect Swiss franc is likely to continue to rise. Technically, the Swiss Franc continues to follow the pace and direction of the Euro. If the euro does not break through 1.15, it is estimated that the USDCHF will stop at 0.9800 support.

 

USD/JPY

110.75/110.90 resistance

110.25/110.10 support

Although recent data, such as Japan's unemployment rate has risen, core CPl has fallen, retail sales have fallen, and industrial production has also fallen, such as a negative yen, but the market estimates that the first quarter of next year, the Japanese government and central bank need to consider broadening the loose monetary policy, there are Opportunity is bad for the yen. Coupled with the easing of the Sino-US trade war, there is an opportunity to drive the US Dow and the Asia-Pacific stock market to rise. As same as usual, the stock market up, it may drive the dollar to rise against the yen.

 

AUDUSD

0.7035/0.7020 support

0.7075/0.7115 resistance

It is expected that the Sino-US trade war will restart negotiations next week. At present, the news from both sides is also positive. It is expected to improve trade relations and promote Australia's economic growth. If the above fundamentals improve, it will help the Australian dollar against the US dollar. Technically, you can see the first target of 0.7075, and then look forward to 0.7115 resistance.

 

NZDUSD

0.6700/0.6690 support

0.6745/0.6760 resistance

The Sino-US trade war has eased. Sino-US have planned to restart the meeting in early January. At present, the relationship seems positive and will help the New Zealand economy and the currency (NZ dollar). At present, the market is watching the further development after the holiday, and the New Zealand dollar has a short-term trend. Expected to support the 0.6700 support range, expects the New Zealand dollar to have the opportunity to test the resistance of 0.6745/0.6760.

 

USD/CAD

1.3640/1.3665 resistance

1.3590/1.3570 support

The easing of Sino-US trade war relations will help normalize international trade and bring benefits to the Canadian economy. If the US crude oil price can rebound, indirect bullish Canadian dollar trend, the dollar against the Canadian dollar is expected to return to below 1.3600. Technically, if crude oil prices weaken, the Canadian dollar may also weaken further. It is recommended to trade the US dollar against the Canadian dollar, paying attention to the development of oil price performance and the Canadian dollar.

 

EUR/GBP

0.9040/0.9055 resistance

0.9005/0.8990 support

Under the Brexit risk assessment, the euro zone economy and interest rate market outlook is better than the UK, and the euro is expected to rise higher against the pound. Technically, short-term concerns can be maintained at 0.8990 support. If the euro continues to rise against the pound, it will see resistance at 0.9070 in the short term.

 

EURCHF

1.1300/1.1320 resistance

1.1240/1.1220 support

The trend of the EUR and CHF followed the performance of the dollar, but the trend was similar. The short-term fluctuation of the EURCHF remains narrow, and it is recommended to pay attention to the above proposed range of volatility.

 

XAUUSD

1281/1284 resistance

1274/1271 support

The US government's financial allocation has not yet been passed, some government departments continue to operate, risk aversion and investment risks rise, driving gold to rise. If the US government's financial allocation is finally passed, it is believed that the market risk can be reduced and the price of gold could be fall. At present, th Sino and US negotiation seems to be good. If the US Dow and global stock markets rise before and after the holidays, you must pay attention to the downside risks of gold.

 

US crude oil futures:

47.00/47.40 resistance

44.75/44.35 support

OPEC will start production resistance from January. Earlier, some financial institutions expected strong retail sales in the US this year, which is expected to stimulate demand for crude oil. The Sino-US trade war is expected to ease and there is an opportunity to drive crude oil prices to rebound. At present, the technical resistance is expected to be in the range of US47. In the short term, attention will be paid to the breakthrough in the pattern of 44 to 47 US dollars.

 

US Dow Jones Industrial Index Futures US30

23685/24025 resistance

22905/22685 support

The current Sino-US trade war has eased, and at the same time it is expected to make progress, investment sentiment may rise, and it is expected to boost US Dow Jones index, if keep the sentiment the US Dow may test 24025.

 

BTCUSD:

4000 / 4200 resistance 

3450 / 3250  support 

After the bitcoin correction, the US dollar weaker. It seems to support most of the crypto currencies. Now the Bitcoin at US3450 is a key support. Also 4000 and 4200 as strong resistance. Keep watching the range of the momentum, and looking any breakthrough.

 

Enjoy trading!  The content is for reference only. Please do ensure that you understand the risk.

 

Information provided by AT Global Market, Chief Analyst of Asia Pacific: Martin Lam

Registered Australian Accountant/ Certified Professional Manager / Certified Financial Advisor Experienced Investor / Media Market Commentator Martin Lam has Over 17 years’ experience in global investment market. Familiar with the worldwide stock indices, precious metals such Gold and Silver, Crude oil and Forex. He operated Martin Currency Trading Company and had partnership with a number of well-known international financial corporations and institutions. Before he join ATFX, he was TeleTrade Greater China development and Sales Director. Mr. Lam attends Hong Kong Now TV and China CCTV finance channel once a week. He also had regularly invited by different media, such as DBC Digital Financial Channel, Hong Kong Economic Times, The Standard, Ming Pao to share his experience to trade in Forex, Precious metals, Crude oil and worldwide stock indices. 
Contact: cs.gm@atfx.com or wechat: ATFX_China

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