Personal opinions today

 

The US ADP job data in February was lower than the market estimate, only reported 183,000, but the US trade deficit expanded to 59.8 billion US dollars, which is bullish the US dollar. The Bank of Canada announced the interest rate decision, Bank of Canada keeping interested rates unchanged, and the monetary policy orientation remained. No any surprise in the monetary policy the Canadian dollar bearish. However, the crude oil prices remained strong, support the Canadian dollar and limiting the decline of the Canadian dollar. 

 

The British Parliament continues to discuss the Brexit agreement, but the news that the British Prime Minister and the European Commission will meet to discuss the Brexit agreement, including move the Brexit deadline and boosting the pound. On the schedule, the British Prime Minister’s will discuss with the EU will end this weekend, and the results of will be held next week by the British Parliament. The pound has uncertainties.

 

Today, the euro zone announced the fourth quarter job data and the fourth quarter GDP, the relevant data performance, has an important impact on the euro, and affected by the ECB's interest rate and monetary policy decisions tonight. Then, the US initial jobless claims also important, the market is watching. If the data is lower than last week, it is estimated bullish dollar, bullish US Dow and crude oil prices, but bearish gold prices.

 

Today's suggestion:

 

EURUSD 

1.1320/1.1335 resistance

1.1280/1.1265 support

Today, the euro zone announced the fourth quarter job data and fourth quarter gross domestic product. At 19:45 Beijing time, the European Central Bank announced the interest rate decision. The market closely followed the European Central Bank’s monetary policy stance and revealed the size of the European Central Bank’s bond purchase. If the European Central Bank continues to maintain the existing easing policy and the size of the bond purchase, it will likely be negative for the euro. It is recommended to pay special attention to the fluctuation of the euro this evening.

 

GBPUSD

1.3205/1.3225 resistance

1.3140/1.3120 support

The Brexit deadline is approaching and the British Parliament continues to discuss. The current news means that British parliamentarians continue to oppose the proposed amendments proposed by the British Prime Minister, and the pound is facing downside risks. Only the British Prime Minister will be ready to travel to meet the European Commission, discuss the extension of the Brexit deadline, the news positive to the pound. Technically, the pound has the opportunity to test 1.3120 support. For resistance, pay attention to 1.3205 and 1.3225.

 

USDCHF 

1.0025/1.0005 support

1.0065/1.0085 resistance

The European Central Bank’s interest rate, the Swiss franc, which is closely related to the euro, may be affected. If the euro weakens, there is a chance to affect Swiss franc fall. Technically, the USD/CHF has the opportunity to test resistance at 1.0065 or 1.0085, with reference to support 1.0025 or 1.0005. If you lose 1.0005 support, it has the opportunity to test 0.9975.

 

USDJPY

111.95/112.15 resistance

111.45/111.25 support

The US Dow and Japan’s Nikkei index have adjusted. The Nikkei index fell over a hundred points after the market opened this morning, and the dollar weakened against the yen. Technically, USDJPY has the opportunity to test 111.45 support. It is recommended to keep an eye on global stock market changes, especially the changes in the US Dow and Japan's Nikkei index, to determine market sentiment and the direction of the US dollar against the yen. The US initial jobless claims tonight is the only reference data. The performance may influence the Dow trend and the USD/JPY trend, and the market is watching.

 

AUDUSD 

0.7020/0.7005 support

0.7065/0.7080 resistance

Australia GDP in the fourth quarter was slowdown, and the data was negative for the Australian dollar. The market is paying close attention to the development of Sino-US trade wars. There is no any positive news, and the Australian dollar is weak against the US dollar. Technically, 0.7050 support falls, and the AUD going down. It may test 0.7005 important support.

 

NZDUSD 

0.6765/0.6750 support

0.6800/0.6815 resistance

The Australia dollar down trend, the New Zealand dollar also fell. At present, the market is paying close attention to the development of Sino-US trade wars. If there is no any good news to boost the economy, the New Zealand dollar continues to be weak. In the short-term technical, attention to 0.6765 support can be used as an important support reference.

 

USDCAD

1.3455/1.3470 resistance

1.3385/1.3370 support

The United States API crude oil inventories increased significantly, Canada's table resolution results to maintain a loose monetary policy, which subsequently affected the Canadian dollar fell, negative for the Canadian dollar. The market is paying attention to the further performance of US employment data and the trend of crude oil futures prices, which may affect the development of the US dollar against the Canadian dollar in the short term.

 

EURGBP

0.8630/0.8650 resistance

0.8580/0.8560 support

Technically, the euro continued to test 0.8580 and 0.8560 support against the pound. Uncertainty in the Brexit vote and the deadline, if the pound falls, there is an opportunity for the euro to rise against the pound. As the Brexit news continues to dominate the pound. In addition, the ECB's interest rate decision results announced tonight, the market is concerned about the impact of the euro, investment in the euro against the pound, must pay attention to large fluctuations.

 

EURCHF 

1.1370/1.1390 ​​resistance

1.1345/1.1330 support

Before the European Central Bank's interest rate decision, the euro trend was weaker than the Swiss franc, and the euro had a chance to adjust against the Swiss franc, and the test was supported by 1.1345 or 1.1330. The market is watching the ECB's monetary policy stance may continue to affect the performance of the euro, while affecting the fluctuation of the euro against the Swiss franc, please pay attention.

 

XAUUSD 

1290/1293 resistance

1283/1280 support

The market expects US job market growth, and US job data is performing well, with bullish dollars and bearish gold. In addition, the market expects the end of the Sino-US trade war at the end of this month, boosting the investment climate, supporting global stock markets, safe-haven funds out of the gold market, and gold prices continue to have a chance to test low. At the moment, we are paying close attention to Friday's US non-farm payrolls, unemployment rate and average wage performance, and determine the trend of gold. Current resistance is referenced at $1290 and $1,293. Support bits 1283 or 1280.

 

US crude oil futures:

57.05/57.40 resistance

55.80/55.55 support

US crude oil inventories have increased substantially, and crude oil futures prices are downside risk. As the market is concerned about the US job market, the Fed’s release of the economic status report is positive in the Beige Book, which is expected to boost crude oil prices. Technically, continue to pay attention to 55.80 and 55.55 support, with important support at $55. If the crude oil price stays above $55 in the short term, the trend is still expected to test the resistance of 57.05 and 57.40.

 

US Dow Jones Industrial Index Futures US30

25745/25900 resistance

25620/25530 support

The market is waiting the US non-farm payroll and other important data on Friday, the US Dow adjustment. Also, the US President said he cannot confirm make a deal with China. Dow fell since the market sentiment. Technically, the US Dow is adjusting its cycle. If it maintains above the support of 25620 and 25530, it represents a good investment climate. However, if the closing is below the support level, pay attention to the depth adjustment and the target will look at 25160 or 24480 support. Looking forward to the job data released on Friday, the stimulus will boost the stock market.

 

BTCUSD:

3680  / 3520 support

3850 / 3950 resistance 

The Federal Reserve statement, involved the economic outlook and interest rate policy, supported the bitcoin. Next, the market is waiting the US job data this week, the price may be staying back a bit. Now assumed the Fed is considering to stop interest rate hikes this first half year. It could be increasing the cryptocurrency market demand sharply.  If USD strengthen Bitcoin weakness. If the dollar depreciation that will be pushed up the price of bitcoin.

 

Enjoy trading!  The content is for reference only. Please do ensure that you understand the risk.

 

Information provided by AT Global Market, Chief Analyst of Asia Pacific: Martin Lam

Registered Australian Accountant/ Certified Professional Manager / Certified Financial Advisor Experienced Investor / Media Market Commentator Martin Lam has Over 17 years’ experience in global investment market. Familiar with the worldwide stock indices, precious metals such Gold and Silver, Crude oil and Forex. He operated Martin Currency Trading Company and had partnership with a number of well-known international financial corporations and institutions. Before he join ATFX, he was TeleTrade Greater China development and Sales Director. Mr. Lam attends Hong Kong Now TV and China CCTV finance channel once a week. He also had regularly invited by different media, such as DBC Digital Financial Channel, Hong Kong Economic Times, The Standard, Ming Pao to share his experience to trade in Forex, Precious metals, Crude oil and worldwide stock indices. 
Contact: cs.gm@atfx.com or wechat: ATFX_China

Legal: AT Global Markets Limited (ATGM, registration number 24226 IBC 2017). ATGM is an International Business Company in Saint Vincent and the Grenadines. Registered address is : the Financial Services Centre, Stoney Ground, Kingstown, St.Vincent & the Grenadines.