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ATFX Market Outlook, 2019 Oct 2

 

Personal opinions today:

 

The RBA decision was in line with market estimates of a 25 basis point cut in the benchmark interest rate from 1% to 0.75%, the lowest interest rate in history. The reserve bank of Australia said the rate cut was in line with, although it did not indicate further rate cuts, but the market expected today's U.S. ADP employment change data and Friday's U.S. labor sector non-farm payrolls data to be higher than the previous value, limiting the Australian dollar's rise and had been falling. The New Zealand dollar has followed the Australian dollar, falling. Yesterday, the US ISM manufacturing PMI in September fell from the previous month and was lower than the last figure. Dow futures (US30) fell more than 300 points, and the dollar fell on concerns that the U.S. manufacturing sector is in a deep contraction and could spill over into services, hurting labor markets and economic growth. The economic outlook is uncertain, the stock market is volatile, and crude oil futures prices cannot avoid falling. Fortunately, U.S. API crude oil inventories fell, crude oil prices rose from low. The Japanese yen and gold rebounded as U.S. Dow futures fell last night, the dollar index fell, and assets returned, Dow futures fell, bullish on the yen and gold prices.

 

Global attention today focused on U.S. September ADP employment change data, to calculate Friday's U.S. non-farm payrolls and unemployment rate. At the same time, it can reflect whether the strength of the U.S. economy is in line with market expectations. If the U.S. manufacturing PMI disappointed the market as it did yesterday, the U.S. jobs data disappointed again today. Believe Dow futures continue to fall, gold prices and the yen are expected to continue to rise.

 

[Important financial data and events]

Note: * is the degree of importance

 

14:30 Switzerland monthly CPI in September **

20:15 U.S. ADP employment change in September ***

22:30 U.S. EIA crude oil inventories change **

 

Today's suggestion:

 

Euro/dollar

1.0945/1.0960 resistance

1.0900/1.0885 support

Yesterday, ECB President commented continued to affect the euro investment confidence, the Euro downward trend continues. Germany's final manufacturing PMI for September edged up slightly from its initial reading yesterday, but the Eurozone initial CPI rate for September still slowed, and the Euro fell to a low of 1.0925 in European trading hours. Later in U.S. trading hours, the U.S. ISM manufacturing PMI for September was weak, and the Euro rebounded, initially recovering 1.0925. Technical trend, the Euro trend is still weak; the trend fell to reference support at 1.0900 and 1.0885 support. It is advisable to keep an eye on whether the euro can be boosted by the economic data from Europe and the United States today. But it's more important to keep an eye on today's U.S. ADP employment change results. If the data does not meet expectations, the dollar trend bearish, bullish on Euro.

 

Pound against dollar

1.2320/1.2335 resistance

1.2235/1.2220 support

The situation in the UK is grim. With only one month to go before the deadline for the UK to leave Europe, the UK faces many uncertainties and challenges. The British prime minister has been publicising that he can solve the dilemma in the Brexit deals and make rational discussions and changes. While the market believes there is still reason to believe the UK prime minister can reverse the no-deal Brexit deadline and hopes the pound can recover its 1.2360 resistance, gains may be limited. The only short-term note today is U.S. ADP data results. If the data does not meet expectations, the dollar trend is bearish, bullish on pound.

 

Australian dollar to US dollar

0.6740/0.6755 resistance

0.6690/0.6675 support

Australian dollar trend continues to adjust, has been down 0.6685 support, lower see 0.6672 last night. Mainly by the reserve bank of Australia rate cut, the RBA did not mention whether it will further cut interest rates, the Australian dollar bearish continued. US ADP employment change data today, faced challenges, if the data did not meet expectations, the U.S. dollar trend negative, positive Australian and New Zealand dollar.

 

Dollar/yen

108.05/108.20 resistance

107.35/107.20 support

The ADP data follows yesterday's the weak US ISM manufacturing PMI data, which sent Dow futures down and the dollar down against the yen. If the U.S. ADP data does not meet expectations today, the dollar will have a chance to test lower support against the yen, with Dow and Nikkei futures down.

 

U.S. dollar against the  Canadian dollar

1.3235/1.3250 resistance

1.3190/1.3175 support

The reported a drop in API crude oil inventories, a bullish on oil prices, during the Canadian dollar. The Canadian dollar rebounded strongly last night, mainly due to a fall in the U.S. manufacturing purchasing managers' index in September, led by a fall in the dollar. Technically, the first target has reached 1.3205 support. The US  ADP job data is facing challenges today; if the data does not meet expectations, the dollar trend is bearish, then bullish on the Canadian dollar. Besides, under the influence of the international oil price situation, the decline of crude oil price has not improved. It suggests that the U.S. dollar against the Canadian dollar be affected by the fall in oil price.

 

US crude oil futures

54.55/55.05 resistance

53.25/52.90 support

U.S. crude oil futures fell yesterday after the Chicago purchasing managers index and the Dallas fed business activity index fell and below market expectations. And Saudi oil supplies are recovering, with prices falling yesterday. The US API crude oil inventory reduction, slightly to support crude oil prices. If today's U.S. ADP numbers are as good as expected, and expect the US-China trade talks going well next week, it would drive the crude oil futures prices higher in the future. But the market remains focused on whether the U.S. jobs data and if all jobs data continues to slow, that could be bearish for crude oil.

 

Gold

1490/1492 resistance

1470/1468 support

Technically, the gold price finally recovered support 1463, the downward eased. Dow futures fell as a U.S. manufacturing purchasing managers index fell. The inverse relationship between Dow futures and gold prices, which rebounded from their lows yesterday when Dow futures fell. The market is currently awaiting U.S. ADP employment change data today, and if the data beats expectations or Dow futures rebound, gold will be bearish. And vice versa.

 

U.S. Dow Jones futures US30

26830/27075 resistance

26530/26355 support

Despite market forecasts for U.S. job data growth, Dow futures fell yesterday after a disappointing U.S. manufacturing purchasing managers index ahead of today's ADP employment change data release and the official U.S. non-farm payroll data on Friday. During this time on the sidelines, Dow futures would limit volatility and continue to fall in the correction zone. Dow futures could recoup losses if the U.S. ADP data were better-than-expected and boosts stocks. Besides, the high-level trade talks between China and the United States coming next week, it could be expected to lift investment sentiment, which could affect bullish stocks.

 

BTCUSD:

9550 /10250 resistance

7885 / 7685 support

The US manufacturing purchase manager index fell, Down future fell and gold price rebounds. If today, the US ADP employment change below the market expectations. It could be bullish the gold price, and the Bitcoin price would follow. Technically, US7900 support is very important to support. Now it seems success to find support level, even the gold price fell. If once the rebounded, the bitcoin price would rose. The first target 9550 or10250 resistance

 

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