Personal opinions today:

 

U.S. ADP payrolls in September were below market expectations, and the market is expecting the US official September non-farm payrolls and unemployment rate to be weak as global financial markets focus today. If US September average wages fall below previous level, it will indirectly affect expected U.S. September inflation data and continue to affect the federal reserve's decision to cut interest rates till at the end of October. The Chicago and Dallas manufacturing PMI fell in September, followed by the U.S. manufacturing and services PMI, and ADP payrolls for September, all results were below market expectations. Continue to decline, the Dow futures fell, capital flow to the gold and the yen. U.S. interest rate futures immediately anticipated a higher chance of a fed rate cut, with Dow futures holding off losses and rebounding from lows, while gold and the yen gains.

 

If today's release of the US official U.S. non-farm payrolls. The market expected weak, which indirectly affect dollar bearish, have bullish gold and the yen. If U.S. data is weak, expect Dow futures and crude oil prices to be bearish. On the contrary, if today's U.S. jobs data and average wages are up from their previous levels, a higher rate could lower expectations of Fed rate cuts and hopefully boost production and consumption, and lower expectations of deflation, which would help lift the dollar and Dow futures. Bullish oil prices, bearish gold and yen,

 

[Important financial data and events]

Note: * is the degree of importance

 

09:30 RBA releases semi-annual financial stability report **

20:30 US unemployment rate and average wage in September ***

20:30 US non-farm payrolls in September ***

The next day 02:00 Fed chairman Powell speaks 

 

Today's suggestion:

 

Euro/dollar

1.0995/1.1015 resistance

1.0925/1.0905 support

The U.S. non-manufacturing PMI fell in September, while the Euro rebounded on the dollar's decline, recovering 1.0960 to 1.1100. Then European markets closed, the rise stopped, the Euro adjustment. European economic data were weak and the Euro remained weak, but when the U.S. data was weak, resistance could be found. Keep an eye on today's U.S. jobs data. If the dollar rebounds today after U.S. jobs data beat market expectations, the Euro could test 1.0925 or 1.0905 support.

 

 

Pound versus dollar

1.2400/1.2415 resistance

1.2270/1.2250 support

Less than a month, UK will leave Europe. Although, the British prime minister sent a letter to the European Union, presenting a new plan, expecting the EU to accept, easing the border issue in Northern Ireland and reducing the risk to the British economy. In the short term, if the EU does not accept the new proposal, the UK will continue to face uncertainties situations again. Today focused on U.S. non-farm payrolls for September, and if the data is weak and below expectations, pound could test the 1.24 resistance range again. If the data better than expected, pound would test 1.22 level.

 

Australian dollar to US dollar

0.6770/0.6785 resistance

0.6725/0.6710 support

The market will wait for the 13th round of trade talks next week.  Before that the US jobs data today were focus. If U.S. jobs data continues to be weak, the U.S. dollar will be bearish, while the Australian and New Zealand dollars will be bullish. If the AUD dollar rises, it is expected to break through the 0.6785 resistance and test the 0.68 level.

 

Dollar/yen

107.35/107.55 resistance

106.60/106.45 support

Trade frictions between the US and Europe escalated as the ISM manufacturing PMI and ADP data were weak in September. Dow futures fell sharply yesterday as the US non-manufacturing PMI index fell and factory orders only beat expectations, with the dollar following suit against the yen. If the U.S. non-farm payroll data falls below its previous level again today, the dollar will have a chance to test its support near 106.45 against the yen again, as well as Dow and Nikkei futures. On the contrary, 107.35 or 107.55 resistance is detected. Dow futures lead the dollar against the yen.

 

U.S. dollar against Canadian dollar

1.3355/1.3370 resistance

1.3290/1.3275 support

The U.S. manufacturing PMI fell in September, none manufacturing PMI and factory order fell as well. The price of crude oil fell yesterday after a test of $51 as markets fretted about trade frictions in the United States. Affected crude oil prices fell, the Canadian dollar did not benefit from the US dollar fell and rose. Weak economic data in the United States, trade frictions between the United States, Europe and the United States and China, uncertain international oil demand, crude oil prices still downtrend, The U.S. dollar against the Canadian dollar to test resistance. If the U.S. non-farm payroll falls below its previous level again today, crude oil prices will fall and the chances of the U.S. dollar rising against the Canadian dollar will increase. Or reverse if crude oil up.

 

United States crude oil futures

53.55/54.05 resistance

51.25/50.85 support

Manufacturing PMI fell for the third straight month and non-manufacturing PMI fell for the first time after the Chicago PMI and the Dallas Fed business activity index were below market expectations. Futures prices fell in the wake of weak U.S. ADP payrolls, which are expected to be weak today, bearish U.S. oil demand. Today's focus is on U.S. jobs and other data, which could be negative for oil price if the market forecast is negative.

 

Gold

1518/1520 resistance

1492/1490 support

Us manufacturing and non-manufacturing PMI and recent US jobs data fell, trade frictions between the US and Europe escalated, Dow futures fell and gold prices rebounded. If U.S. non-farm employment data beat expectations today or Dow futures rebound, it could be bearish for gold. Technical trend, resistance level US1518 and US1520 are concerned. Watch Dow futures, gold prices and Dow futures move in the opposite direction.

 

U.S. Dow Jones industrial average futures US30

26235/26355 resistance

26005/25885 support

U.S. ADP payroll, U.S. manufacturing and services PMI disappointed the market, and Dow futures fell. After Dow futures fell, U.S. CME interest rate futures showed an increased chance of rate cuts, stabilize Dow futures. But the market is focused on the US non-farm payrolls data could be just as weak today. Dow futures could cover their losses if U.S. non-farm payrolls and other data beat market expectations, easing trade frictions between the U.S. and Europe and improving investment sentiment lift stocks. Looking forward to next week's high-level trade talks between China and the United States, the investment climate is rising, which could bullish on the stock market.

 

BTCUSD:

9550 /10250 resistance

7960 / 7885 support

Dow future fell and gold price rose, the Bitcoin price would following. Technically, US7885 support is very important to support. If gold price keeping up, the bitcoin price following the trend. The first target 9550 or10250 resistance

 

Enjoy trading! The content is for reference only. Please do ensure that you understand the risk.