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ATFX Market Outlook, 2020 Feb 20

 

Personal opinions today: 

 

The FOMC minutes released its monetary policy, represented the U.S. economy grew modestly and would maintain a 2% inflation target this year and the interest rate policy is appropriate, but may be affected by the coronavirus, affecting the global economic growth. Rate cuts may be considered if the economic slowdown. The low-interest-rate policy and comments sent global stock markets, gold and oil prices higher. Separately, the U.S. reported earlier this morning that API crude stocks fell last week compared with the previous week, and OPEC and other members of the organization will discuss a cut in crude supply next month, boosting crude prices above $52.40 to $54.

 

As investors had anticipated the objectives of the FOMC minutes before, it would believe that the global equity markets, gold prices, and crude oil prices are limited and more likely adjustments. Please note!

 

In European trading today, Germany's Gfk consumer confidence index for March, Switzerland January trade account and UK January retail sales. Then, the ECB minutes to be watching and U.S. jobless claims last week. The Philadelphia fed's manufacturing index for February and the CB leading indicator for January were also key factors. These data represent volatility in global financial markets as a whole.

 

[Important financial data and events]

Note: * refers to the degree of importance

 

08:30 Australia unemployment rate **

09:30 China Loan Prime Rates ***

15:00 Germany Gfk consumer confidence index ***

15:00 Swiss trade account **

17:30 UK retail sales ***

19:00 UK CBI industrial orders difference *

20:30 ECB minutes ***

21:30 U.S. jobless claims change ***

21:30 U.S. Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index **

23:00 U.S. CB leading indicators *

24:00 US  EIA crude oil inventory change **

 

EURUSD 

1.0820/1.0830 resistance

1.0785/1.0775 support

Comments by ECB Chief economist and the euro zone's ZEW economic impact index in February were bearish for the euro. Tonight's release of the minutes of the European central bank's January monetary policy meeting is notable because it could boost the euro if the ECB says it has the right level of monetary policy and long-term funding and has no intention of cutting rates or expanding long-term funding. Recently, I mentioned to you that the institutional holdings of euro-dollar futures contracts have increased in the market. It is worth noting that euro-dollar could rebound. Yesterday, we estimated that the euro may recover some of its losses against the dollar after the release of the minutes of the fed's monetary policy meeting. Please stay tuned for resistance at 1.0830 or a possible 1.0855.

 

Pound to dollar

1.2955/1.2965 resistance

1.2905/1.2895 support

UK  CPI and the retail price fell in January after data showed the jobless claim rose. It could affect the UK retail sales data for January lower, which is bearish for the pound. The market is watching the UK manufacturing PMI for February tomorrow. It believes the pound will remain downward. Note, however, that the UK will be formally discussing a Brexit deal with the EU Brexit committee. Now investors fear a split or opposition in the debate, also bearish for the pound. But on the basis of past European commission attitudes, generally positive. If the EU accepts the UK Brexit deal, it could give pound reborn. The British pound could test significant resistance to $1.3120. Technically, now the pound may be reached on 1.2900 or to 1.28 level, suggest considering holding a long position and wait for the pound to rebound when reached the levels.

 

Australian dollar

0.6690/0.6700 resistance

0.6640/0.6630 support

The RBA minutes, reiterating that it was considering further interest rate cuts as a way to stimulate the economy. Separately, Australia's unemployment rate up to 5.3% in January as employment fell, further bearish the AU dollar. Fundamental and technical analysis changes, the AU dollar followed technical indicators, key resistance lower to 0.6700. Refer to the first target support bit 0.6630. Believe, this period of the AUDUSD continued to explore the low, also indirectly bearish New Zealand dollar.

 

Dollar to yen

111.45/111.55 resistance

110.65/110.55 support

The FOMC minutes, which showed that continued low-interest rates were more likely to be cut when needed, boosted the rally in global stock markets. Dow futures and the Nikkei index rose, with USDJPY. Suggest investor concern, Japan fiscal year is approaching, enterprise capital flows back to Japan, yen capital demand rises, the USDJPY this upward trend, may reverse at any time, trend adjustment. The preliminary recommended target level is 109 or 108. Currently, technical resistance is between 111.45 and 111.55.

 

USDCAD

1.3255/1.3265 resistance

1.3190/1.3180 support

Crude oil prices rose and the Canadian dollar gained, while the U.S. dollar fell to its recent target of 1.3210. Last night, the Canada CPI jump up. It was also a key factor. Yesterday, this analysis had expected the Canada CPI to rise in January, bullish the Canadian dollar. Next, believe investors focus on OPEC production meetings, continue to bullish oil prices, may indirectly bullish the Canadian dollar. Watch for U.S. jobs data and other U.S. data tonight to influence the Canadian dollar.

 

US crude oil futures

54.60/55.10 resistance

53.60/53.35 support

The U.S. economy is performing strongly, the federal reserve continues to keep monetary policy low and oil prices positive. Separately, OPEC offered to cut output and plans to meet on March 6 to discuss it. Oil prices are expected to stabilize for now. Technically, the price of crude oil will test $54, initially note whether the $54.60 resistance. if break, and then test $55.10. If crude oil price breaks $53.35 support, it is looking at $52.55.

 

Gold 

1612/1614 resistance

1600/1598 support

Monetary policy by the federal reserve, the European central bank and central Banks in Asia have generally maintained low-interest rates and loose monetary policy. In addition, the Fed reduced its bond purchases, investors avoided a sharp correction in Dow futures, and safe-haven money flowed into gold, which rose above $1,600. After the release of minutes of the FOMC, investors widely expected. That is expected to limit gold price gains and could reverse. But investors are mindful that gold prices continue to rise if Dow futures fall. Technical critical resistance, $1620 and $1625, respectively. Today's U.S. jobless claims as one of the volatile factors for Dow futures.

 

U.S. Dow Jones industrial average futures US30

29480/29550 resistance

29180/29080 support

After the Federal Reserve announced to reduce the size of the purchase of bonds, reducing the market liquidity, adverse financial markets, Dow futures fell. But the FOMC minutes mentioned keeping the low-interest rate policy, positive investment climate. However, the global economy still showed no signs of recovery in the first quarter, believed to limit Dow futures gains. Today's U.S. jobless claims as one of the volatile factors for Dow futures. For now, it is recommended to pay attention to 29,550 resistance and 29,080 support.

 

BTCUSD:

9880/ 10055 resistance

9350 / 9150 support  Investors worried the federal reserve to reduce the size of the purchase of bonds, the market liquidity reducing, affecting the financial markets and US economic growth. During the Down future rose before FOMC minutes, the bitcoin test lower price.