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ATFX Market Outlook, 2020 Mar 2

 

Personal opinions today: 

 

Dow futures and crude oil prices fell last week, rivalling the biggest weekly drop since 2018. In addition, the global economic slowdown and the global stock market fell, part of the capital into the yen as a safe haven. Also with the approaching of the Japanese fiscal year settlement, enterprises repatriate funds to Japan, accelerating the demand for yen funds, and the yen appreciated substantially. After falling to 107 last week, the dollar fell as low as 107.35 in early Asian trading today, lower than last week's low of 107.50. Gold prices may still have room to rise as safe-haven demand picks up. After Friday's correction, gold traded as low as $1, 575 in early Asian trading today. Gold price is still expected to trade at $1,650 on fundamentals and safe-haven demand.

 

[Important financial data and events]

Note: * refers to the degree of importance

 

09:30 China manufacturing PMI in February ***

16:50 France manufacturing PMI final for February **

16:55 Germany manufacturing PMI final for February ***

17:00 Eurozone manufacturing PMI final for February ***

17:30 UK manufacturing PMI for February ***

22:45 U.S. Markit manufacturing PMI final for February ***

23:00 U.S. Construction spending in January **

23:00 U.S. ISM manufacturing PMI for February **

 

EURUSD

1.1085/1.1100 resistance

1.1035/1.1020 support

Investors estimate that the federal reserve may cut interest rates as soon as the March meeting, the U.S. Treasury yields hang upside down, meaning short-term downside risks to the U.S. economy, the dollar fell, indirectly making the euro rise against the dollar. In European trading today, Germany and the Eurozone released their manufacturing PMI final readings for February. In U.S. trading, the final reading of the Markit and ISM manufacturing PMI for February was released. The euro could test resistance at $1.1100 if German and Eurozone data outpace forecasts for German and U.S. growth. In addition, a final reading of the U.S. Markit and ISM manufacturing PMI in February that beat market expectations could limit the euro's gains against the dollar, making it more likely to fall.

 

Pound to dollar

1.2860/1.2900 resistance

1.2760/1.2720 support

The British government will today formally discuss the Brexit deal with the European Union's Brexit committee, after the British prime minister mentions on the terms of the deal last week and threatened not to worry about the risk of a hard Brexit, betting the future of the British economy on the Brexit negotiations and bearish on the pound. Meanwhile, the new chancellor of the exchequer is due to unveil the UK's fiscal framework as markets wait to see if the budget will be strengthened to boost the economy. Expect any good and bad news in the short term and watch the pound move. Provisional technical volatility estimates put the pound between $1.2720 and $1.2900.

 

Australian dollar

0.6555/0.6565 resistance

0.6465/0.6450 support

A slowdown in global commodity consumption and manufacturing is hurting Australia's export and earnings. The spread of the outbreak, the RBA has said interest rates, believe continue to be bearish Australian dollar. Tomorrow, the RBA announced interest rate, whether or when to cut rates will be the focus. Believe that the Australian dollar after the announcement of the outcome of the meeting, the trend is gradually stable. It is estimated to be at $0.64 in the short term, with initial support, but the rebound range can be limited below $0.66.

 

Dollar to yen

108.35/108.45 resistance

107.45/107.35 support

The recent global economic performance is weak, the global stock market falls, some funds into the yen. In addition, Japan's fiscal year will be the end of the business capital repatriation to Japan, the yen capital demand slowly rise. It is believed that the USDJPY ill maintain its trend during March, with preliminary estimates of a possible test to the 106 level. If global stocks continue to fall and U.S. economic data remains weak, it could accelerate to the 106 level target or could see significant support from the 2019 low of 104.45.

 

USDCAD 

1.3435/1.3445 resistance

1.3335/1.3325 support

On this coming Friday, OPEC and energy ministers met to discuss a deal to cut output, which is expected to stabilize crude prices. The Canadian dollar is expected to rise if oil prices rebound. Technically, the oil price is expected to fall and the dollar/Canadian dollar is expected to peak at 1.34, heading lower towards the 1.32 level.

 

US crude oil futures

47.30/47.65 resistance

43.85/43.55 support

The downbeat outlook for the global economy has depressed demand for crude oil, bearish on crude oil prices. On coming Friday's meeting between OPEC and energy ministers is expected to speed up the announcement of a joint production cut, crude prices and provide a chance for a rebound. Crude could hit the $52 target if production cuts become more likely.

 

Gold

1625/1628 resistance

1580/1578 support

In Asian trading today, global stock markets rebounded from low and gold prices fell. But Asian stock markets rallied after China manufacturing PMI was released in February. But global stocks are expected to remain weak on the back of U.S. and European economic data. Gold prices still have room to look up.

 

U.S. Dow Jones industrial average futures US30

26205/26395 resistance

24990/24665 support

Dow futures fell more than 4,000 points amid uncertainty about the global economy. Technically, Dow futures absorb 61.8% of the overall 2019 gain to 24,665 support. For now, it's important to keep an eye on the development of global pneumonia, and more on what the U.S. President, federal reserve officials say and tonight's U.S. manufacturing PMI data for February could do to lift stocks.

 

BTCUSD:

9085 / 9245 resistance

8250 / 8155 support 

Unexpected market demand declined in cryptocurrencies, the bitcoin price fell sharply after investors worry about the coronavirus spread. Most cryptocurrencies price fell and transfer to the traditional hedge market. Technically, the important support at $8250. If it fails to support, the price would test $7000 or $6500.

 

Enjoy trading! The content is for reference only. Please do ensure that you understand the risk.

 

 

Registered Australian Accountant/ Certified Professional Manager / Certified Financial Advisor Experienced Investor / Media Market Commentator Martin Lam has Over 17 years’ experience in global investment market. Familiar with the worldwide stock indices, precious metals such Gold and Silver, Crude oil and Forex. He operated Martin Currency Trading Company and had partnership with a number of well-known international financial corporations and institutions. Before he join ATFX, he was TeleTrade Greater China development and Sales Director. Mr. Lam attends Hong Kong Now TV and China CCTV finance channel once a week. He also had regularly invited by different media, such as DBC Digital Financial Channel, Hong Kong Economic Times, The Standard, Ming Pao to share his experience to trade in Forex, Precious metals, Crude oil and worldwide stock indices