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ATFX Market Outlook, 2020 Mar 12

 

Personal opinions today: 

 

The British pound fell sharply yesterday after the Bank of England abruptly cut interest rates by 50 basis points to 0.25% ahead of its formal meeting. The European Central Bank announced its decision on interest rates tonight, followed by a press conference by its President Christine Lagarde. The ECB could take aggressive action to cut interest rates or introduce any stimulus fiscal policy, bearish for the Euro and other European currencies such as the Swiss franc.

 

This morning, US President Trump announced an $8 billion anti-epidemic measure to temporarily restrict access to the US from Europe. Any relief measures will be announced at any time and more preferential policies for enterprises. Relevant policies may increase the fiscal burden on the United States and harm the dollar assets, but relevant measures to benefit the people and enterprises are expected to protect the economy and create many jobs. What is more important is to stabilize financial markets and avoid a reaction like the 2008 U.S. financial crisis.

 

In addition, the main focus of the market today, the US initial claims. These jobless claims are likely to rise as a new pneumonia outbreak in the U.S. and around the world severely affects the global economy.

 

[Important financial data and events to watch]

Note: * denotes importance

 

18:00 Eurozone industrial output in January **

20:30 U.S. PPI for February * *

20:30 U.S. Jobless claims * * *

20:30 Canada new home price index in February * *

20:45 ECB interest rate decision * * *

21:30 ECB President holds a press conference * * *

 

EURUSD 

1.1340/1.1350 resistance

1.1255/1.1245 support

In the evening, the ECB interest rates decision, and investors thought it might follow the federal reserve and the Bank of England in cutting interest rates and other measures to weaken the EURUSD. If the rate cut is greater than 0.2% or the TLTRO scale doubles, the Euro declined. Technically, the Euro moved to a target of $1.1245. If it falls further, watch for the next level of support 1.1200. U.S. weekly jobless claims data will be in the spotlight tonight, it may affect the dollar and Euro.

 

The pound to the dollar

1.2960/1.2975 resistance

1.2775/1.2765 support

The British pound fell yesterday as the Bank of England abruptly cut interest rates by 50 basis points to 0.25% ahead of its formal meeting. After that, the new chancellor of the exchequer will introduce measures to stimulate the economy, but only up to a point. In the end, the pound stopped at $1.2975. The US President's announcement today of $8 billion in anti-epidemic measures and measures to stimulate the economy is expected to affect the dollar, the British pound is expected to be supported at 1.28 to 1.27.

 

Australian dollar to the dollar

0.6505/0.6515 resistance

0.6415/0.6405 support

Global new pneumonia epidemic, affecting the economy. Industrial metal exports to Australia, economic losses were not assessed, a bearish for the Australian dollar. Technical trend, the $0.6525 support lost, it is estimated that the decline continues, is on the watch for important support level 0.6455, more likely next trial correction 73% around 0.6405 support.

 

Dollar to Japanese yen

103.95/104.20 resistance

102.85/102.70 support

Dow futures fell more than 1,000 points, the Nikkei followed suit and the dollar fell to 103 yen. Investors were unnerved by the President's comments and the anti-epidemic response, worried that the risk of an outbreak in the United States could not be underestimated. In Asia, Dow futures fell, the Nikkei index fell more than 800 points and the dollar fell from 104 to 103 yen. We must now closely watch the global stock market movements, how the dollar against the yen.

 

US dollar to Canadian dollar

1.3850/1.3860 resistance

1.3760/1.3750 support

A new pneumonia outbreak has spread, the number increasing in Americans, economic activity has weakened and Canada's export economy has suffered. Combined with slowing investor demand for crude, the dollar hit a 2017 high of 1.38 against the Canadian dollar. If crude falls, the U.S. dollar could see resistance to $1.3860 against the Canadian dollar as high as $1.39.

 

US crude oil futures

33.80/34.25 resistance

30.15/29.85 support

The epidemic has spread around the world has not stopped, the cooling of investment sentiment, more important impact on international trade and global production, oil demand is falling, bearish crude oil prices. Current estimates suggest U.S. crude could test $30 or $29 range.

 

Gold 

1660/1663 resistance

1630/1628 support

Believing that treasury yields, corporate bonds yields and even the value of equities are more attractive than the gold prices. Investors expect that the rise in gold prices will be limited, the money will be withdrawn from the gold market, and gold prices will fall. Of course, the current epidemic is not over, risky equity investments have a certain degree of risk, the gold price is not expected to fall all of a sudden. Technically, $1,625 has significant support and $1,680 is significant resistance.

 

Dow Jones industrial average futures US30

22805/23320 resistance

22135/21630 support

The epidemic has spread around the world and the number of cases in the United States is on the rise. The U.S. President has abruptly reintroduced measures to stimulate the economy, hoping to boost the economy and the stock market. But the sudden action has unnerved investors again. Dow futures fell, breaching support at 22,805. Target Dow futures are likely to test end-2018 lows near 21630 support. Keeping a close eye on the U.S. outbreak, Dow futures could rebound if it improves and the number of infections declines.

 

BTCUSD:

8000/ 8350 resistance

7500 / 7400 support 

Investors are worried about the spread of a new pandemic, affecting the economy. The stock fell sharply, Cryptocurrencies investors drawback fund, the bitcoin price fell sharply. Hopefully, the stock market going stable, then the cryptocurrencies demand increased, then the bitcoin price would rebound.