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ATFX Market Outlook, 2020 Mar 13

 

Personal opinions today: 

 

The spread of new coronavirus around the world and an increase in cases in the United States and Europe have hit a wide range of industries, leading to an expected plunge in corporate profits and a rise in risk aversion. Dow futures fell more than 2,000 points yesterday, global stocks followed. The federal reserve's renewed efforts to buy back Treasury securities did little to ease sentiment last night. But Asia today after the market opened low, followed by buying. If today before the weekend, investors lock in profits and cover short positions, global stocks have a chance to rebound. Especially in the Dow future. 

 

In addition, it is worth noting that the global economic weakness, the recent investment market has also reflected. Believe that before the weekend, investors may profit to close the position or because of the profit lock, short-covering is expected to be related to the currency and global stock market short term after the rise. The fall in gold prices is also likely to stabilize ahead of next week's announcements by the federal reserve and the bank of Japan, two central Banks, on interest rates.

 

[Important financial data and events to watch]

Note: * denotes importance

 

15:00 German CPI final reading in February * * *

15:45 French CPI in February * *

20:00 Bank of England minutes * * *

20:30 U.S. Import price index for February *

22:00 U.S. Michigan consumer sentiment preliminary * * *

 

EURUSD

1.1230/1.1245 resistance

1.1090/1.1075 support

The Euro fell against the dollar last night after the ECB remained the interest rates unchanged but TLTRO doubled. Technically, the EURUSD broke 1.1200 support, which was one of the key support levels and had been as low as 1.1060. Technical indicators for moving averages point to a downward trend, and if the 10-day average resistance to 1.1230 fails to break through and the downward trend continues, you will look down at 1.1090 or 1.1075 support. Between European and U.S. markets, the EURUSD is expected to hover between $1.1150 and $1.1200. Look for a breakthrough after the U.S. trading hour starts.

 

British pound to the dollar

1.2675/1.2700 resistance

1.2475/1.2455 support

The Bank of England suddenly cut interest rates before the formal meeting, coupled with the investment climate is not clear, pound broke the 1.27 level of support, technical resistance to 1.2700. Believe that the pound will continue to be bearish tonight following the Bank of England minutes. Reference support between 1.2475 and 1.2455, important support to 1.2370.

 

Australian dollar/US dollar

0.6335/0.6345 resistance

0.6250/0.6240 support

Global new pneumonia epidemic, affecting the economy. The fall in industrial metals prices and the impact on Australia's export earnings made it difficult to assess the economic losses in the first and second quarters. Investor confidence and a bearish for the Australian dollar. Technical action, the AUDUSD touched 0.6250 support. If the support level is lost, the next support level is 0.6015.

 

Dollar to Japanese yen

105.25/105.45 resistance

103.85/103.65 support

Dow futures are down more than 2,000 points, the Nikkei is also down, and the dollar has a chance of falling to 103 against the yen. However, if the trend of the global stock market continues to fall, the short position of yen futures contract close, the dollar-yen trend is also difficult to avoid the next test 103.

 

US dollar/Canadian dollar

1.3985/1.4020 resistance

1.3860/1.3850 support

A new pneumonia outbreak has spread, the number of Americans infected has increased, economic activity has weakened and Canada's export economy has suffered. Coupled with a slowdown in investor demand for crude oil, bearish crude oil prices, indirectly bearish the Canadian dollar. The U.S. dollar has reached $1.39 against the Canadian dollar amid uncertainty over the outlook for the Canadian economy as crude oil prices fell. Technically, 1.3985 and 1.4020 are estimated as initial target resistance. The upper resistance targets are 1.4125 and 1.4180. Keep an eye on the impact of crude oil prices on the Canadian dollar.

 

US crude oil futures

33.80/34.25 resistance

30.15/29.85 support

The new pneumonia epidemic has not stopped, bear investment sentiment, more important impact on global trade and production, oil demand slowdown. In addition, OPEC continues to increase production and price war, bearish crude oil prices. US crude oil futures are now expected to try another $30 or $29 range before buying led to a rebound in prices.

 

Gold

1584/1588 resistance

1544/1540 support

The U.S. President announced an emergency fund against coronavirus and boost the economy. Fed also increasing the fund to repurchase Treasury bonds. With support for state bonds, corporate bonds and the relative attractiveness of equities at the moment, investors expect gold prices to rise only modestly and pull money out of the market, causing prices to fall. Gold market fluctuation recently, wave amplitude is bigger, pay attention to risk management! Estimates range between $1,550 and $1,574 between European and U.S. markets.

 

Dow Jones industrial average futures US30

21630/22135 resistance

20350/19750 support

The rising number of new cases of coronavirus in the United States, which the world health organization said was escalating into a "global pandemic," has renewed investor unease. Dow futures extended losses after the disappointment that the U.S. President's sudden offer of stimulus measures aimed at boosting the economy and the stock market. Fed also took action as well. Technically, Dow’s future from year 2018 to February this year, the adjusted wave 111% breakthrough, the next level support 123%, the target is 19,750. Of course, there could be a weekend unwind effect tonight. If the short position cover touch, rebound the first level resistance 21630, and then the superior target is 22135 resistance.

 

BTCUSD:

5500/ 5750 resistance

3750 / 3500 support 

Investors are worried about the spread of a new pandemic, affecting the economy. The stock fell sharply, Cryptocurrencies investors drawback fund, the bitcoin price fell sharply. Hopefully, the stock market going stable, then the cryptocurrencies demand increased, then the bitcoin price would rebound.