• Bloomberg reported that Brazil is receiving its last batch of fertiliser from Russia before supplies plunge due to the Ukraine war. According to industry experts, dozens of Russian vessels laden with fertiliser are heading to Brazil with a final ship due for unloading on 5 May. After that, it is unknown where Brazil will get its supplies. The ships are carrying around 550,000 tonnes of fertiliser with nearly half transporting potash.

• According to Bloomberg, biodiesel consumption reached 2.5mil kilolitres (2.2mil tonnes) in Indonesia in 1Q2022. The total annual target is 10.1mil kilolitres (8.8mil tonnes). The Indonesia government projects annual biodiesel consumption to be 10mil to 11.6mil kilolitres (8.7mil to 10.1mil tonnes) from 2023F to 2025F. Biodiesel consumption was 9.28mil kilolitres (8.1mil tonnes) in 2021.

• It was also reported that the Biden administration has cancelled previously granted waivers for 2018’s biodiesel blending requirements for 31 refineries. But, the administration also said that it will not require the facilities to buy compliance credits to fulfil the quotas. Under the EPA’s (Environmental Protection Agency) plan, the affected refineries can fulfil their obligations by resubmitting annual compliance reports for 2018.

• The USDA has released its monthly demand and supply projections for vegetable oils. The USDA has reduced its forecast of ending US soybean inventory for 2021/2022F to 260mil from 285mil bushels on the back of higher exports. US soybean exports are now estimated to be higher at 2,115mil bushels in 2021/2022F vs. 2,090mil bushels previously. Comparing 2021/2022F against 2020/2021, US soybean inventory is expected to inch up to 260mil from 257mil bushels.

• The USDA has also tweaked its forecast of global soybean inventory downwards by 0.5% to 89.6mil tonnes for 2021/2022F due to lower production in Brazil. Soybean output in Brazil is now anticipated to be 125mil tonnes vs. 127mil tonnes previously. Comparing 2021/2022F against 2020/2021, world soybean inventory is envisaged to decline by 13.2% to 89.6mil tonnes while soybean production is forecast to fall by 4.7% to 350.7mil tonnes.

• The Jakarta Post reported that a Jakarta-based public health think tank is making an urgent appeal for the government to impose excise taxes on all packaged sugar beverages flooding the market to mitigate the prevalence of diabetes and swelling healthcare spending for obesity-related diseases. Some studies have suggested that imposing an excise tax of Rp5,000 (US$0.35) per litre on sugary drinks could prevent between 12,000 and 417,000 cases of obesity in Indonesia in the next 25 years and around 63,000 to 1.4mil cases of Type 2 diabetes.

Source: AmInvest Research - 18 Apr 2022