The US  

The economic data will be quiet with Fed’s officials are in a blackout period ahead of their final policy meeting next week. We maintain our view of a 50bps hike in this meeting as economic data are gradually showing mixed results.  

Focus now will be on the ISM non-manufacturing PMI for the month of November. It is expected to fall to 53.1, from October’s reading of 54.4, which will be the lowest level since May 2020 with decline reported across the components.  

Australia  

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) will be meeting tomorrow for its final policy meeting of the year. We are expecting RBA to hike its cash rate by smaller pace 25ps to 3.10%, in line with market’s forecast.  

We expect RBA to continue focusing on bringing down inflation to the 2-3% target range while engineering soft landing by raising the interest rate by 25bps instead of 50bps. The most recent inflation data showed it is easing from its peak at 7.3% y/y in September to 6.9% y/y in October 2022.  

Malaysia  

On the data front, it would be the distributive trades where we are expecting a 19% - 21% annual growth rate for October 2022, after posting 23.9% y/y in September 2022. It will be driven mainly by retail trade and motor vehicles sales as well as low base support.  

With low base effects dissipate, we project the 4Q22 will grow at a decent pace of around 8.0%, which will bring the full year average growth to around 9.0%.

Source: AmInvest Research - 5 Dec 2022