Syndicate Club

Learn How to be sydincate: Random Walks & Other Misconceptions

Speculator101
Publish date: Mon, 13 Apr 2015, 09:32 PM
The stock market revolves around the simple principles of accumulation and distribution, which are
processes that are not well known to most traders.
Perhaps you can now appreciate the unique position that the market-makers, syndicate traders, and other
specialist traders are in – they can see both sides of the market at the same time, which represents a
significant advantage over the ordinary trader.
To most people, the sudden moves seen in the stock market are a mystery. Movements seem to be
heavily influenced by news and appear when least expected; the market usually does the exact
opposite to what it looks like it should be doing, or what your gut feeling tells you it ought to be doing.
Sudden moves take place that appear to have little to do with logic: We sometimes observe bear
markets in times of financial success, and strong bull markets in the depths of recession.
It seems a place for gamblers, or for those people that work in the City, or on Wall St – who must
surely know exactly what is going on! This is a fallacy. If you can take a little time to understand the
contents of this book, the heavy burden of confusion will be removed from you forever. The stock
market is not difficult to follow if you can read charts correctly, as a top professional would. You’ll
understand exactly how to recognise the definitive moments of market action, and the sorts of preemptive
signs to look out for, just before a market rises or falls. You’ll know how a bull market is
created, and also the cause of a bear market. Most of all you will begin to understand how to make
money from your new-found knowledge.
The markets are certainly complex – so complex, in fact, that it has been seriously suggested that they
move at random. Certainly, there is a suggestion of randomness in the appearance of the charts,
irrespective of whether you are looking at stocks or commodities. I suspect however, that those who
describe market activity as ‘random’ are simply using the term loosely, and what they really mean is
that movements are chaotic. Chaos is not quite the same thing as randomness. In a chaotic system
there may be hundreds, or even thousands of variables, each having a bearing on the other. Chaotic
systems may appear unpredictable, but as computing technology advances, we will start to find order,
where before we saw randomness. Without doubt, it is possible to predict the movements of the
financial markets, and as technology advances, we will become better at it. There is an enormous gulf
between unpredictability and randomness.
Unless you have some idea of the various causes and effects in the markets, you will undoubtedly, and
frequently, be frustrated in your trading. Why did your favourite technical tool, which worked for
months, not work "this time" when it really counted? How come your very accurate and detailed
fundamental analysis of the performance of XYZ Industries failed to predict the big slide in price two
days after you bought 2,000 shares in it?
The stock market appears confusing and complicated, but it is most definitely based on logic. Like any
other free market place, prices in the financial markets are controlled by supply and demand – this is
no great secret. However, the laws of supply and demand, as observed in the markets, do not behave
as one would expect. To be an effective trader, there is a great need to understand how supply and
demand can be interpreted under different market conditions, and how you can take advantage of this
knowledge.
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